Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Just buying the raw materials to produce at that scale would be multiple billions in working capital, the CapEx would also be enormous.

They don't need to buy all the materials up front. Nor do they need a bunch of cash. Just like with the 3, they can sell the completed goods before they have to pay for the ingredients. Further, for large scale installations (or even PW installs), they can get deposits up front.

CapEx may not be so bad with the internally designed and sourced equipment.

 

[Remus]

Cost of ownership for a car is the least if you just buy a 10k used civic. There's not enough "savings" provided from cheaper cost to run will ever fill the 20-30k deficiency over the lifetime of the car (minus FSD+making money or whatever).

A 10k Civic usually has 70k miles with cheapest config.

You seriously think it's a fair comparison against a brand new model 3

 

[Remus]

I was just pointing out that factoring the lower cost of ownership of justifying spending 40k+ on an EV is just that, a justification. It certainly makes more sense vs a similarly priced car but this is like those age old arguments with your wife's uncontrollable spending habits because she claims how "you have to spend money to save money".

Definite similar priced?

Take Honda Accord in CA for example with gas price at about 4 and 30mpg it's .13 per mile. 150k miles that is nearly 20k. SR model 3 runs at more than 5 miles per kwh. So you only spend less than 5k fuel cost, a 15k savings for fuel only!

Factoring other ICE specific maintenance such as oil change, alternator, belt, o2 sensors, water pump, brakes, transmission flush, starters, annual emission check, etc, conservatively 10k on ICE specific repairs only. And only if you avoid some of the Honda's problematic transmissions or nissan CVT, or Toyota's engine sludge.

Now it's a savings of more than 25k dollars on the lifetime of the car, only at 150k miles the model 3 would have plenty of life left with it's drive train but the ICE is pretty much done for unless you are the very lucky few.

 

[Thekiwi]

In fairness, the $35,400 Model 3 is just a hair above the average new car price in the US. After federal tax credit, it’s below it.

To reach the average person, you just need a used car market for them. That’ll happen in a few years, but there’s not much Tesla can do to accelerate it. Few people that bought a car last month are looking to sell it now.

The used market for model 3 is going to be fascinating to follow over the next few years - the car, even the base model, is such an economical drive that demand for used models is going to be insane just from those using a car for a business, not to mention of course for anyone just wanting a Tesla by any means possible. For instance I really struggle to see any road worthy Model 3 selling used for less than 20k, even if its a SR with 200k miles driven.

 

[KSilver2000]

There are 75 million single family homes or town homes in U.S. actually most people don't live in apartments.

Somewhat True. The ~75M number is owner-occupied housing units, which also includes condos, mobile homes, manufactured homes, and trailers.

Besides that, there are almost 50M households renting, of which a majority live in some form of multi-unit housing.

It’s safe to say about half of all households do not have access to 240 charging currently.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Somewhat True. The ~75M number is owner-occupied housing units, which also includes condos, mobile homes, manufactured homes, and trailers.

Besides that, there are almost 50M households renting, of which a majority live in some form of multi-unit housing.

It’s safe to say about half of all households do not have access to 240 charging currently.

Apt and multi-unit owners better get on that. Could charge premiums. Premium Charge?

 

[StealthP3D]

Cost of ownership for a car is the least if you just buy a 10k used civic. There's not enough "savings" provided from cheaper cost to run will ever fill the 20-30k deficiency over the lifetime of the car (minus FSD+making money or whatever).

I'm comparing the cost to a comparable car. Which means it has to be new. Yes, a $10,000 used Honda Civic is one of the cheaper ways to get from point A to point B in your own car. However, what people are saying is the Tesla Model 3 is so compelling they are willing to spend more (realizing that it doesn't have a higher total cost of ownership than a comparable new gas car). It's important to point out that the comparable new gas car might not be compelling enough to get this type of person to buy new while the Model 3 is.

This is not a difficult concept.

 

[ggr]

Mod: everyone seems to agree that anecdotes about affordability are off topic and irrelevant, so we can leave that discussion behind now, right? --ggr.

Mod: let me be more forceful. STOP THIS DISCUSSION NOW. --ggr.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I have vastly more faith in InsideEVs monthly numbers than in EV-sales.blog's.

Orders in Canada went through the roof with the new incentive program. Someone on TMC reported 800 deliveries per week in the Vancouver store alone. I think that was inflated, or some sort of peak rate, but it's clear there was a huge delivery ramp.

There's a reason Tesla focused on North American deliveries instead of just US in June, and it's not because Canada was trudging along at a couple thousand per month.

I always presumed Jose Pontes from EV-Sales blog worked on InsideEV's Tesla numbers. He writes for InsideEVs in any case and uses the same numbers in his estimates.

8k Model 3 deliveries in Canada in June just seems too many. That would put Model 3 at 4% of the entire Canada auto market, with Model 3 June month sales roughly equal to Toyota Camry 1H19 YTD sales.
I have no idea really though, so who knows. I saw the anecdotes of 800 per week etc as well, but i assumed that was over exuberance somewhere along the communication chain.

Also, I find this from Autonews highly entertaining. Canada June sales down 9.5% as losing streak hits 16 months. The methodology they use to estimate Tesla June Canada sales at 650 is beyond me. I think the number is made up solely to give Mercedes and BMW some company in their (most likely Tesla driven) luxury sales collapses.

"Luxury automakers didn’t fare well, either. Mercedes-Benz sales were down 19 percent while BMW fell 16 percent.
And Tesla sales were cut in nearly half, down 47 percent to an estimated 650 deliveries."

 

[KSilver2000]

For instance I really struggle to see any road worthy Model 3 selling used for less than 20k, even if its a SR with 500k miles driven.

Really?? I know people love their Tesla’s, but that’s a little out there.

If an average car is driven 15k miles/yr, a car with 500k miles would be about 33 years old. I’m fairly confident a 33-yo SR will cost A LOT less than $20K.

In fact, I bet a SR in 5 years will be worth a lot less than $20K, contrary to EM’s fascination about it appreciating. I’ve been following the used 3 pricing, and I’ve recently seen a few 2017 LR 3 with 10k miles sold for just a hair under $40K directly from Tesla.

 

[Remus]

Apt and multi-unit owners better get on that. Could charge premiums. Premium Charge?

With EV only less than 2% of the market share, why don't we target the easier half of the market first? Buy the time EV has 30% of market share, the charging infrastructure would be drastically different, the apartment market would follow naturally.

Add 240v outlet to an ordinary house is really not hard at all for homes with a newer panel.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

The used market for model 3 is going to be fascinating to follow over the next few years

Agreed, but I expect that market may be very very small, just because the car is so cutting edge, that its not going to feel 'dated' for a long time, plus EVs tend to age pretty well anyway, and because Tesla are so busy with the Y, the Semi, the roadster and the pickup, that its going to be ages before the 3 gets enough of a makeover to make existing owners upgrade so..... who exactly is going to be selling their model 3?
I've had my 2015 model S about as long as i normally own a car...and even though I love teslas and love the idea of AP2 etc... I dont see myself getting a new car for quite a while. (probably until FSD is truly usable).

...on the other hand, the used market for highish end ICE cars may explode as all those jaguar/mercedes/bmw owners realize they want a tesla, and the used market for prius/leafs may explode too as owners of those realize there is a true EV they would rather own.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Teslas literally exploding

Your thinking of Konas. Hyundai Kona Electric Explodes, Blows Hole In Garage: Cause Unknown

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

You can buy a NEW LR AWD for under $40k from tesla today

Really? How?

 

[Sudre]

Really?? I know people love their Tesla’s, but that’s a little out there.

If an average car is driven 15k miles/yr, a car with 500k miles would be about 33 years old. I’m fairly confident a 33-yo SR will cost A LOT less than $20K.

IF ( a very large IF ) FSD becomes an actual thing people, companies, Tesla and myself will be buying any $20K Model 3 and renting it out like a taxi service. Yes I agree the used market is going to be interesting.

 

[elasalle]

Somewhat True. The ~75M number is owner-occupied housing units, which also includes condos, mobile homes, manufactured homes, and trailers.

Besides that, there are almost 50M households renting, of which a majority live in some form of multi-unit housing.

It’s safe to say about half of all households do not have access to 240 charging currently.

ZERO homes in the US have gas in their front yard, yet they drive ICE cars. Something to ponder on...
As charging becomes faster, cheaper and more ubiquitous, functionality will be the same as a gas station (for those who need alternative means)

 

[neroden]

With the sale of Teslas literally exploding in 2018/2019

No, Hyundai Konas are literally exploding.
Hyundai Kona Electric Explodes, Blows Hole In Garage: Cause Unknown

Tesla sales may be figuratively exploding, but given previous media scares, I suggest you don't use the phrase "literally exploding" unless you mean it...

 

[neroden]

Somewhat True. The ~75M number is owner-occupied housing units, which also includes condos, mobile homes, manufactured homes, and trailers.

Besides that, there are almost 50M households renting, of which a majority live in some form of multi-unit housing.

It’s safe to say about half of all households do not have access to 240 charging currently.

No it isn't. That's actually wrong. There are a very large number of people renting single-family homes or duplexes. If those don't have access to 240V charging, it's often easy to install and the landlord will generally cooperate.

 

[KarenRei]

Sorry to interrupt Re: GF3:

SoylentBrown on Twitter

I've seen stuff from this guy before. He's... interesting. Seems very intelligent, and usually comes across as quite credible. Interacts heavily with TSLAQ, but doesn't seem to be "one of them". Appears to be on someone's payroll.

 

[KSilver2000]

Apt and multi-unit owners better get on that. Could charge premiums. Premium Charge?

The extremely vast majority of multi-unit housing renters in the US do not have a household income to make an EV car purchase feasible—yet.

The extremely vast majority of multi-unit housing stock are 30-50 years old. It’s cost-prohibitive for these landlords to provide charging stalls like a ChargePoint pedestal. (Of course it’s easy to install a basic residential charger, but no way to bill electric use to individual users then). A client of mine contacted ChargePoint previously to ask because his property is in a higher income area and he was curious.... ~$7,500 per charger all-in, meaning charger, meter and panel upgrade, trenching, permits, everything. Of course, it could be cheaper the more you do at once. Then on top of that, it would be at least $3/day if you want ChargePoint to maintain it. Even if the owner’s electricity rate was just a flat $.10/kWh, which is unheard of in CA, the payback period would be unimaginable. This is why even new apartments being built these days don’t all have many chargers, if any.

Might be a little cheaper to install in Midwest states because lower labor rates. But, those places also tend to have cheaper apartments with lower income tenants.