7k Y per week by 4q 2020 sounds ambitious. We have to figure out where the cells will come from before we can get a decent estimate on timing.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Or "People prefer the original to a knock-off".
It may take more time than that. The average used car is around $20k, and accounts for 2/3 of the car buyers. As EV shifts to mainstream, other headwinds come to play like:
- Charging becomes more of an issue (e.g. live in apartments, don't have 240v, and can't afford to install it)
- Tax credits are less effective for families that make less
- Credit is tighter so the tendency is to sacrifice long term returns for short term savings (ICE discount vs gas savings)
- People have less time, so charging at superchargers is a larger drawback
Not saying it won't get there, but the cost of the EV is not the only thing that holds back adoption for the average person. The infrastructure won't be there in just a few years.
There are 75 million single family homes or town homes in U.S. actually most people don't live in apartments.
Old cars cost much more in maintenance and repair. We have painful first hand experience back when we were poor graduate students.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I have vastly more faith in InsideEVs monthly numbers than in EV-sales.blog's.
Orders in Canada went through the roof with the new incentive program. Someone on TMC reported 800 deliveries per week in the Vancouver store alone. I think that was inflated, or some sort of peak rate, but it's clear there was a huge delivery ramp.
There's a reason Tesla focused on North American deliveries instead of just US in June, and it's not because Canada was trudging along at a couple thousand per month.
Net Worth Percentile Calculator – United States (and Average)
Top 9% without house, top 12% with house.
But this doesn't calculate average earnings.
When factoring earnings, the top 1% income earners have slightly more than 1 million saved.
Here's how much money Americans have in savings at every income level
Which means secret millionaires are somewhere in between the 1% and 9%.
Now a secret car enthusiast millionaires are even more rare, since the average secret millionaire (meaning people who makes a decent living but mostly just saves all their lives) are not into materialistic things or putting lots of money into depreciating assets. They usually drive a normal car, bought used or maybe new and drives them to the ground more for the utility.
Now you have the ultra rare birds on this forum who are secret car enthusiast millionaires and also Tsla shareholders. The typical secret millionaire doesn't believe in individual stock picking, ESPECIALLY a highly speculative stock.
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There is little difference in the actual time spent between a Supercharger and a gas station because at a gas station you have to stay with the car while it's filling before you can pick up items in the store.
Context is key. This entire thread chain started with this post of mine
"So I thought about the price lowering thing . Adding what he says about the desirability, the current demand, and how people are trading up for the 3, it's pretty obvious what people are doing for the sake of the mission. People are willing to put themselves in financial hardships to transition out of fossil fuel. The "desirability is very high but people just have a hard time affording our cars". I think its the desire to curb climate change is what he is talking about. People are pinching pennies, trading out of their price class for the sake of climate change. There is a reason the model 3 sales more than all cars in the same class combined. Its very odd to have a small car sell so well at such high price point. The general public couldnt afford it and yet people are buying it up like it's a Toyota.
Knowing that in an interview with 60 mins of him saying "we will work harder" after knowing people were in hardship for the sake of electricity cost, he is not at all out of character to work his ass off to reduce the price of the model 3."
I was not explaining how Tesla is going to have trouble selling cars. I was explaining that the average people are PROBABLY trading up more for the mission, putting themselves in hardship which explains WHY Elon tries to explain how "the desire for our cars(meaning the desire to support the mission for sustainable energy) is very high but people literally can't afford it". Everyone takes this statement as "no *sugar* sherlock, that's kind of how supply and demand work, you keep lowering the price until there's enough demand"..But my case is that Elon is saying something more here.
Get it now? Man bulls here really tries to burn everything that is remotely negative with fire even without the right context.
Last April I bought a model 3 long range all wheel drive, replacing my Hyundai Sonata. A year prior to that, I went crazy and purchased a Genesis , mainly because I was very impressed with the reliability track record of my Sonata, was ready for a nice luxury car, was still wary of BEVs, and that car had a very impressive suite of standard driver assistance options. At the time I was unaware that Tesla had - even then - superior driver assistance and other tech features that were standard. Had Tesla been advertising even a bit back then, my decision mught well have been quite different.
Fast-forward to today. Unlike many others, I have the M3 because I love its technology and how it drives first and foremost; the climate advantages are gravy. I have to force myself to drive the Genesis once a week to prevent square tires and gummed-up fuel injectors. When I do, I inevitably find myself setting the wipers off because I am so used to the right-hand stalk controlling the PDNR shifting in the Tesla!
The two things the Genesis has that I wish the Tesla had: (1) The 360 degree camera view and (2) The heads-up display
I'd sell the G80 but I'd take a huge bath on the immediate post-purchase depreciation that occurred when I drove it off the lot. It has one saving grace: it is a dream to drive on the highway, although the car guzzles gas at a high rate.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
No, I don't "get it" because you are pushing a narrative that is not even remotely true. That "average" people are sacrificing their budget to buy a Tesla primarily for altruistic environmental reasons. Also the implication that this means the market for such cars is limited. The fact is the Model 3 is *less expensive* overall than a car like the Honda Accord or similar which doesn't even come close to the Model 3 in many fundamental ways like driving dynamics, acceleration, styling and general desirability.
I've met a lot of Model 3 new owners and I can tell you, absolutely, their excitement is not due to being so thrilled that when they take delivery their tailpipe emissions will end. No, the excitement is because they are thrilled to be able to own and drive such an amazing and desirable product. Don't get me wrong, most of these people are glad they will be contributing fewer emissions, but that is not the primary reason they are excited about buying a Tesla.
So these people you were talking to are the ones who can easily afford any car or ones who can barely afford a Model 3? So can you explain why Elon keep dropping prices after every tax cliff if affordability is an afterthought vs driving dynamic to the average person?
If the car is worth 50k because it drives better than a car that's worth 50k with better tech than a 50k car(which it does)..wouldn't the average person just appreciate this thinking they are getting a gigantic bargain at 39.9k already? So why is he talking about affordability as if this average person even cares?
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Bet TSLA
Active Member
Actually, the more you post the more deaf you seem. You are not listening. No, there are few car enthusiasts here. Many Tesla enthusiasts. There is no evidence for what you believe and plenty against.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Well, you are changing the subject but OK.
The typical Model 3 owner I'm talking about is not accustomed to spending so much on a car but realized the cost of ownership would be lower than an equivalent gas car. They are also informed about the many advantages of an EV in terms of comfort, performance, convenience and quietness an EV can provide.
The price of the Model 3 is becoming less expensive to manufacture with the volume of cars being produced. Affordability is not an after-thought, it's integral to the purchase decision. The Model 3 has so many ownership advantages that an informed consumer will agree to pay more than they are accustomed to because they are aware that it is primarily an "upfront" cost that will pay for itself over time. Additionally, the product is better. Many of the purchasers are not accustomed to buying their cars new, preferring to let others take the initial depreciation. However, there was not really any heavily depreciated Model 3's on the used market so it was a matter of only paying a couple of thousand extra bucks by buying new over used. And, as we have seen, Model 3's (and Tesla's in general) have been holding their value better than comparable gas cars. As more and more higher mileage 3's end up on the used market, EV ownership will trickle down to those with even lower incomes and less price-conscious people will treat themselves to the newest Teslas once again.
With the sale of Teslas literally exploding in 2018/2019, it will be one to three years before many of those less price-conscious owners are ready to trade up to a new Tesla again. So it makes sense for Tesla to walk the price down considering this factor, coupled with the declining tax credit and the increase in efficiency brought by increasing production volumes.
It seems that a storm is brewing on the horizon for the zombie car culture of the past
Visit Carhenge: Carhenge ® – of Alliance, Nebraska
Now if someone were to say this earlier then it's actually a pretty good point. But being a Tesla enthusiast means so much. I was touching upon the mission statement the most while others may just like the tech or the progress nature of the company. But instead people keep telling me how they used to spend x, y z on a CAR but would spend So much more on a Tesla car without even explaining the context of why except that it's a better car..almost making it seem like you're some kind of secret car enthusiast.
Cost of ownership for a car is the least if you just buy a 10k used civic. There's not enough "savings" provided from cheaper cost to run will ever fill the 20-30k deficiency over the lifetime of the car (minus FSD+making money or whatever).
You can also eat only canned beans and live in a one room furnished apartment. But not everyone wants to live like that.
2022 is my prediction for a new S and X. Not sooner because of so much in the pipeline. Not later because the S will be ten years old; waiting longer would be insincere and unprideful; and there will be competition from Europe (really).
Probably correct. My expectation is that a body refresh will come when they get the Maxwell cells, because that would leapfrog the 3 and any so called competition and they will have to redesign the battery case anyway.
I was just pointing out that factoring the lower cost of ownership of justifying spending 40k+ on an EV is just that, a justification. It certainly makes more sense vs a similarly priced car but this is like those age old arguments with your wife's uncontrollable spending habits because she claims how "you have to spend money to save money".
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