Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

The only limit I've ever had is 5 over. I'm not 100% what roads have the limit and which don't (I mean the official position). For me, on AP1, I am always restricted on 2 lane roads. I'm never restricted on interstates or 4 lane roads with a median. It seems if there's a 4 lane road with a turning lane between, it always restricts me. But, I can say for sure.

Maybe it did kick in but it was too late to significantly slow down a car.

Again, running (or at least almost running) a red light is the easiest mistake to make on AP in my experience (stop sign same thing).

I hope we never know TBH.

BTW - do you own or regularly drive a Tesla?

AP 2.5 here, and unless it's a freeway (or very rare errors in the speed posted), mine will only go 5 mph over the limit.
"Speeding" in the police report almost certainly eliminates AP.

 

[brian45011]

As both a large supplier and consumer of electricity Telsa will be able to negotiate good deals with utilities.

Maybe in OZ, but not in the USA. Bi-lateral deals must be pursuant to existing tariffs or the parties have to go through a lengthy and expensive docket at the state's PUC to obtain a ruling that the "good deal" is in "the public interest." Those dockets attract aggressive "consumer advocate" intervenors.
​

 

[brian45011]

Cannon-Brookes' plan to power Singapore

Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes will invest part of his personal wealth in a $25 billion project to create the world's biggest solar farm, its biggest power storage system, and a 3000-kilometer cable to export energy to Asia.
It seems the energy storage part will be from Tesla.

I have great respect to entrepreneurs like Mike. These people have vision and are willing to do good. Politicians can't solve real issues, great entrepreneurs together can.

It's a "completely batshit insane project", Mr Cannon-Brookes conceded.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not saying all the engineers at Nio were from Tesla, but the assumption that Tesla should automatically want the Nio engineers because ‘they must be worth having?’ is quite possibly a bad assumption.

Of course, an engineer is only as good as the direction they are given. The fact that Nio didn't have a great product was more likely due to poor management than bad engineers. In bleeding edge technology (and EV development is more technology than automaking) management must be tech savvy to properly direct the engineers. This is not something management can get simply by listening to their engineers. It has to come from within.

That said, you do need good engineers and this is one more reason Tesla will likely continue to do well for years to come. All the newest and brightest engineers in this field want to work for Tesla. Not Porche/Audi/VW/GM or Ford.

 

[MC3OZ]

Probably another banned topic that I don't know about, but when has that stopped me from broaching *very serious topics* so....

Tesla is selling a buttload of M3s around here, and I expect they sell in geographic clumps as certain areas get superchargers, service centers, and referrals. It used to be unique just to have a Tesla but now they're all over the parking lot.

Tesla should offer special colors or other visual differentiation + coating at a premium. This would boost margins and cater to buyers who want something different. When simply having a Tesla was unique, it wasn't necessary but there's so many M3s here and they have such a limited palette.



My impression is that Tesla isn't discounting or including as many incentives as previous quarters. If that's true, I would think they're ok. But all the more reason for special colors.

I would also like to see more colors on the production side, opening a new paint shop would do it..

But the parts side is difficult... all I can think of is shipping primed panels and having them painted at the body shop or a Tesla warehouse near by... If they can combine that with some smart color scanner that can match the color and premix the right paint color then they can do it.
That sort of color matching is trival for household paints, ....I have no idea how hard it would be for automotive.

Assuming they can solve the technical / logistics issues they can do a lot with paint, and special colors, for a limited time, can be sold at a premium, or used to drive additional demand....

On further reflection I think the special paint color can be on a yearly basis, e.g. 2020 Silver, 2021 Racing Green. .. the additional logistics and inventory considerations are not that great and the special color will be popular.

 

[Cattledog]

BMW can sell every 3 Series they can produce. Mercedes can sell every C Class they can produce.

The question is net margin. Do they add to the bottom line and how much.

Are you confident in your verb? BMW can sell every 3 series BMW they do produce. But it looks like they could sell about 50% more in 2002 and 2007.

BMW 3 Series Sales (Wikipedia) - Total, Europe, US

1999 454,000[21] 304,983 77,138
2000 509,007[21] 330,604 89,681
2001 533,952[21] 343,991 103,227
2002 561,249[21] 350,606 115,428
2003 528,358[21] 320,029 111,944
2004 449,732[21] 269,216 106,549
2005 434,342[21] 244,886 106,950
2006 508,479[21] 289,597 120,180
2007 555,219[22] 295,063 142,490
2008 474,208[23] 251,334 112,464
2009 397,103[24] 198,610 90,960
2010 399,009[25] 183,122 100,910
2011 384,464 161,614 94,371
2012 406,752 175,022 99,602
2013 500,332[26] 200,604 119,521
2014 480,214[27] 168,275 142,232
2015 444,338[28] 143,023 140,609
2016 411,844[28] 144,561 106,221
2017 409,005 129,053 99,083
2018 366,475 [29] 106,991 75,957

 

[brian45011]

Could be this plan: (starts with 500 MWh storage)
Pre-assembled concept proposed for 10 GW Australian PV project

Sun Cable has set a timeline to start construction in 2023 with commercial operations to start in 2027.

 

[RobStark]

To clarify, the ship is a general cargo ship. But word is all Model 3s to Australia have been delivered in containers.

Not sure why, but that’s what they’re saying.

Fun Fact

Model 3 Standard Plus and BMW 3 Series start at AUD $67,900.

 

[RobStark]

My impression is that Tesla isn't discounting or including as many incentives as previous quarters. If that's true, I would think they're ok. But all the more reason for special colors.

For a while they were doing two free options plus 2k miles of free supercharging.

Now, I think they are doing one free option plus 2k miles of free supercharging.

 

[kengchang]

For a while they were doing two free options plus 2k miles of free supercharging.

Now, I think they are doing one free option plus 2k miles of free supercharging.

It's two years free SC

 

[Doggydogworld]

Yeah I was being a little sarcastic. But it’s something.

They sent a RoRo to China at the end of Q2 which arrived in early Q3. A baby step as the ship carried few cars, but still more than this seems to be.

 

[gene]

Santa Barbara, CA is supposedly quite busy with deliveries. My friend Sof was helping out there today. I'll be there this weekend to join in with delivery help. Generally what happens is we volunteers, after the car is in the owner's hands but before they drive away, help familiarize the new owners with all the settings and features.

Of note, in the past practically all the buyers who show up and have young children, the parents inform me it was their kids who brought the attention of Tesla to the parents. Some parents have told me that their kids insisted they buy a Tesla and no other car.

 

[Buckminster]

Posted in the financial projection thread:

BMW 3-Series L China auto sales figures

BMW sells about 10k per month of 3 series in China. If we assume similar figures for Model 3, we are looking at ~2.5k/week.

Largest plugin in China sells about 8k per month. So, 10k per month is not that far fetched.

EV Sales: China July 2019

I expect Tesla to only produce ~1k per week in the beginning in Q1 '20, though. Gradually increasing to meet demand. They should be able to dial back production in case of lower demand.

Will Tesla stretch the M3 for the Chinese market? A 4 seat lux MY would fly off the shelves in China.

 

[Reinhard]

Posted in the financial projection thread:

Will Tesla stretch the M3 for the Chinese market? A 4 seat lux MY would fly off the shelves in China.

Luxury minivans are actually the hot vehicle form in China. I would like to see a Model V after Y.

 

[CorneliusXX]

No comprendo. Debt obligations are detailed in Note 11 on page 23 of the latest 10Q.

Sorry, I was wondering if the debt maturity date is the same as you see in an ABS securitisation where it is technically an optional redemption date (at the option of the issuer, usually so the assets can be refinanced and relevered) or is it a hard maturity date where the issuer is in default?

In an ABS securitisation the issuer won't be able to access the markets if they don't excercise their "cleanup call" on the optional redemption date as investors will have no faith in how long their money will be unavailable, but they also won't be in default (technically)

 

[acoste]

Are you confident in your verb? BMW can sell every 3 series BMW they do produce. But it looks like they could sell about 50% more in 2002 and 2007.

BMW 3 Series Sales (Wikipedia) - Total, Europe, US

1999 454,000[21] 304,983 77,138
2000 509,007[21] 330,604 89,681
2001 533,952[21] 343,991 103,227
2002 561,249[21] 350,606 115,428
2003 528,358[21] 320,029 111,944
2004 449,732[21] 269,216 106,549
2005 434,342[21] 244,886 106,950
2006 508,479[21] 289,597 120,180
2007 555,219[22] 295,063 142,490
2008 474,208[23] 251,334 112,464
2009 397,103[24] 198,610 90,960
2010 399,009[25] 183,122 100,910
2011 384,464 161,614 94,371
2012 406,752 175,022 99,602
2013 500,332[26] 200,604 119,521
2014 480,214[27] 168,275 142,232
2015 444,338[28] 143,023 140,609
2016 411,844[28] 144,561 106,221
2017 409,005 129,053 99,083
2018 366,475 [29] 106,991 75,957

The missing portion went into X2, X3, X4, X5 sales. There is no drop in total BMWs sold.

 

[KSilver2000]

Of note, in the past practically all the buyers who show up and have young children, the parents inform me it was their kids who brought the attention of Tesla to the parents. Some parents have told me that their kids insisted they buy a Tesla and no other car.

Peer pressure.
It starts early on in kindergarten these days.
Everyone has to have a birthday party that costs ~$75/head, everyone needs to have the latest toys, and now a Tesla.

Don’t even get me started on public schools where the PTA lead does a dog and pony show to get parents to “donate” up to $5,000/yr.

 

[Fact Checking]

How many of those Nio engineers came from Tesla?

Few I'd say: NIO is concentrated in China where Tesla didn't have much of an engineering presence until this year, and top engineering talent from Silicon Valley rarely goes to China to work for small startups.

Hence Elon's focus on the strategic importance of their China based R&D team, IMHO.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Cannon-Brookes' plan to power Singapore

Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes will invest part of his personal wealth in a $25 billion project to create the world's biggest solar farm, its biggest power storage system, and a 3000-kilometer cable to export energy to Asia.
It seems the energy storage part will be from Tesla.

I have great respect to entrepreneurs like Mike. These people have vision and are willing to do good. Politicians can't solve real issues, great entrepreneurs together can.

I respect him too, but I wonder how Asian countries could ever get comfortable with energy security with power being shipped in from a foreign country through the ocean. Australia could shut them down with the flip of a switch and any other enemy could easily cut the undersea cable.

 

[Fact Checking]

2008 was a once in a century event, so saying “bam all of a sudden it’s 2008 again”, does not make sense to me.

Indeed there's very little chance of a U.S. housing crash for the next couple of years, and it pretty much requires a housing crisis for financial institutions to get squeezed hard enough to create a 2008 alike run on banks.

Run of the mill recessions originating in one sector or another generally won't do.

I called this way back early this year when everyone was freaking out about bad U.S. housing numbers:

I.e. of the ~6 global recession risks that were present in Q4:

• China recession going global
  
• China trade war causing global recession
  
• Federal Reserve rate hikes causing U.S. recession
  
• U.S. housing market crash causing U.S. recession
  
• BRExit crash causing global recession
  
• U.S. tech sector driven U.S. recession

The probability of all of these has decreased substantially based on latest events and based on latest economic data, with the exception of BRExit, which is still the same delusive cluster-sugar headed for a hard BRExit I warned about months ago. Today's Tusk comments made it finally really clear to everyone in the U.K. that Europe is sick of the egocentric BRExit mess and is perfectly fine with the U.K. performing economic seppuku via hard-BRExit.

Once there's a China trade deal and the UK has finally crashed out of the EU there's going to be good growth everywhere (except the UK that is - but it's a comparatively small market), and Trump certainly doesn't want a U.S. recession right before his re-election fight. The Fed is probably not going to do anything drastic, to stay out of 2020 presidential election politics.

If Boris Johnson hangs on until October 31 then the UK might finally crash out of the EU - big UK businesses are mostly prepared and want this over with (in reality it won't be "over": the BRExit date will only be Chapter 1 in a very long and painful to read book), small businesses and people with income below the median are going to hurt big time because they are neither prepared nor have the financial buffers to weather the storm.

So Tesla should IMHO sell as many cars in the UK and Europe as possible, before things get worse ...