Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Any predictions for EOD SP?

No more shorting allowed for two days. Picked up short term calls in the 228 range but am looking to trade.

Unrealistic to think 235 to 240 by 4pm?

I mean I know FUD and all, but about the only unexpected event you can really claim here is JB kind of officially leaving, even though everyone seemed to know it and he didn't exactly just leave. What is different from yesterday that this stock is worth 15% less? I thought everything came in on target as advertised.

 

[Chartered321]

Let me just say that despite JB leaving the CTO role, I'm very happy for the results and the future of Tesla. So many options, so many products and applications are possible. 3 gigafactories, best in class products and tecnology. Promising financials and cheap fundamentals. Being profitable is not what I'd aim if the goal is growing esponentially. For those who are stuck with the money making thing or any other shortseller thesis, I'm gonna just say that I'm very happy to be invested in Tesla. Ethically the best company of my portfolio.
Wall street and media guys, this is a fun reminder for you

 

[Chunky Jr.]

When will Tesla start seeing the couple billion from Fiat?

 

[anthonyj]

Doubt institutions will unload after a huge gap down day like today, especially with +$600m FCF lol. Prob seeing some accumulation at these levels. I sold puts at $226, cashed out +40%. Now I can afford lunch

 

[Chunky Jr.]

My guess with JB is that he felt he has done all that he can do there, and they must have someone from Maxwell who can take over as battery guru.

 

[Singuy]

So someone please explain to someone who doesn’t know anything about corporate finance how it works with losses and cash flow. From what I understand they lost 408 million. Ok. But how can they have 600 million more in the piggy bank now than they did last quarter? And if so why care about losses?

Not an owner (but an EV driver) Huge tesla fan.

Thank you.

And to add to this "paper loss", it become real loses (subtract money from the bank) when Tesla need to pay for the money they borrowed for capex back. Hence the large bond payment that happened a few months back.

 

[Tenable]

So where is the going bankrupt argument that sent Tesla to 180?
Tesla did not make a profit, but:
1. had positive cash flow, and all the cash from the new shares, and all the cash they had in Q1, most cash ever
2. there is not a demand problem as Q3 sales are ahead of Q2 and they lowered the price of their top end models (making a Tesla reach on top of a Tesla reach possible, who won’t go to a P3D- from a 3SR+?)
3. lowered prices are because manufacturing cost reductions and battery supply has opened up, so margins stay the same, not a negative for putting FSD cars on the street
4. giant earnings FSD bomb looming. Why would you be long term short when you don’t know when this is going to drop? I can see short term short (day or week), but months or for bankruptcy? There’s 500,000 cars sitting on a $2k-7k upgrade. There won’t be a earnings problem when that happens. And that is just with the current inventory, not with an exponentially growing fleet.

Likely because many shorts believe that FSD recognition will be a one time event. All the progress Tesla has made still isn’t generating enough revenue to scare them. The income it is generating may or may not be sustainable in their minds. If you’ve been short a long time, it probably feels like Tesla has to continue pulling off miracles.. which isn’t exactly untrue. Old money loves betting against miracles and optimism.

 

[Drax7]

Why leave?

—> 16 years in not simply “start up mode” stress, but “Elon Musk start up mode” stress. The last 6 years of this daily tension while knowing you, and generations to come, are ridiculously wealthy.

—> Since I’ve been following the company closely (2012), perhaps basically all of Tesla’s history (even while others were CEO) it had been very clear that JB was Elon’s “number 1,” so to speak. That is, his most trusted and valued contributor and companion on Tesla’s journey. Then Jerome was made head of automotive last year. What’s more autonomy has clearly by far become the most captivating area of development for Elon, and he seems quite taken with its driver, Andrej Karpathy. (gratuitous speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Musk looks at Karpathy and thinks, “hmm... there may be someone with a more capable mind than myself... and must be nice to be so consistently “chill” yet energetically positive”).

It seems JB has basically gone from sort of Elon’s little brother, always by his side (literally brought on global trips and at his side 2013-15) and presumed heir apparent when Elon leaves CEO role for more SpaceX time (which once was a strong possibility once the Model 3 hit volume production, but not too likely for years with the CEO agreement Elon made with Tesla a year or two ago)... JB seems to have gone from that to part of the second tier orbit around Elon’s focus, barely noticed amid all the energy around day-to-day drama for which Jerome is his key player, and Tesla’s perceived FSD future, led by Karpathy.

—> Elon and JB seem to have such different personalities. Somewhat speculative, but I suspect Elon’s behavior towards people grates to some extent with JB. Given the first two points above, it’s probably become harder to ignore. The intensity of the last two years and rough treatment/letting go of large groups of employees have probably also made it harder to ignore.

How exciting is the recycling business. Makes no sense from my vantage point.

 

[jerry33]

I mean I know FUD and all, but about the only unexpected event you can really claim here is JB kind of officially leaving, even though everyone seemed to know it and he didn't exactly just leave. What is different from yesterday that this stock is worth 15% less? I thought everything came in on target as advertised.

The media only picks the points they are interested in (the ones that will give them clicks). In this case it's GAAP loss and JB stepping down. Short sellers jump on this, and weak longs panic.

 

[traxila]

Doubt institutions will unload after a huge gap down day like today, especially with +$600m FCF lol. Prob seeing some accumulation at these levels. I sold puts at $226, cashed out +40%. Now I can afford lunch

Yeah, institutions in particular. If any of them saw any surprises in earnings they need to get a whole new staff as they are officially clueless. This is a coordinated and planned sell the news event, which I get, but again, why would TSLA go down to high 100s again. Based on what? Demand story - good. Cash flow story - good. Cash in bank - good. Future products and near term ramping of production - f'ing great. So really, why do you sell here?

 

[X Fan]

So you want to spend more on model S refresh to capture additional 30,000 car sales a year versus pursuing 750,000 model 3 sales and 1.5 million model Y sales a year. Perhaps they should freeze China factory until model S refresh done?

hhhm...you're a little late...3 is done & Y is already pencils down. So yes, a flagship car always helps the product line below. Accelerate Y, bring on pickup/truck/Roadster but don't forget about the S.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Any predictions for EOD SP?

No more shorting allowed for two days. Picked up short term calls in the 228 range but am looking to trade.

Unrealistic to think 235 to 240 by 4pm?

I mean I know FUD and all, but about the only unexpected event you can really claim here is JB kind of officially leaving, even though everyone seemed to know it and he didn't exactly just leave. What is different from yesterday that this stock is worth 15% less? I thought everything came in on target as advertised.

I don't think that they'll be able to breach much beyond 234. The FUDsters will want to push the stock as far down as they can, and apply heel to throat any rise. They dropped a lot of their ammo in AH, but I don't think they dropped all of it.

Allowing the stock to rise from that initial depression will just give the impression that it was the immediate reaction that caused it to drop, and the more tentative buyers will be like "maybe it wasn't so bad" and buy.

 

[Green Pete]

How exciting is the recycling business. Makes no sense from my vantage point.

If recycling old batteries is more cost effective than mining it it helps with huge supply problems in the long run. At some point you could theoretically just stop mining those resources. Thats good for the bottom line, the environment, and national security/energy independence.

 

[jerry33]

How exciting is the recycling business. Makes no sense from my vantage point.

Pretty exciting when you consider the regulations that most of the developed world is moving to. It will be harder to open new mines and it will be much harder to put things in landfills. Many cities are starting to realize that they can build no more landfills and they have to stop the inflow of rubbish.

 

[ReflexFunds]

My guess with JB is that he felt he has done all that he can do there, and they must have someone from Maxwell who can take over as battery guru.

Drew has already been running Tesla’s cell manufacturing R&D for some time. Presumably that’s how he earned his promotion.

 

[SO16]

16 million car sales in the US alone disagrees with that notion. If what you state is true, then why the "excitement" over a S and X refresh? I tell you why, the millennial you speak of have a shorter attention span of two seconds and are waiting for the next "new".

It seems the raven sales increased though, yes? Should know more next quarter.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tried to grab 100 more @225, but was a bit too greedy. Raised to @227. I may be chasing a moving target but that's okay.

 

[Jayjs20]

GG my 400 Jan21. Looks like hitting break even by 2020 isn't going to happen.

 

[dww12]

How exciting is the recycling business. Makes no sense from my vantage point.

Maybe if there is TWH/yr being produced it will be necessary. I like the earlier comment that there are capable battery gurus coming from Maxwell.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tried to grab 100 more @225, but was a bit too greedy. Raised to @227. I may be chasing a moving target but that's okay.

I know I've been oggling those lovely buy prices too, but alas, my pinch of powder won't become available until midnext week, and who knows where it'll be next week after the shock of the numbers have worn off.

Edit: And Jeep Cherokee! Look at that volume! 12.7mil already, and it's only been open less than two hours! I don't think I've ever seen it trade so high in volume since I've started tracking it (then again, I'm quite new).

I'm surprised the stock is holding as well as it is with those numbers.