Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

While overall message is EV positive The race to the electric car is just getting started
the specifics and speculations are an outrageous VW lobbying... Nevermind Tesla plans for 3M cars in 2023, you can definitely see who the winner is in 2025. Looks like Tesla will be making 400k cars in 2025, it just has so many problems that it will stay at the same production level for the next 6 years. All new models will cannibalize the existing, it seems.
Seriously, are these guys dumb or just shamelessly pushing whatever they are paid for?
View attachment 441932 View attachment 441933

I firmly believe it’s just ignorance. I know some people from the Detroit area who think because Ford invested in Rivian that they are a major EV player. I really think that people have no idea how the supply chain works anymore. As someone who used to work in supply chain in simple products out of china I know it’s a nightmare. So these legacy analysts are saying, look, VW came out with a new model in year X and achieved a volume of Y by year Z. They don’t realize that while an EV and a ICE look very similar that from a supply chain standpoint they are more akin to horse breeding and camel breeding.

Tesla’s early struggles were with finding people willing to give them a decent contract on door panels and windows. I’m sure those sales people are all kicking themselves now because after Tesla figured it out they became the gatekeeper of batteries. Not impossible to replicate but it’s just a stupid (millennial stupid meaning large and unlikely rather than poor choice) capital investment that thank god they finally found Panasonic to jump onboard (however reluctantly) with. The analysts will catch up on a few years and nobody will ever question any of there comments in the 24 hour news cycle.

It is what it is. Ignore them. This is why Musk always bitches about regretting taking Tesla public. If he hadn’t I bet Tesla and the world would be better off. Everyone makes mistakes. This will probably be a textbook inditement of capitalism and the free market in 100 years.

 

[Prunesquallor]

While overall message is EV positive The race to the electric car is just getting started
the specifics and speculations are an outrageous VW lobbying... Nevermind Tesla plans for 3M cars in 2023, you can definitely see who the winner is in 2025. Looks like Tesla will be making 400k cars in 2025, it just has so many problems that it will stay at the same production level for the next 6 years. All new models will cannibalize the existing, it seems.
Seriously, are these guys dumb or just shamelessly pushing whatever they are paid for?
View attachment 441932 View attachment 441933

Wow. THIS ought to be interesting to revisit in six years.

 

[Green Pete]

Wow. THIS ought to be interesting to revisit in six years.

Musk did say ~3-4 years ago that the only company that could still give them a run for their money was VW. I’ll agree though that the above analysis is beyond deluded.

 

[sparcs]

While overall message is EV positive The race to the electric car is just getting started

what a clown. even the South Koreans in this line are laughing at the guy who made that chart:

South Koreans in Line at Tesla Store, Tae Koan, Ko on Twitter

 

[carterm2]

Can't wait for battery tech day... I can't help but wonder how it will be possible for the other companies to scale up BEV production given their reliance on ICE and ICE service revenue. I just don't see anyone making batteries in volume.

I was hopeful for Porsche and Audi, and I hope that they find success with BEV...
Perhaps there will be a Chinese company with a low cost city car that will go worldwide.

Q.
Is there concern out there about competition for Tesla? It seems every "killer" is more of a lame duck with low production volume.

Q.
I have seen video of Model 3's on AP driving on what looks like city streets and two lane roads. Are there different versions of AP for the Model 3, relative the the Model S and X?

Q
Is the macro environment as ominous as I think it is? I am fearful.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Musk did say ~3-4 years ago that the only company that could still give them a run for their money was VW. I’ll agree though that the above analysis is beyond deluded.

I really do wish we didn’t have to laugh at this stuff. A whole bunch of legitimate Tesla competitors would be great for the mission.

But it’s just WTF are these guys doing? No Model 3/Y competition within sight? They really can’t get the ICE monkey off their backs?

 

[Fact Checking]

I really do wish we didn’t have to laugh at this stuff. A whole bunch of legitimate Tesla competitors would be great for the mission.

That's not certain, at all: chances are that if they kill Tesla they'll simply slow down the EV transition again, like they did in the last 10 years.

Best outcome for the "EV mission" would probably be the bankruptcy of at least one major ICE OEM:

• pure EV makers would become the "safe" investment bets,
• it would also free up factory space, automotive workers and captured consumers (~99% of whom are still buying gascars),
• might disrupt the current negative media narrative about EVs,
• it might also make the current ICE and fossil fuel subsidies of more than $20,000 per new ICE car in the U.S. alone more risky politically.

... accelerating the transition to sustainable energy via creative destruction.

But it’s just WTF are these guys doing? No Model 3/Y competition within sight? They really can’t get the ICE monkey off their backs?

This (unverified) tweet chain gives a good insight into the structural failures of the ICE industry I believe:

"Having had a close look at i3 manufacturing, BMW did an absolutely horrific job with many aspects of the i3 program. The design wasn't appropriate, the line was far too costly and complex, but the worst was they made a car no one wanted. BMW's fail was their own here."

"Dealers actually spend the bulk of the advertising costs - depending on mfg some 4 to 6%. While the OEM isnt losing this, it does get passed to customers and does cut into margins one way or another. The OEM kicks in another 2-4% for an overhead of 6 to 10%."

"Having a supply chain is part of the problem. Existing carmakers are probably going to have to shed their suppliers to compete on price. Cars cost more than necessary because there are 4 to 8 layers of suppliers all adding their own markups..."

"The Germams will struggle with speed. Yes they can manufacture well. But I am extremely skeptical of their ability to pivot quickly. And by quickly I literally mean pivot over 4 to 10 yr timeframes."

If those statements are true (which I believe they are) then many ICE OEMs are in a similar situation as Arianespace trying to compete with SpaceX: hopelessly outclassed, with only subsidies and inertia keeping them alive.

Not advice.

 

[kengchang]

 

[Artful Dodger]

“There must be an issue - there are Pages Upon Pages Of Forum Posts About It.”
/S and /Q

TSLA lost $2.75 Billion in Mkt Cap today. But we did gain 5.5 Billion OT comments, ie:

• Regen Braking:
  • 1-pedal braking
  • Porsche brakes
  • LEAF brakes
    
  • hypermiling

• Cat Food:
  • urinary tracts
  • dry vs wet
  • fat vs thin

Any guess what time the "yield curve" was first mentioned here today?

Spoiler: Breaking

11:59 ET (ta, @KarenRei ) SP then? $224.92

Regards,
Lodger

 

[SpaceCash]

TSLA lost $2.75 Billion in Mkt Cap today. But we did gain 5.5 Billion OT comments, ie:

• Regen Braking:
  • 1-pedal braking
  • Porsche brakes
  • LEAF brakes
    
  • hypermiling

• Cat Food:
  • urinary tracts
  • dry vs wet
  • fat vs thin

Any guess what time the "yield curve" was first mentioned here today?

Spoiler: Breaking

11:59 ET (ta, @KarenRei ) SP then? $224.92

Regards,
Lodger

I'm not gonna lie, I enjoy almost all of the "OT" posts except the political ones.

I also enjoyed snagging some $220.00s today. Will snag more in 2 weeks whether it's at $120, $220, $320, or $420

 

[Runarbt]

We've entered a very strange era in TSLA investing. Did I miss it - but has anyone been bringing up the bad macros today and TSLA being down 4%. Do we care anymore?

Nope, we just dont care.

I am immune I think.. been in this game for too long. I know what the future brings. :-D We all feel the Tesla love out there - so we just dont care about shorts, ICE manufacturer and their game. In the long run they dont really matter.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

TSLA lost $2.75 Billion in Mkt Cap today. But we did gain 5.5 Billion OT comments, ie:

• Regen Braking:
  • 1-pedal braking
  • Porsche brakes
  • LEAF brakes
    
  • hypermiling

• Cat Food:
  • urinary tracts
  • dry vs wet
  • fat vs thin

Any guess what time the "yield curve" was first mentioned here today?

Spoiler: Breaking

11:59 ET (ta, @KarenRei ) SP then? $224.92

Regards,
Lodger

Sorry, on vacation in Italy so low on moderating energy. And a lot of that is needed against such an avalanche of OT posts. Where to even start in this OT galore? Let's at least try to keep it focussed on cars, not cats. Investor stuff related to Tesla is also allowed.

On the bright side: I saw a black Model 3 yesterday evening in a country that is notoriously ICE-addicted.

 

[KarenRei]

Just noting that any potential for Tesla having sandbagged MY release times is probably looking pretty smart right now. If the world goes into recession, the last thing Tesla wants is to have rushed a lot of cash out the door in order to create a surge of production. Yes, MY does expand the market somewhat, but it also cannibalizes the 3 - while 3 production will be surging due to the (current) uncorking of Fremont plus GF3 going online. If global auto sales are down due to a recession, said cannibalism would really hurt; M3 needs new EV demand growth to compensate for MY cannibalization.

When going into a recession, you need cash. With an unambitious starting date on MY production, Tesla can delay capital expenditures as needed and make sure that its cash supply remains strong.

Right now it looks like pretty much everyone is trying to cause a global recession. The US and China are ever deeper into a trade war, at the same time that China is having to try to crush dissent in Hong Kong, while Russia is doing the same in Moscow while simultaneously pushing toward a new nuclear arms race. Britain is doing their best to try to push Europe (but particularly themselves) into a recession, while Germany may already be going into a recession. It's a mess, and any party doing this could step back from the brink at any time. But will they?

 

[MC3OZ]

Can't wait for battery tech day... I can't help but wonder how it will be possible for the other companies to scale up BEV production given their reliance on ICE and ICE service revenue. I just don't see anyone making batteries in volume.

I was hopeful for Porsche and Audi, and I hope that they find success with BEV...
Perhaps there will be a Chinese company with a low cost city car that will go worldwide.

Q.
Is there concern out there about competition for Tesla? It seems every "killer" is more of a lame duck with low production volume.

Q.
I have seen video of Model 3's on AP driving on what looks like city streets and two lane roads. Are there different versions of AP for the Model 3, relative the the Model S and X?

Q
Is the macro environment as ominous as I think it is? I am fearful.

A. Competitors will not have the batteries

A. AP is the same for Model 3/S/X.

A. Macros .. who knows... it is wise to at least consider that a downturn/recession may happen.

In the long run, my view is downturns often act as a change accelerator, and Tesla is on the right side of the argument...

 

[Azam]

I firmly believe it’s just ignorance. I know some people from the Detroit area who think because Ford invested in Rivian that they are a major EV player. I really think that people have no idea how the supply chain works anymore. As someone who used to work in supply chain in simple products out of china I know it’s a nightmare. So these legacy analysts are saying, look, VW came out with a new model in year X and achieved a volume of Y by year Z. They don’t realize that while an EV and a ICE look very similar that from a supply chain standpoint they are more akin to horse breeding and camel breeding.

Tesla’s early struggles were with finding people willing to give them a decent contract on door panels and windows. I’m sure those sales people are all kicking themselves now because after Tesla figured it out they became the gatekeeper of batteries. Not impossible to replicate but it’s just a stupid (millennial stupid meaning large and unlikely rather than poor choice) capital investment that thank god they finally found Panasonic to jump onboard (however reluctantly) with. The analysts will catch up on a few years and nobody will ever question any of there comments in the 24 hour news cycle.

It is what it is. Ignore them. This is why Musk always bitches about regretting taking Tesla public. If he hadn’t I bet Tesla and the world would be better off. Everyone makes mistakes. This will probably be a textbook inditement of capitalism and the free market in 100 years.

I also believe it is partly ignorance partly fueled by confirmation bias.The best example for this would be "Autoline TV" interviews on youtube. You see this industry mavericks that have a very different set of beliefs and as an observer it is shocking!

 

[NicoV]

Wow. THIS ought to be interesting to revisit in six years.

As interesting as all the predictions of how Intel’s new Itanium chip would take over the computing world.
Spoiler: That chip is now commonly referred to as ‘Itanic’.

 

[Matias]

TSLA lost $2.75 Billion in Mkt Cap today. But we did gain 5.5 Billion OT comments, ie:

• Regen Braking:
  • 1-pedal braking
  • Porsche brakes
  • LEAF brakes
    
  • hypermiling

• Cat Food:
  • urinary tracts
  • dry vs wet
  • fat vs thin

Any guess what time the "yield curve" was first mentioned here today?

Spoiler: Breaking

11:59 ET (ta, @KarenRei ) SP then? $224.92

Regards,
Lodger

Yes. It is funny, that it is OK to talk about e.g. cat food on a Tesla market thread, but not about e.g. Tesla's service
When I came to this thread yesterdays TSLA was (among others of course) down 5-6%, but people were talking about cat food and hypermilling/ 1 pedal driving..

 

[KarenRei]

A. Macros .. who knows... it is wise to at least consider that a downturn/recession may happen.

The very fact that the market fell so much is the market trying to price in the risk that a recession happens.

People may or may not be done with the slide from yesterday. They'll also all be trying to figure out when the "bottom" is to get back in, based on when it stops seeming like the indicators may get worse and when it looks like they're going to start getting better.

On top of what the macros are doing, of course, you have to factor in what a given company is doing. So with Tesla, it's things like how sales data is evolving as the end of Q3 approaches.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Don’t want to add to the OTiness, but I’m surprised no one's pointed out that EM didn’t found Tesla - it was Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning.

Technically true, but Elon made Tesla with his investment and brilliant cost engineering. There's no doubt in my mind that he is one of very few people who could get it off the ground.

 

[Compton]

Technically true, but Elon made Tesla with his investment and brilliant cost engineering. There's no doubt in my mind that he is one of very few people who could get it off the ground.

For those interested, I suggest reading Ashlee Vance's "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future" for the background story. The company would have failed in the early phase without EM.