Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

No big. I get it. I'd be happy too! And congrats on the home purchase.

Thanks . On the bright side, and somewhat ironic, given the timing, those funds will likely go towards a solar installation on the new house, highly likely to be from Tesla.

 

[Chartered321]

not sure how many of you listen to Rob Mauer's tesla daily podcast but if you do, please go support him financially. He's quit his job to do Tesla news/information full time. Very informative stuff.

stop being so cheap and go support him. www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast

Just became a supporter of this guy. Go duck yourself CNBC we don't need you

 

[mongo]

Yes - even if nothing specific they can give a lawyer vetted generic statement.

Or they sent an e-mail to media@tesla 5 seconds before hitting submit on their article...

 

[KSilver2000]

The suit seeks to remove all systems on all their roofs and end the Tesla contract on all its systems. Not just the 7, but all systems. They did sign a contract many years ago where the cost dynamics were different, so possible motivation for removal of all systems is that they may have cheaper options readily available, since they want to increase their renewable portfolio not decrease it. Removing all systems would decrease it.

This is possible reason, but again, speculation requiring evidence obviously.

Not saying whether your speculation has merit or not. It very well could. Timing with the rental news is very peculiar. But, how many consumers even know about the rental option as of now since Tesla doesn’t really advertise this. Tesla PV is not even close to deploying as many as other installers.

But, let’s take a non Tesla viewpoint.

Walmart has over 11,000 stores globally, averaging about $125,000 in revenue per store each day. Of course some stores will sell more and some less.

240 stores out of 11,000+ is very minimal. Plus, we don’t know how many of the other 11,000 stores have different PV systems installed, if any. Any FUD about some pro-fossil fuel, anti-Tesla angle because of 240 out of 11,000+ stores sounds like complete Tesla fanboi-ing. (You’ll know by who thumbs down this post).

The suit doesn’t explain how many days lost in sales caused by the fires. But, for a company who’s profits depend largely on volume sales, even a 1 day closure for the 7 stores is ~$1M lost in revenue. I bet that’s a good amount of sales compared to the Tesla PV lease expense they have.

Knowing that Walmart had difficulty working with Tesla on a solution (which is very plausible given what many Tesla car owners experience), I wouldn’t blame Walmart for looking at ways to get out of the contract—if your speculation is true.

Also, 7 fires in 240 locations is 3% failure. As a homeowner, even, a 3% chance of fire would sure as hell deter me from ever doing business with a company.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The service discussion was becoming a collection of personal anecdotes again, so 12 posts were moved to the dedicated thread (including one of my own )

Service and communication (out of main)

 

[KSilver2000]

Yeah, but this is a damaging enough story that on day one it's likely driving all or most of a net 4% hit to the stock (Tesla down 3%; NASDAQ up 1%). Every story I've read includes "we reached out to Tesla..." Their lack of response implies they have nothing to counter with. Sure, they're notoriously weak in the PR department. But isn't it time they fixed that? Again, this is about duty to shareholders.

It’s already going to court. What do you want them to say? “We stand by our products and services, and vehemently deny any and all claims made by Walmart?” Or, “We have made improvements that remedied the issue guaranteeing this type of problem never occurs again?”

Nothing will help the SP at this very moment.
Just listen to some bulls here and buy more at this opportunity.

 

[sparcs]

.

Yeah, but this is a damaging enough story that on day one it's likely driving all or most of a net 4% hit to the stock (Tesla down 3%; NASDAQ up 1%). Every story I've read includes "we reached out to Tesla..." Their lack of response implies they have nothing to counter with. Sure, they're notoriously weak in the PR department. But isn't it time they fixed that? Again, this is about duty to shareholders.

What are they going to say exactly? The most common answer to new legal issues is "No comment due to pending litigation". That's not going to help shareholders.

 

[Foghat]

Not saying whether your speculation has merit or not. It very well could. Timing with the rental news is very peculiar. But, how many consumers even know about the rental option as of now since Tesla doesn’t really advertise this. Tesla PV is not even close to deploying as many as other installers.

But, let’s take a non Tesla viewpoint.

Walmart has over 11,000 stores globally, averaging about $125,000 in revenue per store each day. Of course some stores will sell more and some less.

240 stores out of 11,000+ is very minimal. Plus, we don’t know how many of the other 11,000 stores have different PV systems installed, if any. Any FUD about some pro-fossil fuel, anti-Tesla angle because of 240 out of 11,000+ stores sounds like complete Tesla fanboi-ing. (You’ll know by who thumbs down this post).

The suit doesn’t explain how many days lost in sales caused by the fires. But, for a company who’s profits depend largely on volume sales, even a 1 day closure for the 7 stores is ~$1M lost in revenue. I bet that’s a good amount of sales compared to the Tesla PV lease expense they have.

Knowing that Walmart had difficulty working with Tesla on a solution (which is very plausible given what many Tesla car owners experience), I wouldn’t blame Walmart for looking at ways to get out of the contract—if your speculation is true.

Also, 7 fires in 240 locations is 3% failure. As a homeowner, even, a 3% chance of fire would sure as hell deter me from ever doing business with a company.

That’s right, and 100% of those residents would call the fire department if their roof were on fire.

From the case filing, it appears not to be the case with what Walmart reports with most of Its incidents. They point to local news reports as evidence they happened, not police reports or fire department reports.

 

[M3Rider]

He's doing it again. 4-8 weeks is now 4 weeks.
Ugh. Why do people keep asking "when" and why does he keep responding.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Assuming ASP declines as Shanghai comes online, Model 3 revenue should still be close to 500 million a week for the Model 3 and over 100 million for SX, combined for about 600 million a week.

I figure 10% of deliveries are leases, so with your 2020 numbers that's 27b of auto sales plus ~1b auto lease revenue.

Add in Tesla Energy and used car sales and revenue should be close to 40 billion.

27b sales + 1b lease + 1.5b Energy + 2.5b Services = 32b

I think Y will come early, but total 3+Y will be ~500k next year so this math still works. Services could be higher and I have S/X higher than you, so maybe 33b.

... a very strong 2021, where they can beat 50% growth again.

Not unless there's a secret factory under construction somewhere.

I think Musk is betting a lot more on Robotaxi than people realize. He believes robotaxi economics will transform Tesla from a struggling carmaker into a true tech giant. And wow-ing people with self-driving is a lot more fun than grinding away at the "Game of Pennies". During Autonomy Day he said 100% of their spending was directed at FSD. That's not literally true, but he meant what he said. Roadster, Semi and Pickup are no longer priorities.

 

[humbaba]

He's doing it again. 4-8 weeks is now 4 weeks.
Ugh. Why do people keep asking "when" and why does he keep responding.

He is not "doing it again" -- the quotation is:

We need to complete internal QA testing for safety, which will hopefully be done in about 4 weeks

He did not say "wide release in 4 weeks" did he? No, he said "internal QA testing ... about 4 weeks". From that one can see that his 4-8 weeks range is based on internal QA testing plus some padding. Possibly to allow slippage in QA testing, or to allow for other release delays (such as regulatory approval).

 

[Stars aligned]

No, it was edited after the fact to say that. The original comment just gave the link and said the price change was coming in 2020

Got that. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[abasile]

I just sold about 21% of our TSLA shares and might end up selling more. I really, really don't like what's happening with Walmart, and I still have concerns about vehicle service communication, so I figured it's probably safest to trim back our TSLA position. We really want Tesla to succeed, and we see great potential for Tesla to disrupt multiple industries while benefiting humankind. But customer relationships, large and small, need to be better cared for.

 

[M3Rider]

He is not "doing it again" -- the quotation is:

He did not say "wide release in 4 weeks" did he? No, he said "internal QA testing ... about 4 weeks". From that one can see that his 4-8 weeks range is based on internal QA testing plus some padding. Possibly to allow slippage in QA testing, or to allow for other release delays (such as regulatory approval).

The discussion is about "when early access" for everyone with FSD.
I don't know what share of the fleet has it, but considering the fire sale at $5k(ap+fsd) I have a feeling it's about 50%.
That'd be pretty wide. With the rest of the fleet soon to follow.
He's setting up himself with giving out shorter and shorter timeframes. Should keep plenty of padding if give any estimates at all.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla Giga 3's production equipment enters debugging phase ahead of Model 3 production​

"In a statement on Tuesday, Tesla’s Global Vice President Grace Tao revealed that Gigafactory 3 is mostly complete. The VP also noted that at its current pace, the Shanghai-based electric car production facility is on track to start deliveries of the Made-in-China Model 3 by the end of this year."

"The Tesla executive also mentioned that production equipment has been transported to the massive facility, and are currently undergoing installation and debugging."​

Impressive!

Btw., this possibly suggests a Q3 capital expenses uptick, for any installation time payments for the new equipment.

 

[SpaceCash]

P.S. Did you take some profits yesterday? This FUD is predictable AF.

No! I thought long and hard about it and elected not to mostly based on my personal perception that my broker was trying to coax me into selling my shares, and I couldn't give them the pleasure. I'm a conspiracy-minded stubborn SOB at times.

 

[Unpilot]

So the "street" must value Tesla solar a tad bit more than zero given the price action today.

Kinda sorta.....no actually even though I am pretty sure the whole "street" is rotten and a bunch of thief's and face sucking aliens ...it still makes me sick.to watch how they work...rant over.

 

[Compton]

Sigh, it's not the price of the contract, the roofs, the solar panels or the potential reimbursement. It's the brand.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA getting back from a midday low under $218 to above $220 into today's close was heartening from a technical standpoint. Round price numbers can indeed have psychological significance. The media harping on negative Tesla news appears to have motivated selling by shorts and weak longs for the greater portion of the day. Once they finished their flights, bargain hunters entered. I'd still like to see a return to the 50-day simple moving average, which is currently around $232, before sounding an all-clear.

 

[humbaba]

The discussion is about "when early access" for everyone with FSD.
I don't know what share of the fleet has it, but considering the fire sale at $5k(ap+fsd) I have a feeling it's about 50%.
That'd be pretty wide. With the rest of the fleet soon to follow.
He's setting up himself with giving out shorter and shorter timeframes. Should keep plenty of padding if give any estimates at all.

You may interpret it that way, but that is not what he said.

Price increase for Tesla FSD postponed until version 10 with smart summon is in wide release, which is about 4 to 8 weeks away, depending on how early access goes

This is what got people wound up. "version 10 [is] about 4 to 8 weeks away" qualified by "how early access goes." This implies that "early access" is before 4 to 8 weeks. As you say, there is a thread and one response to Musk's post was:

Any update on early FSD purchasers getting added to the Early Access Program? I have an 100D Model S and Performance Model 3 purchased with FSD before all the price changes and would love to have them in the Early Access Program to help.

to which Musk replies:

Everyone who bought FSD will receive priority/early access

which is something he already stated with respect to the release of advanced summon. Musk is simply reinforcing that purchasers of FSD are included in the early adopter release, that is, before wide release.
That takes us to the next owner post:

When will this happen? I have two Tesla' that updated this morning, but no advanced summon.

As did I. The current update is *.3.1, which does not include advanced summon. But the question is, when is the early adopter release happening (that is the current topic in the thread). And that brings us back to the current post by Musk that is upsetting some people where he clarifies that it has to pass the internal safety QA before they can move forward.

We need to complete internal QA testing for safety, which will hopefully be done in about 4 weeks

I've been careful to use quotes, but this can accurately be summarized as follows:

• FSD price increase is postponed until V10 (smart summon) is in wide release (4-8 weeks) depending on early access results
• What about FSD purchasers*
• Everyone who bought FSD qualifies for early release (reiterating prior statement)
• But I got an update and it didn't have advanced summon!
• Be patient, internal QA testing for safety will hopefully be done in about 4 weeks

Given that there can reasonably be expected to be a delay for regulatory approval, it is easy to see 4-8 weeks being the delay for even early adopter. Musk doesn't say QA will complete in four weeks, he says he hopes that it will.

But won't early adopter be a defacto wide release? Perhaps, but as already noted, that is easily within 4-8 weeks window. If FSD purchasers will have it, who else would be left for a "wide release"? Those who bought EAP but not FSD. I have no idea how many more people that would be.

* This post isn't really asking about FSD as early adopter for auto summon release, it is referring to a prior statement by Musk that those who bought FSD before the March sale would be added to early adopter as a general thing, not just for specific releases like this one. While it is possible some early buyers of FSD have been added to the early adopter program, on twitter the lack of early adopter has been a common complaint. But, that is tangential to the current discussion.