Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Analyst update from Tesla mega bull Ben Kallo:

Tesla (TSLA) Volume Update Could Make Shareholder Meeting Into Positive Catalyst - Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $340.00 price target on Tesla ahead of its shareholder...

From 'theFly':

'Tesla will host its annual shareholder meeting on June 11 and any update regarding deliveries/demand could be a positive share catalyst, Baird analyst Ben Kallo tells investors in a research note. Based on leaked delivery numbers, the company appears to be on track to meet volume guidance, adds the analyst. He believes the shares will move higher if Tesla achieves its targets. Further, Kallo continues to think concerns over Tesla demand are overblown and he remains a buyer of the stock at current levels. Saying the annual meeting could help further improve sentiment, the analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on Tesla with a $340 price target. The stock closed Friday down $1.45 to $204.50.'

 

[Drax7]

Elon is tweeting a lot less these days. Is that good or bad according to the factchecking variety of counterfactual history.. nevermind I already know.

The more tweeting time should imply fewer urgent problems to allocate mind share.

 

[Boomer19]

NY Times at it again with with Neal Boudette given free reign to dump on Tesla at the expense of actual reporting.

First, he rolls up all the click bait articles from the week:

Tesla, Facing Setbacks and Skeptics, Tries to Get Back on Course

Then, he carves out Tesla from the world of self driving, as if its cars on the road now changing lanes and taking exits and its network of cars gobbling up data to fuel machine learning at a rate previously not seen, just don't exist:

Fiat Chrysler in Deal for Self-Driving Car Technology

"Fiat Chrysler is aligning with Aurora at a time when industry executives are acknowledging that it will probably take longer than previously believed to put autonomous vehicles on the road."

I guess Elon is now not an industry executive. Will someone let him know.

My faith in NY Times is being crushed with every Boudette article.

And note, I don't expect rah rah coverage from the Times on any company, but this is just ridiculous how they let this guy write every Tesla article, with the most negative, bury the positive, slant on it.

Between the Times and WSJ, no wonder every time I talk to someone in the New York area, they are surprised that Tesla actually has cars on the road.

faith in the new york times?
ehhh. just think, if they do that with tesla, then what else are they embellishing or outright lying about in their ‘journalism’. same goes for elsewhere.

sadly, we all have to assume caveat emptor at all times...
eyes up, head on swivel

 

[urarthur]

I'm amazed there isn't more chatter here or in the media about the shareholder meeting tomorrow. It has the same history of moving the stock as earnings reports. Last year investors were quite concerned, but at the shareholder meeting Musk gave good guidance for the 2nd half of the year and TSLA rallied 25% in about a week.

What I am hoping to hear about:

- Elon confirming Q2 guidance 90-100k
- Projecting Giga 3 production volume for 2020. Anything in the order of 10k/week by the end of 2020 would be huge.
- Update on Fremont/Giga 1 production estimates for 2020
- European Giga location and timeline
- Pickup announcement date
- Update on S refresh. I honestly don't think Model X refresh would happen so soon and at the same time as Model S.
- FSD timeline
- Update on Model 3 SR (dead or alive)
- Model Y reservation count
- China 2019 production already sold out, This will certainly help the Q3 imported sales.
- Maxwell tech in Model S refresh ( 1 million miles battery)
- unlikely but anything about Q2 profitability

I am not expecting so many good news at once. Elon is probably gonna save some dry powder for later.

 

[Singuy]

What I am hoping to hear about:

- Elon confirming Q2 guidance 90-100k
- Projecting Giga 3 production volume for 2020. Anything in the order of 10k/week by the end of 2020 would be huge.
- Update on Fremont/Giga 1 production estimates for 2020
- European Giga location and timeline
- Pickup announcement date
- Update on S refresh. I honestly don't think Model X refresh would happen so soon and at the same time as Model S.
- FSD timeline
- Update on Model 3 SR (dead or alive)
- Model Y reservation count
- China 2019 production already sold out
- Maxwell tech in Model S refresh ( 1 million miles battery)
- unlikely but anything about Q2 profitability

What I hope he doesn't spend time rambling on is the potential of the model 3 being an appreciating asset due to FSD making people money. We need him to guide a little closer to home this round with the stock as is. Save the aspirational stuff when the tough times have passed.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

faith in the new york times?
ehhh. just think, if they do that with tesla, then what else are they embellishing or outright lying about in their ‘journalism’. same goes for elsewhere.

sadly, we all have to assume caveat emptor at all times...
eyes up, head on swivel

It is always upsetting when we learn that a news source we always trusted, is just as manipulative and deceiving as all the rest. Plain and simple fact is that news outlets are run by humans, and humans can't help but letting either their agenda or their greed get in the way of truth.

I found this out the hard way right after I became a fan of Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

What I hope he doesn't spend time rambling on is the potential of the model 3 being an appreciating asset due to FSD making people money. We need him to guide a little closer to home this round with the stock as is. Save the aspirational stuff when the tough times have passed.

IMHO, he's talked too much about FSD recently; I hope he keeps it to a minimum. Some people are in love with the FSD concept, but the more he talks about it, the more nervous FSD-doubters get about Tesla's stock, as it makes it look like Tesla is betting its future on a tech that a lot of people don't believe will be ready any time soon, if ever - and even if successful, would be "future income", while today's stock concerns are about the near-term.

 

[KarenRei]

What I am hoping to hear about:

...
- European Giga location and timeline

IMHO, this has been almost completely absent from public discussion, but I think it's a very important thing for Tesla to bring up (regardless of how far along they are). I want the impression to be given that "This is something that we're working on, this is something that's going to happen, and not as some distant future project". Because if Trump ramps up trade-war pressure with Europe, I want Tesla to be able to say, "GF4 is already in progress; we're simply going to accelerate the schedule in response to this news".

 

[LN1_Casey]

IMHO, this has been almost completely absent from public discussion, but I think it's a very important thing for Tesla to bring up (regardless of how far along they are). I want the impression to be given that "This is something that we're working on, this is something that's going to happen, and not as some distant future project". Because if Trump ramps up trade-war pressure with Europe, I want Tesla to be able to say, "GF4 is already in progress; we're simply going to accelerate the schedule in response to this news".

Was it ever determined which country it was going to be built in? I know France was tossing some incentives. But Germany would be hilarious, as we take over their market like the BMW and Volkswagen has been doing to us.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just an fyi: diseconomies of scale means that costs increase as production increases. In our discussion we are talking about a reduction in economies of scale, I.e. costs increasing as production decreases.

Thanks for the correction!

 

[urarthur]

Was it ever determined which country it was going to be built in? I know France was tossing some incentives. But Germany would be hilarious, as we take over their market like the BMW and Volkswagen has been doing to us.

No, but I recall Elon saying Germany being likely. Being close to Tilburg (Netherlands) would make sense.
I see little chance for southern/northern Europe.

The absence of European Giga news is by far the biggest disappointment for me. Not sure what's holding them back. Trade war, demand expectations, Negotiations not working out well.. In late 2016 they were expecting to unveil European location in mid-2017.

 

[Mike Smith]

If there was ever a time Musk would want to reassure investors, it's now. Being down so sharply since the share offering is something he'll want to rectify. Remember that in the shareholder meeting, unlike earnings calls, Musk has near total control over the messaging. If things are actually looking positive, we're going to here all about it. I think shorts are insane to not have covered ahead of the meeting.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Nice to hear some cities are doing this - do you know which ones?
It would not surprise me if this gets moving very soon on a local level in the states.

Barcelona has areas, I think Paris has certain areas and someone on this board mentioned a city or town in Germany. I think holland also has restrictions planned.

 

[Mike Smith]

210.25 pre-market. This is becoming a daily ritual.

 

[sparcs]

210.25 pre-market. This is becoming a daily ritual.

mexico trade deal

 

[RoadsterPlease]

210 pre-market, great start to the week. I think there's a good chance we will see 220-230 by the end of the week.

All the FUD of the past weeks and downgrades by analysts turned out to be nothing but hot air, the depressed stock price below 200 was a great opportunity to go long.

 

[Singuy]

mexico trade deal

Roth Capital Upgrade to Buy from neutral, price target of $238

 

[LN1_Casey]

210.25 pre-market. This is becoming a daily ritual.

When I first checked this morning, it was down $1.50, then to $1, and now it's bouncing back. It also bounced green a few days of drops; I just learn to ignore premarket for this stock.

 

[mickificki]

IMHO, he's talked too much about FSD recently; I hope he keeps it to a minimum. Some people are in love with the FSD concept, but the more he talks about it, the more nervous FSD-doubters get about Tesla's stock, as it makes it look like Tesla is betting its future on a tech that a lot of people don't believe will be ready any time soon, if ever - and even if successful, would be "future income", while today's stock concerns are about the near-term.

Completely agree. I hope he keeps noise on fsd down.

I've tried to watch enhanced summon videos and so far they are very unimpressive. Slow AF (@SpaceCash where ya been?) and not accurate. Elon said it would blow people's minds but...sigh....

 

[urarthur]

I suspect the 210 resistance last week was from market makers pushing down to the max pain zone of 197-202 (quite successfully with limited volume). If we break 210, there is an 'air pocket' between 210-220, coupled with short covering going into the Tuesday's shaerholder meeting, I hope to see 220-225 by Wednesday.

I certainly do not expect any analyst to downgrade a day before material info will be available.