Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

Seem like the last few days has been moving the price close to what the MMs want it to be. I think this makes it a good buy today for a swing trade because once that pressure is released it should rise early next week.

Any news next week that might push it down?.... well except the unknown FUD that will be made up.

 

[ZachF]

80M to 50M would bankrupt half the OEMs.

Yes, and half of the half that live will be bailed out by their governments, IMHO.

Large ICE exporters (like Japan and Germany) will probably have to choose what OEMs to save as they won't have the resources to save them all.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have no proof that Audi nor anyone specific is hidden behind those various facades, but surely it would be easy for anti-Tesla industries to purchase influence.

CR, with it's promised neutrality, is of a pet peeve of mine because I really trusted it. Maybe it's my middle age grumpiness that I'm more aware of formerly trusted institutions like CR, Boy Scouts, MSNBC, Reuters, and others where we cannot ignore the man behind the curtain any longer.

As someone who typically knows more about the product I am about to buy than the person selling it, I've always found a strange disconnect with Consumer Reports opinions and ratings. I learned not to trust them, oh, a few decades ago. They typically seem to recommend the most ho-hum, run-of-the-mill products when there are demonstrably superior products available.

Now I know why.

I had no idea they accepted "donations". I always thought their "no advertising" business model was odd. It would be difficult to pay for all the testing they do, all their staff and offices, etc, just on subscription sales. Now I know where the real money comes from.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

According to EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain we are still above deliveries for Netherlands+Norway+Spain compared to the same time at Q1. Glad to see Europe still operating strong after the big sales month in March and also keep in mind we are getting UK deliveries this quarter which we didn't have last quarter. Combine this with leaked deliveries numbers in the US if they keep up I'm getting more confident of a record quarter.

 

[Nocturnal]

Once Tesla hits sustained profitability then the short efforts won't matter anymore right? Pushing down the SP just makes it harder to borrow money, but if you don't need to borrow then you don't care that much. Am I missing something?

This is true, but I don't think either of those things will happen until well after EVs have effectively totally displaced ICE in terms of sales... Remember, if tomorrow all car sales were magically changed to EVs it would still take the better part of a decade for the majority of the fleet to become electric.

I don't think we need to have that many to hurt gas stations. Even a 20% drop in revenue might be enough cause closures...which makes EVs more attractive...which causes more closures.

 

[EVNow]

I disagree. You are describing what is, at it's worst, 20% of the population. Nowhere near half.

Here is something that is useful to keep in mind. Regardless of political affiliation, only a small fraction of population is actually willing to take action to combat climate change. This was the most eye opening thing for me in early part of this decade. I thought - there are more than 2 M members of Move On - wouldn't they all want to buy EVs and help the planet ? Apparently not - because it wasn't convenient.

The Unprecedented Surge in Fear About Climate Change

Despite this increasing acceptance, there is no clear political path forward. Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes” were needed to keep the Earth’s temperature from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius. Such a transformation would be, in other words, expensive. But almost 70 percent of Americans say they wouldn’t pay $10 every month to help cool the warming planet.

That's, right. 70% of the Americans value planet earth at less than $10/month !​

 

[StealthP3D]

Here is something that is useful to keep in mind. Regardless of political affiliation, only a small fraction of population is actually willing to take action to combat climate change. ​

EV's are not going to dominate car sales because of climate change, it will be because they are demonstrably superior.

Even conservatives who don't like change still want nice things. There will be around 10% who see status in keeping the status quo and they will be the dinosaurs of society. In the end, internal combustion fanatics will be like a religious sect and they will apply for protection under the Freedom of Religion clause of the Constitution. Tourists will come from other developed nations to witness their rituals; revving engines, 1/4 mile races (.EV's not allowed, that's blasphemy), they will have their own gas pumps on a drive-up "altar" where the ritual of communion will consist of sect members vehicles receiving the "holy sacrament" (gasoline) from their church's pumps.​

 

[Nocturnal]

Despite the recent last minute cancellation of the attack on Iran, I still think there are good odds we wind up in a war with Iran. It's going to certainly be interesting seeing gas spike like crazy.

EV's are not going to dominate car sales because of climate change, it will be because they are demonstrably superior.

Even conservatives who don't like change still want nice things. There will be around 10% who see status in keeping the status quo and they will be the dinosaurs of society. In the end, internal combustion fanatics will be like a religious sect and they will apply for protection under the Freedom of Religion clause of the Constitution. Tourists will come from other developed nations to witness their rituals; revving engines, 1/4 mile races (.EV's not allowed, that's blasphemy), they will have their own gas pumps on a drive-up "altar" where the ritual of communion will consist of sect members vehicles receiving the "holy sacrament" (gasoline) from their church's pumps.​

Tourists will come from other developed nations to witness their rituals; revving engines, 1/4 mile races (.EV's not allowed, that's blasphemy),

Because otherwise they will always lose.

 

[Compton]

That's, right. 70% of the Americans value planet earth at less than $10/month !

The most depressing thing I have heard in a while.

 

[SteveG3]

Surprising traffic down trend since May 27 according to Alexa.
Tesla Competitive Analysis, Marketing Mix and Traffic - Alexa

I don’t find that surprising at all,

the build up and peak, match the flood of media articles re “code red,” “$10 bear scenario,” “demand cliff,” “growth story dead,” etc, as the “untouchable Tesla” (‘untouchable stock’ and ‘untouchable products’) screaming was dialed to 11

the falloff corresponds with the repeated and increasingly direct communications out of Tesla that demand is strong, and a record quarter quite doable... covered (miscovered) about as little as possible

even if this is a measure of self-initiated searches, the over-the-top volume of all that programming is designed explicitly to get people stirred up and focused on its message. in this case, the false message of ‘don’t look (look! look!) here comes the train wreck for Tesla and the saps who bought cars from a soon to be bankrupt company.’

 

[ZachF]

Once Tesla hits sustained profitability then the short efforts won't matter anymore right? Pushing down the SP just makes it harder to borrow money, but if you don't need to borrow then you don't care that much. Am I missing something?


I don't think we need to have that many to hurt gas stations. Even a 20% drop in revenue might be enough cause closures...which makes EVs more attractive...which causes more closures.

Yes, but a ~20% drop requires roughly a 20% share of EVs in the US fleet.... that's over 50 million cars.

If the US (as of 2018) has ~1 million EVs on the road, and sales of 350k right now, and sales increase by 40% per year, we don't hit 50 million cumulative sales until ~2028.

 

[ZachF]

The most depressing thing I have heard in a while.

You don't know what you got, till it's gone

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't think we need to have that many to hurt gas stations. Even a 20% drop in revenue might be enough cause closures...which makes EVs more attractive...which causes more closures.

Does anyone here any data or anecdotal evidence about how the drop in gasoline sales in Norway is affecting gas stations?

Because Norway is a prosperous country with a large middle class I'd expect gas stations to have relatively high margins, and the convenience store sections to generate enough revenue, while selling gas itself is mostly at the margins.

But it would be nice to see what the trends are. Are gas stations closing? Are new ones opening? Are they stagnating or deteriorating?

It's also hard to find data on gasoline consumption on roads for Norway. The World Bank dataset of "per capita gasoline consumption in the road sector" ends at 2012, after a steep drop:

The XLS dataset is at:

https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/is.rod.sgas.pc?downloadformat=excel​

I suspect much of the drop was due to improvement in fuel economy and high gasoline prices, but also the beginning of the EV revolution.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OTA

The most depressing thing I have heard in a while.

No it's not, not really. American's are practical folks. Those 70% just think that there's nothing you can spend $10 on that will actually help the climate. But those folks will buy a $40K Tesla, especially when its obviously better deal than a $30K Camry:

• cheaper to operate
• longer lifetime
• more fun/performance
  
• better resale value
  
• safest car on the road
  
• OTA updates keep it fresh
• FSD when its ready

Those folks have friends who will buy a $45K Model Y and a $50K Pickup. That's how we win this. Given the carrot and stick approach in America, we just need to show them there's a better way than getting the shaft.

Cheers!

 

[N5329K]

For some with larger egos, they won't be able to handle a quiet car.

They can glue playing cards to the Aero covers and let them slap the fenders.
Robin

 

[EVNow]

EV's are not going to dominate car sales because of climate change, it will be because they are demonstrably superior.

No - EVs will dominate because of FSD

Question is when. I'm no longer in the "in 5 years" camp. I'm jumping to "in 10 years" camp.

 

[EVNow]

The most depressing thing I have heard in a while.

I guess you don't follow politics

 

[Fact Checking]

That's, right. 70% of the Americans value planet earth at less than $10/month !

The most depressing thing I have heard in a while.

I don't think that's the correct interpretation: the correct interpretation IMO is that while they support EVERYONE paying for a better future, they obviously see the futility of them volunteering to pay a sum. It's a classical game theory paradox: collective action works so much better than individual action.

For example riding a bicycle would be better for the planet, but for many, many people it's not practical: it's dangerous in the winter or in the hot summer, taking home groceries or picking up young kids is problematic with a bicycle, especially for older people. It's not a practical replacement for a car, even if everyone riding bicycles would save the planet.

The genial thing about the EV transition as spearheaded by Tesla is that driving a Tesla is a personal lifestyle upgrade in almost every regard, not a sacrifice.

 

[AndyH]

OT:

Happy Summer Solstice for the northern hemisphere at 11:54 AM ET!

I tried to balance an egg on end. Always wanted to try that. Sadly, it failed to balance.

With nearly 15 hours of daylight, it's a perfect time to hit the open road in a Tesla!

Having eggs for lunch.

OT:

In Sweden we're celebrating this day by force feeding on pickled herring and dancing "the little frog dance". Escaping that for a drive in your Tesla sounds better than our usual method of schnapps-induced amnesia.

 

[SteveG3]

No - EVs will dominate because of FSD

Question is when. I'm no longer in the "in 5 years" camp. I'm jumping to "in 10 years" camp.

I actually think FSD is ICE incumbents last best hope at many more years of foot dragging re transitioning to EVs.

If things play out, whether through an outside entity, like Waymo, or a program via an incumbent, such that they deliver FSD within a year or two of Tesla, they have far greater opportunity to drag their feet. Regulators could potentially tip the scales in various countries to make this happen even if Tesla has a bigger tech lead. That is, tech-wise Tesla could have even a 5-year lead, but regulators in various jurisdictions could stall approval to avoid such an outright lead.

If ICE incumbents get access to FSD, the vastly improved safety will be widely reported on. I think the strong majority of consumers, at least in their actions, will vote for “let’s buy an FSD ICE today” (10X less likely for me and my family to be hurt in accident) over, “let’s get on that 5 year waiting list for one of those FSD EVs in very short supply.” I think it’s even possible that at least some of the governments who’ve called for ICE bans in the future will soften to allow plugin hybrids on the grounds that FSD is a life saver and EVs are simply in a shortage due to a lack of batteries.


This is likely an aspect of why Elon is moving so aggressively, even for him, towards FSD. Also, likely an aspect of why incumbents are moving aggressively compared to other tech changes.

I really think how things play out among various players re FSD hitting the roads (regulatory authorities being very much among the players) will have a dramatic impact on how much longevity ICE ( increasingly plugin hybrids) will have.