Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

The image has nothing to do with facts, it has to do with what you are saying about yourself.
If you are being quite than everything that is left is what others are saying about you.

And that is just fine. Actions always speak louder than words to those who open their eyes.

No, we don’t need everyone to have open eyes. We just need enough eyes wide open people to tip the balance.

Nothing different is being said about Tesla now as was being said 5 years ago or 10 years ago. All the same stuff, all the same people, all the same kind of people. Didn’t stop Tesla then, won’t stop Tesla now.

Tesla is organically growing and growing fast.

 

[trailhound]

The "cat out of the bag" comment felt like they were hinting at complete vertical integration from mining to battery to car.
I have mixed feelings about this if true. I like having Panasonic on board making a product to Tesla specs. It reduces some risk but if they won't keep up that is a problem and obviously there is a cost to sub this out.
There was giddiness to the three on stage like we KNOW something you don't.

My take anyway- Nice to see Elon having fun and relaxed (no reefer in sight)

 

[Thekiwi]

That was a good Tesla meeting, despite the opportunity lost for more good Q&A by some truly awful monologues from some of the audience. (Seriously should have stuck to quick written questions)

Highlights:

- confirming on track for record deliveries this quarter, or “very close to it.”
- confirming GF3 is now having production equipment installed (Stamping press, Paint shop), with 150k units per year initial capacity target (~3000 per week), 500k+ medium/long term target.
- GF4 / Europe site hopefully sorted by year end
- battery / drivetrain investor day coming soon, including more details of maxwell tech.
- pick up reveal in “late summer”
- considering vertically integrating further by getting into mining (would be good to increase margins)
- open to new tactics to combat unbelievable level of FUD
- confident on Tesla Energy path
- Elon showing a good level of restraint on specific projections, gives the sense he has modified his approach.

 

[wipster]

Unfortunately the permits can still take a really long time.

Is that Tesla's fault? Damn, hard to have your cake and eat it too. At least you'll know they're working towards it.

 

[wipster]

A very simple FAQ page would solve a lot of problems...I could write the damn thing.

I think there are some posts on this forum that could just be quoted lock, stock, and barrel.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

You really don't want Tesla thumping its chest about Maxwell... even IF it was a bank robbery. Reason being, it will make the next battery tech acquisition that Tesla does a lot harder.

 

[sparcs]

- confirming GF3 is now having production equipment installed (Stamping press, Paint shop), with 150k units per year initial capacity target (~3000 per week), 500k+ medium/long term target.
-

this one in particular is important that they are starting to install real equipment. Seems like we are on track for Tesla's timelines for GF3.

There were rumors of some interior work being done at GF3, but there was no way we could figure out the exact work from construction workers.

 

[TradingInvest]

To sum it up....nothing.
Pretty much what anyone would say when they buy something with money.

Tesla rarely acquire companies. I bet they are very happy to be able to complete the Maxwell deal. It should help to reduce cost and make batteries better.

 

[ggr]

Except down every hill they go. Even a small undulation in the road generates a bit.

... which the battery absorbs perfectly well.

People say "just mate a SuperCap in front of the battery" as if that would be an easy thing to do. Capacitors in general have very different electrical characteristics from batteries.

 

[azaz]

What's so hard to understand?

If advertising increases demand, cars can be sold at a higher price or more costly versions can be sold. The increased revenue can then be used to expedite the introduction of new vehicles, accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy.

Is there anyone at Tesla willing to sit down and educate Elon on advertising? This seems like another topic that Elon doesn’t know much about and would do well to understand why advertising is so, so effective for the mostly part.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think it is interesting that no one is mentioning that Elon said that they have to complete another acquisition, and write some software, to get Tesla insurance up and running. What insurance related company are they going to be buying?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

He made a short reference to adapters that can be used with other networks. It probably wasn’t the right forum but I would have liked to hear more on this.

 

[KarenRei]

This. They're going to apply the dry electrode technology pretty much ASAP. We already know it makes the entire battery manfacturing process quicker, makes it take up less space in the factory, makes it use less energy, requires less chemicals, and makes batteries which are higher energy density. (Whew!) That's a lot of benefits.

Real question is the scaleup timeframe (I assume that they've already done enough small-scale testing to be confident in the tech). And whether they'l run in parallel to their solvent lines or perpendicular.

The Maxwell dry binder appears to be ultrafine PTFE powder. Unless there's something unusual about it, this is already a mass-market commodity; Tesla shouldn't need to manufacture it. Well, let's see... I don't know the share of global PTFE that can be produced as an ultrafine powder at present, but the global PTFE market (all forms combined) is something like 180k tonnes/yr.. so if the binder comprises 5% of cell mass, and cells are ~300Wh/kg, 35GWh/yr would be ~6k tonnes per year. So... that's actually a pretty significant fraction. Not problematically large, but they're definitely going to have to line up supply.

Manufacturing hardware leadtimes should be relatively short because they're just hot rolling presses... practically commodity hardware, with very high throughput, an order of magnitude smaller than solvent-based vacuum ovens, and without the complex scrubbing system requirements.

All together... It's not going to take ages to work this into their product lines... but it's not going to happen the day after tomorrow either.

(And to anyone dreaming of "super-magic-wonder-cells"... limit your expectations. You never know if lab-scale benefits will materialize at large scales; they often don't (although I am optimistic in this case). But the key here is cost. The financial benefits of ditching vacuum ovens and solvent recapture systems - both capital and operating costs - are massive.)

 

[PhaseWhite]

Wake up! Musk let it be known that production is going reasonably well and there is no demand problem. They are selling every car they can make, advertising will not accelerate their goals, not even a little bit!

Musk gave credit for the unfulfillable demand to Tesla shareholders and owners who recommend the product but I think he did a real disservice to the people who designed, engineered and built the cars. They sell well because they are incredible products priced right. Tesla gets the credit here.

Sales are phenomenal! By revenue, the Model 3 is the best selling car in America! It has outsold even mainstream cars like the Toyota Avalon and Honda Accord. This is a huge achievement!

Some counter points to consider when discussing advertising, demand and... margins...

1. Tesla lowered prices multiple times in Q1 on S,X and 3 to stimulate demand...

2. S and X were definitely not production constrained in Q1. Sales collapsed. Price drops on these cars also created large one time write-offs for Tesla's resale value guarantee program and the value of inventory on their books.

3. Demand is not just about units delivered, it's also about the price you can ask and margins you can obtain. Along these lines what if Tesla could have continued to sell high margin variants of Model 3 into Q1 and Q2 without having to rush the release of the 35k Model 3? How much would that have been worth to the company?

 

[Krugerrand]

It is reassuring that they've *finally* figured out that they have to classify not just "driveable space", but "good road space", "bad road space", "emergency off-road space", and "totally unsafe" space.

They're about to start developing self-driving! It would have been quicker if they'd hired me upfront, since I could have told them they'd need to do this upfront, but hey, better late than never.

I am not remotely impressed by them, but I think they're stumbling their way slowly to the right process to eventually develop self-driving. I think they might get it done in a decade or two. Everyone else is on the wrong path with the wrong process, so Tesla's the only one with a chance.

Dude, just because they’ve not talked about it before doesn’t mean it’s suddenly a new idea to them today.

They have repeatedly proven they are often way ahead of where everyone else thinks they are, and they like to keep those thoughts to themselves until they are ready to reveal.

They were thinking of the SuperCharger Network before anyone else even considered it an option. They were thinking about building a Gigafactory before anyone even thought about it. And today they let it slip that they have a battery expansion plan for down the road.

They’ve known all along about correlation of SuperCharger Network and SC location to demand. They’ve known all along about the media FUD and how that affects some people’s buying choices. They have reasons for everything they do or don’t do that we are not usually privy too. You thinking you always know better based on limited information is ridiculous.

Seriously, get over yourself already. There are smarter people in the room than you.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So other than @neroden going around the bend a bit hiring himself as COO, not much to report other than being cell constrained? Nice to hear that acknowledged in the wide open. Hope Maxwell is enough leverage to get the Pany issues resolved.

As for advertising......why? We're cell constrained and demand is not an issue. Elon is against advertising on principle. You guys are buying into the horseshit, yet think more advertising is the solution? Banish it to irrelevance and help society evolve!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Was surprised to hear Elon say Battery Tech Day will be towards the end of the summer and not end of 2019. Seems to me they're lining it up with the announcement of Pickup and S/X full refresh(if employee leaks are real at all).

I don't know how they could expect to show off battery tech and still keep demand for the S/X. They could however announce the battery tech with the announcement of the S/X full refresh and say Mode 3 will not get this tech. In reality, Model 3 would get the new tech but it would be more for costs savings so the range wouldn't improve, it would just be cheaper to make the 3).

 

[powertoold]

It's a battery and powertrain investor day. The powertrain part is also interesting, not sure if they have any new developments there.

 

[Krugerrand]

Man someone should have asked him what are the differences between version 1, 2 and 3 roofs, and if he thinks v3 is marketable or not. ....or you can have some guy read a letter pitching Warren Buffet to buy Tesla..lol.

In reality it doesn’t matter the difference between the versions anymore than it matters what Warren Buffet does. People will only care that the product they have is affordable, reliable, lasts as long as it’s suppose to, doesn’t make their house look ridiculous, etc...

I appreciated the man’s enthusiasm and passion for Tesla. It’s people like that who will spread the word in a positive way about Tesla to everyone they come in contact with. And it’s probably equally as nice for Tesla employees to see a gleeful, all-in customer like that after pounding out long hours day after day.

 

[JRP3]

Some counter points to consider when discussing advertising, demand and... margins...

1. Tesla lowered prices multiple times in Q1 on S,X and 3 to stimulate demand...

2. S and X were definitely not production constrained in Q1. Sales collapsed. Price drops on these cars also created large one time write-offs for Tesla's resale value guarantee program and the value of inventory on their books.

3. Demand is not just about units delivered, it's also about the price you can ask and margins you can obtain. Along these lines what if Tesla could have continued to sell high margin variants of Model 3 into Q1 and Q2 without having to rush the release of the 35k Model 3? How much would that have been worth to the company?

Please stop pretending that Q1 wasn't a special situation:
Record Q4 sales
Largest drop in the tax refund incentive
Q1 is a traditionally weak quarter
Strong suspicion, which turned out to be true, of upcoming upgrades to the S and X
Advertising would have changed none of that.