Rivian are spreading themselves too thinly. Not sure about the design also, futuristic with a bit of this nose thrown in:
Orange/Red definitely a fast truck...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Orange/Red definitely a fast truck...
It's a bipolar world. TSLA price, company value, out of whack. Trump the savior for those who like the end of days and anti-Christ for progressives. Opposites attract, sames often repel.
The opposite of a synonym is an antonym. The opposite of an electron is a positron. Here's something to ponder, "What is the opposite of a dog?" Not god—not a cat—there are too many cat lovers here.
As an "extinguished professor," my wife's term, and she should know as a gerontology major in college, my darkest secrets of senescence, impotence and now occasional incontinence, provide a clue. The opposite of a dog is clear. It is a fire hydrant.
Dogs must be very competitive. I'd like to see the look on its face if ever a hydrant fought back.
The opposite of a synonym is an antonym. The opposite of an electron is a positron. Here's something to ponder, "What is the opposite of a dog?" Not god—not a cat—there are too many cat lovers here.
As an "extinguished professor," my wife's term, and she should know as a gerontology major in college, my darkest secrets of senescence, impotence and now occasional incontinence, provide a clue. The opposite of a dog is clear. It is a fire hydrant.
Dogs must be very competitive. I'd like to see the look on its face if ever a hydrant fought back.
Most inspiring CEO according to a survey from Hired: Elon Musk
Since Elon is behaving much more according to the rules at Twitter, China GF is almost ready to start production, production and delivery look smooth and strong as well as demand, AP V10 in roll out, impressive safety reports, competition now proven to lag behind (Porsche, VW a.o.), ICE companies shift to BEVs as well as governments and another strong quarter in front of us I ask myself how its possible that the SP manipulation still keeps it at this low levels.
50% + short trading is crazy but obviously the big guys are still waiting for Q3 confirmation before they go in.
Tesla stock is incredible undervalued.
- Elon Musk
- Jeff Bezos
- Satya Nadella
- Mark Zuckerberg
- Jack Ma
- Sheryl Sandberg
- Reed Hastings
- Susan Wojcicki
- Marissa Mayer
- Ann Wojcicki
Since Elon is behaving much more according to the rules at Twitter, China GF is almost ready to start production, production and delivery look smooth and strong as well as demand, AP V10 in roll out, impressive safety reports, competition now proven to lag behind (Porsche, VW a.o.), ICE companies shift to BEVs as well as governments and another strong quarter in front of us I ask myself how its possible that the SP manipulation still keeps it at this low levels.
50% + short trading is crazy but obviously the big guys are still waiting for Q3 confirmation before they go in.
Tesla stock is incredible undervalued.
The opposite of Dog is odiously Anti-Dog...
Stars aligned
Member
My take on US Model 3 Q3 numbers: Last ship from SF left 9/9, production 700 cars/day*20 days = 14k.
4.5k sold in the first 10 days, 13k for the rest of month = 17.5 for September + 26.6 k for Jul/Aug = 44.1k. 1k US inventory remains.
Current US inventory is approx 2k Model 3 (1'998 to be exact as per teslastats right now) and 356 S/X.
That would be approx. 1.9k less in US than Q2 based on InsideEV figures but should easily be offset by rest of the world. For all other countries covered by Teslastats (China, Korea and Japan being the notable exceptions), Model 3 inventory is relatively low or not existent and Model S/X inventory is also very low.
Rationale is that Tesla produces Model 3 at maximum capacity and cars stay in US for the rest of the month. The build up of inventory in the US in the last 10 days supports this theory. Hopeful, the sell-through / logistics is good in US for the rest of the month. We don't need worry to much for the rest of the world I guess.
4.5k sold in the first 10 days, 13k for the rest of month = 17.5 for September + 26.6 k for Jul/Aug = 44.1k. 1k US inventory remains.
Current US inventory is approx 2k Model 3 (1'998 to be exact as per teslastats right now) and 356 S/X.
That would be approx. 1.9k less in US than Q2 based on InsideEV figures but should easily be offset by rest of the world. For all other countries covered by Teslastats (China, Korea and Japan being the notable exceptions), Model 3 inventory is relatively low or not existent and Model S/X inventory is also very low.
Rationale is that Tesla produces Model 3 at maximum capacity and cars stay in US for the rest of the month. The build up of inventory in the US in the last 10 days supports this theory. Hopeful, the sell-through / logistics is good in US for the rest of the month. We don't need worry to much for the rest of the world I guess.
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If Dog and Anti-Dog were to collide, they would destroy each other.. resulting in a world where Trump is president of the US...
Obviously that can't happen... or we would have Brexit...
Obviously that can't happen... or we would have Brexit...
4 year vacation....sounds about right for Europeans.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Fundamentally, I believe Tesla has reached THE turning point. The media narrative now recognizes EV as better than ICE, or will soon recognize this fact. Beating Porsche seems to be a bigger deal in people's mind than we thought. I am sure that when Roadster 2020 make a new record, tesla will replace porsche's place in people's heart.
With also, Musk's change and maturing on Social media which should stop the stock's volatility. If the founder is not pumping the stock, the stock will move based on numbers and fundamentals. We are also seeing journalist's power over TSLA stock diminish to the point of being negligible. I no longer wake up fearing another news report of TSLA catching on fire.
What hasn't been priced in is GF3. The implication of it completing is huge, yet we are still at a valuation before Model 3 is released, as if all the Model 3 stuff did not happen.
So it is safe to assume that we follow the exponential rise from here. If you look at MSFT's rise to 1T market cap, it took 10 years. Assuming the same for TSLA, it will take 5 years to double the current market cap to around $500, another 3 year to double that to $1000 and 2 more years to $4000. If we can fix this trade war before the recession takes hold, we have probably seen the bottom. Otherwise Recession 2021. By that I mean main street recession. By 2021, the stock market is probably already in recovering mode if a recession were to occur.
Slow and steady. And stop promising stuff Elon, just outsell everyone else is enough. The exciting stuff... Reveal them as a surprise. The model S plaid mode model is a good one.
With also, Musk's change and maturing on Social media which should stop the stock's volatility. If the founder is not pumping the stock, the stock will move based on numbers and fundamentals. We are also seeing journalist's power over TSLA stock diminish to the point of being negligible. I no longer wake up fearing another news report of TSLA catching on fire.
What hasn't been priced in is GF3. The implication of it completing is huge, yet we are still at a valuation before Model 3 is released, as if all the Model 3 stuff did not happen.
So it is safe to assume that we follow the exponential rise from here. If you look at MSFT's rise to 1T market cap, it took 10 years. Assuming the same for TSLA, it will take 5 years to double the current market cap to around $500, another 3 year to double that to $1000 and 2 more years to $4000. If we can fix this trade war before the recession takes hold, we have probably seen the bottom. Otherwise Recession 2021. By that I mean main street recession. By 2021, the stock market is probably already in recovering mode if a recession were to occur.
Slow and steady. And stop promising stuff Elon, just outsell everyone else is enough. The exciting stuff... Reveal them as a surprise. The model S plaid mode model is a good one.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
So, the End of Quarter is just around the corner from here, with results therefrom.
I think the stock will do sputters up until the numbers are announced, because of the MM.
Then, it will dramatically shoot up after over 100k cars have been produced/delivered for the quarter, and shorts will be desperiately trying to FUD away the results.
But it wont work and it'll continue to climb until after the Earnings report is released; if they've gained the FSD profit this quarter, they'll skyrocket in price, and if they're just in the green it'll still go heavy green and stay there. If they don't go green this quarter, I think the SP will drop nearer back to 220 as the Shorts try to expound upon that and make it seem like Dooms day.
If they're Green this and next quarter, I have no doubt the stock will be shooting up consistantly.
I think the stock will do sputters up until the numbers are announced, because of the MM.
Then, it will dramatically shoot up after over 100k cars have been produced/delivered for the quarter, and shorts will be desperiately trying to FUD away the results.
But it wont work and it'll continue to climb until after the Earnings report is released; if they've gained the FSD profit this quarter, they'll skyrocket in price, and if they're just in the green it'll still go heavy green and stay there. If they don't go green this quarter, I think the SP will drop nearer back to 220 as the Shorts try to expound upon that and make it seem like Dooms day.
If they're Green this and next quarter, I have no doubt the stock will be shooting up consistantly.
Of course agree with number 1, but hard to trust any list with Zuckerberg & Sandberg in a top 10 most inspirational.. They are responsible for so much horrific events in the world. And Marissa Mayer? seriously?/ I’m looking forward to her autobiography titled ”How to run a company into the ground while escaping with a golden parachute while your employees mostly get laid off”
Hopeful for a great P&D report, but a lot is riding on China where there isn’t much visibility into quarterly sales.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I think the parts we can see indicate very strongly for China; their tax break for a large one. Even for non-model 3's, I bet they have greatly increased since that happened.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
What we have seen looks great. There is no lack of demand in China now that the 10% sales tax has been waived. But I'm not sure how Chinese demand matters much at this point because Tesla is able to sell all they can make in other markets. If you look at forums in the US, people want Model 3's that they can't even get.
And ASP data is looking strong too. Production indicators look good. Musk seems to be having fun and I can't imagine that if he thought the quarter was shaping up poorly. I sense he's looking forward to announcing not only great production and delivery but other achievements as well (such as reduced cost of goods sold, a reduction in warranty costs, etc). The only thing remaining is whether they can get the cars they've produced in customers hands by the end of the month. If they execute well on that front I think they are looking very strong. It looks to me like Tesla has more insight into what people in various markets around the world want (now that they have been selling in most areas for some months) and they have left the US somewhat starved of Model 3's so they can end the quarter on a strong note. Q3 and Q4 are historically strong months for cars in general.
I've been saying there won't be a lack of demand for the Model 3 for years and I've been saying it since May 2018 when I drove one for the first time. There is something about this car that makes most people who know it, want it. And hardly anyone "knows it" yet. You can't know it until you take it for a drive and less than 1 or 2% of the world's drivers have driven it yet. It's just started hitting most markets this year.
There never was any meat to the theory that Tesla was going to have a Model 3 demand problem and yet it was repeated so many times I'm sure plenty of people still believe it.
Outside the US too! (sticks hand up in the air and waves it around!)
I, like many other people here, have an order but no delivery date. If they had any surplus vehicles in Europe, they'd be loading them onto the next ferry to Iceland and delivering to people like me; we're just an ordinary RHD country with the same vehicle regulations as the mainland. But no vehicles this quarter.
If they thought they would have spare capacity next quarter, they'd be scheduling deliveries for us next quarter. But they're not. So they don't.
Our deliveries aren't scheduled until freakin' Q1 :Þ
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China's an important of a market, but it's not that large of a percent of Tesla's global sales. I can't access my spreadsheet at the moment, but if I remember right, last quarter total non-US non-EU non-CA deliveries were under 9k.
China, however, has the most growth potential. Might even overtake the US in the mid to long term if current growth trends continue.
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Mars ☰mperor
Member
One piece of information I don't think you guys know about Tesla China this Q3.
Several days ago, the Referral Program began to offer twice the usual free Supercharging around the world, but not in China, still the same 1500km or 1000mile free Supercharging.
(Granted, Tesla China's Referral Program has always been an outsider.
We can't use referral code other than Chinese owners' codes. And the rest of the world can not use Chinese owners' codes either.)
Back in Q2, when Tesla offered 5 times free Supercharging, Tesla China was also on board, offering 7500km free charging.
So this, at least to me, seems a little bullish sign suggesting demand right now is off the chart.
Stars aligned
Member
And if I extrapolate that further, in Q2 Total 53975 (say 54k) 3/S/X have been sold (and assuming delivered) in US, as per InsideEV Scorecard. If total deliveries were 95.2k, rest of world was 41.2k.
Those 41.2k were mostly delivered via RoRo and some were stock from Q1. Let's say 2.2k. So 39k delivered in Q2 via RoRo (arrival date) with loading time at SF 23.5 days. Makes 1.65k per loading day. Loading days in Q3 with arrival in Q3 are approx. 30 days*1.65k= 49.5k. To simplify and stay conservative, let's forget those which might have been shipped with container, e.g. to Australia.
So we have 44.1k Model 3 in US and 49.5k 3/S/X for the rest of the world via RoRo, that's 93.6. Let's throw in 6.4k for Canada and 7k for S/X in USA. So we are at 107'000. Now, because there are new markets, the number of undelivered cars will rise not only in US, but also elsewhere, say 2'000. In this case Total delivered cars are 105'000.
Because this are estimates and not exact figures, total worldwide Q3 deliveries might be in the ballpark between 100k and 110k.
Is this possible? Backtest: say 105k, whereof 20k S/X and 87k 3 (including 2k inventory build up) produced in 91 days, would be 951 Model 3 produced per day. According to carsonight, Nevada is now producing 1k M3 battery packs per day, but we don't know if this has been the case for the entire Q3. So it's certainly at the upper end of what is possible.
Second backtest. No, can't be (crunching the napkin and throwing it away). After all, almighty FactSheet says 97k only.
To anyone reading this thread who contributes estimates to FactSet: "AND IN CONCLUSION, WE'RE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT TESLA WILL ONLY DELIVER 81,3k CARS THIS QUARTER."
I'm pleased you stepped in for neroden.
These laws will only go away if superseded by federal action. Dealers will have enough money for years to sway state legislatures, and Tesla growth will continue to fuel their anger and motivation.
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