Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

View attachment 424275

74100 M3 deliveries so far

Pic not working on mobile. News blurb on think or swim

FYI, this is totally misleading headline. Tesla did not report anything. It's about a CNBC video segment with Phil Lebeau, where he states UBS (or some other analyst) estimate for M3 this quarter.

Hence why the stock did not move off of it.

 

[neroden]

It's better then most.

2030 is better then 2040, which is way too late.

But I still feel the deadline should be 2025 to stop new ICE sales. Plenty of used ones you could buy if you really need to buy one by then.

So, interestingly, these deadlines act as signals to investors. What they do is eliminate capital investment in ICE vehicles. As such the date is not as important as you might think.

 

[mrmage]

Mild correction: "Save humanity". As I've said before, the world would be fine if we went extinct. Which, if we don't act fast, we will.

(There's a reason one of the major movements right now is called "Extinction Rebellion")

I beg to differ.

avengers save the world - Google Search

 

[StealthP3D]

Ok, so I've noticed that since the market opened just over one hour ago, nobody mentioned the evolution or direction of a certain financial parameter. I strongly suggest we keep it that way, so as to not... ahem... jinx things.

Oh please, the direction of said financial parameter is only the direction until it's not. We've barely moved in over two weeks and it's not due to a lack of trying by the shady big-money interests who want to see Tesla fail. They have tried their damndest but, as smarter money got attracted at the current attractive prices, they have been involved in a losing battle. If they don't get some "good" news soon, they are about to get hurt badly.

 

[jerry33]

(Okay, in a rare move, I'm going to quote myself here.)

Don't really understand Apple's strategy here. This is a product that is already a high margin, specialty pro product, with low volume. Compared to their monster revenue and profits, how much of a difference is moving Mac Pro production to China really going to make to their bottom line? Versus the high political price paid. What is Tim Cook thinking?!

(And let us not even talk about the departure of Jony Ives and the shift to software/services, moving away from their core DNA of integrated hardware design. Producing movies? Really? I call peak Apple.*)

*Big Apple fan too, especially back when everyone wasn't.

Tim Cook can only see margin. He can't see things like satisfied customers (or the ones unhappy because of some of the choices made). Longtime customers mean nothing to him.

 

[Doggydogworld]

The ironic part of this story is that the digital watch was invented by the Swiss themselves. However, the manufacturers rejected the new invention. The new invention was picked up by Seiko of Japan and it’s a good probability you are wearing one, or one of its descendants, on your wrist right now!

I wore a watch daily from 2nd grade on, but stopped when smartphones arrived. None of my kids wear a watch, nor to my knowledge do their friends. Swiss dominated analog timepieces for centuries, but the digital watch market only lasted a few decades.

The popular Kodak myth is even worse. Kodak actually "won" the digital camera market by some measures, just before that market collapsed. What good did it do them?

Robotaxis are the real threat to legacy carmakers. They'll be BEVs, but that's really incidental.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

OT



That's your definition. When I am depressed, I gain solace from the realization that bacteria, fungi, and many plant and animal species will survive our extinction. The biosphere is hard to destroy, even with a mass extinction.

Not just survive. Jellyfish and certain algae are thriving right now.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

FYI, this is totally misleading headline. Tesla did not report anything. It's about a CNBC video segment with Phil Lebeau, where he states UBS (or some other analyst) estimate for M3 this quarter.

Hence why the stock did not move off of it.

Ok, that’s what I wanted to know(without watching since it seemed sketchy). That would make the headline not just misleading but an out-and-out lie. “Fake News”, some might call it.

 

[Driver Dave]

Pretty fairly presented, I'd say.

Seems like they were in heavy traffic.

Which is fine, it behaves how it does in heavy traffic.

But on long stretches of highway

@ZachShahan just published this article on CleanTechnica:

Why Do The NYTimes & Other Large Media Outlets Get Tesla & EVs So Wrong? | CleanTechnica​

A lot of topics covered, and I wholeheartedly agree with his overall assessment: 90% of the Tesla FUD is a diverse mix of plain old affinity fraud propagated by two disrupted industries (automotive and old energy), overworked journalists with way too many topics to cover and way too short of an attention span, tribal affiliations, PR mistakes by Elon and Tesla, helpfully egged on by the financial sector through the most shorted major stock on global financial markets, combined with the physically most complex business plan Elon Musk could think of which is absolutely not conductive to make things easier to understand and explain.

So yes, I absolutely concur with @ZachShahan and @tinm that there's no "conspiracy" and except a few well known FUDster the mainstream media is at worst confused about and harboring tribal prejudice against Tesla. There's many, mostly disorganized entities acting against Tesla out of confusion, due to being disrupted, and, in some cases out of financially motivated malice and fraudulent intent as well (short sellers).

As to solutions? @ZachSachan mentioned that he considers #PravDuh a mistake timed poorly in light of the existential threat Trump and Republican messaging is posing to independent journalism, and I think there might actually be two channels of honey to improve Tesla's media coverage:

• Tesla is one of the most exciting companies on earth, and in the journalistic world where the scoop is currency, Tesla is a central bank: factory visits, face time with executives, unveils, comments on current evens, etc. Tesla and Elon has tried this and got burned a couple of times, but it's not organized, strategic and frequent enough I think.
• I suggested before a more direct method to save journalism: Elon could start a foundation that promotes independent journalism. If the Kochs, Merceds and Bezos are buying media influence unashamed, why couldn't Elon do something to improve investigative and objective journalism? Money does help.

This situation is not going to self-correct easily, but once it does, it will be a massive event affecting stock valuation as well.

He and everyone else is missing the reality that auto sections in papers are an entirely different thing than the regular news sections, and are frequently run directly by the ad department.

So you definitely can’t dismiss that some of the coverage is affected by ad dollars, because the ad dept is directly involved in creating the content.

Before it didn’t matter so much to anyone that a GM review was right next to a GM dealerships ad.

But now it matters.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I wore a watch daily from 2nd grade on, but stopped when smartphones arrived. None of my kids wear a watch, nor to my knowledge do their friends. Swiss dominated analog timepieces for centuries, but the digital watch market only lasted a few decades.

The popular Kodak myth is even worse. Kodak actually "won" the digital camera market by some measures, just before that market collapsed. What good did it do them?

You're talking about products though, which doesn't always translate to the success or decline of companies. Digital watches were made by both traditional watch companies and gadget makers (Casio is the classic example, along with Seiko, Timex, Sekonda) and along with calculators and cheesy synths those things have vanished. Cameras are a little different - but I don't agree Kodak 'won' the digital camera market, when you had players like Sony, Samsung, Olympus and of course Canon and Nikon. Maybe Kodak won the dollar-central market for cameras but no one went seeking out their products. Those companies still exist (minus Kodak in any meaningful form).

Anyway, the point is that none of the revolutionary changes in product types (digital watches and cameras, computers, televisions) have resulted in a single company dominating the majority of the market, and while there are some casualties, most companies actually adapt to the change. Apple might be the closest to ever dominating a sector, but their market share across all 'computing' devices world wide is still in single digits, despite them being one of the biggest companies in the world.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - Yesterday:

 

[moneyburner1]

Because Elon has said many times that they don't account for a sale until the vehicle is delivered and the paperwork is complete.

this driven by the accounting standards of US Gaap when you can recognize revenue...

 

[LJS22]

Not understanding why analysts believe Q3 and 4 will see less demand for Tesla’s. The tax incentive is overplayed, gas isn’t going to 99 cents, and China + multiple other territories are soon to be more active. Tesla slow rolled demand by not advertising. The more people that drive them the more other people see them the more access people get to Tesla’s the more they want them.

But we’ll see maybe some of these analyst know something different

 

[StealthP3D]

CNBC - Yesterday:

The last comment was hilarious and is emblematic of everything that is wrong with financial analysts today:

"Well, five years is a long time and I'd like to see what they do tomorrow". Really? You want to focus on what Tesla does tomorrow? LOL!

Now is a good time to inspect your bellybutton for lint. If you are qualified to do that, of course.

 

[replicant]

OT



That's your definition. When I am depressed, I gain solace from the realization that bacteria, fungi, and many plant and animal species will survive our extinction. The biosphere is hard to destroy, even with a mass extinction.

Seriously?

Definition of WORLD
World - Wikipedia

Can you link to a published definition of the word that does not specifically mention that it's about an inhabited place with human people in it (e.g countries, civilizations…)?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

staggering that the people on these TV shows get paid to discuss a business they are literally clueless about.
What should TSLA value be? "well huh lets look at whether they went up or down recently". Cutting edge analysis, I bet you felt your MBA was well earned... sheer idiocy.

 

[Bet the House]

OT

Does anyone have a presentation on TSLA they can share? I am talking to a well-to-do family member next week and am going to try and have them buy shares of TSLA (would be a somewhat significant purchase for a retail investor but is minuscule in the big picture).

The investor asked to see a presentation, which I will complete if there isn't something readily available, but if anyone already has something (or if it is somewhere else on TMC) I'd rather not recreate the wheel, although I will be add some slides. I will be happy to share mine when complete. Thanks in advance.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Not understanding why analysts believe Q3 and 4 will see less demand for Tesla’s.

Q3 headwinds:
- US tax credit stepdown hangover
- End of pent-up SR+ demand in North America
- End of pent-up AWD/P demand in Europe
- China buyers possibly waiting for Shanghai version

There are some tailwinds, too, e.g. pent-up SR+ demand in Europe should last through Q3 and word-of-mouth effects should build. Q4 will have seasonal uplift, pull-forward from looming incentive stepdowns in US, Netherlands and China as well as possible Shanghai Model 3 availability.

 

[SteveG3]

staggering that the people on these TV shows get paid to discuss a business they are literally clueless about.
What should TSLA value be? "well huh lets look at whether they went up or down recently". Cutting edge analysis, I bet you felt your MBA was well earned... sheer idiocy.

hosts may or may not be clueless, but, yes, the discussion focuses on a nonsense view, and that is not by accident, but rather what they’ve been employed to do.

The Day That TV News Died | BillMoyers.com

 

[Green Pete]

I imagine that's part of it. I also have to believe that the autocratic government in China allows for tearing through red tape when they want.

I watched a Ted talk where a guy compared a bridge built in the US to a similar one being built in China. The US one took a couple years, the Chinese one took like 6 days.

While much of that is red tape and labor concerns, when you plan properly to build at scale you can make sure you have the right tools for the job on hand.