The Accountant
Active Member
My thought exactly - if the trend for MS & MX continues into Sept, I'm hoping we see a better ASP in Q3 over Q2 (despite more SR+ sales).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
My thought exactly - if the trend for MS & MX continues into Sept, I'm hoping we see a better ASP in Q3 over Q2 (despite more SR+ sales).
I am in no way saying the authors of InsideEVs is doing stock manipulation
But they sure as hell want to drive business and clicks to their site using these estimates. The issue is their method of using these estimates to drive business to their site causes market moving price action.....which as far as I'm concerned, should be illegal. They are guesses, simple as that. No website out there should be able to post "guesses" about a companies sales without being given that information from the company.....especially when its proven that those guesses cause the stock of said company to rise or fall.Edit: Clarify, No website out there should be able to post "guesses" about a companies sales. They should only be posting official sales numbers from a companies press release or official numbers.
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I am in no way saying the authors of InsideEVs is doing stock manipulation
I hope you are not serious but I'm afraid you are.
ASP on Model S and X should also improve because many more of those deliveries are full sticker price Ravens and not discounted pre-Ravens.
Paracelsus
Active Member
I was reminded once again of the striking correlation between Rudyard Kipling's IF and Elon's life..........particularly when the TSLA FUD crew is spouting off through articles that are once again well timed to slash at any opportunity for TSLA to recover from its already oversold position. Note how Lora, Dana, Chanos, and the rest of the TSLA FUD crew represent the "truth you’ve spoken, Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools" in the 2nd verse :
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
.................................................We get frustrated by this BS effecting our share price and hang in there and fight back some, but Elon is a damn stud. Keep fighting the good fight everyone!
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
.................................................We get frustrated by this BS effecting our share price and hang in there and fight back some, but Elon is a damn stud. Keep fighting the good fight everyone!
Eh maybe I should rephrase that. I meant it as any website that is posting numbers for sales or revenue or anything of the sort should come from a press release.....from the actual company. Not that any company should be giving websites financial information. Bad paraphrasing by me.
Um... you realize this is a website, and that we regularly post guesses about sales and revenue...
Stars aligned
Member
So, model 3 and model S where up for the US 11% for July and August, and Model X was up 22%. From the Ship tracking we know that ships which arrived in Q2 had a total loading time of approx. 23.5 days and ships which are set to arrive in Q3 had a total loading time of 29 days so far which is 27% over Q2. This is without the cars shipped via Philadelphia.
Quick top of head calculation, if sales hold up in September, we should be 10-15% over Q2 sales.
Quick top of head calculation, if sales hold up in September, we should be 10-15% over Q2 sales.
Seriously comparing a website that puts as much work into their EV monthly estimates to a person posting on a forum?
I guess I'm in the minority when it comes to how frustrating it is that there is no regulation or responsibility nowadays when it comes to how information is portrayed and how it is presented. I'm ok with being in the minority on this. I'm sick of the InsideEv estimates and how they move the stock just as much as how sick I was of the Bloomberg model 3 tracker.
We can move on from the topic. It doesn't need to be any bigger of a discussion
Europe Tesla registrations are up about 6% for the first two months of Q3 vs Q2, after about 90% of the registrations reported. Might turn out even a bit better in the end as UK numbers are not included yet which should be disproportinately up due to RHD Model 3 introduction. For data source see my footer.
Do we know what BMW/Mercedes/Lexus sales were for the month in the US?
Stars aligned
Member
I don‘t follow closely but sites like carsalesbase.com usually publish the numbers.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Half the buyers already own a Porsche. So for them it's a step up.
BMW USA brand sales increased 7.2 percent in August 2019 for a total of 25,505 over the 23,789 vehicles sold in August 2018. Sales of BMW Sports Activity Vehicles – X1 through X7 models – increased just over 21% in August 2019 vs August 2018 and now account for 56% of BMW brand sales in the U.S.
So their “car” sales are down. I see some algebra in there, but I’m on my phone.
Bullish_Bear
Member
Hi, Stars, a probably silly question,but I guess maybe some others also want to know: What is the total loading time means here? is that the days for loading to all the ships (no matter how many) in total, so you use it as a proxy to estimate the shipping volume? If my understanding is right, do you think we can use the number and size of ships to do the estimate also? and do you have the data? is there any online source we can check those?
Thanks a lot!
Stars aligned
Member
Sure, there is this helpful tracking site Tesla Carriers , and column AB "Time at SFO" seems to represent the loading time. We see also the actual departure and arrival and a lot more.
If we assume that the loading speed is similar for all vessels, we do not even have to know the loading capacity for the volume calculations.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I wonder how many tslaq can afford a Taycan.
I'm pretty sure that most of that crowd are just EV haters/trolls as opposed to being actual investors.
jhm
Well-Known Member
What was I thinking? These guys are probably not at the top of the troll payscale.
dc_h
Active Member
Europe: 28,000
U.S. ~ 55,000
Canada ~ 7000
China 8000
ROW: 4000 (Australia/NZ ~2000, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan 2000)
Total: 102,000
105,000 seems attainable. Canada, China & ROW all seem like they could be higher. US will be hard to delivery much more than 24,000 in a month.
GAAP Ops even to +100mm
cash flow +625mm
COGS down, margins up
Almost 6 billion in the bank and on track for 6.5 billion by the end of the year.
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