Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

My point was that oil is still and will continue to be used for other purposes besides transportation. And for some who still want to go to tractor pulls or other things, that can still happen as long as the net effect is positive.

How much fun is a tractor pull when the gas and diesel tractors don't stand a chance against the electric ones?

Even Jay Leno gets it. Keep the gas car for the weekends if some people still have that nostalgia for stank, vibration and noise for some reason.

I guess that's possible that some people will want that. Mostly a few old men that can't let go and that don't care about others. But judging by the low number of freaks still shooting photographic film, I expect that number to be really low.

 

[Zaxxon]

From the press release brigade, Volvo's out with [very few] details on the upcoming XC40 BEV.

Fully electric Volvo XC40 SUV heralds new electric future and does more with less

It'll have a frunk, and no traditional grille. More info in 2 weeks. I mention this particular vehicle here because Volvo is one of the few other manufacturers who's committed to scooting over to a fully-electric fleet in the relatively (for non-Tesla manufacturers) near future. This is their first full BEV.

 

[mongo]

OT

That can't be right!

Predictors and primates have two eyes capture overlapping images so that they have depth vision.

During autopilot day it was very clear from the presentation that Tesla uses multi overlapping camera and images of the same camera from different times to create a 3d model of the surrounding.

The flattening is counter productive.

Were you guys forgetful or didn't pay attention in the first place?

The autonomy day demo mentioned stereo techniques with the San Fransisco example. However Karpathy also said it was not needed just before that section, referring to monocular, and animals with eyes toward the sides of their heads (rabbit). He also references monocular depth perception after the video example.

Multiple articles exist regarding Slam being done using a single camera.

This primate has a highly dominate eye, negligible static stereo depth perception, yet can detect depth in moving scenes just fine. Most peopele can determine depth in (non-tricky) photos, TV, or movies. None of those provide real depth information.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

MarketWatch - 2 hours ago: This could be the next gold mine for Tesla and other electric vehicles

Vitaliy Katsenelson: I imagine the 110,000 U.S. gas stations that keep ICE cars humming along today will look like a rounding error next to the millions of electric “filling stations” that one day will be located in home garages and public parking lots.

I hear rooftop solar refineries shows potential too.

 

[StealthP3D]

They're talking about US S/X/3 unit volume:
54,700 - Q3 2019
69,975 - Q3 2018

Down 22%. Model 3 was only down 14%, which as you say we expected since last year they focused on burning through as much US backlog as possible. I'm encouraged by the ~180k/year US run rate the Model 3 seems to be settling into, especially with a near-50k ASP

I'll repeat - It's completely meaningless to consider one market (the U.S.) in isolation because Tesla has been production constrained with the Model 3 since it's inception.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This opposite price action relative to previous delivery/earnings announcements is a good sign IMO.

Usually we ratchet up for weeks then plummet.

 

[StealthP3D]

Barron's - hour ago: Tesla Is About to Report Quarterly Deliveries. 100,000 Is ‘Achievable,’ Analyst Says

You can read it here without a Barrons subscription:

Tesla Is About to Report Quarterly Deliveries. 100,000 Is ‘Achievable,’ Analyst Says - Non Perele

 

[KSilver2000]

This opposite price action relative to previous delivery/earnings announcements is a good sign IMO.

Usually we ratchet up for weeks then plummet.

From looking at the charts of the final week in the past few months, I’m failing to see how this week is noticeably different.

I sure hope Tesla delivers clearly over 100,000. Otherwise, with the negative macro, this stock may drop big down to 210-220 IMO.

 

[abasile]

There is an objection to ‘fairytales of eternal economic growth”. That’s a truism - you can’t take infinitely from finite resources. She’s steering us towards a circular economy, an essential move.

In general, it does bother me when activists imply that continuous economic growth is evil, as if we'd be better off with the brutish existence of our ancestors before modern technology. While Earth's resources are finite, our Solar System possesses virtually limitless supplies of key elements. Even on Earth alone, we're only tapping a very small fraction of the energy available from our gigantic nuclear fusion reactor (the Sun), and as you say, moving to a more circular economy has much potential.

Greta is young and malleable, so I hope and expect that she will appreciate her experience with the Model 3 rather than seeing all cars as evil. I hope that she sees the good that companies like Tesla and SpaceX can bring to humanity without sacrificing economic growth. And not just Greta, all of the young people who follow her as well. Even if they aren't in a position to buy an EV or install solar, they can start by buying a couple of shares of TSLA and/or shares in renewable energy companies.

 

[StealthP3D]

In general, it does bother me when activists imply that continuous economic growth is evil, as if we'd be better off with the brutish existence of our ancestors before modern technology.

She didn't say that.

Greta was putting down the focus on business as usual, that is economic growth at all costs, without regard to whether we are making our only home literally unfit for human habitation. It's foolhardy to put economic growth above quality of life.

She never said all economic growth was evil, only that which harmed us.

Get with the program! I mean she's not that hard to understand, she's only 16 years old!

 

[Swampgator]

She didn't say that.

Greta was putting down the focus on business as usual, that is economic growth at all costs, without regard to whether we are making our only home literally unfit for human habitation. It's foolhardy to put economic growth above quality of life.

She never said all economic growth was evil, only that which harmed us.

Get with the program! I mean she's not that hard to understand, she's only 16 years old!

The fact that anyone is listening to a ranting 16 year old is silly. Hey, are we still talking about TSLA?

 

[204EV]

Autoblog is only now reporting on the car Carrier fire that was hauling tesla in Nevada last week.. seams like they were saving it to try to use at a more impactful time.. this FUD use is gross.

Ed: i don't put links to FUD they don't deserve it.

 

[Lessmog]

The fact that anyone is listening to a ranting 16 year old is silly. Hey, are we still talking about TSLA?

Have you read the Secret Master Plan? 1 or 2? Understand it?

 

[StealthP3D]

The fact that anyone is listening to a ranting 16 year old is silly. Hey, are we still talking about TSLA?

The fact that some people aren't listening to this particular 16-year-old is even sillier. It's the definition of insanity.

 

[davecolene0606]

From the press release brigade, Volvo's out with [very few] details on the upcoming XC40 BEV.

Fully electric Volvo XC40 SUV heralds new electric future and does more with less

It'll have a frunk, and no traditional grille. More info in 2 weeks. I mention this particular vehicle here because Volvo is one of the few other manufacturers who's committed to scooting over to a fully-electric fleet in the relatively (for non-Tesla manufacturers) near future. This is their first full BEV.

It all about...

SHOW ME THE BATTERY FACTORY!

Fire Away!

 

[StealthP3D]

Autoblog is only now reporting on the car Carrier fire that was hauling tesla in Nevada last week.. seams like they were saving it to try to use at a more impactful time.. this FUD use is gross.

Ed: i don't put links to FUD they don't deserve it.

Is that the one where overheating truck brakes caused the fire?

Happens all the time.

 

[EVNow]

From looking at the charts of the final week in the past few months, I’m failing to see how this week is noticeably different.

I sure hope Tesla delivers clearly over 100,000. Otherwise, with the negative macro, this stock may drop big down to 210-220 IMO.

Factset consensus is 99k. I think if they deliver between 99k and 102k, I'm not sure what will happen. But if less than 99k, I'd expect a drop. Over 102k - I expect the SP to go up some.

 

[davecolene0606]

How much fun is a tractor pull when the gas and diesel tractors don't stand a chance against the electric ones?



I guess that's possible that some people will want that. Mostly a few old men that can't let go and that don't care about others. But judging by the low number of freaks still shooting photographic film, I expect that number to be really low.

Hey man, can’t a guy have a hobby?

Fire Away!

 

[FreqFlyer]

Autoblog is only now reporting on the car Carrier fire that was hauling tesla in Nevada last week.. seams like they were saving it to try to use at a more impactful time.. this FUD use is gross.

Ed: i don't put links to FUD they don't deserve it.

Weird timing on an old story.

 

[KSilver2000]

Here's the GF3 glass supplier (Saint-Gobain Sekurit (Shanghai) Co) interview:

Production milestone for Tesla in Lingang

Saint-Gobain Sekurit (Shanghai) Co plays a supporting role for Tesla. It has built a glass factory in Lingang to produce front and rear windshields and glass roofs for the Model 3. “Mass production is anticipated from October 14, together with the output of Model 3 vehicles,” said Ma Jun, head of the company’s Lingang factory.

“Our annual output is expected to reach 120 million yuan (US$17 million), and at the next stage we may increase our investment and produce for the Model Y,” Ma added.
​

The 3000 sets of glass information is from this Chinese news article:

特斯拉上海工厂玻璃供应商：玻璃厂正紧张调试，10月中量产_10%公司_澎湃新闻-The Paper

'“We will be mass production on October 14th, the factory is under intense commissioning, and the first glass will be produced on October 10.” Ma Jun, general manager of Saint-Gobain Safety Glass China Service Center, said that the company’s first phase is currently The product will be used in Tesla's Model 3 model and may be available for Model Y in the future.'

...

'According to reports, the company has provided Tesla with 20 sets of glass products for trial production of the products in August this year. A total of 3,000 sets will be delivered this year.'

'Shao Zhiyuan, project manager of Saint-Gobain Safety Glass, responsible for the Tesla project, told the journalist that according to Tesla’s previous request, the company’s monthly output can reach 15,000 sets. “Our capacity design is based entirely on Tesla requests to come."'
​

A new glass factory will not ramp up instantly either - just like a new car factory. Also note the capacity limit: 180,000 units per year - which is 3,500/week, not 3,000/week. So about +15% more room to grow beyond initial GF3 guidance.

Note that the October 14 start of production news was effectively confirmed by Tesla China by yesterday's announcement to stop taking new SR+ orders after October 14.

While I think Tesla might ship entire battery packs from GF1 to GF3 in Q4 and Q1, I don't think it's overly practical to ship thousands of fragile and dangerous to handle sets of glass over the ocean.



See above, the glass supplier specified 3,000 sets of glass in Q4, so I think they'll start the ramp slowly. I don't think 500/week across Q4 is realistic - they'll start in the middle of October, losing two weeks from the quarter already.

They might be able to reach something like a 500 units burst week by the end of Q4. The real scaling will be in Q1 I believe.

I think even Musk has been slowly downplaying China production numbers.

He began this year projecting 3,000/week production in China by EOY. Then back in July on the q2 CC, he said at least 1,000/week, up to 2,000/week, rate by EOY. Since then, I don’t think he has publicly stated any weekly production rates from China for this year. And many analysts don’t expect ~3,000/week until mid 2020, which would be about right given Elon time.