Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

it could be a roof tile/storage/solar product. Doesnt have to be a car at all.

True, but everything else in those sequences is about vehicles. The opening sequence is showing all currently revealed models, and then they start this close-up sequence with new panel intersections, curved panels and other previously unseen details - all in the same dark grey color scheme, suggesting it's all the same thing.

If some of it was solar roof I'd have expected it to be more prominently displayed and better separated from vehicle close-ups.

 

[abasile]

This -- EVs depreciating less quickly than ICE cars -- will happen eventually. It isn't happening yet because everyone's just mindlessly using the standard depreciation curves based on miles driven and years.

I think it's going to change once people notice what good shape the Model Ses are in after 10 years. But that won't become clear to the general public until 2023 or 2024. Which is around the time that the value of ICE cars will drop off a cliff and they'll be practically unsaleable, so I guess we won't notice the more subtle depreciation effect immediately.

I believe the primary reason that people hesitate to buy an older EV is that they're concerned the battery pack may fail and need replacing, which would all but render the vehicle worthless. People are used to batteries only lasting a few years or so, and the early Nissan LEAF didn't exactly help perceptions. (FWIW, we're still driving our 2011 LEAF after 8 years on its original battery pack, albeit with 30% capacity loss.)

When people hear of older Model S cars driving 10-15 years on the same battery pack, that'll help change perceptions. I do make a point of telling people that our 2012 Model S has over 150K miles on the odometer and is practically as good as new.

 

[UncaNed]

And I hate to say it but this leaves open the possibility that there is more dry powder where that came from. Much more. I hope I'm wrong and it should be more clear by approximately Monday or so.

I'm grateful you wrote this. I've been struggling with when to buy more TSLA with what will be my last dry powder for a while... your post has me thinking...

 

[abasile]

It would be more accurate to say that many are *employees of Ford, GM, and Chrysler* and therefore don't like Tesla.

Not just employees, but employees of suppliers to the Big 3, family members, friends, etc. In other words, a substantial fraction of Michigan's population.

 

[SteveG3]

Chinese firm makes insane $23 billion investment in production of 1 million EVs/yr and 500 GWh of batteries - Electrek

edit: comment on Electrek is plausibly questioning whether this is an error in meaning of the Chinese account and suggesting this is likely a 50 GWh announcement. maybe someone here capable of checking can go to the source materials?

Announced over $20 billion commitment... including plan for 500 GWh battery factory. Five hundred.

For a sense of scale, if used strictly for 50 kWh BEVs, roughly the size of an SR Model 3 battery, this would be enough battery supply for 10 million vehicles. Of course, we don’t know how this capacity will be used (pure EVs, PHEVs, energy storage, etc.) if it is built up.

To be seen how capable they will be at executing, and how solid is the commitment, but, at face value this is the kind of effort Elon has dreamed of to spur the global incumbents into meaningful movement towards EVs.

 

[abasile]

Tesla is once again trying to capture the $3750 credit, Q3 probably will be the quarter to do the unwind since demand will drop slightly in the US and no credit phase out.

I haven't seen any evidence of Tesla trying to encourage US buyers to hurry up and take advantage of the $3750 credit before it drops to $1875 on July 1. It's probably best that Tesla say as little as possible about this more modest step-down in the tax credit. By contrast, in late 2018, Tesla was quite vocal in encouraging buyers to grab the full $7500 credit.

 

[AlexS]

https://electrek.co/2019/06/13/chinese-firm-evergrande-electric-cars-batteries/

Announced over $20 billion commitment... including plan for 500 GWh battery factory. Five hundred.

wow - Huawei of EVs, Europe lost smartphones to US and China, now the same happening with automotive

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm grateful you wrote this. I've been struggling with when to buy more TSLA with what will be my last dry powder for a while... your post has me thinking...

Never stop thinking.

That said, I don't believe you can out-think the market. There is very little rhyme or reason to short-term price movements unless you have more information than is realistically available. So thinking is primarily good for deciding what is best for your particular financial situation, not figuring out which way a stock like Tesla is going to go in the short-term.

It's just as likely that you'll take back that gratefulness if my post causes you to miss out on a great opportunity. We won't know which it was until we know. But, yes, just because a stock price seems low, doesn't mean there is only one direction it can go.

 

[abasile]

If you care about TSLA's mission, replace your ICE vehicles with EV's, get solar on your roof, and stop eating and wearing animals:

If I care about climate change (which I do), then I'm much more concerned that people stop consuming beef specifically. Other sources of meat (poultry, fish, etc.) tend to be not nearly as emissions intensive. You can debate the ethics of killing animals for food and clothing, but that's less relevant to climate change if those animals aren't cows.

 

[Fact Checking]

1mm shares in 12 minutes what a volume

It appears someone is taking advantage of the liquidity that is usually the Mandatory Morning Dip?

Macros are green as well, that probably gives it some support as well.

 

[Zaxxon]

If I care about climate change (which I do), then I'm much more concerned that people stop consuming beef specifically. Other sources of meat (poultry, fish, etc.) tend to be not nearly as emissions intensive. You can debate the ethics of killing animals for food and clothing, but that's less relevant to climate change if those animals aren't cows.

Or lamb.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

short squeeze to 255, let's go!

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Is it just me or this rotating thing is something?

View attachment 418744

Rotating stuff?

See the quote above

 

[EVNow]

Note that while the U.S. wave probably won't be unwound in Q2 (as expected), the crazy global end of Q1 rush probably won't be repeated.

So part of the wave might be unwound: in-transit might go from 10k to 15k?

I think quite a bit of global wave is repeated as well - though not as bad as Q1. Q1 was an aberration because of first time 3 deliveries when they had to solve a lot of logistical issues for the first time. It is slightly better space this time, yet, we'll see a large portion of cars delivered in June.

Basically, when there is little variation in deliveries between months (or even weeks), wave would be over. Any variation should be natural buying seasonality.

Q1 ended with ~20k 3s and ~14k s+x. I'd expect a lower inventory of s+x and a bit more of 3s, depending on what they do in the last 2 weeks of June. Natural inventory levels would be 1 month production for EU, China and 2 weeks for US - ~20k total, assuming 60k NA deliveries and 30k ROW. This would be when all the produced vehicles are being bought immediately. So, even with no wave, the inventory level should go down from 34k to 20k.

 

[StealthP3D]

wow - Huawei of EVs, Europe lost smartphones to US and China, now the same happening with automotive

Ummm...there are no smartphones made in the US.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Northvolt has appeared in the news again today being linked to Volkswagen. This is just about collaboration on research as of yet. Northvolt was founded by two ex Tesla execs. The plan is a factory in Sweden with a production of 32gwh in 2023. So less capacity than Tesla has today but in 4 years.

They just secured a $1B capital raise.

https://electrek.co/2019/06/12/northvolt-gigafactory-volkswagen-1billion/

 

[HG Wells]

Definitely a MMD

Mid Morning Dash

 

[pewpewpew]

At about 8:45 there’s a right angled intersection of flat panels which doesn’t match any car in production that I can tell, and would support this being the truck. That’s my guess. I can’t really make any of it jibe with the earlier reveal shot, but maybe it doesn’t have to.

I think the rotation looks like the truck wheel / hubcab. It looks a little Mad-Max plate armor like. Just a guess. If you watch the video over and over and compare some of the shapes to the original 'joke' design where the Ford is in the bed, you can see some similar shapes.

@9:27, it looks like their panning from bed to cab.

 

[AlexS]

Ummm...there are no smartphones made in the US.

I know, I was referring to Apple as a US company, I thought it was obvious

 

[EVNow]

short squeeze to 255, let's go!

Doing about 1% better than Nasdaq - otherwise almost following it tick by tick.