woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Ugh, now I’m going to waste 10 minutes of my life doing this. THANKS!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Ugh, now I’m going to waste 10 minutes of my life doing this. THANKS!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Well, yesterday the low volume correction was supported by technical factors and lack of 'guidance' from weekly options, which are detached somewhat from the underlying due to Q3 uncertainty. Today's low volume upwards movements look a bit more weird, especially as around 12:30 ET there was quite a bit of buying pressure.
copyhacker
Member
(OT) None of the scenarios in that song are examples of irony. Ironic, huh?
I go back and forth - sometimes agreeing with you and sometimes with the sentiment offered by @abasile - depending on my mood. However, when I'm feeling particularly censorious of other folks who I perceive as ignorant on this or other issues, it always helps take the edge off to remind myself that in many cases those people are fighting an uphill battle against disinformation that is pushed on them aggressively by powerful people and interests. If I'm honest with myself I can point to times when, despite the freely available information at my fingertips, I've been hoodwinked by clever propaganda. Plus, at the end of the day, the real enemies aren't the one's who are fooled, they're the one's doing the fooling.
I'm not sure what the stock will do after Wednesday. I plan to hold my shares for 15+ years. I don't play this game with the shorts. I hope they will burn in the long run. If they push hard, I might take advantage to add more. In my view this stock is quite undervalued.
TSLA doesn't behave like normal stocks after earnings. For a normal stock, when most of the participants think it will go lower, it will surprise everyone.
There are mainly two types of TSLA longs. One type are fully loaded or highly leveraged, they would love to see the stock go higher, but they don't have money to push it higher. Many of them are forced to sell once the stock starts to drop. I view the leveraged longs as helpers to the shorts. The other type of TSLA longs are relatively diversified. They either refrain from more purchase, or they will buy more if the stock goes much lower. They are not actively pushing the stock higher. So there is not much force that is willing AND capable to push it higher. Those who didn't buy TSLA in the past 10 years is unlikely to suddenly change their mind and start buying big size.
There are mainly two types of TSLA shorts. One type are very aggressive, they think it's a sure thing TSLA will reach zero, it's the best short target and it's safe. These shorts will help the longs when stock rallies. Another type of TSLA shorts only have a portion of their accounts shorting TSLA, in many cases using Puts. They really want to push the stock lower and they have money to do so.
In the past 15 months these active short traders gained strength, aggressive longs lost a lot. This reinforced the cycle. After every event, shorts push down and make money on short term Puts. Longs lose money on short term Calls. I can count more than 10 negative cycles in the past 15 months.
This situation could change if Tesla has a dramatic surprise: huge earnings, major strategic investors who are willing to buy a lot of shares, actually winning FSD, verifiable high profit in coming quarters, etc.
This is how I deal with the situation: make sure my investment size is large enough so I won't regret when the stock hits $4k or 8k a share. Also make sure I have additional resource so I could continue to generate cash to add more shares down the road.
I think shorts will try to push it lower regardless of the quarterly results. There is not much counter force. I give this scenario 60% chance. Elon might say something during QA to reverse it. It seems to me whatever he says the shorts will ignore.
OT: An example of situational irony would be writing a song about irony only to discover that all of your examples of irony aren't actually irony.
(Bad luck / bad decisions are not "irony". Situational irony implies some intended / expected result of an informed decision that ends up inverted. It's not a "black fly in your Chardonnay" - unless you're the inventor of a Chardonnay fly-repellent)
This, and specifically this(rumor disclaimer acknowledged):
@KarenRei
Is serving me as a confirmation bias that says to wait for battery day before jumping to conclusions. Why would they pay and install something if not intending to use it soon?
Million miles something something?
Didn't Elon say the receiver can be pizza box sized? Then it can probably be smuggled, so you don't have to connect it to the "ground station".
Seems like it might be outlawed in this form factor without a mandatory modification that Elon will have to agree to. A modification that allows govt to do what they do with the rest of the internet.
The same applies to Russia, where ISPs are currently obligated to attach a FSB provided HW to their boxes, which supposedly listens to the traffic. In reality, only can do this with unencrypted traffic and the main purpose is to make ISPs pay for the HW and enrich the makers of HW.
Many dictators will not like the idea of not being able to control the internet traffic and push their narratives, so there will definitely be obstacles raised in the form of laws/regulations in those countries.
I am unsure if this is news to everyone, but Tesla is basically doubling its number of European Service Centers, which will significantly increase Tesla's addressable market in Europe:
Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter
Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter
Well doesn’t the fact that a US model 3 order is now 6-8weeks out and there is no inventory say that we are out of near term supply?
Name one other product that has been in production for more than a year, is actually increasing in production and yet has a LONGER wait time than it did the previous year.
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Damn, that's ironic, I was just about to post the same thing! They are mostly examples of bad luck. TMCer's think alike!
Continental is closing automotive plants in Germany, I guess I found a solution for GF4
Continental auto supplier plans decade of layoffs, plant closures
Continental auto supplier plans decade of layoffs, plant closures
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Have you sold off your position in anticipation of a fire sale after earnings?
Interesting too that shares available to borrow went up 200000 at the same time. Hmmm
That's my plan. I'm gambling a sizable chunk of savings that would just change my plans by a few years even if TSLA goes to zero, but large enough that if/when the stock really goes to where I expect it will be pretty transformational to my life.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
You are not seriously trying to suggest that SpaceX will have no control over the Starlink network are you? That obtaining a receiver will by its mere possession gain access to the Starlink network?
Where this started was about China's ability to control network access and how Starlink could possibly be an avenue to bypass the great firewall of China. In the abstract, sure, a satellite connection would avoid that. But this is not new to Starlink. The reality is that SpaceX would have to be complicit and it is unlikely that they would take on that burden. China would think nothing of applying pressure -- they could simply take possession of GF3 (sovereignty, its a real thing) although I don't think they would start there anymore than I think Elon Musk would attempt to undermine the authority of a government that has been very friendly to him.
Bottom line: you will only get to talk on the Starlink network if approved by Starlink/SpaceX and it is quite unlikely that SpaceX would violate China's laws regarding telecommunications. Musk has different goals, like providing coverage in underserved areas -- not providing a guerilla communications network.
If they focused on EV tires, they would be in a growing segment. The higher weight and faster acceleration results in much higher tire consumption than before. Plus premium prices for range extending low resistance rolling tires like michelin primacy mxm4
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So you go to the gym and walking to your car is too much exercise?
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
This made me laugh. I'll agree with you on the "ignorance is a lifestyle choice" comment. You could almost call it "The American Way" so to speak. However, people vote a certain way based on what is important to them. What is important to one is trivial to another. The true "American Way" is voting on single issues rather than a "global" perspective of what a candidate offers. There is never a perfect candidate and people get blinded by singular issues. It's unfortunate, but a fact. A product of a two party monopoly in my opinion. This topic has absolutely no business being here in this forum but I felt the need to respond.
Dan
Continetnal is much more than tires, tires are only one part of their business
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