Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody here still holding hope that this will not be the first quarter on quarter and quarter over quarter revenue decline for Tesla since 2012?

Quarter on quarter - there is a fair chance of flat/slight increase of revenue. YOY, there will be decline.

- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

They may keep the guidance - just for the sake of it - though they'd obviously be aiming to get to the low end, rather than the middle.

 

[KSilver2000]

Rephrase: anybody not think they will keep guidance of 360-400k?

If so, how? They hit 360k with only the most trivial increase in Fremont and ~5k in China.

Tesla is only ~105,000 deliveries away from hitting 360,000 for the year. With Q4 usually being a stronger quarter for car sales, there should be almost no doubt that Tesla hits that number. If they see that it’s going to be close with a few weeks left, you can bet that they will give relatively significant discounts and/or incentives to comfortably get past that mark.

I’m also on the boat that Tesla will just reiterate 360-400 guidance on the Q3.

Although, I wish they would have been closer to the middle of the final year guidance range ~380,000 with a stronger Q3 delivery number.
Tesla won’t get any pats on the back from the market for just being over 360k.

 

[EVNow]

Rephrase: anybody not think they will keep guidance of 360-400k?

If so, how? They hit 360k with only the most trivial increase in Fremont and ~5k in China.

Not even that - just draw down the 15k Model 3s and 9.7k S/X. In last 2 years, Tesla drew down the inventory significantly in Q4.

 

[SpaceCash]

I wonder where all the buyers went?

I bought today in premarket and those shares are up 10s of cents now

 

[TradingInvest]

As far as Q3 2019 report:

- Anybody here still holding hope that this will not be the first quarter on quarter and quarter over quarter revenue decline for Tesla since 2012?
- Anybody still think they will keep guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries for 2019?

I think Q3 revenue will be lower YOY, but it doesn't mean growth is over. It's because last year's Q3 was exceptionally good (accumulated LR AWD and P3D demand, high ASP). If you look at full year data, revenue will at least grow 45%.

To me it's much more important to look at what's happening instead of just looking at data. I remember a few years ago Apple had a weak quarter, revenue missed guidance by 5%, the stock dropped 3% on that day. The real cause was that many people were waiting for the newer iPhone. The stock only dropped for one day, then it went up several fold in the next few years. I'm not saying the same thing will happen to Tesla. Just to show it's important to understand what's happening.

I think 2019 revenue will be 45~60% above 2018, in the next few years revenue will at least grow 50~60% each year. I can explain the details if you need. We shouldn't look at one quarter's data then conclude growth is over. I know the TSLAQ group is preparing to say growth is over.

 

[StealthP3D]

just don't expect those announcements to have any short term impact on the share price. The market is in a "show me" mode for TSLA so they will want to see that Tesla is able ramp and deliver those products. Autonomy Investor Day and Model Y reveal did basically nothing for the share price.

The market has been in a "show me" mode with regard to Tesla. That will be true until suddenly it isn't true. We don't know what will be the catalyst but as Tesla matures as a company there will be a point where everything changes and I don't think it will necessarily take GAAP earning to get there as long as Tesla is generating enough free cash flow to continue to expand production.

It's important that GF3 ramps up better than the Fremont Model 3 ramp. Just getting GF3 built isn't going to cut it for the share price.

I'm pretty sure the GF3 will ramp quicker and more smoothly than the original Model 3 ramp. Remember, this was Tesla's first foray into mass production and they rushed into it by moving the Model 3 launch up by a full year (or was it a little more?). They over-automated and had to redesign the lines. They were forced to do this or they would have failed. You can bet they know a lot more now and the G3 lines will be carbon copies of the lines at Freemont probably with some common sense adjustments and modifications. They have already made around half a million Model 3's so they are intimately familiar with how it goes together and what the potential pitfalls are. I'm confident the lines at G3 will be cranking out Model 3's much sooner than they were in Freemont and it's a good bet this will be the catalyst that causes speculation to take TSLA shares to the next level. Or it might be the start of in-house battery production with the next-gen battery.

I guess my point is, that past results don't guarantee the same results every time. What a boring world that would be. Things change and thus peoples perceptions change.

 

[StealthP3D]

Quarter on quarter - there is a fair chance of flat/slight increase of revenue. YOY, there will be decline.


They may keep the guidance - just for the sake of it - though they'd obviously be aiming to get to the low end, rather than the middle.

That's why, with only 1 quarter to go, they should give new guidance. Maybe stick to the low end of 360,000 but drop the high end to 365,000 (or whatever they figure they might really be able to produce). That way if they hit 364,000, the media can't say they barely hit the low end of their guidance. Yes, the admission that 400,000 was not in the cards might make the stock take a hit in the interim but it would be a small hit because, given the production figures of the first three quarters, no one is expecting them to come in at the high end.

I take all that back if they think G3 can pump out more than a couple-three thousand cars before the new year.

 

[Buckminster]

Jim Bridenstine on Twitter
I haven't watched yet. Elon answering SpaceX q's.

 

[StealthP3D]

I bought today in premarket and those shares are up 10s of cents now

Are you going to buy a six-pack and celebrate?

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - this evening: GM urges UAW to engage in 'around-the-clock' bargaining to reach a deal, potentially end strike

 

[Buckminster]

Less economically viable than selling BEVs above Tesla's price range.

Especially so for a new entrant.

Less moving the needle for reducing C02 into the atmosphere.

If Porsche are struggling to beat Tesla, surely Dyson will find it difficult at high price range - hardly a premium brand.
New entrants arguably have a better chance - no shareholders / no osbourning / better culture leads to funky ideas.
Smaller battery is better for environment in several ways:

1. Small or large - they both remove an ICE (although eventually a robo taxis will replace several)
2. Less cobalt etc.
3. Less energy to manufacture battery and car
4. More economic = less kWh to recharge = less CO2 from power stations

 

[brian45011]

For the world we are in, or the world we have to get to in 10 years?

Either or both--show your calculations

 

[RobStark]

If Porsche are struggling to beat Tesla, surely Dyson will find it difficult at high price range - hardly a premium brand.
New entrants arguably have a better chance - no shareholders / no osbourning / better culture leads to funky ideas.
Smaller battery is better for environment in several ways:

1. Small or large - they both remove an ICE (although eventually a robo taxis will replace several)
2. Less cobalt etc.
3. Less energy to manufacture battery and car
4. More economic = less kWh to recharge = less CO2 from power stations

Porsche isn't struggling. The name of the game is sales. Demand seems quite robust for Porsche even if range and performance is less for Taycan. Evidently they are increasing capacity.

A brand that can sell $400 hair dryers and $600 vacuums is a premium brand.

Not having ICE baggage is an advantage, no argument.

Displacing big heavy ICEv does more to displace C02 than a super mini ICE.

A new company like Dyson can aspire to produce 100k/year premium crossovers, it would be ludicrous to expect them to produce 10M/year super minis. 100k premium EV crossovers is a much bigger net gain for the environment than selling 100k EV superminis.

Because we don't live in a world were we can convince many Range Rover and S Class owners to drive supermini EVs. We may convince them to drive Model X and Taycans instead. We may convince 3 Series,A4, and C Class owners to drive Model 3 or Polestar 2 instead.

We must interact with the world as it is not as we wish it to be.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can't judge the ER at all, other than it being better than Q2 for profit/loss, but may be not as good for FCF. Revenues should be up as the MS/X mix was higher and seems more M3LR %age than Q2. Add to that expected reduction in COGS and no price-cuts that I recall, even some raises in some territories...

For guidance I think it's important to think back on the Q3 and consider that Elon was pushing for 100k deliveries, which implies to me that the cars were already produced, but just needed to get into the customers hands. This further implies a bit more "inventory" going into Q4, so in principle, with the same production and better deliveries, that's coming to 103k already, plus and GF3 output there might be.

However, I also get the impression that demand is even stronger in Europe than in NA, so might be a better strategy this quarter to get more cars on boats, and much earlier in the quarter too, especially to NL, of course and I'm sure NO has some backlog too. A good opportunity to further unwind that wave.

And while I'm here, Nasdaq Futures up 0.5-6%, bodes for a good day and might be difficult for the MManipulators to walk the SP down to $240 - although it just need a tweet from OI or one of his cronies, to crash the market at any chosen moment.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

All jokes and trivial stuff about vacuum cleaners have ended up in the dustbin.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here we go again... The end of the oil age can't come soon enough...

This could dampen the markets today, although reading the article it does't sound particularly serious.

Explosion sets ablaze Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Iranian state media says

An explosion damaged an Iranian oil tanker traveling through the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia on Friday, Iranian media reported. There was no immediate word from Saudi Arabia on the reported blast.

State television said the explosion damaged two storerooms aboard the unnamed oil tanker and caused an oil leak into the Red Sea. It did not elaborate.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I’ve only been following the SP closely for about a year, so a relative newb especially to the way the shorting and market manipulation comes into play with this particular stock.

I’m not going after short-term gains the way some traders might as I doubt I’d be very good at it. In regards to your question though, FWIW, I do expect the stock to drop after this ER (as usual), but I’m really optimistic about what things look like with the pickup reveal, an early Y ramp, Shanghai, and the battery supply chain falling into place leading into Battery Investor Day, which will give us some specific insights into how exactly Tesla will accomplish what we can already surmise they’re trying to do. Like many others I see a freight train that can be slowed but can’t be stopped. I’m no expert like many on this forum, but it’s hard for me to envision sub-350 in Spring 2020 barring economic crisis. That all being said, I know sentiments have been similar before, and here we are.

Indeed they have, as the model 3 ramped I thought we would never see sub 300 again.

But things are different now. Tesla has a history of sustained production, evidence of ongoing demand for the 3 after pent up demand has been spent and solid free cashflows. Significantly derisking the company.

We've also seen many competitors try and fail to compete with Tesla.

Then there is the second factory about to come online, the self driving hardware being taken in house, a buff to battery production knowledge and a great lineup of future products. As you said, the growth story is strong.

To top it off, the corporate governance is arguably much stronger with the new chairperson and Elon seems to have calmed down on Twitter (personally I prefer unleashed Elon, but I'm sure many investors don't).

Arguably Tesla was overvalued before the ramp of the 3, however the combination of proven performance, weak competition, fantastic growth prospects and strong governance has to be reflected in the share price in the not too distant future.

 

[hobbes]

Smart Summon seems to be improving (more confident in latest update), this might lead to some good PR:
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/dg7n1d/201932121_smart_summon_improvements/

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pre-Market Trading
$248.00 (05:03:14 AM)

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Smart Summon seems to be improving (more confident in latest update), this might lead to some good PR:
2019.32.12.1 Smart Summon Improvements : teslamotors

Oh, you are SO funny. I literally spit my coffee out when I read it. Good one!