Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singer3000]

I believe Tesla is delaying and downplaying the Semi, because they don't have the battery capacity to reach serious production volumes, nor the capex to build a big Semi factory.

Putting out a few hundred units would only convince an even bigger segment of the automotive industry to try kill Tesla even harder. It would allow teardowns and realization of true Semi specs. Most truck makers are still in a stage of denial IMO. Tesla also didn't need the distraction from a too broad product palette.

Also, product cycles in the automotive industry are this long and even longer, and we know what happened last time when Tesla attempted to expand too fast.

Anyway, I think Elon has long ago moved on from the "convince automakers to move to EVs" stance to a "transition the world to EVs, with Tesla the market leader" strategy.

So partly back to the old “is Tesla capital constrained?” argument again.

The battery cell situation is such a source of frustration to me. We’re homing in on 2 years late from the original 10k/week Model 3 plan. Lots of water under the bridge and all and in my mind GF3 certainly was a deliberate strategic pivot which moved the date out. But it drives me mad that we’re really saying that cells are stopping the launch of a killer product when we’re still so far behind what was envisaged so recently.

The silver lining as an investor (not a resident of earth) is that this all underlines just what a hard job the field will have to even catch up to Tesla’s 2018 production levels, yet alone Tesla’s 2021/2 production.

Battery Day cannot come soon enough.

Meanwhile we have what should hopefully be a nice week to look forward to, with Starship at Boco Chica at the weekend, shortly followed by Q3 deliveries.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Semi has to wait for the million-mile battery, no? A normal pack would be done after 400k miles and that goes by quick in the hauling world.

 

[capster]

OT
A huge percentage of business trips could be removed if MSFT or whoever made a decent integrated virtual meeting system. We use Webex and then call in separately. Some attendees choose to travel to us for a mere 1.5 hour call as they get a much better understanding of the topic.
Promoting solutions rather than problem statements would help Tesla also.

T’would be awesome to to solve telepresence and, though it is not trivial to do so for real, it is something to keep an eye out for as investors.

 

[SOULPEDL]

T’would be awesome to to solve telepresence and, though it is not trivial to do so for real, it is something to keep an eye out for as investors.

Oh, are you all (or y'all) talking about meetings in the Tesla? Now that would be cool, then use the cabin camera for video feeds. Wow, another business spin-off from this car! That screen will become priceless real estate... what Apple dreams of only. (Please don't bring up the merger topic... again.)

Just sayin with Netflix and YouTube, that Tesla main screen is already a platform ready to fill with paid content. More money there and in future software add ons than the car itself. Need ink for that printer sir?

 

[CorneliusXX]

If this is true, why hasn't he already done it?

Why would he risk his other business to squeeze shorts in Tesla. Seems like a huge risk for something that will happen naturally.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The body says:
“LG Chem has reportedly begun preparing its facilities to meet the electric car maker’s demand”

In the headline, replace ‘starts’ with ‘prepares for’.

It’s also been rumoured (Carsonight) that packs, up to 3000/wk, will come from GF1. Both right? It’s possible, assuming China has a plan to ramp beyond 3000/wk. That seems right. They idea of ramping a state-of-the-art factory to 3000/wk and declaring ‘mission accomplished’ is absurd.

I don't think carsonight has suggested GF1 will supply cells for GF3.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Report: LG Starts Mass Production of Cells to Support Gigafactory 3 - Tesla Motors Club

Curious... LG has been building batteries for Tesla for some time and no one knew? Instant capacity on the newsfront?

It's difficult to tell if they were building specifically for Tesla or just on the belief that manufacturers would need them. The chemistry is different to that of the cells in GF1, is that because Tesla believes it is better or because that's what was available?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Report: LG Starts Mass Production of Cells to Support Gigafactory 3 - Tesla Motors Club

Curious... LG has been building batteries for Tesla for some time and no one knew? Instant capacity on the newsfront?

I think it has been reported/rumored many times, that Tesla has been validating a number of suppliers in the past besides Pana - most notably Samsung SDI was contracted to deliver the cells for that Australian mega project (Hornsdale) on super short notice. at that time LG Chem was also rumored to have been / being validated.

What puzzles me more is the confusion around chemistry. One would think that whoever builds the cells, they do it so based on Tesla`s specs, using their recipe, under a confidentiality agreement for sure. but some reports suggest otherwise, but I still don`t think that`s plausible.

Now if/when they switch over to Maxwell`s dry electrode design, that would be very different and they could not simply farm out production quickly as needed, as that requires different technology/machinery.

To me what`s still more likely is that GF1 would be delivering cells for GF3 initial trial production and that that would be scaled back as LG ramps up. May only go as far as the initial trial run. If they already have the dry electrode cells in the pipeline slated for e.g 2020/2021 production, it would make sense to already build GF3 with that in mind vs tooling up for the current tech and "throwing it out" after a year or two. Gear like that usually has depreciation calculated for several years, so you want to make sure you use it for years and years.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I don't think carsonight has suggested GF1 will supply cells for GF3.

Cut n paste from Disqus:

carsonight Palouser 8 hours ago

I've been told 10k batteries per week is the goal by year's end. That would be 7k per week for Fremont and 3k per week for China. I don't know how realistic this goal is or what the challenges are, because I only know a handful of employees out of 7000.

 

[KarenRei]

What puzzles me more is the confusion around chemistry. One would think that whoever builds the cells, they do it so based on Tesla`s specs, using their recipe, under a confidentiality agreement for sure. but some reports suggest otherwise, but I still don`t think that`s plausible.

A while back on Twitter, when it was discussed that Panasonic wouldn't likely be the supplier for GF3, Elon said something along the lines of "If there's any difference in the new cells and our current ones, we'll make up for it by increasing the number of cells." So IMHO this really argues that it's not "according to Tesla's recipe".

I also have the strong impression that this is purely a temporary arrangement to get GF3 started sooner. As soon as the Phase 2 battery plant comes online, Tesla would stop buying from LG, and LG would begin selling said cells to other manufacturers instead. Other manufacturers have started looking at 2170s now.

 

[KarenRei]

Elon: "We're going to be putting batteries in the nose of Starship."

Nobody: "Gee, I wonder where SpaceX might possibly acquire battery packs?"

Love this incestuous relationship between his companies

 

[Pras]

Volkswagen bosses charged in Germany over diesel scandal

German prosecutors said Tuesday they have charged Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, Chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch and former CEO Martin Winterkorn with market manipulation in connection with the diesel emissions scandal that erupted in 2015.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Norway finally starting catching steam with delivery of 233 Model 3 yesterday. Trying to overtake The Netherlands, are we? Can’t let that happen: 324 for us yesterday. Bam!

You can find all daily deliveries of the whole year here: Tesla Model 3 op kenteken

 

[KarenRei]

Volkswagen bosses charged in Germany over diesel scandal

German prosecutors said Tuesday they have charged Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, Chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch and former CEO Martin Winterkorn with market manipulation in connection with the diesel emissions scandal that erupted in 2015.

Wow!

I almost feel bad about this news; I kind of liked Diess. I somewhat doubt that whoever takes over from him, if he ends up convicted, will "get" EVs as well as he does. Diess has seemed to be trying to copy Tesla's game plan... to the degree he can push such ideas through the reluctant corporate machine at VW.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Wow!

I almost feel bad about this news; I kind of liked Diess. I somewhat doubt that whoever takes over from him, if he ends up convicted, will "get" EVs as well as he does. Diess has seemed to be trying to copy Tesla's game plan... to the degree he can push such ideas through the reluctant corporate machine at VW.

It would be ironic if the dieselgate fraud resurfaces to end VW's small steps towards electrification.

I don't think Diess is doing nearly enough on EVs, but I think the odds a successor does even less are extremely high, particularly after the Taycan/E-tron embarrassment.

 

[JRP3]

Semi has to wait for the million-mile battery, no? A normal pack would be done after 400k miles and that goes by quick in the hauling world.

No need to wait, million miles is already possible. 400 mile range with 2500 cycles gets you there, NCA can probably do it, NMC definitely.

 

[Pras]

It would be ironic if the dieselgate fraud resurfaces to end VW's small steps towards electrification.

I don't think Diess is doing nearly enough on EVs, but I think the odds a successor does even less are extremely high, particularly after the Taycan/E-tron embarrassment.

They may hire Jerome

 

[ReflexFunds]

It's worth noting that while Tesla and Dahn did not invent single crystal (micrometer size scale) NMC 532 cathodes, Dahn's group has been very focussed on researching their properties for several years now. Dahn has published many papers on how to optimise cell properties to get the most from the advantages of the single crystal cathode structure. The key results of Dahn's research are that 1) Single crystal cathode structure can be superior, 2) Ti-based surface coating on the cathode can be helpful - IF 3), they are combined with carefully chosen electrolyte additives.

Dahn and Tesla filed their first patent on choosing electrolyte additives for single crystal NMC532 cells back in July 2017. US20190036171 NOVEL BATTERY SYSTEMS BASED ON TWO-ADDITIVE ELECTROLYTE SYSTEMS

This is not new research for Tesla, they have been on the right track for over two years now and I'm sure behind the scenes they have been working towards commercialisation of this technology. In particular, the biggest obstacle to commercialisation could be affordably manufacturing single crystal NMC or NCA cathode (and ideally for a cylindrical cell format).
I think single crystal cathodes will be most dependent on the cathode powder manufacturing process used (Panasonic/Tesla's cathode powder is largely supplied by Sumitomo), but I would guess the electrode manufacturing process (currently done by Panasonic at GF1) also plays an important role in the formation of a single crystal structure.
I would guess Maxwell's dry electrode manufacturing technology may be helpful here and may be part of the rational for the acquisition (together with the cost reductions of Maxwell's process), but hopefully Tesla has also been working on an in-house cathode powder manufacturing process, or has been partnering with someone like Sumitomo, Umicore or NanoOne on R&D.

Interesting comment in Wired's article on Dahn's 1 million mile battery paper.
Tesla May Soon Have a Battery That Can Last a Million Miles

According to a former member of Dahn’s team, the likely answer is that Tesla already has at least one proprietary battery chemistry that outperforms what’s described in the benchmark paper.

Hardly surprising, but this former researcher suggests Dahn's published research is just a taster of what Tesla has been developing behind the scenes.

I don't think there is much need for more cycle life than the battery in Dahn's paper, so I would guess if Tesla has made further progress it will be on energy density/Nickel content (Maybe NMC811 or NCA 80-95% Nickel), plus work on commercialisation including efficient manufacturing techniques.

 

[KarenRei]

It would be ironic if the dieselgate fraud resurfaces to end VW's small steps towards electrification.

I don't think Diess is doing nearly enough on EVs, but I think the odds a successor does even less are extremely high, particularly after the Taycan/E-tron embarrassment.

I agree that VW isn't doing enough, but I think Diess is doing all he realistically can. He's not dictator of the company, and he seems to be the most pro-EV voice in the executive ranks.

 

[AlMc]

They may hire Jerome

That thought made me nauseated........