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The main difference is that it is easy to carry extra gas with you or even fit a larger, or extra, tank on a had car.
Yeah... so...

The economics for rural gas stations, especially away from expressways, are going to get dreadful. They don't get enough business to stay open. (I have watched many close already.) But very rural areas may be late adopters of electric cars, due to a lack of fast charger availability and lots of long drives. What they DO have is a lot of empty space to store gas cans. We're going to see people in these rural areas carrying around lots of cans of gas in the back of their pickups, and "going to town" 500 miles away to stock up on gasoline occasionally. Yuck.
 
Notwithstanding what I just said, I now think they'll go ahead with the semi. Maybe just a lot slower than people think. Reservations have already been taken and a lot of work already completed. I think it's a great product, in a great market, that Elon really wants to serve.
The internal profit from using the Semis for Tesla Inc. is so huge that they really have to go forward with the Semi, and they have to do it as fast as possible. Unlike selling vehicles to the outside, using Semis internally Tesla takes both the manufacturer/dealer profit, *and* the cost savings which normally accrue to the consumer who switches from gas to EV. It will be a huge source of profit, which is needed for expanding battery production. Plus, the marketing value of "eating your own dogfood" is huge.
 
Once they achieve FSD (Level 5 autonomy) and the legislation is in place to allow them to run it, is there anything stopping Tesla from selling their vehicles at the current price with Enhanced Autopilot (reliable Level 3-4) for the "drivers" -- which is a very large proportion of the population -- and charging something like $30k for the upgrade to FSD?
It would be a waste to sell to "drivers" who keep the car parked 95% of the time. By running the car 24/7, lot more emissions can be cut.
 
Adam Jonas has found a new narrative (took him a week to come up with this one): record Q2 is pull-in from what would have normally been H2 sales: ...

What I don’t understand is how he thinks Tesla is fundamentally overvalued but still has a $230 target for the stock. Isn’t that where we are today?

I want to know his position in ACME Co...

upload_2019-7-8_13-12-28.png
 
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Personal trading story alert.

Bleah. So Schwab has raised the margin requirement on Tesla to 75%, which substantially increased the margin requirements for my short puts -- beyond what is covered by margin capacity on the one other stock where I trust them not to raise the margin requirement. (And Schwab made another stock, the merger arb I'm waiting on, totally non-marginable simultaneously.) Out of caution, I decided to prepare myself for the (unlikely, but potentially disastrous) possibility of Schwab making Tesla non-marginable entirely, so I converted all my short puts into put spreads by buying deep-deep-in-the-money puts, thus substantially reducing the margin capacity required to carry (even in the case where TSLA becomes non-marginable) down to below what's covered by the one stock I trust to remain marginable (even if it drops by 10%). Unfortunately to cover the purchase of these insurance puts which will become worthless, I had to sell a little bit of my TSLA, about 3.6% of my position. :-( I tax-loss-harvested, which is some consolation. But it's better to be insured against a margin call, even if it was an expensive insurance; I don't want to risk being forced out of my positions. I wanted to maintain the short put positions (all LEAPS) because they will almost certainly still make a lot more profit than the insurance puts cost. If the merger arb cashes out I should be able to sell the insurance puts back and recover some of the cost; if TSLA is still down I may be able to restore my position, but I doubt I'll get that lucky.

BTW, when you see those large spikes in open interest in never-gonna-pay-off $50 and $100 puts? Those are probably held long by bulls who have sold puts at higher strikes, in order to defray their margin requirements by converting their positions into spreads.

75%!!!!

thanks for the description of how you ‘unwound’ the high requirement.

i don’t know whether to read the 75% as an alarm directed more towards those leveraged short or long, obviously it affects both but...

not every broker has the same requirements. one is 40% one is 45% now schwab is 75%

obviously their retail books look different, what id like to know is how much different
 
What is this, an actual investor related post in this thread? C'mon buddy, this thread is only for Robotaxis discussion apparently...

Seriously. Since they merged the threads this forum has become nearly unbearable. I check in occasionally out of habit. But the new norm seems to be 10 pages of nonsense based on feeling and assumptions followed by one thoughtful or well researched post.

Feel free to rain down dislikes followed by “why don’t you stop complaining and contribute.” Regardless, I can’t help but miss the TMC of years past. Thoughtful investor posts, intelligently written involving numbers.. ah those were the days.
 
Which leads to the next question, BOF or unibody. BOF if using the Semi frame (way overbuilt). Unibody, then what platform? Model 3's? A new modular platform?

That's kinda like asking if it will have drum brakes or disc brakes. It's a fallacy that body on frame is better for towing, the better rigidity of unibody reduces dangerous trailer sway and improves handling with heavy loads. The body just needs to be rigid enough to avoid problems with doors and windows.
 
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Reactions: jerry33
Does anybody know why the debt in Tesla's 10-Q and 10-K filings are slightly off from the debt in their quarterly earnings reports?

For example, Q1'19 Recourse debt in 10-Q filing is 6,782,303, whereas it is listed as 6,517,022 in their Q1'19 Earnings Report:

Latest 10-Q (Q1'19):
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6c1d8708-1f9e-4cf9-b31a-a7c106d03a2c (Page 21)

Recourse: 6,782,303
Non-recouse: 3,543,208

Latest Earnings Letter (Q1'19):
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f (Page 8)

Recourse: 6,517,022
Non-recourse: 3,485,597

I believe the schedule in the 10-Q includes some finance leases and the note at the bottom of page 8 does not. Note also that the total of "long term debt plus finance leases", in the earnings letter is larger than either of the above totals.

Damn finance leases :)
 
So what's your Q3 delivery forecast? The "minimum" 18% uplift = 112k? Or something higher?

I think Jonas is too low again. He shaped his Q3/Q4 numbers to hold his full year forecast constant. That seems dumb, even for Jonas. I'll say 97k. Model 3 production should be up, but deliveries flattish. I'm not sure what to think about S/X, so I'll say flat there as well. High demand for Raven would push them above 100k, but I'm skeptical.

Jonas could be right if they finally unwind the wave, but LOL. I do expect more Q3 boats, however. Looks like we'll have the first this week.

My Q3 deliveries guesses: assuming the same quarter over quarter production increase as Q1->Q2 which was +15% from 62.9k to 72.5k, we'd get Q3 Model 3 production of 83.4k units. Model S/X production was 14.1k in Q1 and 14.5k in Q2 - it was all about the pre-Raven inventory flush it appears. Depending on how much they'll be able to produce in Q3 I'd guess S+X production of 18k-20k.

With that the Q3 production range is 102-104k units, with deliveries a few thousand below that to refill the previously pre-Raven inventory - my guess would be around 100k deliveries - which is below the +15% historic range.

But it's too early to tell - Tesla's pricing and bundling decisions and other 'demand levers' during the quarter should give us hints about how confident they are feeling about the Q3 order book.
 
Adam Jonas has found a new narrative (took him a week to come up with this one): record Q2 is pull-in from what would have normally been H2 sales:
May be he is getting ideas from Troy ;)

TroyTweet1.PNG


Deliveries. Tesla beat our 2Q delivery estimate by 13,622 units. We removed 6,500 units from 3Q and 7,200 units from 4Q. We now expect 3Q deliveries to fall sequentially to 91,300 units before recovering slightly to 97,200 units in 4Q. Model mix and price deterioration take our forecasted Y/Y revenue growth to down 3% for 3Q and down 2% for 4Q.
These numbers aren't that unreasonable. Q3 could be lower than Q2.

I'd like these to be the analyst consensus estimates. Upto Tesla to beat them.

Gross margin
. We left our 2Q19 auto gross margin unchanged at 20.0% (ex regulatory credits) and 21.5% including credits. We forecast 3Q and 4Q auto gross margin on an ex-regulatory credit basis to be 20.6% and 20.9% respectively.
I think the margins in Q2 will be lower (because of pre-raven discounted S/X) and higher number of SR+ in the mix. He is setting them up for a revenue miss.

What I don’t understand is how he thinks Tesla is fundamentally overvalued but still has a $230 target for the stock. Isn’t that where we are today?
Because he thinks Tesla will be selling less than 1M cars even 3/5 years from now.
 
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My Q3 deliveries guesses: assuming the same quarter over quarter production increase as Q1->Q2 which was +15% from 62.9k to 72.5k, we'd get Q3 Model 3 production of 83.4k units. Model S/X production was 14.1k in Q1 and 14.5k in Q2 - it was all about the pre-Raven inventory flush it appears. Depending on how much they'll be able to produce in Q3 I'd guess S+X production of 18k-20k.

With that the Q3 production range is 102-104k units, with deliveries a few thousand below that to refill the previously pre-Raven inventory - my guess would be around 100k deliveries - which is below the +15% historic range.

But it's too early to tell - Tesla's pricing and bundling decisions and other 'demand levers' during the quarter should give us hints about how confident they are feeling about the Q3 order book.

The fact that the first week of Q3 has not seen substantial price drops and drastic changes in versions and options might be an indication that they are pretty confident at the moment.
 
1. A personal car without FSD will be used for about 10-15k miles/yr. A Robotaxi would be used for at least 80k-120k miles/yr.

Average taxi miles per year range from 30K (London) - 50K (New York). (Probably lower in more rural areas.) Robotaxis would be similar. Do your homework before spewing nonsense, people.

How Many Miles Does an Average Taxi Cab Driver Drive Yearly?
Taxi Driver Survey 2016 | Taxi Insurance

The problem, as people who have actually studied transportation know, is "rush hour". You can't get taxis, or personal cars, or buses, or trains, full 24 hours a day because the demand simply isn't there 24 hours a day. And we actually know the demand pattern.

The only way to change that is staggered shifts and people *hate* staggered shifts.

Anyway, those are some actual numbers to use when making projections related to any taxi market.
 
OT



What I always tell people about this is "Yeah, the battery will probably die after 15 to 20 years, but the rest of the car will die first." The car's computer is going to die before then. Most used cars don't last 20 years.
But it only takes $2,500 or so for a new MCU and screen. Also I kept the first new vehicle I bought for twenty years :)