Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

Big mistake from Tesla making it a sedan.

Hard disagree.

Looks are still imperative at this stage in the game and hatchbacks ALWAYS look at least a little clunky. I could maybe except that Ferrari hatchback that more or less pulled it off, but the Model 3 is a truly beautiful car, so good looking that normies assume it must cost well above $60k until otherwise educated. It's a gorgeous car and aesthetics are probably the exact reason it was released before the Y.

 

[Singuy]

There are multiple problems with non-Tesla facilities as a primary charging solution:
- not many stalls at each location - tends to be 2 in most places
- not working
- technical issue with the RFID/starting the session
- cars with slower charing using them for hours
- ICE'd - as they're not always as obvious as Supercharging stalls

I wouldn't say the M3 has obsoleted all other EV (well all other cars really) because it's not a hatch-back. Most people want a hatch-back here in Europe for the practicality. Big mistake from Tesla making it a sedan.

I would say a model y first would cannibalize s/x sales even more while reducing future 3 sales
What Tesla did is perfectly strategic.

 

[KarenRei]

You're reaching here. This is a pretty clear denial. No way Elon and shareholders sell less than minimum 300 (or much higher). And no way VW pay more than that. This deal is virtually impossible. At most you can expect is some kind of partnership. And they already said that to partner with Waymo is too expensive (and so they went with Ford). Tesla will be cheaper? I doubt it.

I think the fundamental problem - also present in the $420 days - is that VW doesn't just want to own part of Tesla. They want to use Tesla's tech on their other product lines. Which means that the upside from Tesla's tech lead gets spread out across the whole VW group. Tesla doesn't care so much who owns its stock, so long as it retains its tech advantages for itself, so that it can use them to dominate the market.

I don't see an easy resolution for this difference in interests. I think the best they could do would be perhaps something like giving the VW group the exclusive right to buy Tesla tech - e.g. Tesla as an OEM - with Tesla profiting on every purchase. But I'm not sure what tech Tesla might be willing to do that with.

 

[Unpilot]

I prefer Tesla just takes VW's money...either thru pennies on the dollar fire sale of one of their factory's....or most of their customers.
Any company as diametrically opposed to Tesla's mission as VW is should die.
Yes I know they are "pulling out all the stops" with the VW ID.

To little to late...bunch of cheating wankers.

 

[KSilver2000]

There are multiple problems with non-Tesla facilities as a primary charging solution:
- not many stalls at each location - tends to be 2 in most places
- not working
- technical issue with the RFID/starting the session
- cars with slower charing using them for hours
- ICE'd - as they're not always as obvious as Supercharging stalls

I wouldn't say the M3 has obsoleted all other EV (well all other cars really) because it's not a hatch-back. Most people want a hatch-back here in Europe for the practicality. Big mistake from Tesla making it a sedan.

Hard disagree.

Looks are still imperative at this stage in the game and hatchbacks ALWAYS look at least a little clunky. I could maybe except that Ferrari hatchback that more or less pulled it off, but the Model 3 is a truly beautiful car, so good looking that normies assume it must cost well above $60k until otherwise educated. It's a gorgeous car and aesthetics are probably the exact reason it was released before the Y.

Very subjective.

Personally, the front still looks like crap to me. Although, not as ugly as the original toilet nose cone of the S. Why they couldn’t just use the front bumper design of the S and X on the 3 is a mystery to me.

And depends on whether the target market was the US or EU. If the EU, no doubt a hatchback would have been better. If the US, then sedan over hatchback. But, the Y would have still been better than the 3 in the US. Midsize sedans are a dying form everywhere.

 

[StealthP3D]

So what would happen to TSLA if Elon announce LIDAR will be installed starting today? What will be the new goalpost?

Why contemplate theoretical scenarios that have zero chance of occurring? Did you know there is a LIDAR thread for people that still believe lidar is a necessary ingredient?

 

[avoigt]

A non-denial issued to Reuters:

"A source close to Volkswagen said the management board was not currently in talks to acquire a Tesla stake."​

Emphasis mine.



Going up so far, with pretty high volume.

As a German listening to Diess talking about Tesla in talk-shows or in interviews all what I can say is that the entire report about him really want to get a stake of Tesla is very much credible. From my internal VW sources I can say that he tried to build a parallel organization to build BEVs but so far failed for a various of reasons.

Also there is absolut no need for Tesla to even consider letting VW in. There is no win for Elon at all and the Porsche & Piech Family as well as the state lower-saxony who is a shareholder of VW too would oppose such an investment as it simply would look bad.

IOW, its very likely that Diess has all said what was reported knowing there is no chance to get this approved and therefore he will not even try.

Diess recognize with every step VW makes into BEVs how amazing it is what Tesla has achieved and with it the value Elon has created. Other German Automaker like Daimler or BMW do not even know how amazing it is what has been achieved and are still arrogant in that respect. Porsche has at least realized that the organization has an attitude issue and starts to invest in change management now.

 

[SpaceCash]

Very subjective.
/QUOTE]
In this case it truly isn't. One is more golden geometry and universal appeal. The other is less.

 

[ZeApelido]

I think the fundamental problem - also present in the $420 days - is that VW doesn't just want to own part of Tesla. They want to use Tesla's tech on their other product lines. Which means that the upside from Tesla's tech lead gets spread out across the whole VW group. Tesla doesn't care so much who owns its stock, so long as it retains its tech advantages for itself, so that it can use them to dominate the market.

I don't see an easy resolution for this difference in interests. I think the best they could do would be perhaps something like giving the VW group the exclusive right to buy Tesla tech - e.g. Tesla as an OEM - with Tesla profiting on every purchase. But I'm not sure what tech Tesla might be willing to do that with.

Sure they can license out the tech for

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why has there never been any scrutiny from investors on the chipset making process that tesla is doing--this could be a standalone business.

This is EXACTLY what souless Adam Jonas is pushing when he says that 'Tesla is overvalued on fundamentals and undervalued strategically'. Jonas has been angling for Tesla to spin-off their FSD assets into a separate company for a long time, for which MorganStanley will kindly offer their IPO services (for a fee).

That's NOT going to happen. FSD and Tesla are vertically integrated for good reasons:

• agile software development impeded by 3rd party obligations:
  • contracts inevitably distract effort and slow progress
    
  • lawsuits can limit or impede R&D
  • changing course is hard; harder with a 3rd party

• lower unit vehicle cost drive competetiveness:
  • control all req'd technology; single markup to end user
  • integrators like WAYMO face issues from multiple vendors
    
    • LIDAR data is insufficient for a FSD solution
    • high unit cost limits deployment & data collection
      
    • neglects computer vision requirement

• operators like UBER/LYFT are frozen out of cost savings:
  
  • leverages customer-paid fleet data (cheap data)
    
  • leverages engineering effort (cheap AI)
  • cuts out the human driver (cheap labor)

So Adam Jonas has not done a technical analysis of what will be required to produce a successful FSD product, likely because he is out of his depth on the technology (as he has stated). He simply assumes that FSD will magically materialize, then conjures a scenario where his employer profits from the product (without contributing to any of the results mind you, likely impeding it).

News for MorganStanley: AJ's spinoff proposal, like LIDAR, is neither necessary nor sufficient for FSD to succeed. As such, they are both barnacles which should be scrubbed from the program.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Sure they can license out the tech for

Per car?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It wouldn't surprise me if some company like VW made a deal to just buy the Model S (and/or 3) skateboard and then build a car around that. The skateboard becomes the car equivalent of the motherboard in a PC clone. They differentiate via body, interior, and software.

 

[SGordB]

Wow. Go, Galileo, go!

Why Big Tech is a better fit to buy Tesla than a car company

(Almost breathtaking to see the kind of respect Gali is getting from these Yahoo business pundits.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Big mistake from Tesla making it a sedan.

Lol, while hatchbacks are not popular in the US, where Model 3 was sold exclusively for the 1st 18 months of production (including all the profitable quarters).

Model Y is largely the same car as the 3 but with a hatchback and in the popular CUV format. IMHO, the real sales will come in the EU with a locally produced "Model 2", a $25K compact hatchback that will redefine the 'hot-hatch' market. I see 1.5M/yr compact Tesla EVs for the EU. Elon has hinted its coming possibly as soon as 2024.

Can't wait.

Cheers!

 

[Off Shore]

If VW is prepared to offer my price of $4000 I will go along too. Well okay, a discount to $3000 is acceptable because it saves me 10 years of FUD headaches.

No!! No damned discount. $4K or nothing!

 

[Tslynk67]

Lol, while hatchbacks are not popular in the US, where Model 3 was sold exclusively for the 1st 18 months of production (including all the profitable quarters).

Model Y is largely the same car as the 3 but with a hatchback and in the popular CUV format. IMHO, the real sales will come in the EU with a locally produced "Model 2", a $25K compact hatchback that will redefine the 'hot-hatch' market. I see 1.5M/yr compact Tesla EVs for the EU. Elon has hinted its coming possibly as soon as 2024.

Can't wait.

Cheers!

Yes, we need a small hatch-back.

Don't get me wrong, I think the M3 is a beautiful car, but in Europe small hatchbacks are the most popular variant.

 

[Off Shore]

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

Cheat software is supposed to go undetected, not scare the driver! My guess is that the drivetrain is using more energy than reported, causing things to get out of sync with the BMS. Or perhaps there's a battery defect. What happened to Mercedes' quality control?

"Never apply Hanlon's Razor when malice has already been clearly demonstrated."

 

[KarenRei]

Yes, we need a small hatch-back.

Don't get me wrong, I think the M3 is a beautiful car, but in Europe small hatchbacks are the most popular variant.

If by "hatchback" you mean specifically the relatively vertical hatches that are trendy today, those ruin the drag coefficient (+0,05 or so), and thus, that's not going to happen.

A Model S-style fastback/tapered hatch is more plausible, although it still comes with compromises, which increase the smaller you make the car.

 

[StealthP3D]

It wouldn't surprise me if some company like VW made a deal to just buy the Model S (and/or 3) skateboard and then build a car around that. The skateboard becomes the car equivalent of the motherboard in a PC clone. They differentiate via body, interior, and software.

The problem with that is the Model S drivetrain/battery is not as cost-effective as the Model 3. So the purchaser could build what is essentially a Model S with a less desirable body (not a Tesla), perhaps a better interior and almost certainly worse software. All this for the price of a Model S.

Not gonna fly very far.

 

[adiggs]

It wouldn't surprise me if some company like VW made a deal to just buy the Model S (and/or 3) skateboard and then build a car around that. The skateboard becomes the car equivalent of the motherboard in a PC clone. They differentiate via body, interior, and software.

I've been thinking that something like this - Tesla as drivetrain / battery pack / cell manufacturer (somewhere in that value chain) is a great way for Tesla to advance the acceleration of the advent of sustainable transport. There are so many transportation segments that need a high quality drive train such as the one Tesla has developed, but which aren't served by a drive train - they're served by a complete vehicle.

Semi is the first that comes to my mind - Tesla has the prototypes, but do they really want to build out a whole division with expertise in commercial trucking so that they can deliver all of the other bits and bobs that go into an effective Class 8 Semi for customers? Maybe if they can find a manufacturer of Class 8 semis that wants to use a Tesla drivetrain to build around, they can get to scale in class 8 semis faster than going it alone?

And the lighter duty commercial trucks (Class 3-7).

RV's - does Tesla want to start up an RV division, or would it all work better to provide drive trains / skateboards to an RV company that wants to electrify this segment.

School buses (maybe the Chinese bus builders got this one). And other kinds of buses - long haul people movers, municipal buses.

Agricultural equipment - tractors and other non-truck stuff.

And on and on.


Tesla seems to have the volume manufacturing of packs reasonably solved and scaling it up fast - at least relative to everybody else. Seems like a pretty good business choice to focus on that end of things, along with the motors, inverters, and other components that make for a high quality electric drivetrain, and partner with other businesses that don't have the electric drivetrain figured out, but they do have the industry expertise to do the rest of the work and interact with customers in that segment and provide them with the other-than-drivetrain stuff that is expected in an industry solution.