Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Why not both? Especially if they are shipping cells from GF1.
Short term: GF1 packs
Long term: GF3 packs
Allows them to focus on the vehicle line now and the pack line later instead of pack production being in the critical path.
Yes, its certainly possible to do both, its just that Telsa made an early shipment of the old battery line to GF3 and would likely have had ample time and little issue reinstalling and certifying it. Even if slightly slow, the deliberate rampup planned for Q4 should allow them to use locally assembled packs.

Cheers!
 
GAAP accounting for Tesla's solar VIEs is complex and obscure. .....

This situation continues until the lenders and equity partners are fully paid off in 10-15 years, after which Tesla gets to pocket most of the cash flows.

At least that's the plan. Large scale warranty repair or customer default issues could mess this nice scheme up. Tesla's disclosure in this regard is extremely weak - e.g. WalMart stopped paying on 248 large systems last year and investors heard nothing until the lawsuit.

This s a good explanation... the leases are valued based on future earnings that are hard to independently value...

He also missed the point that Tesla has just recently moved to ramp up Solar leases, both domestic and industrial.

My hunches on the timing are:-
  • Old leases are about to start paying some money
  • All system reliability issues similar to WalMart have been addressed.
  • Excess electricity may be valuable for Supercharging and Megacharging, if the utilities allow it to offset consumption..
I don't think there has been some sort of panicked rush back into solar, but there is a more proactive and urgent approach.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kbM3
Almost certainly not completed battery packs. We know this because:
  1. Tesla shipped the v1 battery module/pack building equipment from GF1/Sparks to GF3/Shanghai
  2. Sony announced during their 2019 AGM that they would be providing some "small amount" of battery cells for initial production at Shanghai
So it's most likely they'll send bare cells to be assembled into packs in China without shipping the bulk commodity aluminum packs across the Pacific.

Cheers!
I don't remember Sony signing on for GF3 supply could you provide link to your information.( I did a quick search and nothing popped up)
thanks- trailhound
 
However, the Model 3 is very competitively priced against the same size and class cars.

Compare it to a similarly performing BMW or Audi. Not to a Camry.

This is the mistake that many make, including some who follow Tesla closely and should know better. The Model 3 SHOULD be compared to a Camry since total cost of ownership is practically the same. It’s an old mentality to only look at the sticker price.
 
This is the mistake that many make, including some who follow Tesla closely and should know better. The Model 3 SHOULD be compared to a Camry since total cost of ownership is practically the same. It’s an old mentality to only look at the sticker price.
No, this is not a mistake, but thanks for your opinion.

The post I was replying to was clearly talking about acquisition cost, that is the full amount it's going to take to purchase the vehicle. As the price is based on the vehicle, the cost is the same for everyone (dealer differences ignored). My point here is that the model 3 is NOT more expensive to acquire than a comparable vehicle. There's more to comparing 2 cars than just size. There's a reason Elon has talked about MB C-class, BMW 3-5 series, and Audi S-Class as being competitors.

Now in addition, there's total cost of ownership, which is what you are talking about. While not part of the original conversation, it certainly is important. However, it is highly variable based on a number of things in addition to acquisition cost: miles driven per year, cost of fuel, cost of electricity, maintenance, etc... As such, it may be a significant factor for the owners driving 25K miles per year and paying only $0.10/kWh for electricity while gas is $4/gal. It will be less so for those driving 5K miles a year and paying $0.25/kWh when gas is $2.25/gal.

Nonetheless, the electric vehicle is likely to be less expensive to operate over it's lifetime. Whether that allows it to be directly compared to a Camry for TCO is dependent on unique factors for each owner.

I hope that clears it up for you.
 
Driving across Wyoming and Nebraska on Interstate 80 on Saturday and again today, and the free advertising for Tesla has been insane! I have seen at least 12 car carriers, and all but one of them were full of brand new Teslas. You can’t help but notice them with the frequency you see them. And they make every Tesla driving on the Interstate stand out as well. Whether intentional or not, trucking Teslas to the East Coast for shipping to Europe was a stroke of advertising genius! It sincerely gives the appearance that they are outselling every other car manufacturer at least 10 to 1 since perception is reality.
Yep, did that trip last week from WI to CO and about every 25 miles saw a car carrier with Teslas headed East.
 
Latest China GF3 leak from Vincent:

Vincent on Twitter

EFHxvHKVUAATB1t

The notable aspect of this picture is that in comparison to previous leaks that showed a body-in-white chassis, this one appears to be painted white already, with another one painted blue on the left - ready to go through final assembly.

I.e. GF3 stamping, body shop and paint shop are already producing sample units (!).

This is probably why they started bringing assembly line workers (the largest population of workers within a car factory) on site last week. For example in one of the drone videos from 3 days ago a queue of workers can be seen:


I presume these are line workers, and that they are getting their factory IDs there - or some other administrative step on their first day of on-site employment. In principle it's possible that one of the new workers in that line took the picture Vincent posted. :D

Tesla probably uses only a fraction of the full workforce for the assembly line trial runs, and hiring will ramp up as production ramps up. They'll also first need to bring the 220KV substation online to be able to produce at any sort of volume - and that unit still looked like a couple of weeks away from being finished in the latest videos.

But overall everything appears to be progressing smoothly, and they also got the second acceptance testing certificate in record time (without which a new car cannot be sold in China) - so no "missing homologation" or "held up by customs officers 2 weeks before end of quarter" nonsense: China wants these Teslas to be made. ;)
I can't get much from these pics. It looks like a blue painted body and an unpainted one to me, which makes no sense, so maybe the second one is white as you say. But what car "ready to go through final assembly" already has the doors on?

Best I can tell is they're testing various subsystems, in this case part of the conveyance system.
 
I don't think the JECS paper actually measured the exact cathode composition. My read was that they showed it was definitely NCA, then they said so it is probably the standard 80/15/5.
That's a bit of a leap. They say:
EDX clearly shows the presence of Ni, Co and Al in the cathode pointing to the following composition of the active material LixNi0.8Co0.15Al0.05O2 (NCA).​

Why call out a specific composition if their analysis didn't give evidence of that composition? After listing electrolyte ingredients they don't just assume some standard ratio. they specifically say: "The exact percentage composition is unknown".
93% Nickel is from the P3 Model 3 cell teardown in 2018 commissioned by UBS. UBS don't show details of P3's method though.
Yeah, the summary I saw was vague about the method, plus the results were odd. IIRC they showed zero aluminum (or maybe it was cobalt). I figure something got lost in translation, which was a shame as it'd be great to have detailed results.
The Made in China Model 3 is already being ordered and advertised with the same SR+ range.
The first Shanghai Model 3s will have Panasonic NCA cells, thus the same range. I'm not saying they will reduce the range when they ship cars with LG NMC cells, just that it's an option.

I do think that's why they won't build LR packs in Shanghai, though. There's not enough room in the LR pack for the cell-adding trick.
Why would Tesla not build cells in China?
I think it'll be years before they build meaningful quantities of their own cells anywhere. I realize that's an unpopular opinion around here.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Fact Checking
OT
A huge percentage of business trips could be removed if MSFT or whoever made a decent integrated virtual meeting system. We use Webex and then call in separately. Some attendees choose to travel to us for a mere 1.5 hour call as they get a much better understanding of the topic.
Promoting solutions rather than problem statements would help Tesla also.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UncaNed and capster
OT
A huge percentage of business trips could be removed if MSFT or whoever made a decent integrated virtual meeting system. We use Webex and then call in separately. Some attendees choose to travel to us for a mere 1.5 hour call as they get a much better understanding of the topic.
Promoting solutions rather than problem statements would help Tesla also.

Teams is what they are hoping will work. I just got off a Teams conference with a colleague in Tokyo and 25% of the time I couldn't hear him so they have a long way to go. I was in Tokyo 3 weeks ago, got home and now if the issue we are having isn't resolved soon they want me back there a week from now because me flying around the globe is the easiest way to fix the issue. Crazy considering the technology we have, that sort of works.