Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Brisbane was doing 50 cars per day, when we picked up our car on Sat.... and I got the impression at least 50 cars per day for a few days before that... possibly longer. and this would be less than Sydney or Melbourne...
Originally I had a guesstimate of around 500 Model 3s in Brisbane for Q3, I am inclined to increase that having seen the operation firsthand.. They can park at least 100 cars underground at the delivery centre and they seem very well organised..
For example I asked about brake-fluid they had been topping all cars up regularly, to avoid customers getting largely phantom warnings..

 

[Carl Raymond]

For example I asked about brake-fluid they had been topping all cars up regularly, to avoid customers getting largely phantom warnings

Are you saying that a new car arrives and they top up the brake fluid? That’s such a simple thing to get right at the factory. Shouldn’t happen.

 

[MC3OZ]

Are you saying that a new car arrives and they top up the brake fluid? That’s such a simple thing to get right at the factory. Shouldn’t happen.

There was some chat on owner forums about this, a few owners topped up their own brake fluid and windscreen washing water.

At a minimum I wanted to know how easy it was to check...

The Tesla staff member told me the on screen warning was a bit fussy they had to top all cars up to avoid it...

There was also a bunch of cars on a particular boat that had issues with the 12 V batteries with August deliveries being delayed to September and sometimes happening after later arriving boats...

Whether or not the 12 V battery issue was the cause of the other problems, or if deliveries to Australia were rushed out of the factory is hard to say...

Cars being delivered were built around mid-July, due to the shipping logistics, they probably need to ship ASAP and sort minor issues or later.

Very few customers are reporting problems..... most of my info is from the Australian section of TMC and :-https://forums.whirlpool.net.au

 

[MP3Mike]

Cool that Tesla are logging the heart beat of the summon users, should help them select ”interesting” runs to add to their training dataset.
summon stats - Pastebin.com

Wrong heart beat. They are logging the time between messages from the phone saying that their finger is still on the button.

 

[larmor]

Just read an article on wired (I’m not going to post the link). It goes on and on how about how the taycan is the best ev that $150k can buy. It then compares to a model 3. I was confused but now I understand, model s is less than $150 and the gold and inconel plated model 3 would be an equivalent comparison....

 

[Chenkers]

Are you saying that a new car arrives and they top up the brake fluid? That’s such a simple thing to get right at the factory. Shouldn’t happen.

Apparantly RHD models require a greater volume of break fluid and this wasn't being filled correctly in the factory. Early deliveries were getting brake system fault warnings but the delivery centres are now topping them up. I picked up our SR+ on Friday and haven't had any issues.

 

[MC3OZ]

It is great in Australia that in addition to Superchargers we have:-

Our Network | Evie Networks

(Looks like the evie site is down temporarily, just after I posted)

and

Network - Chargefox

So much so that it makes sense for Model S/X to eventually adopt the Model 3 charging standard in Australia and I suspect in Europe and UK.

One new evie charger is in an ideal location for us, it makes sense for Tesla to eventually put also a Supercharger somewhere along that corridor, but with these additional options Tesla has a bit ore time and can wait until the fleet size justifies the investment.

The way Model 3 sales are going, we will not be waiting long.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I'm wondering what the driving force behind the anti-NIO decisions of Beijing is:

• Is it Tesla's lobbying prowess? Highly doubt it ...
• Is NIO a scam that Beijing realized too late and just wants to cut out before it festers? Possible, but then why didn't they just take over NIO and wind it down quietly, instead of letting it fail spectacularly? Tencent will lose big with NIO, and they should have 100x of Tesla's influence in Beijing.
• Some other motivation? Do they want to set an example? Did NIO attempt to bribe them or insulted the daughter of Xi Jinping?

It's a true mystery that is baffling to me: Chinese national pride is huge, and rightfully so considering the transformation to an economic and military superpower during the past 50 years, and it just doesn't make any sense to me why they'd so visibly choose a U.S. company over a Chinese one.

Does anyone have any good explanation for this?

I don't think NIO is a big deal at all. It certainly is not to China what GM is to the US.

Just because its CEO shamelessly called it the Tesla of China, doesn't mean it's a big name. Heck we even often complain about people's lack of knowledge of the actual Tesla. And when it comes to NIO, it is much worse, there are far fewer people that have heard of this brand out side of the car circle.

NIO's demise (inevitable IMO) has much more to do with its own stupid upper-class life-style business strategy (rather than actual core tech) than with competition.

As for the Chinese government's role, all I can say is that NIO is not a state-owned company, so it won't hurt national pride. Companies live and die by market rules all the time.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

The TESLAQ crowd will say that they want to steal Tesla's technology and use it for the glory of China and Chinese companies. If that were the motive, I doubt they needed to bring the factory over. They could also have gotten far through industrial espionage or reverse engineering.

But according to old Bob Lutz, who knows the ins and outs about the automobile industry, Tesla has no technological advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage, no advantage whatsoever.

What can the Chinese steal from a company like this?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Apparantly RHD models require a greater volume of break fluid and this wasn't being filled correctly in the factory. Early deliveries were getting brake system fault warnings but the delivery centres are now topping them up. I picked up our SR+ on Friday and haven't had any issues.

Fair enough, that actually makes sense. The factory will get it right from here on.

Almost like they read Wright’s Law and went, “OK Team, we have to get this wrong the first time, it’s the law”.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fair enough, that actually makes sense. The factory will get it right from here on.

Almost like they read Wright’s Law and went, “OK Team, we have to get this wrong the first time, it’s the law”.

Could be worse, mate. They could have repeated the mistake they made in China, and forgotten to print the Safety Stickers in Australian.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

I should automate the vehicle classification of the NY data and add in ASP estimation. They even have colour in there.

Nice find!

Is there a backlog or delay of NY registrations, or does the data include deliver date?

If there's acdelat then the SR+ take rate percentage you calculated would shift a few weeks earlier - making Q3 ASP even better?

 

[NicoV]

Are you saying that a new car arrives and they top up the brake fluid? That’s such a simple thing to get right at the factory. Shouldn’t happen.

I had a warning about low cooling fluid level a couple of days after the delivery of my Model 3. The sec guy couldn’t find a leak and just added some cooling fluid. His explanation was that the first fillup at the factory could contain some air bubbles, that disappear by the time the customer gets the car, resulting in low fluid levels warnings.

 

[ElectricFarmBoy]

Picked up my P3D in Vancouver on Friday (replacing my trusty 2012 signature red S). Well oiled operation. They said they were delivering around 60 per day and will close out the quarter doing so.

I had planned to wait another month or two to pull the trigger, but the relatively worthless incentive of free supercharging for two years combined with the fact they actually had precisely the colour and trim I wanted here pushed me over the edge…

After only 50km I gotta say the 3 is pretty sweet. I’ve only driven Honda civics for most of the rest of my life, so the smaller size is very appealing. Do miss air suspension and the power lift gate though.

 

[Papafox]

Looking towards Monday's opening, I see that futures for the NASDAQ are up at present (+0.54%). That can, of course, change quickly with a comment from you-know-who in the White House. I see longs as looking forward to a good P&D report, so they're in no mood to sell. The percentage of selling tagged to short sellers has been sky-high for a week and was at 64% on Friday. Expect the manipulators to try capping stock run ups and selling on the dips to accelerate the losses. Volatility looks like the easiest thing to predict.

The worst thing the shorts could see is a high volume day in which the SP of TSLA climbs steadily into close. Once volume is high enough, TSLA becomes much harder to manipulate.

Some recent trends we've seen:
* When there's a mandatory morning dip (MMD) and it is quickly defeated, the stock price will usually run uphill for a while afterwards.
* When TSLA has a nice gain going into the noon hour or so and volume drops off, we often see selling start as some profit is taken by traders and the manipulators get into the act and sell with the aim of depressing the stock price into close. Remember that the manipulators make money short-selling when they can cover at a lower price than they entered the short position, and so a pushdown in the low volume afternoon hours is a particularly attractive target.
* Last Thursday's trading with a break upwards after 1pm and a climb into close was particularly bullish. I wouldn't mind seeing a repeat.

 

[Tslynk67]

"White House Weighing Limits on U.S. Portfolio Flows Into China" | Bloomberg

Dictators don't sit well with Americans in my experience. Jus' sayin'. Tesla is a multinational by nature. They have significant presence in all these places:

• California: production & assembly, design, engineering, logistics
• Nevada: manufacturing, mining
  
• Canada: bty cell testing, minerals sourcing
• Germany: robot/automation engineering + manufacturing
• Greece: electric motor research and design
  
• China: components sourcing, production, final assembly, engineering
• N.B. large mining contracts: Australia, Chile, Indonesia, Nevada, Canada

Did I miss anything major? Then we'll add the EU/GF4 to this list soon enough, and likely another Gigafactory in a 2nd city in China soon after that. More on Tesla in China in my next comment.

Cheers!

Tilburg final assembly factory (if they're still using it for that??)

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 August 2019

 

[KarenRei]

Could be worse, mate. They could have repeated the mistake they made in China, and forgotten to print the Safety Stickers in Australian.

Hmm... I'm not a professional Australian translator, but I could try...

"HIGH VOLTAGE BATTERY: If you and your mates look past the tyres under your Model 3 you'll find a floor-mounted 400 volt lithium-ion battery. Much bigger than the 12V you find under your bonnet, it's still smaller than what you'd find on a prime mover for an electric roadtrain, or even a ute. It can be identified by the bare matt aluminium surface, without a lick of paint; use a torch if operating in a dim environment. If you don't want to start a bushfire or end up having to call 000, do not breach the floor pan. When disposing of the battery, don't just toss it in the skip...."

Nice find!

Is there a backlog or delay of NY registrations, or does the data include deliver date?

It includes a registration date. I'm not sure whether there is a lag or not between delivery date and registration date the registration date is a "most recent registration" date, so it's misleading for old Teslas, but should be quite accurate for new ones.

The NY data comes out monthly.

If there's acdelat then the SR+ take rate percentage you calculated would shift a few weeks earlier - making Q3 ASP even better?

Potentially.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Not liking Fred's new forecast. 6 figures a significant psychological barrier to cross.

 

[Todd Burch]

Not liking Fred's new forecast. 6 figures a significant psychological barrier to cross.

Sandbagging. I think.