Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Can someone point to an article that had quotes from a Panasonic chief, that there are no issues with Tesla, and in fact that they consider their relationships with Tesla more as a partnership than as a supplier ?

I have a FUD to fight with some folks who asked me - what is that Panasonic knows that we don't know given that they have refused to expand the capacity of Gigafactory.?

Also isn't it true that Tesla will be using Panasonic cells in China too?

I thought it was Tesla that told Panasonic they couldn't expand in the GF until they got production up to what it's supposed to be. I've seen Panasonic China as a supplier posted here. I don't know if it's been confirmed yet, but it sounds reasonable.

 

[Sudre]

Can someone point to an article that had quotes from a Panasonic chief, that there are no issues with Tesla, and in fact that they consider their relationships with Tesla more as a partnership than as a supplier ?

I have a FUD to fight with some folks who asked me - what is that Panasonic knows that we don't know given that they have refused to expand the capacity of Gigafactory.?

Also isn't it true that Tesla will be using Panasonic cells in China too?

It was brought up sometime after the end of Panasonic Q1 I believe. Tesla and Panasonic mutually agreed to not expand battery cell manufacturing until Panasonic got the efficiency up. That's about all I remember. I believe that info came from Tesla side.

 

[Johnny Ma]

You are dead wrong.

While everyone does copy work and post it, and that's fine, *attribution matters*. It costs nothing to credit the person who did the work, and it matters a great deal to them. Musk is just being a jerk.

You've said before that you don't have the right personality for Twitter. You were certainly right about that.

All day, everyday, people with thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, and thousands of thousands of followers copy/paste other peoples creations and don't give credit. Twitter just isn't suited for it. Or even if it is, it's just not how people do things on Twitter! Musk being called out for it ridiculous.And the people getting so angry about it seem to be angry about everything - scroll through their feeds to see.

Nope. There are none at all.

There are a lot of people who would be happen to have someone post their artwork WITH credit. Pretty much nobody likes to see their stuff ripped off without so much as a "Image by XXX". The next step after that is someone else claiming credit for your work, and even fewer people want that.

I'm sure all artists would prefer to be credited, but that's not what happens. They're not going to change the environment, so they have to adapt to live in it. And the artist whose work Musk posted was very quickly identified, even though he didn't name her! Screaming about not being properly credited on Twitter is like getting mad at gravity - a huge waste of time.

 

[BBone]

New piece from not usually friendly BusinessInsider. This time a positive view of Elon as a 1900-ish car visionary. Nice to see someone paint Elon in a positive way.

It's been 100 years since we've seen anybody like Elon Musk — here's why that's so disorienting

 

[EVNow]

May 19 :
-- 997 Model S

June 3 :

-- 35 Model 3 (19 US / 16 Canada)
-- 93 Model X (14 US / 51 Canada / 23 Europe / 5 Asia-Pacific)
-- 762 Model S (484 US / 73 Canada / 163 Europe / 42 Asia-Pacific)

June 16 :

-- 1,146 Model 3 ( 52 US / 60 Canada / 1034 Europe / 0 AP)
-- 29 Model X (0 US / 20 Canada / 5Europe / 5 AP)
-- 318 Model S (52 US / 43 Canada / 187 Europe / 36 AP)

So, in a month they have sold 680 pre-Raven S. Just ~300 left now. Will probably get sold before end of the month.

 

[anon]

May 19 :
-- 997 Model S

June 3 :

-- 35 Model 3 (19 US / 16 Canada)
-- 93 Model X (14 US / 51 Canada / 23 Europe / 5 Asia-Pacific)
-- 762 Model S (484 US / 73 Canada / 163 Europe / 42 Asia-Pacific)

June 16 :

-- 1,146 Model 3 ( 52 US / 60 Canada / 1034 Europe / 0 AP)
-- 29 Model X (0 US / 20 Canada / 5Europe / 5 AP)
-- 318 Model S (52 US / 43 Canada / 187 Europe / 36 AP)

So, in a month they have sold 680 pre-Raven S. Just ~300 left now. Will probably get sold before end of the month.

I've also been occasionally looking at the numbers - note that the European S inventory suddenly increased by about 100 a few days ago. You can still see the impact of that in your numbers, where the June 16 inventory is greater than June 3.

Hopefully this was just a case of more showroom/test drive vehicles coming available after replacement with new Ravens, but it could indicate that Tesla still has more old S cars in Europe and they just don't want to list too many at once.

 

[RobStark]

VW workers at Tenn. plant reject second UAW organizing bid

 

[Antares Nebula]

I watched this video on YouTube:

What is the general consensus here about the Model S/X refresh rumors and possible introduction in September? I personally think it’s completely fabricated, in order to hurt current Tesla sales (Osbourne effect). Tesla just released big improvements to Model S and X, why would they bother if they’d have an all new refresh out the next quarter?

Second, the artist renderings shown in this clip do not at all fit the Tesla design language. I personally don’t like it, way too many lines and edges on the exterior that have no function and are probably a step back in aerodynamics. The interior goes counter to the Tesla style as well—Elon himself hates the conventional boxed-in cockpit design.

What also struck me as a complete fake is the rendering of the Model S at 2:04 showing two motors in the rear:

View attachment 420042

Looks like a poor Photoshop clone job, the second motor is actually protruding into the wheel well, lol.

This refresh is going to happen, and soon. I'm sorry, but Tesla dropped the ball here. Though I'm forgiving because Tesla is super busy doing a million things. But the lack of a refresh is certainly PART of the reason for S,X sales to drop. And these are high margin cars. It's hurting their revenue and profit. They realize this now, and are moving to fix it in stages. The first stage being the partial June Raven refresh.

But even with that, I personally wouldn't buy them even if I could afford it. Why? Does not have latest tech. And Tesla cars are all about tech. Primarily no V3 supercharging at same top speed as M3. That's an immediate no go for a flagship vehicle. Friends who ask me, I tell them to get a P M3 instead or wait for the refresh/redesign.

What is the most advanced production car on the planet? It is not the Model S or X. It is the Model 3, and bar none, Tesla or otherwise. That is a fact.

The S and X need to be returned to flagship status, if they are to be successful and if Tesla is to be successful. Musk now knows this and Tesla knows this. They need to do it. They will do it. 100% guaranteed...

If the rumored specs in that video are true, then these will sell like crazy and will push S,X sales back up to the 100,000+ area.

(PS, I agree with the poster about the looks and rendering in the video. Too over the top for Tesla style. The youtuber was clearly taking certain liberties. But that is not the point. The updated tech specs are what is important. I'm sure Tesla will do a good job with the design, contrary the impression some may get from the video.)

 

[Thekiwi]

What does everyone think is a realistic annual sales level for the S going forward? I don’t think anyone can deny that Model 3 definitely cannibalised some demand for the S (always best to cannibalize yourself if someone is going to do it). I also think the same will happen to some degree with the X being cannibalised by the Y. However the premium EV market is still growing, which should in the long term cancel out any near term drop from cannibalisation from the cheaper models.

With Roadster ramping up by 2021, a long term trend above 100k for the 3 premium models (S,X,R) should be safe to assume one would imagine.

 

[Singuy]

This refresh is going to happen, and soon. I'm sorry, but Tesla dropped the ball here. Though I'm forgiving because Tesla is super busy doing a million things. But the lack of a refresh is certainly PART of the reason for S,X sales to drop. And these are high margin cars. It's hurting their revenue and profit. They realize this now, and are moving to fix it in stages. The first stage being the partial June Raven refresh.

But even with that, I personally wouldn't buy them even if I could afford it. Why? Does not have latest tech. And Tesla cars are all about tech. Primarily no V3 supercharging at same top speed as M3. That's an immediate no go for a flagship vehicle. Friends who ask me, I tell them to get a P M3 instead or wait for the refresh/redesign.

What is the most advanced production car on the planet? It is not the Model S or X. It is the Model 3, and bar none, Tesla or otherwise. That is a fact.

The S and X need to be returned to flagship status, if they are to be successful and if Tesla is to be successful. Musk now knows this and Tesla knows this. They need to do it. They will do it. 100% guaranteed...

If the rumored specs in that video are true, then these will sell like crazy and will push S,X sales back up to the 100,000+ area.

(PS, I agree with the poster about the looks and rendering in the video. Too over the top for Tesla style. The youtuber was clearly taking certain liberties. But that is not the point. The updated tech specs are what is important. I'm sure Tesla will do a good job with the design, contrary the impression some may get from the video.)

S beats the Model 3 by 50 miles on a charge and a sec 0-60. It has the latest FSD computer, auto pilot sensors, superior suspension, pano roof that opens, and superior interior/exterior. The only thing that's lacking is the ability to charge 50kw faster using a super charger. A super charger that you'll end up using twice a year...if even (so your friend's Model 3 charges a whole 15 mins faster over the course of a year). I haven't been to one yet myself after 13k miles. You must be high thinking the Model 3 is a superior car vs the S refresh.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

What does everyone think is a realistic annual sales level for the S going forward? I don’t think anyone can deny that Model 3 definitely cannibalised some demand for the S (always best to cannibalize yourself if someone is going to do it). I also think the same will happen to some degree with the X being cannibalised by the Y. However the premium EV market is still growing, which should in the long term cancel out any near term drop from cannibalisation from the cheaper models.

With Roadster ramping up by 2021, a long term trend above 100k for the 3 premium models (S,X,R) should be safe to assume one would imagine.

Well depends, if going forward they start by putting their newest/best technology into the S/X first theres a solid chance they can keep these sales high. They had a big misstep letting the 3 have better charge rates than the S/X, that should never happen. I get they are/were in a tight spot and using 2170's or making new packs for S/X wasn't the priority but going forward that cant happen. There needs to be a clear and significant difference in performance/range/interior features between S/X and 3/Y.

Comparative unit sales of similar cars to the S:
Benz S Class - 77k units
7 Series - 56k units

I believe both of those start in the 85k-90k range.

For the X sales are easier just cause SUV's are more popular right now.

 

[graphix25]

Battery technology roll out thoughts:
Drive utilization improvements and add capacity of the current chemistry 2170 from Panasonic through end of 2021/2022 taking them to 70GWh+ between China and Giga in Nevada to support about 1.2 million 3/Y capacity. With the 2020 launch of Model Y and Model 3 expansion into China end of this year there is not enough time to switch to Maxwell at scale required. Tesla will share and utilize current chemistry specification with China Suppliers for Model 3/Y which could include Panasonic. Panasonic will add capacity to Nevada Giga to support the Model Y US launch. Next Tesla will coordinate Model S/X refresh with launch of first generation of Maxwell battery chemistry and manufacturing lines by end of 2019 or Q1 2020. Tesla will be getting back to leading technology with Model S/X and competition crushing 400+ mile range models. The rumored 3 motor design update will be the elusive domain of the performance model S/X for a big performance step up. Recently launched Raven powertrain will continue on the standard and long range S/X. Important to really differentiate the price premium of performance S/X to command top dollar for the models.

As Tesla proves out the Maxwell technology on the S/X scaling to 10 GWh capacity, they launch 2nd generation of the production lines to prepare for the Pickup and Semi 2021 launches. The "work" platforms will both need massive battery packs and density which is why it makes sense to launch these products on Maxwell technology. Once they get the production process perfected for Maxwell with v3 they launch Maxwell in 2022/2023 on 3/Y just in time for million mile robo taxi. At this point they will need about 120GW+ of capacity on Maxwell to support SEXY and Truck/Semi as we enter 2023.

Wide spread deployment of robo taxis and autonomous semis hit the market late 2022 and scale globally in 2023. Autonomous and leading battery capacity/technology/cost and great design will be what takes Tesla from a $40B company to $400B company.

 

[Antares Nebula]

S beats the Model 3 by 50 miles on a charge and a sec 0-60. It has the latest FSD computer, auto pilot sensors, superior suspension, pano roof that opens, and superior interior/exterior. The only thing that's lacking is the ability to charge 50kw faster using a super charger. A super charger that you'll end up using twice a year...if even (so your friend's Model 3 charges a whole 15 mins faster over the course of a year). I haven't been to one yet myself after 13k miles. You must be high thinking the Model 3 is a superior car vs the S refresh.

Yes it has more, but more old tech. It's like having more older CPUs in a computer than fewer newer ones. Processing power may be greater, but it's not the latest tech and is missing certain benefits. Besides the V3 supercharging speed, consider other benefits of Tesla's latest powertrain, specifically the battery pack. Yes Model S has a larger, but older pack, which gets better range than M3. But consider, as one TMC member recently pointed out:

No Model 3 battery fires!

There are a ton of Model 3 on the road and I'm sure that many have been involved in bad crashes. By this point in the Model S's timeline there had been quite a few fires.

Has Tesla engineered the risk of battery fires almost entirely out of the Model 3's battery pack?

What are the fire stats on ICE cars at this level of production and time on the market?

Like this there are other benefits of M3 over MS. It simply does not have the most advanced Tesla hardware. People who want a true flagship, with the latest and greatest tech are not going to buy current S,X. (I certainly wouldn't, and I am a huge Tesla fan.) We can see it in the sales figures. And they will continue to suffer as long as S,X trails the 3 in tech.

 

[Reciprocity]

I thought it was intentionally leaked by Tesla. Her wording makes me think it's real. Elon also said 400 mile Model S is coming. Tri-motor makes sense unless they can't finish all the work by September. As for why they leak it, I guess it's for competition reasons.

Tri-motor is the same as Roadster. Might be required to get an upgrade over current P versions. Could only be used in the P as well and not in SR and LR models. 2.1 0-60 from a P120T?

 

[Antares Nebula]

The way in which the Model S, X is "better" or "superior" than the 3 is similar to how a rolls royce or bently is "superior" to Model S, X. Yes, there are certainly superior aspects, particularly having to do with luxury and interior, exterior styling. But the S and X are more technologically advanced than the rolls royce or bently. Similarly the 3 is more advanced than the S, X.

 

[PeterJA]

Autonomous and leading battery capacity/technology/cost and great design will be what takes Tesla from a $40B company to $400B company.

I think the company won't stop there. Autonomous tech and superior batteries will make possible all kinds of other vehicles and robots, from electric jets (Elon said he has a design) to delivery drones and humanoid robots. Tesla can keep growing and conquering new markets for many years, and the stock will reflect that eventually.

A tsunami of hurt is coming for the shorts, again.

 

[powertoold]

Once level 5 autonomy is available with 2x sober human ability, possibilities are endless. You can have sleeper cars, party cars, stores on wheels, homes on wheels, etc. etc.

 

[JRP3]

The way in which the Model S, X is "better" or "superior" than the 3 is similar to how a rolls royce or bently is "superior" to Model S, X. Yes, there are certainly superior aspects, particularly having to do with luxury and interior, exterior styling. But the S and X are more technologically advanced than the rolls royce or bently. Similarly the 3 is more advanced than the S, X.

Your analogy doesn't really work. S is faster than the 3, Rolls and Bently are not. S also has more range than the 3, and an adjustable suspension. As for battery tech, we have no idea what the latest S/X have in them. I don't think it's as clear cut as you imply, and I don't think the general public is that aware of the nuances.

 

[Alphacrux]

This refresh is going to happen, and soon. I'm sorry, but Tesla dropped the ball here. Though I'm forgiving because Tesla is super busy doing a million things. But the lack of a refresh is certainly PART of the reason for S,X sales to drop. And these are high margin cars. It's hurting their revenue and profit. They realize this now, and are moving to fix it in stages. The first stage being the partial June Raven refresh.

But even with that, I personally wouldn't buy them even if I could afford it. Why? Does not have latest tech. And Tesla cars are all about tech. Primarily no V3 supercharging at same top speed as M3. That's an immediate no go for a flagship vehicle. Friends who ask me, I tell them to get a P M3 instead or wait for the refresh/redesign.

What is the most advanced production car on the planet? It is not the Model S or X. It is the Model 3, and bar none, Tesla or otherwise. That is a fact.

The S and X need to be returned to flagship status, if they are to be successful and if Tesla is to be successful. Musk now knows this and Tesla knows this. They need to do it. They will do it. 100% guaranteed...

If the rumored specs in that video are true, then these will sell like crazy and will push S,X sales back up to the 100,000+ area.

(PS, I agree with the poster about the looks and rendering in the video. Too over the top for Tesla style. The youtuber was clearly taking certain liberties. But that is not the point. The updated tech specs are what is important. I'm sure Tesla will do a good job with the design, contrary the impression some may get from the video.)

As folks here know, I jumped on the Raven to replace my 2015 P90D. It was a 'good enough' upgrade- faster APU, latest autopilot, full-self-driving, free upgrade to ludicrous, white vegan seats (which my 2015 lacked- no matter how much I tend to leather seats, they always end up cracking on me), sentry mode, 'good-enough' supercharging up to 150 KW on V2 and 200 KW on V3 (which is hardly available anywhere yet), $3750 tax credit, current S interior, which I like, more range (345 miles vs. 265 miles). Gave up free supercharging, but we have free supercharging on our other S (2017), and even pay-by-use isn't bad when you are talking over $100K purchase.

Neat thing is, this is lower cost ($108K before taxes and fees) than my 2015. Is this a bad thing? No. EVs are in a state of rapid technological improvement, just like computers for the last half-century. Do you regret paying $2500 for that 286 PC you bought in 1987?

I can always upgrade in 2021 or so to 450-mile range vehicle, with lighter weight, million-mile powertrain and battery, maxwell technology, etc. Just be sure you get in your share of driving before the Feds outlaw manual operation!

 

[BornToFly]

Your analogy doesn't really work. S is faster than the 3, Rolls and Bently are not. S also has more range than the 3, and an adjustable suspension. As for battery tech, we have no idea what the latest S/X have in them. I don't think it's as clear cut as you imply, and I don't think the general public is that aware of the nuances.

Exactly. The suspension in the new S is incredible. Last year I bought a Model 3 for both my boys, but I just got the Raven S P100DL for myself even though it costs a lot more. It is a nicer, better car than the 3. The 3 will sell a lot more because the price is in reach of a lot more people. In Salt Lake City, the demand for single family homes in the $250K range is off the hook. I know many people that gave up trying to buy a house in that price range because they kept losing bidding wars, and decided to build further away in new developments. But houses in the 700+ range take a lot longer to sell because the number of people that can afford a more expensive home is orders of magnitude lower, it isn't because the 250K houses are nicer than the 700K houses.