Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KSilver2000]

If it does everything it’s promised to do (600 mile range, 1.x 0-60, 250+mph top speed, no battery cooling issues, $200k price tag), 10k per year wont be nearly enough to satisfy demand.

Between McLaren, Ferrari, Lamborghini, Bentley, there were only about 30k cars sold globally last year. You’re saying Tesla is going to sell >10,000 Roadsters per year? Really?
I’m not even sure you can get a fraction of those buyers to buy the Roadster because....Tesla is a mainstream brand with cheap $35K cars. HNW and UHNW people don’t want that.

How have the sales of NSX and LFA done?

Edit: It may help if Tesla were to create a new sub brand just for the Roadster with completely distinct sales and service depts.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

To put it more succinctly: with margin, you pay interest. With calls, you pay theta. Either way, you pay for amplifying the motion of the stock, beyond taking on the risk of amplifying negative movements.

True, but not quite comprehensive. You could sell short puts secured by stock you have, in which case you pay only with your nerves.
And the risk of amplifying negative movements, margin calls if you are agressive etc..
For example, I've sold few $280 dec puts which give me tiny time-value, plus opportunity to participate in some upside, though delta is not quite 100%. Secured by cash though... small part of my overall portfolio...
Not a strategy I'd recommend to a lot of people, but for those using margin regularly, you save on interest fees, and/or time-value.

 

[Artful Dodger]

...my best story is about the shares I bought at $30.

Temba, his arms open?

Cheers!

 

[The Blue Owl]

Someone who wants to stand on the shoulders of others is someone who wants to be in the limelight without having done any of the work. That’s my definition anyway.

The point you made in your post is consistent to your definition, however, this phrase has ancient origins and its meaning is in accord with @neroden's usage.

(Contrary to what is commonly assumed, Isaac Newton did not coin the phrase, but his statement is probably the most well-known: "If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.")

 

[EVNow]

$251,136,000 in net profit. Stupendously unlikely. Expect the S&P 500 addition after Q1 next year.

100k 3s and 25k s+x deliveries with 22% margin.

 

[anthonyj]

$251,136,000 in net profit. Stupendously unlikely. Expect the S&P 500 addition after Q1 next year.

Record deliveries, partial FSD revenue realization, and Fiat credit might do it... Prob not but it’s nice to dream

 

[EVNow]

My average is now around $210 (after massively expanding my position size), but my best story is about the shares I bought at $30.

I almost sold at $30, after a nice profit

 

[samk579]

BC EV sales have always been an enigma to me. Vancouver is a Seattle sized city, fairly similar in a lot of ways. Yet the BC sales have been much lower than Washington's, even though gas is costlier there. One reason ofcourse was the federal ax credit we had. So, it would be interesting to see how much BC EV sales improve now that they have better incentives than us.

There's definitely going to be more sales if it's $40,000 CAD and not $40,000 USD. We have to wait a while for our currency to be at parity. Seattle pay less income tax and have higher salary. They can save more money per month than us.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I would expect Enhanced Summon to perform poorly at first (like Nav on Autopilot). This will mitigate the WOW factor, and thus any big stock bump. I would then expect it to improve quickly, but the initial reaction will have dulled.

The only analogy I can think of is the frog in the boiling water analogy. All of these factors don’t quite add up to a step change and leave just enough room for doubt and FUD for the frogs (and by frogs I mean shorts) to boil

I do expect it to do well because of all the delays and with Elon personally testing it a couple weeks ago. Some will encounter snags here and there like any other Tesla upgrade. But "poorly" - doubt that.

 

[EVNow]

I do expect it to do well because of all the delays and with Elon personally testing it a couple weeks ago. Some will encounter snags here and there like any other Tesla upgrade. But "poorly" - doubt that.

Actually, it will do "poorly". Because anything less than an avg human would be considered poorly by most people.

For eg., in the video posted, the car just cut across a number of empty parking slots. People would consider that poor.

 

[MP3Mike]

For eg., in the video posted, the car just cut across a number of empty parking slots. People would consider that poor.

But yet I see people do that every day...

 

[dc_h]

Where are the moderators! Sorry but I don’t care about anyone’s politics, unless it’s Luddite Tesla bashing politics (I’m against). I see no darn reason for Tesla fans to go out of there way to try to keep Tesla to their personal political creed and deny Tesla’s to conservatives or liberals and antifa or whatever. You’re just pissing off at least half the people we need on board for an electric sustainable future.
I got into sustainable energy 30+ years ago trying to understand how the miracle of a middle class life can be brought to 7+ billion people without destroying the planet for human habitation.

If anyone wants to write a poem to trumps greatness or how awesomely Bernie or Hillary or genghis khan is, please find a forum where these subjects are the stated area of focus. For this forum please keep your penis out of my face. You’re all smart, I get it, but that doesn’t make you the and more importantly my source of universal truth.

 

[dc_h]

Q2 numbers are pretty much set at 7k now for China* unless there’s inventory in China , with an additional 1k+/- to Japan.

To me its more of a question for Q3, you are looking at 10,072 3’s sent to China in Q1 versus maybe 4,000 in Q2. If you are the biggest bull in the world that’s got to make you question Chinese demand going forward into Q3, which is why I asked the question to Mars Emperor about how he views the Tesla brand in China

*edit this assumes there’s no inventory. If there’s inventory it still implies weaker sales of higher end margin to China.

Do you have a source for your data?

 

[KSilver2000]

Respectfully, I think this statement is seriously wide of the mark. Even if true, it wouldn't apply to a product whose technology allows it to improve itself via over-the-air update. Maybe it applies to something, but I don't see application to current Tesla vehicles. In fact, the oppose is true.

Respectfully, I disagree.
My Apple and Windows computers, nor any of my other technology items (ie. iPhone, Pixel, iPad, webcams, TV, server, etc) that receive OTA software updates for making the UI and UX better do not appreciate in price. In fact, the very opposite.
To think Tesla cars will really appreciate in price over time as Musk says is silly. Although, my insurer would likely love for that to happen.
If that really is true, it would be in best interest of everyone to buy Tesla cars and keep it in the garage instead of being concerned with TSLA. It would benefit Tesla directly as well.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Do you have a source for your data?

My China numbers come from the Citi China auto import thing posted in here a while back, check the quarterly thread.

 

[dqd88]

Super roughly, it predicts a really bad July in the US. The only people buying Teslas in July in the US will be people who weren't paying attention to the tax credit.
There will be a weak August in the US for Model 3 but S & X should be back to normal by then. Everything should be back to normal by September.

I think the EU and RHD deliveries could offset all of it for Q3 wince the backlog is so long, but many of those deliveries may well arrive in August.

I'm assuming Tesla will lower prices a bit in July to let buyers split the difference between tax credit gap. Also, I think for some people the credit gap (between June/July) doesn't move the needle that much. For me it doesn't but maybe I'm the exception. The timing of my next car purchase is based on when my current lease ends (which is early Nov). So I plan to buy in Sep or Oct. The tax credit doesn't affect my decision (but maybe that's dumb on my part, idk. I just find the savings amount rather immaterial. Now $7k is material yes). A lot of people also clip coupons, but I don't, I hate them.
I think you're right about the other EU deliveries. Also, are there any markets where they haven't released the 3 at all yet? Is there a separate thread discussing that?

 

[kbM3]

Respectfully, I disagree.
My Apple and Windows computers, nor any of my other technology items (ie. iPhone, Pixel, iPad, webcams, TV, server, etc) that receive OTA software updates for making the UI and UX better do not appreciate in price. In fact, the very opposite.
To think Tesla cars will really appreciate in price over time as Musk says is silly. Although, my insurer would likely love for that to happen.
If that really is true, it would be in best interest of everyone to buy Tesla cars and keep it in the garage instead of being concerned with TSLA. It would benefit Tesla directly as well.

Tesla appreciation is based on the value they would have if Tesla were to have an autonomous robo-taxi monopoly.

 

[JusRelax]

Advance summon???

I'm imagining a guy with one phone/device that scans the VINs of each of the Teslas in a huge rectangle with his professional version of the Tesla App, and then pressing the 'forward' button to mass-command all the Teslas to move forward on the boat.... that would be amazing.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Also, are there any markets where they haven't released the 3 at all yet? Is there a separate thread discussing that?

Compared to where the S/X operate in? I think its pretty much everywhere now, but some RHD countries abroad like Australia, NZ, UK, etc can only get SR+ and Performance.

 

[EVNow]

But yet I see people do that every day...

True - but, people expect machines to follow rules (unlike people). People will expect FSD cars to stop at stop signs, for eg.