stef
Member
My numbers are a little better at 82500, hope I’m not too optimistic.
Not sharing the sheet as it took me weeks and weeks of work
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Not sharing the sheet as it took me weeks and weeks of work
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
The "money for years" depends a lot on their continued sales. New and used sales make up about 50% of a dealership's profits so any hit there hurts them. And, if sales drop, then the remaining 50% of profit will take a hit from reduced business on the service side.
I've always bought used and done only necessary maintenance, and certainly not at dealership rates. So I was a bit surprised when I noticed one of the cars I bought had meticulous records showing that the original owner had dutifully taken it to the dealership every month for oil change, etc. So a loss in new sales leads to a loss in new service business.
But its even worse than that. All of those new cars sitting on the lot not being moved? They cost the dealer plenty of money so while they may not make much profit, the sales are still necessary to avoid ballooning costs. No sale means no holdback payment and continued costs to manufacturer for holding the vehicle. So while a sales drop might not appear significant from a "where do profits come from" perspective all of that held inventory is a significant burden that makes staying in business more difficult if it isn't moved.
With Tesla bypassing them, car dealerships are fighting for their lives. They will continue to sink money into this for as long as they can, but that might be shorter than you think.
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Thoughts and prayers for Alabama!
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Maybe that's because she doesn't talk about it? Climate change is a school topic where I'm at, which is backwoods Missouri. The kids talk about it because the teachers talk about it. The girl scouts talk about it. Lego club talks about it. Heck, it was talked about in the summer beyblading class.
If climate change is an issue for you and her, maybe she should talk about it. Though, if you're in Texas, I can see how that might be risky.
From Twitterverse ... TSLAQ shakeup
2-3 days back .... Linette Lopez got demoted in BI
today ..... Gordon Johnson got fired (Teslas in Shanghai on Twitter)
+(Who's gonna write an article saying some powerful Executives of $TSLAQ are leaving )
Odd, I missed the news about Linette. What happened?
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Yep, both my brother-in-law and nephew work in the oil/gas exploration business. Climate change doesn’t come up in conversation at Thanksgiving.
DFibRL8R
Active Member
Yeah, might cut into the class time allotted to review creation in science class.
Pezpunk
Active Member
and i'm sure nobody in Pompeii wanted to discuss the strange rumblings of Mount Vesuvius around the Summer Solstice Feasting Table, or whatever, but maybe they should have.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
In that twitterthread you can witness a twitter user being added to tslaQ’s block list, because of one tweet.
Cirrus MS100D
Member
Some here are suggestion 82.500, but I can’t seem to find any reliable models that suggest 81,050 is going to be feasible, let alone the 79,425 that various consensus has started to agree on, which makes it hard to see how Tesla’s guidance of 69,420 is realistic.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I would be completely satisified if Tesla doesn't have to take cars back even. Like -5.
The Netherlands thanks Norway for all the Model 3’s. 294 deliveries yesterday. That makes 1035 so far this week and there will be a lot more happy new owners today and tomorrow. That comes on the back of 1401 deliveries last week. These weeks we are absorbing about 20% of Model 3 production.
The rest of Europe is down the drain though, so yeah, I expect about 80,000 total for Q3.
The rest of Europe is down the drain though, so yeah, I expect about 80,000 total for Q3.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Just to document the Tesla call of Gordon Johnson that got him fired from Vertical Group:
TSLA is up premarket despite the latest and greatest price target cut:
"Vertical Group says Tesla running out of car buyers, cuts price target to $54. (link: http://dlvr.it/R2Cww6) dlvr.it/R2Cww6 "
Gordon Johnson's Tesla call in all its glory:
"Vertical Group says Tesla running out of car buyers, cuts price target to $54"
"Tesla is running out of people who want to buy its cars, Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson tells investors in a research note following the company's Q1 deliveries report. Despite nearly fully exhausting its European backlog, opening up China to the Model 3, and "large/unexpected" price cuts across all U.S. models, Tesla's Q1 deliveries fell a record 31% quarter-over-quarter, Johnson says. Further, the analyst sees Tesla's 2019 deliveries coming in closer to 244,000 units, or down 0.4% relative to 2018, well below the company's guidance of 370,000-400,000 vehicles. He notes Tesla's unsold inventory "surged" 51% quarter-over-quarter to a record 18,879 cars in Q1. Johnson keeps a Sell rating on the Tesla and cut his price target for the shares to $54 from $72."
"Tesla is running out of people who want to buy its cars, Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson tells investors in a research note following the company's Q1 deliveries report. Despite nearly fully exhausting its European backlog, opening up China to the Model 3, and "large/unexpected" price cuts across all U.S. models, Tesla's Q1 deliveries fell a record 31% quarter-over-quarter, Johnson says. Further, the analyst sees Tesla's 2019 deliveries coming in closer to 244,000 units, or down 0.4% relative to 2018, well below the company's guidance of 370,000-400,000 vehicles. He notes Tesla's unsold inventory "surged" 51% quarter-over-quarter to a record 18,879 cars in Q1. Johnson keeps a Sell rating on the Tesla and cut his price target for the shares to $54 from $72."
The thing is, the Vertical Group was probably sitting on a valuable TSLA short position when he made that call - stock price was around $265.
But if the Vertical Group didn't take profits when TSLA bottomed at around $180 but relied on Johnson's flawed advice that the stock was slated for sub-$100, they might have doubled down on their bet at the bottom and lost big bucks in the bounce back.
That can get you fired apparently.
I really hope Morgan Stanley and their clients traded on Adam Jonas's "our TSLA bear case is $10" thesis.
Hmmm, I've been working on this problem for millions of milliseconds, and conclude that the actual delivery number will be 80,100. My spreadsheet says that 82,500 - 81,300 = 1,200, and 81,300 - 1,200 = 80,100. I guess the average of all these estimates is something around, oh, 81,300.My numbers are a little better at 82500, hope I’m not too optimistic.
Not sharing the sheet as it took me weeks and weeks of work
Local news just did story on climate strikes, then Tesla Model 3 top safety rating, then Amazon’s electric van order. Good sign, tide is turning.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Well, it is different around Kansas City and St. Louis. Of course, as a state we are rather backwater. Not something I'm proud of, but acknowledge.There is another type of Missouri?
However, we are much more accepting of Tesla than Michigan -- at least Tesla is allowed to sell here and, unlike Michigan, we haven't changed our laws to stop that. Though the dealerships keep trying. We are leading the future taxation of EVs I was rather disappointed to learn. So while they haven't been able to ban Tesla sales they are trying to make it as painful as possible. It will certainly be more expensive, by a large margin, to "fuel" than an ICE vehicle in a few years
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