Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

@ZeApelido
Apologies then
You certainly came across as a “care bear

Understood, the problem is critical bulls and care bears are going to have overlapping sentiments sometimes.

You can't ignore the critical bulls just because you really want to get rid of the care bears.

Your money is worth more than that

 

[dondy]

few small reminders.
Solar City was installing solar farms everywhere. There prime client was actually "Target." with bigger solar farm park than Walmart actually.



Since I see "California" in the top of the list of Walmart fires, I believe that the reason was the combination of unproper roof design (which WalMart will now apparently finally rebuild) with corresponding over-hitting and probably unsuitable for that task commercial DC isolators and DC-connectors applied by Tesla and WalMart contractors. A standard problem for such buildings is Air Conditioning exhaust. All this heat extracted inside has to be removed somewhere. If people are stupid they just do it on the unprepared roof.

This suit will go nowhere and will joint long list of legal duds against Tesla.

 

[Nocturnal]

Is it time to make fossil fuels pay for their own societal costs by taxing gasoline and diesel to reflect their true costs to society?

Air Pollution And Your Child's Health | Gas 2

This news should be front and center. The true cost of this pollution must be astronomical once it's considered what this dysfunction costs business and industry, the justice and penal system and the health care system. This is in addition to the costs of global warming and rising sea levels.

Maybe obvious, but we also have to point out the huge cost of military interventions overseas. If I want to be liberal with assigning causes, we can claim that 9/11, both wars in Iraq, Syria/ISIS, Afghanistan, the Iranian hostage crisis and recent posturing are all directly linked to our need to keep the supply of oil stable (and as a "byproduct" make sure oil companies keep raking in the cheddar). I'm sure there are other interventions I'm forgetting.

BTW while even I thought @neroden was going nuts on service, now I am seeing the negative service sentiment creep more and more mainstream. Non automotive comment areas, even on LinkedIn, people saying if you buy a Tesla you won't be able to get it repaired quickly.

This is a narrative problem. Neroden is right once again.

It's the classic marketing problem of 1 dissatisfied customer telling 10 people but a happy customer telling 1 person.
Telsa does need to improve there but the reality isn't as bad as people think. My big question is why are they unable to properly stock parts? If the factories are really production limited raise the damn price of the cars and devote a few runs to spare parts. I don't get it. ​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Price action today is sleepy AF

Oh yes, today is No.6 of the 7 SP 'AF's:

1. Dopey
2. Doc
3. Bashful
4. Happy
5. Grumpy
6. Sleepy
7. Sneezy

And occasionally, we get some 'Moe'...

Cheers!

P.S. Did you take some profits yesterday? This FUD is predictable AF.

 

[Foghat]

I've been wondering: with so many SolarCity installations, why only Walmart? A first pass with Google yields one hint from 11 months ago of a systemic problem: SolarCity shutdown my system, apparently a widespread wiring issue : SolarCity

Interesting how the year old posts from “whistleblower” sound exactly like the lawsuit. In the post, they tell people to google Walmart fires and that they should sell their Tesla stock because it is set to crash. Again, this post (and the others) was about a year ago. (220- 330 days old)

I think it is great you found this since it can be used potentially as evidence of a possible premeditated scheme. Clearly someone has had the stock price in mind for a year even before the “root cause analysis” was sought and demanded.

If potentially a connection between this “whistleblower” posting about the stock price crashing and the “consultant” used by Walmart, this could be material to a Tesla countersuit.

 

[SGordB]

I've been wondering: with so many SolarCity installations, why only Walmart? A first pass with Google yields one hint from 11 months ago of a systemic problem: SolarCity shutdown my system, apparently a widespread wiring issue : SolarCity

And now "a second pass," searching on the keywords <tesla solarcity solar panel fire> for dates prior to Aug 20. After going through the first page of 50 or so hits (many of them about the Walmart story because of links to it on old pages), only two stories relate to the Walmart issue:

Residential SolarCity panel fire last August, possibly due to same/similar issue as Walmart's: Solar Panel Fire - Update

Among all complaints to the BBB in 2015 against SolarCity, Vivint and SunRun, “fire” comes up only once in a complaint against SolarCity, but it’s a minor one-off accident, unrelated to any systemic problems: https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_comments/2016/06/00143-128387.pdf

 

[mongo]

"Empty building shell" is the portion of the project for which a 70% cost savings might be plausible. The building shell is made by local labor using local content under local permitting and environmental rules. All of which are known to be much cheaper in China. Robots, paint shops and such are shipped globally and are similarly priced no matter where you build your factory. 70% savings on that stuff is not credible.

The sprung structure line was way lower capEx than the the initial line. Factor in that any reuse of existing 3 line robotics is only a copy of end effectors and software plus reuse of all the documentation (+ translation) and I could see them saving 70% on the line itself. So much less NRE for a copy.

 

[uselesslogin]

I've been wondering: with so many SolarCity installations, why only Walmart? A first pass with Google yields one hint from 11 months ago of a systemic problem: SolarCity shutdown my system, apparently a widespread Ezzat wiring issue : SolarCity

Huh, good find. So they are actually dealing with a vendor recall and therefore likely not actually incompetent. Obviously they would not agree to remove all their systems if it is simply an issue with connectors.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Was there any unusual Options activity yesterday before news broke of the Walmart action?

I also note that Ameritrade (?) raised their margin requirements on TSLA from 45% to 55% yesterday seemingly w/o news.

 

[larmor]

The apparent or purported negativity around tesla is just traditional ICE manufacturers, oil chain and oil chain producers rearranging the deck chairs. It is a good thing that e-tron, i pace, leaf, and taycan (taken?) are coming out, and the market is so vast that there is alot of room for alot of EV manufacturers.

The offer for solar rental was a great move to highlight the mission of tesla, to bring clean energy. The pivot is great, and likely predictable, but takes a longer time to implement due to nature of EVs and solar panels-- vs. pcs to phones to apps to streaming service pivot. Personally was looking at solar panels for purchase in texas, (can't rent here) and price came down from tesla by 20% for solar panels as they intro'd the rentals as well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The sprung structure line was way lower capEx than the the initial line. Factor in that any reuse of existing 3 line robotics is only a copy of end effectors and software plus reuse of all the documentation (+ translation) and I could see them saving 70% on the line itself. So much less NRE for a copy.

Yes, the reduction in non-recurring engineering (NRE) is part of the experience curve. Also with GA4 at Fremont, Tesla reused previously scrapped conveyor equipment to form the main line (for a literal zero CapEx and zero lead-time to manufacture).

The cool part? Since this conveyor equipment was never designed to move the weight of a complete Model 3, Tesla engineers installed the new GA4 line on a descending slope, using a 'gravity assist' to move the cars down the line.

"That means efficiency functioning on multiple levels and in multiple dimensions."
-- S.R. Hadden​

Now at GF3, Tesla is reusing the original Grohmann battery pack assembly robotics. This will lower overall CapEx, while extending the life of that capital equipment while still being capable of supporting Telsa's 5K/wk eventual production goal for the first line at GF3/Shanghai.

These folks are getting good at this.

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Check out that cnbc headline. The 20 iPace and Etron sold took shares from Tesla guys. No mention how many share of cars telsa took from Jag and Audi with 30k model 3s sold per month.

 

[Unpilot]

Check out that cnbc headline.

Nope

 

[mickificki]

not sure how many of you listen to Rob Mauer's tesla daily podcast but if you do, please go support him financially. He's quit his job to do Tesla news/information full time. Very informative stuff.

stop being so cheap and go support him. www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast

 

[humbaba]

Good point. I disagree the redacted parts are fishy. It's probably just to honor their part of the contract (which probably has a confidentiality clause) without getting counter-sued.

But any analysis that doesn't take Dave's point about neglecting to sue everyone who could be culpable is missing the most important part of the picture. I don't find this suit material in any significant way so I haven't bothered to spend the time to read it but is it really true that the only named defendent is Tesla?

as far as redaction, I thought I pointed out that it was most likely a confidentiality issue? It still looks odd to see claims specifically relating to the terms when the terms are redacted. Obviously the court has the unredacted version and Tesla deserves at least an initial protection of the confidentiality of their agreement, but it does make it difficult for anyone else to assess the claims. Again, I thought I said that (though not in so many words).

I would not accept a PV system where its basic function and safety relied on a city/county inspection. Who would?
Robin

Nice way to miss the point -- if Walmart's claims are true then as you say. But there are two things at play: since no inspection found the problems that is evidence against Walmart's claims. Having a disinterested third party is helpful when its he said/she said. Secondly, if the inspection did not find basic things then that suggests some blame on them for failure to do even a basic or cursory inspection.

If Walmart's claims are true then it is not a good look for Tesla, but it would also indicate a failure at multiple levels: contractor work, Tesla monitoring/inspection of it, and county inspection at the least.

Or are you saying that we should not have inspections because it is the responsibility of the contracted party to do the work to a minimum standard?

 

[humbaba]

Which means Tesla thought the fires were real and significant, and took blame.

No, it does not. It means that they determined that paying for the damages was the expeditious thing to do.

Moreover, it disproves the claims made here that Tesla was not engaged and management was unaware of the issue.

Everything points to an ulterior motive to the lawsuit. I think the most likely is the desire to get out of a contract that no longer looks as good as it once did. That could be because of drops in solar pricing, it could be because of other business relationships, or it could be something else. I think it is less likely to be specifically to hurt Tesla. While the timing seems suspect (right after Tesla's push for solar) that could just be the way the cookie crumbled. Usually someone doesn't have a lawsuit ready to file and then hold on to it for "just the right moment." These things take time and (usually) happen on their own schedule.

 

[sparcs]

it would also indicate a failure at multiple levels: contractor work, Tesla monitoring/inspection of it, and county inspection at the least.

and potentially supplier issues where Tesla might be able to recover some money.

 

[Foghat]

No, it does not. It means that they determined that paying for the damages was the expeditious thing to do.

Moreover, it disproves the claims made here that Tesla was not engaged and management was unaware of the issue.

Everything points to an ulterior motive to the lawsuit. I think the most likely is the desire to get out of a contract that no longer looks as good as it once did. That could be because of drops in solar pricing, it could be because of other business relationships, or it could be something else. I think it is less likely to be specifically to hurt Tesla. While the timing seems suspect (right after Tesla's push for solar) that could just be the way the cookie crumbled. Usually someone doesn't have a lawsuit ready to file and then hold on to it for "just the right moment." These things take time and (usually) happen on their own schedule.

On leased systems, Tesla doesn’t make money unless the system is producing electricity. They don’t want problems and would be proactive in keeping those systems producing since it is their interest to do so. This has always been part of the aligned interests with the customer, in this case Walmart. This was publicly stated and in solarcity/Tesla documentation.

For Walmart to argue with a wall street journal article that solarcity purposefully did shoddy work to get systems installed to reap profit is antithetical to the business model itself. This weakness in their argument raises further scrutiny of claims, especially since the local authorities reports were not involved or were not included in the lawsuit filed on almost all the incidents cited. I could only recall the indio incident where some type of investigation happened.

The reddit post by the “whistleblower” could also be material to this weakness since it predicts a stock crash due these issues and specifically tells people to google Walmart fires, as well as warns investors to sell their stock before the crash. The identity of the consultants and possibly this reddit poster should be ruled out as connected due to coincidental or not coincidental nature of similarily in the lawsuit claims and tone.

This raises the question did someone have a financial interest in seeing these incidents be brought forth in a lawsuit as well? Were there short positions taken as a result of knowledge of this suit being filed?

These doors get opened upon further scrutiny.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So the market seems to think that this lawsuit is worth 2-3% of the stock price? (the difference between TSLA and Nasdaq). I guess it's those negative nancies again.

Yup, and top of the leaderboard today.

 

[N5329K]

Or are you saying that we should not have inspections because it is the responsibility of the contracted party to do the work to a minimum standard?

No. Inspectors serve the very useful purpose of keeping installers on their toes. The product must be good, well-tested and fit for purpose. The installers must follow the manufacturer's directions, code requirements and professional ethics. When that chain of responsibility gets interrupted (by poor design, shoddy manufacturing, corners cut in installation or installers who aren't up to the job, for example), a city/county inspector is a very weak safety link. I don't know what caused the fires or if Walmart is telling the truth. But I do know I would not rely on a city/county inspector to prevent them.
Robin