Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[skivi]

I scanned the responses to this comment post on yahoo news. I am sad to report that the responses are not encouraging. The usual collection of rants about socialism and totalitarianism being the only goals of the Climate Change Activists, claims that CC is a hoax with the above as the goal, EVs just make things worse, etc.

Here is a typical one:
“Producing an electric car means you now have one more car on the roads, not one car with better economy. If you don't crush your old car what have you accomplished?”
(I did respond but have low expectations for a real dialog)

My favorite:
“Well Rollin Manure, I really dont give a damn about you or your electric damn vehicles”.
(My first name is Rollin. I politely asked him if he was making a point).

Is the yahoo news audience typical? I sure hope not but would not be surprised if it is.

Sigh.

It's usual on yahoo finance a lot of bashers most of the time, but i don't know why.

 

[ggr]

Mod: This is the line in the sand. I just moved another 12 posts to Autopilot disengagement, driving etc. out of main. . No more summon/autopilot in this thread. Nuke from orbit. --ggr

 

[Artful Dodger]

.

Also worth noting that FINRA explicitly shows the SHO exempt short sales (the market maker naked shorts) too. During that period they were only responsible for 236,147 shares of naked short sales, or 0.88% of all short sales.

It's more important to note that FINRA reported short sales represent less than half of the total volume of trades in TSLA. For example, today included just 2,482,246 shares traded (2.48M shares), while total revised volume reported by NASDAQ was 5,946,161 (5.95M shares). That means FINRA reported just 41.75% of today's trades. Lots of room for munky bidnes. Who isn't reporting, and is there a significant reporting difference between ordinary brokers and market makers?

Just in case anybody thinks this is a fluke, I have tracked this FINRA/NASDAQ volume ratio daily since Nov 23, 2018. Over that period, FINRA daily reports on volume have averaged 39.56% of NASDAQ volume, with a std dev of 6.47% (that's over 10 mths and 200 trading days of daily data summarized in this statistic)

TL;dr Daily short sales reports via FINRA reveal less than half of the total market activity in TSLA.

 

[sparcs]

I know plainsite has come up a few times in some of the legal discussion. Beware of the owner who is short Tesla. Looks like he retailiates against people who sign up. Hopefully none of you have personal information tied to that site.

First Linked Post from tesla_truth on Twitter

Second Linked Post from tesla_truth on Twitter

There's a maze of additional information being posted in tesla_truth's twitter feed. Crazy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes, the same method. My final S+X delivery estimate on 30 June 2019 here was 17,533 units compared to 17,722 actual deliveries. However, I have no idea if the accuracy will be as good this time.

Interesting the contrast with InsideEVs S+X numbers, if we add in June numbers for September (which is not out yet):

• InsideEVs July+August+[June]: 975+1,050+1,750+1,225+1,825+2,725=8,605
• Troy: 7,556

I.e., if Q3 September U.S. sales of S+X just match June sales, it's 1,000 units higher than your estimate - and the first two months of Q3 were trending significantly higher in the U.S. in the InsideEVs data, compared to Q2.

We'll know it tomorrow whose estimate was better.

 

[Pezpunk]

Is the yahoo news audience typical? I sure hope not but would not be surprised if it is.
Sigh.

short of something like Fox News or Stormfront, yes Yahoo comments are as about as deep into the cesspool as you can get.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Someone buy Gretta a Model 3... to drive her to school next year with FSD. Best marketing ever.

... and then Arnold actually did it!
Arnold Schwarzenegger Sent Activist Greta Thunberg an Electric Car

 

[SpaceCash]

25 minutes left in the quarter.
I think it's been a really good one

 

[Papafox]

.
It's more important to note that FINRA reported short sales represent less than half of the total volume of trades in TSLA. For example, today included just 2,482,246 shares traded (2.48M shares), while total revised volume reported by NASDAQ was 5,946,161 (5.95M shares). That means FINRA reported just 41.75% of today's trades. Lots of room for munky bidnes. Who isn't reporting, and is there a significant reporting difference between ordinary brokers and market makers?

Just in case anybody thinks this is a fluke, I have tracked this FINRA/NASDAQ volume ratio daily since Nov 23, 2018. Over that period, FINRA daily reports on volume have averaged 39.56% of NASDAQ volume, with a std dev of 6.47% (that's over 10 mths and 200 trading days of daily data summarized in this statistic)

View attachment 461302​

TL;dr Daily short sales reports via FINRA reveal less than half of the total market activity in TSLA.

My understanding is that trading in dark pools and in non-FINRA exchanges are outside of FINRA reporting. That is why we sometimes see substantial artifacts of manipulations on days when the FINRA-reported percent of selling by short-sellers drops severely. In these cases the shorting entities have simply changed the source of their short-shares to non-FINRA exchanges or dark pools.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Obsessive Counting?

I'm amused by how many people here keep track all the ships and deliveries with elaborate formulas to predict a day, week, or month. Long term, it doesn't really matter exactly how many cars Tesla builds this quarter, or even this year. Just a tool to manipulate prices and will turn out to be a moot point in even just a couple years. I'm not even sure I care about a profit except for whatever it takes for the S&P 500 inclusion, for now is all.

More relevant to SP is V10 on FSD - still jaw dropping. News will spread even faster now.

 

[Tslynk67]

I scanned the responses to my comment post on yahoo news. I am sad to report that the responses are not encouraging. The usual collection of rants about socialism and totalitarianism being the only goals of the Climate Change Activists, claims that CC is a hoax with the above as the goal, EVs just make things worse, etc.

Here is a typical one:
“Producing an electric car means you now have one more car on the roads, not one car with better economy. If you don't crush your old car what have you accomplished?”
(I did respond but have low expectations for a real dialog)

My favorite:
“Well Rollin Manure, I really dont give a damn about you or your electric damn vehicles”.
(My first name is Rollin. I politely asked him if he was making a point).

Is the yahoo news audience typical? I sure hope not but would not be surprised if it is.

Sigh.

In my experience, the Yahoo conversaton/comments are a cess-pool of nut-cases that makes Twitter look like a kindergarten.

You have to remember that most of these comments are from paid trolls, oil-industry employees, Russians, etc.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rob Mauer (Tesla Daily Podcast) lays the smack down in this master class take down of yesterday's Q3 deliveries leak:

Examining the Latest Rumors on Deliveries and Inventory (09.30.19) - TechCast Daily

Highly recommended.

Cheers!

TL;dl Rob is sticking with his predicted deliveries range for 2019 Q3 of 100-104K.

 

[Pezpunk]

interesting that the window is so tight. seems like nobody's predicting outside of more than a 5% variance.

 

[CitizenKane]

For anyone wanting to compile delivery figures, 1002 new Tesla's were registered in Sweden in September, of which 716 Model 3 (sixth best selling car in September), 197 Model S and 89 Model X.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The last day of the quarter saw 259 Model 3 deliveries in The Netherlands. The Model 3 total for Q3 is 7544.

SR+ is 40,3% of these (15,5% in Q2)
P is 7,6% of these (5,8% in Q2).

I expect the percentage of 40,3% to be the highest of all EU countries as the tax incentive for business cars and leases is only valid up to a sticker price of €50,000, which is what a SR+ with some options will cost. Every €1 over this amount is taxed like an ICE, which means the difference between an SR+ and an LR is about €5,000 in extra taxes over a lease period of five years.

Also: we are a small country, so most people don’t travel long distances. And we have a high concentration of Superchargers.

Q3 also saw 109 Model X and 106 Model S deliveries (accurate up to Sunday). Remember: sales of those models were heavily pulled forward in Q4 2018 due to a tax cliff.

 

[RobStark]

For anyone wanting to compile delivery figures, 1002 new Tesla's were registered in Sweden in September, of which 716 Model 3 (sixth best selling car in September), 197 Model S and 89 Model X.

Sweden June 2019

Model 3 524
Model S 209
Model X 86

EV Sales: Sweden June 2019

 

[Fact Checking]

Macquarie reiterates $400 price target:

'Macquarie analyst Maynard Um reiterated an Outperform rating and $400 price target on Tesla after the company released its Software Version 10.0 yesterday. Tesla owners gained Smart Summon for those with FSD or Enhanced Autopilot, significant expansion of in-cabin media functionality, ability to browse local restaurants / points of interest via Tesla’s proprietary mapping service, among many other features.'

'The analyst stated "Tesla vehicles with FSD or Enhanced Autopilot enabled will now be able to navigate a parking lot without a driver to a predesignated location. While online reviews of this feature during its testing phase were mixed, we are optimistic that the wider rollout of Smart Summon represents another incremental step for the company as it aims to achieve Level 5 autonomous drive capability by 2020 and expect more significant improvements over time". He went on to say "Tesla is enabling 1st & 3rd party app development for features that have generally never been natively available in a car through a simple OTA update. As these capabilities are enhanced, we see the potential for new innovative features as being near endless and, through OTA updates, provide owners with a new car experience".'​

Level 5 by the end of 2020 is not likely to happen unless Tesla is sitting on some secret (which they might be) - but feature-complete point-to-point FSD which will eventually reach Level 5 quality should certainly happen by the end of 2020.

Other analysts might wait for the deliveries - or issue a preemptive downgrade today?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Also, how certain is everyone the numbers will be released tomorrow? Do we have confirmation, or is it guessing?

 

[uselesslogin]

When did they film this? The guy looks like he's dressed for California fall.

Also, how certain is everyone the numbers will be released tomorrow? Do we have confirmation, or is it guessing?

Tesla stated in their first production and delivery report they would release numbers within 3 days of the end of the quarter. Recently they have been releasing them on the second day. Q1 was an exception and they released them very late on the third day. I'm pretty sure this quarter is not as bad as Q1 so tomorrow seems likely.

 

[Fact Checking]

Also, how certain is everyone the numbers will be released tomorrow? Do we have confirmation, or is it guessing?

That Tesla is going to release the delivery report tomorrow is guesswork mostly, because they are not obligated to release on any given date, and they are not announcing the date nor are they sticking to predictable release dates.

But there's some pattern, albeit unreliable. Here's their past delivery report filing timestamps:

2018/Q1: Filing Date: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue)
2018/Q2: Filing Date: 2018-07-02 09:04:06 (Tue)
2018/Q3: Filing Date: 2018-10-02 08:35:28 (Tue)
2018/Q4: Filing Date: 2019-01-02 08:38:32 (Wed)
2019/Q1: Filing Date: 2019-04-03 20:22:00 (Wed)
2019/Q2: Filing Date: 2019-07-02 16:22:57 (Tue)

Note how in the past 5 quarters they've been filing on the 2nd day of the next quarter, except in Q1'2019 which had really bad numbers and where they were probably waiting for Model 3 deliveries to hit 50,000.

Plus the rest of the automotive industry is reporting deliveries tomorrow (2nd of October) as well.

My guess: tomorrow 8am-ish is the most likely release date if they have 100k deliveries in the bag, or if they missed it by a larger margin (say 96k deliveries), but if they don't release by 6pm tomorrow, then they are so close to 100,000 that they think they can cross the threshold by waiting one more day. I.e. as time passes 100k deliveries become more and more likely.

Last year the Q3 delivery report was released at 8:38 Eastern Time, before trading.