Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Roth Capital Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Buy

from 'TheFly':

'Tesla rating change Tesla upgraded to Buy on China demand at Roth Capital. As previously reported, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral, with a $238 price target, after meetings with major Chinese EV producers and relevant supply chain participants. While the analyst believes rising battery costs are likely to be a 2019 margin headwind, demand from China will likely be stronger than most anticipate, reducing the potential for lowered 2019 unit guidance. China Model 3 deliveries of 2,324 units in May, after the initial 259 deliveries in April, suggest a "credible" second half of 2019 ramp, Irwin contends.'

 

[SpaceCash]

Completely agree. I hope he keeps noise on fsd down.

I've tried to watch enhanced summon videos and so far they are very unimpressive. Slow AF (@SpaceCash where ya been?) and not accurate. Elon said it would blow people's minds but...sigh....

Oh ya know, just out transferring my money at the most ironic times possible.

 

[sparcs]

Roth Capital Upgrade to Buy from neutral, price target of $238

Interesting. There were two of them actually. Didn't see the one from last Friday either. There were so many downgrades that I didn't know of analysts left with positive sentiment. hah

Tesla analyst commentary at Piper Jaffray

Piper keeps $396 price target on Tesla after Model 3 analysis. Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter maintains an Overweight rating on Tesla with a $396 price target following an analysis of Model 3 demand. The company has lost ~40% of its market value since early 2019, thanks partially to declining investor confidence in the demand outlook, Potter tells investors in a research note. However, he thinks that of all the reasons to doubt his Overweight thesis, "weak demand is among the least convincing." The analyst's analysis establishes a base case Model 3 demand scenario of 170,000 units per year in the U.S. alone. Potter believes this is more than enough to support his forecast of 289,000 global deliveries in 2019, as well as Tesla's plans to expand global capacity to 500,000 units. "Importantly, it's also relatively easy to articulate a believable scenario in which U.S. Model 3 sales are nearly 2x higher than our base case," says the analyst.

Tesla rating change Tesla upgraded to Buy on China demand at Roth Capital.
As previously reported, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral, with a $238 price target, after meetings with major Chinese EV producers and relevant supply chain participants. While the analyst believes rising battery costs are likely to be a 2019 margin headwind, demand from China will likely be stronger than most anticipate, reducing the potential for lowered 2019 unit guidance. China Model 3 deliveries of 2,324 units in May, after the initial 259 deliveries in April, suggest a "credible" second half of 2019 ramp, Irwin contends.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla is optimizing for volume over profit. The question is why.

I think you need to go back and look at Tesla's mission statement again.

 

[RFernatt]

... Not sure what's holding them back. Trade war, demand expectations, Negotiations not working out well.. In late 2016 they were expecting to unveil European location in mid-2017.

In the back of my head, I still wonder if they're cooking up something with Fiat to use some pre-existing facility that can be quickly brought online. Not necessarily a JV, but would be interesting if they could make some kind of deal that might result in, I don't know, a production plant for M3/MY and an electrified delivery van since MB wasn't too keen on Musk's suggestion and Fiat is already importing them to the US as a Dodge product...

 

[urarthur]

At this point, SP near-term risk up until Q2 delivery figures, is mostly going to be macro related. Markets expectation of a FED cut next week is 80% when the stock market is 2-3% from ATH. I don't see this happening.

 

[brian45011]

Correct me if I'm wrong. If Tesla's doesn't make a profit, they don't pay any income taxes, so the credit is worthless.

Tesla uses variable interest entities to harvest the federal tax credits on direct leases. The credits are allocated to the limited partners (aka rich investors with tax liabilities). See note 14 on page 30 of the most recent 10Q.

 

[dc_h]

Thanks, I compared my figures for March/April and my source for France was incorrect, but most other countries are in line. June figures are a rough guess, but very plausible for NA/EU.

33k in NA is only 1100/day. Elon's leaked email said they already averaging 900 model 3's a day and pushing for 1000/day. That leaves 200 for S/X which shouldn't be a problem.

While theoretically possible it does imply we’re still in wave mode. That may be nice for the balance sheet on the day of the end of quarter, it doesn’t help cash flow and balances on average and reduces total delivery and logistics capacity. That Amazon clip of Bezos talking about being a growth stock vs a steady dividend and earnings stock should be taken to heart by Elon and Zach. It seems q1 was the quarter to take all the write downs and absorb the hangover of the tax credit change, so it’s hard to take another hit the following quarter, but it’s hard to see sticking with the wave up to 1 million cars a year. Maybe they wait to unwind the wave until Shanghai is online, but I’d like to see it end now, even if it gives shorts a day in the sun. They’ll get burned soon enough.
If they have demand for 20,000 a month for the rest of the year in the USA, I take back what I’ve said above. But if they sell even 30,000 in the USA in June and 10,000 in July, it seems like they are creating an unsustainable work environment, working big overtime one month and vacations or layoffs the next.

 

[Tslynk67]

Completely agree. I hope he keeps noise on fsd down.

I've tried to watch enhanced summon videos and so far they are very unimpressive. Slow AF (@SpaceCash where ya been?) and not accurate. Elon said it would blow people's minds but...sigh....

Well TBH, the utility of NoA is already amazing to most people and it works well.

But I do also think that L5 FSD is some way off, L4 could come relatively soon, at least for 99% of scenarios.

 

[UncaNed]

..

When I first checked this morning, it was down $1.50, then to $1, and now it's bouncing back. It also bounced green a few days of drops; I just learn to ignore premarket for this stock.

Dang! Wish I'd bought at $1!!

 

[Krugerrand]

It’s rather important to keep in mind that accuracy in prediction is the fundamental measure of intelligence. You are keen to provide explanations of events after they have happened. Most people are looking for comfort in their decisions and if they are long in Tesla you are a great masseuse of reality. For those of us that actually care about anticipating how things play out ahead of time you are pretty disposable. Sorry, just isn’t your thing. You would make a good educator though.

You would make a great jerk. Oh, wait...

 

[Mike Smith]

Shorts seem to be having trouble causing the morning dip today. Interesting.

 

[Krugerrand]

If you knew anything about the car industry, you'd realize that volume is the only choice, financially. They still might raise prices as more people learn about the cars and demand expands further, to reduce backlogs.

He doesn’t even have to know anything about the car industry, he’d simply have to be familiar with Tesla’s mission to know volume is what they’re aiming at - volume at a price point that eventually allows everyone who wants to own a car to own a car they can afford and for that car to be an EV.

 

[dc_h]

If

IMHO, he's talked too much about FSD recently; I hope he keeps it to a minimum. Some people are in love with the FSD concept, but the more he talks about it, the more nervous FSD-doubters get about Tesla's stock, as it makes it look like Tesla is betting its future on a tech that a lot of people don't believe will be ready any time soon, if ever - and even if successful, would be "future income", while today's stock concerns are about the near-term.

If they talk FSD, this would be an opportunity to let the team (Alex) or another leader talk about progress. The perception of elon’s Blind optimism mutes almost anything but actual deliveries. I’d like some affirmation that they are still on track, while everyone else has gotten farther from self driving in the last year. Waymo and GM were ready to go live this year and even in geo-fenced ares can’t go driverless.
If Elon doesn’t talk about it, or have the team talk about it, the spin would be that they’re downplaying due to delays. It would also be nice for owners to hear about AP 2 and 2.5 upgrades starting soon.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

My fundamental question is why Tesla doesn’t raise prices on sr about 2k$. Given the relative lack of profitability they are serving these cars up, a narrow increase like that which would result in fewer cars sold would still likely result in more profit overall.

It is clear they are going for volume. The question is whether it is logical.

My guess is profit would be better, but cash contribution much worse. I believe there is lots more than $2K in every marginal car cost (real cash, no depreciation) of production

 

[StealthP3D]

But Germany would be hilarious, as we take over their market like the BMW and Volkswagen has been doing to us.

That would have the obvious advantage of having plenty of skilled autoworkers who needed a job.

 

[KarenRei]

That would have the obvious advantage of having plenty of skilled autoworkers who needed a job.

Seems to be a lot of interest from Poland as well. They don't have the auto credentials of Germany, and perhaps a somewhat less stable political situation, but they seem more eager to attract Tesla, and it'd likely be cheaper / faster to build, and cheaper to operate, in Poland.

I can't imagine Tesla ever choosing France. They love strikes too much for Tesla's tastes. They're just as protectionist to their current auto industry as Germany is, with the French government owning a large stake in Renault. Etc. I just see nothing that would make them choose France.

It looks to me like a contest between Poland and Germany.

 

[sparcs]

Another analyst note:

Breaking News: TSLA latest news. - The Fly

DELIVERIES/DEMAND UPDATE COULD BE CATALYST: Tesla will host its annual shareholder meeting on June 11 and any update regarding deliveries/demand could be a positive share catalyst, Baird analyst Ben Kallo told investors in a research note of his own. The analyst pointed out that based on leaked delivery numbers, the company appears to be on track to meet volume guidance, and believes the shares will move higher if Tesla achieves its targets. Further, Kallo said he continues to think concerns over Tesla demand are overblown and that Model 3 demand is "underestimated." Additionally, Tesla continues to make progress on its China factory, and targets initial deliveries in 6-10 months, he highlighted. Saying the annual meeting could help further improve sentiment, the analyst reiterated an Outperform rating and a $340 price target on Tesla's shares.

 

[StealthP3D]

The perception of elon’s Blind optimism mutes almost anything but actual deliveries.

I agree that Elon Musk is widely viewed as an optimist.

I disagree that the general perception is that his optimism is blind. You have been in the shorts echo chamber too long. I think he is widely perceived as the modern era's "hands-on", "can do" forward thinking industrialist. A doer, not a dreamer. Can you think of anyone else who can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with him in this regard?

 

[LN1_Casey]

..

Dang! Wish I'd bought at $1!!

xD I know right? The mythical $1 TSLA.