Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Well, you found a scary article title but Tesla doesn't report monthly numbers, they report quarterly. And what wasn't sold in August will fall to September (so absolutely zero effect on Tesla's quarterly numbers). Nada, zilch. Irrelevant.

I was referring to the article to say the industry reports numbers on Wednesday

 

[HG Wells]

Makes me want to market a cable cap with an appropriate resistor. Parts: $0.10. Retail: $19.99 plus shipping. Retirement secured.

First time you run over a little old lady and your insurance company finds out that you unpluged it, do you think they will cover your liability ?

 

[EVNow]

I'd be up for trying to compute the net picture, but I don't have a good sense for Q2/Q3 US trim mixes, as I haven't been trying to track them (I've only been coming across lots of reports like the one above suggesting that the US ratio of SR+ has significantly dropped in Q3).

After the P&D we'll probably be talking a lot about this.

Is there a registration (NY?) data on this - rather than anecdotal ?

 

[StealthP3D]

First time you run over a little old lady and your insurance company finds out that you unpluged it, do you think they will cover your liability ?

Yes, just like they do if you're drunk and you hurt someone.

 

[mrmage]

Tesla vs NIO is not a zero sum game. China takes pride in building companies more than innovating IP. China would likely prefer to have 5 good EV companies over 4. The only thing that makes me doubt China would bail them out is how public their failure is already. If it had been caught before this point I would have been more confident that something would be done

Just spoke to my father who makes 2 more points:

1. Tesla is the most prestigious brand among EVs. Chinese place value on prestige, which boosts national pride.

2. Making the most technologically advanced EV, Tesla is a strategic investment for China. Nio is just one of many, but has no strategic value. If Nio was like Huawei, China would back them at all costs.

 

[Causalien]

I'm wondering what the driving force behind the anti-NIO decisions of Beijing is:

• Is it Tesla's lobbying prowess? Highly doubt it ...
• Is NIO a scam that Beijing realized too late and just wants to cut out before it festers? Possible, but then why didn't they just take over NIO and wind it down quietly, instead of letting it fail spectacularly? Tencent will lose big with NIO, and they should have 100x of Tesla's influence in Beijing.
• Some other motivation? Do they want to set an example? Did NIO attempt to bribe them or insulted the daughter of Xi Jinping?

It's a true mystery that is baffling to me: Chinese national pride is huge, and rightfully so considering the transformation to an economic and military superpower during the past 50 years, and it just doesn't make any sense to me why they'd so visibly choose a U.S. company over a Chinese one.

Does anyone have any good explanation for this?

If the Chinese want to be proud of a China made EV, it'd probably be something from BYD who never tried to imitate a US company. This is what I meant before when talking about this. When the Chinese look at NIO, they see some Chinese car manufacturer who wants to be a western company. It does not instill pride. If they want western product, they buy directly from western company. If they want a Chinese product they go with BYD.

This is the stigma of any Chinese company who IPO in USA and brand themselves as the "blah blah" of China. The ones that will succeed in China can never brand themselves that way. This type of branding is to sell to US investors and once they do that, they lost their favor with the Chinese market (or they already know they don't have the favors of the Chinese market, so had to sell to US investors).

 

[Steve m]

First time you run over a little old lady and your insurance company finds out that you unpluged it, do you think they will cover your liability ?

To hit the little old lady, you have to disable the emergency breaking as well.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

LOL. Tesla couldn’t have made it too much easier.

It didn't sound that bad. I'm not sure if I would disconnect it or not.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

OT OT OT (Obsession: Trench)

There a "linear structure" that looks something like an underground utility tunnel, running much of the length of the factory ... If that includes a conveyance belt (we don't know whether it does or could), it might be carrying battery modules to the factory, without holding up surface traffic and without vehicle loading/unloading overhead.

It is indeed getting poured and roofed as a long vault -mostly. Can’t be a traditional linear belt as of this week though. Follow it to the “substation end” of the property - It zigs, zags, and only THEN widens right in front of the big white bldg.

Still could be a drone raceway of some kind, sure. Wheeled bots hauling cells would be fun. I think more like boring old “honking big cables.”
Its subsurface neighborhood is getting further developed as we speak. We’ll know pretty soon.

 

[Navin]

It won’t make any sense to do this right before the p&d report - but I bet we see a downgrade tomorrow am by a Wall Street analyst to keep Tesla in the cage.

 

[Unpilot]

If he is going to release anything from these with such a lousy performance, I'm gonna start to protest.

As far as I can tell every one of your post's are in one way or another a protest.

You seem genuinely unhappy.

 

[Thekiwi]

SR+ surged in August, but in September - when most deliveries have been - LR AWD took over again (e.g. the SR+ backlog seems to have been filled).

View attachment 460727

The EU SR+ share will fall (slightly) even more by the end of the quarter at the end of the day on Monday. Probably about 35-40% for Q3 as a whole in Europe, vs. ~8% for Q2. M3P deliveries are up by a couple percent.

Also, remember that the number of US Model 3 sales in Q2 was 2 1/2 times more than EU Model 3 Q2 sales, so a change in the US SR/LR ratio matters more. The difference is closer this quarter than last, but the US is still a significantly bigger market. If US SR+'s ratio is down only ~15%, that would more than offset the change in EU mix.

Also to factor in:

• The change in pricing
• The change in COGS
• Non-US/EU sales (last quarter = 10%; more this quarter)
  • One can expect new markets to be prioritized towards M3P / AWD deliveries, as Tesla always does this with new markets.
  • New markets probably represent about 1/8th of total deliveries this quarter.

I'd be up for trying to compute the net picture, but I don't have a good sense for Q2/Q3 US trim mixes, as I haven't been trying to track them (I've only been coming across lots of reports like the one above suggesting that the US ratio of SR+ has significantly dropped in Q3).

In NZ at least majority of model 3 being delivered are SR+

 

[SpeedGoat]

It didn't sound that bad. I'm not sure if I would disconnect it or not.

Tesla should start doing holiday themed pedestrian warning noises. Jingle Bells, Star Spangled Banner, etc

Mod: we are not going to have this kind of discussion here. Take it to:
Should EVs Make Artificial Sounds at Low Speeds?
Please note that that thread is in a different part of the forum, we mods can't move the posts, so we will just delete them from here on.
BTW: The rules are not yet actually in force. You can protest them. See info in that thread.
--ggr

 

[SpaceCash]

I made my conclusions based on reading the Enhanced Summon, where are you? and Enhanced Summon coming (Elon tweet 6 Apr, 2019) threads. I just posted some other tests in the first one.
Additionally (this is not summon) one of my friends backed straight into a pickup truck. They swore there were no warning before the impact. Sensors but specially the software are not that robust yet.
In Roddie Hassan's video the was in near collision due to ignoring the traffic laws. in other cases it just drives in the wild regardless of stop signs and lanes. Blocked people for good amount of time. I wouldn't be surprised if someone is gonna get beaten up for it. In the Costco video the car keeps creeping forward pointing the wheels towards the pedestrian.

Enhanced/advanced/smart. none of these describe the status or the functionality right now.

Could you make this post any FUDdier if you tried? I especially like the part where you imply physical violence towards Tesla owners is likely, that was a nice touch.

Good work soldier, keep it up.

 

[MC3OZ]

If the Chinese want to be proud of a China made EV, it'd probably be something from BYD who never tried to imitate a US company. This is what I meant before when talking about this. When the Chinese look at NIO, they see some Chinese car manufacturer who wants to be a western company. It does not instill pride. If they want western product, they buy directly from western company. If they want a Chinese product they go with BYD.

This is the stigma of any Chinese company who IPO in USA and brand themselves as the "blah blah" of China. The ones that will succeed in China can never brand themselves that way. This type of branding is to sell to US investors and once they do that, they lost their favor with the Chinese market (or they already know they don't have the favors of the Chinese market, so had to sell to US investors).

Some one said it earlier but there are really 3 points about a Tesla made in China:-

1. I am sure the Chinese view the car as made in China.
2. Chinese consumers want the best, and being able to drive the best is a symbol of Chinese success.
3. Tesla is pushing Chinese car companies to be better, the aim is to be better than all other car makers..

If Tesla ends up being the number 1 car company in terms of specs and 2 Chinese car companies fill spots 2 and 3, the Chinese government will be overjoyed.

People think it i about stealing Tesla's IP, but they don't need a factory in China to do that...

A factory in China exposes Chinese car makers to competition from Tesla in their home market, and forces them to refine their products for later export.

As long as Tesla has the best tech, the Chinese will be very happy for them to operate a factory in China..

 

[Reinhard]

On topic observation: I’m at Santa Barbara Tesla volunteering with deliveries. The past two quarters were mostly model 3 SR+ being delivered. Today I am seeing better ratio of S and X being delivered than last 2 quarters. So far I think all the Model 3’s being delivered are Long Range and Performance. I realize this is a small sample but if it reflects worldwide it would be evidence for higher average selling price per vehicle than quarters passed. Oh yeah, one more thing I noticed is more female buyers than usual. The new low speed sound effect is annoying as hell.

How did the day go? How was the final S/X ratio? Were there more X than S?

 

[gene]

How did the day go? How was the final S/X ratio? Were there more X than S?

I had to leave 1/2 hour ago, and as things were getting even busier. It is only 5 pm here so there is still plenty of time to the day. As one would think today would be all about deliveries, there was still a steady and large flow of people coming to the store to test drive and buy cars. I'd say there was 3 to 6 sales transactions happening at all times after 12 noon. I can't say the ratio exactly. Between S and X, definitely more X than S. Rough estimate would be: X:S:3 ratio= something like 2:1:4. Remember small sample of one store and during only 6 hours. But I can say compared to last 2 or 3 quarters which seemed like almost all Model 3 SR+, this was definitely higher average sales prices (ASP).

 

[Reinhard]

Teslike Model 3 Survey #1

Sorting by delivery date, it looks there are 253 deliveries entered so far in September vs 283 in June. It looks like my fears of a slow US September was unfounded. There was an uptick in US deliveries in July and August. Europe numbers are massive thanks to the UK and Netherlands. If Tesla can deliver as much in the US in September as they did in June.....then Elon was sandbagging when he emailed the "possible" 100K figure.

 

[KarenRei]

After the P&D we'll probably be talking a lot about this.

Is there a registration (NY?) data on this - rather than anecdotal ?

Oh, good idea!

Q2:

• 3571 lbs 4DSD: 41
• 3618 lbs 4DSD: 1
• 3619 lbs 4DSD: 348
• 3716 lbs 4DSD: 1
• 3839 lbs 4DSD: 58
• 3865 lbs 4DSD: 282
• 4072 lbs 4DSD: 2
• 4092 lbs 4DSD: 530
• 4116 lbs 4DSD: 61
• 4638 lbs 4DSD: 10
  
• 4673 lbs 4DSD: 1
• 4805 lbs 4DSD: 6
• 4873 lbs 4DSD: 99
• 4930 lbs 4DSD: 17
• 4992 lbs 4DSD: 9
• 5174 lbs SUBN: 30
• 5410 lbs SUBN: 127
• 5520 lbs SUBN: 30
• Unknown: 2

I'm going to interpret this as:

• Model 3 SR-/SR+ (3627lbs nominal): 41+1+348+1+58+282 = 731 (Although I'm not sure about those 58+282 - MR wasn't still for sale, was it?)
• Model 3 LR AWD/P (4072lbs nominal): 2+530+61 = 593
• Model S 75D & other inventory: 10+1+6 = 17
• Model S LR (4883lbs nominal): 99
• Model S P (4941lbs nominal): 17
• Model X 75D & other inventory: 30
• Model X LR (5421lbs nominal): 127
• Model X P (5531lbs nominal): 30
• Unknown: 2 (2x 5-passenger 4DSD)

I should automate the vehicle classification of the NY data and add in ASP estimation. They even have colour in there.

Anyway, of Model 3s, this equals 55% SR-/SR+. Now let's check July:. I'll skip the listing of each individual weight and just go to the summaries:

• Model 3 SR-/SR+ (3627lbs nominal): 87 (3600-ish) + 9 (3800-ish) = 96
• Model 3 LR AWD/P (4072lbs nominal): 134
• Model S 75D & other inventory: 6
• Model S LR (4883lbs nominal): 26
• Model S P (4941lbs nominal): 6
• Model X 75D & other inventory: 12
• Model X LR (5421lbs nominal): 17
• Model X P (5531lbs nominal): 7 (5520) + 1 (5732??) = 8
• Unknown: 2 (2x 5-passenger 4DSD)

That's 42% SR-/SR+. And now for August (probably more indicative of the quarter as a whole than Jul+Aug)

• Model 3 SR-/SR+ (3627lbs nominal): 94 (3600-ish) + 12 (3800-ish) = 106
• Model 3 LR AWD/P (4072lbs nominal): 204
• Model S 75D & other inventory: 9
• Model S LR (4883lbs nominal): 29
• Model S P (4941lbs nominal): 6
• Model X 75D & other inventory: 7
• Model X LR (5421lbs nominal): 43
• Model X P (5531lbs nominal): 8
• Unknown: 2 (1x 7-passenger, 1x 5-passenger 4DSD)

That's 34% SR-/SR+.

Vs. 55% for all of Q2, that's quite a difference. Someone want to run the ASP numbers with the old vs. the new pricing? I need to get to bed. If people want to go farther and estimate revenue and margin, don't forget to account for the COGS decline, which is always significant QoQ

ED: I think the price cut was a bit under $1000/2000/5000 for SR+/AWD/P, respectively. Let's just act like it's exactly that. So the prices (Q2 / Q3) would be:

SR+: $39990 / $38990
AWD: $49990 / $47990
P: $60990 / $55990

Let's say P is 4% of sales in Q2 and 8% of sales in August. This yields a Q2 ASP (without options) of $44930 and an August ASP (without options) of $45570. $640 more in August. But battery costs average about $400 more, assuming about a $2k difference in pack costs. Maybe 1/2% higher margins on Model 3, not accounting for the COGS decline. Which I expect to add several percent to margins.

Næs

 

[Green Pete]

I was at the Burlington, WA supercharger the other day and I met with some new owners from Vancouver who claimed they were witnessing 50 cars delivered a day. I was also quite shocked that even having only been Tesla owners since v10 started to roll out how little they knew about the cars. I really hope Tesla ramps up their instructional videos from the console now that they exist. They had no idea about summon, how to adjust charging limit, were blown away by the prospect of robo taxis.

Also used that charger a few hours later to see a number of people who had clearly never used a supercharger before try to figure out how to plug it in. Some had at first gotten the adapter bag out and were trying to use that with the supercharger. They really should just make a orientation video.

The upside though being that I was clearly witnessing a ton of new owners.