Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

How? Everyone will have the same opinions as before, and those with economic interests in the issue will continue to pursue them.

Well, there are scientists and there are courts. If more reasonable people rely on these sources to establish what is believable and what is factual, then the majority can shape the policy and the diehards can shove their opinions up their a$$.

 

[wipster]

How? I just own far far more TSLA than prudent as owning a single stock is already risky, and owning one as a large portion of your portfolio is generally crazy. I just think it's a good gamble with small downside but huge possible upside.

No, that's not what I meant. The quote you included in your post with the strategy in it said it was from me, yet I never wrote that. WTF happened?

 

[humbaba]

No, that's not what I meant. The quote you included in your post with the strategy in it said it was from me, yet I never wrote that. WTF happened?

Apparently he had multiple quotes and careless editing occurred. The original was:

This is how I deal with the situation: make sure my investment size is large enough so I won't regret when the stock hits $4k or 8k a share. Also make sure I have additional resource so I could continue to generate cash to add more shares down the road.

Probably had a top quote from you, another from @TradingInvest, and deleted the intermediate text. May not have even noticed it was different quotes. Accidents happen in the best of families.

 

[wipster]

Apparently he had multiple quotes and careless editing occurred. The original was:


Probably had a top quote from you, another from @TradingInvest, and deleted the intermediate text. May not have even noticed it was different quotes. Accidents happen in the best of families.

Thanks mate, that's probably what occurred, just took me a bit by surprise. I'm sure I've done something similar in the past. Good thing I agree with the strategy!

 

[wipster]

I always extend the vent hose on axle housings and gear cases up above any expected waterline on my off road vehicles.

I use bridges... sometimes ferries if it's a long haul.

 

[Thekiwi]

Phil Lebeau on cnbc just now previewing tomorrows earnings, brief comment on tesla which may give some idea of what coverage may be like.

“It’s all about whats going to be happening with the company’s gigafactory, its latest plant in china. Yeah they are expected to lose 42 cents per share, but its less about the focus on how much they lose in the quarter, more about that china plant as they get it up and running. Shares have had a nice move here over the last couple of months.”

 

[Carl Raymond]

Ignorance of what? A car manufacturer? You have unreasonable expectations if you expect everyone to switch to the very limited amount of EV’s available on the market today. These are all well educated people who have as much concern for the environment as most. Many are interested in eventually switching to an EV if someone ever builds one that suits their needs. So far no one does. We on the other hand need a car so we have lots of choices.

If you want to stop the movement to EV’s start ramming cars that they can’t use or afford down their throat. I’m an EV nut but but I’ll be there beside them telling you to stick it and your EV movement up your ass.

Just sayin.

Ignorance is failure to be aware that EVs exist. I'm not suggesting they are ignorant if not driving one. (yet)

 

[kengchang]

Some people seem to be overlooking the US Dollar Q2 vs Q3 foreign exchange rates strengthening, and how it will affect earnings, so I made this image.

I think stronger USD is the opposite of what you are claiming. The same GBP is converting back to less USD if USD strengthen.

 

[Thekiwi]

Some people seem to be overlooking the US Dollar Q2 vs Q3 foreign exchange rates strengthening, and how it will affect earnings, so I made this image.

Isn’t this analysis backwards? If US dollar has strengthened, it means Tesla receives LESS revenue in USD dollars from international sales.

 

[Ulmo]

a young person who's only going to be living somewhere for a year or two is NOT going to bug the management any more than they have to. that's a fact -- i've spoken with a bunch of would-be Tesla buyers, who balk because of no charging option at their apartment. Telling them they should bug someone about a charger for a car they don't yet own is dumb. it's simply not going to happen.

without Tesla actively pushing for penetration into apartment/condos, it simply will not happen. and that's a huge shame, since that demographic (young, urban/suburban people) is prime Model 3 territory. They already want the car. But it's not THEIR job to change the existing housing landscape to make it a viable choice for themselves.

That's why the pretty successful ones buy homes they can plug cars into.

However, I've said years ago Tesla should actively promote workplace solar + charging pedestals with utility backup for cloudy days, as a product benefit for anyone ordering a Model 3. The Model 3 buyer pays the permit costs for the parking lot charging solar setup, Tesla engineers it, and when the Model 3 buyer puts in the Model 3 order, the permit is pulled, and then when the permit is approved, the car order turns into a bill for payment, and when the bill is paid, the car gets delivered and the electricians go to work on the work charging.

The new car owner can sell the car if they get fired/quit/promoted/transferred after that. But likely they can keep the car if they choose a location with charging rights. Any 3 bedroom house with a traditionally attached garage has a plug they can use (called "dryer", but whatever).

My point is that Tesla could do more, and my point is also that there is still a large market of Model 3 buyers who have facilities (whether at work (solar) or home). Really best of both worlds for Tesla short-term bottom-liners: future demand levers available, but not necessary now. I'd prefer Tesla pull those levers now for the efficiency of the marketplace and market participant happiness for the long term which would help all EV's including Tesla, but they think they don't have to.

Karen asks:

What exactly is Tesla supposed to do that the tenant themselves couldn't?

Tesla can do quite a lot. Whether they decide to is another matter. I think they should, and I think they don't necessarily have to, but that it would be better for them if they did. Tesla already owns a working solar panel factory in USA, so supply is not an issue. Time to cash in for better outcome. They could write notes for the work canopies (as funding), and install batteries with management software that provides grid services during the day taking excess solar out of the grid to put into the local Model 3 + batteries (likely multiple EV's providing energy sinks at that point, effectively turning those EVs into stationary grid services batteries during work hours, which is when a lot of stationary electric storage is needed anyway; it wouldn't solve evening, except the stationary batteries could sell out then too).

 

[Ulmo]

Not after 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting
View attachment 468813

Good history lesson. It closed at $319.50, +7.67% for that week (since open). Today it closed at $255.58, almost 15% lower than its open that week of $300.50 (20.006% lower than its close that week). Even then, going up was ... unusual. But we don't know what gets announced tomorrow!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

There are a lot of people with parking spaces and garages with a BMW, Audi or Mercedes in that Tesla can sell (vastly superior) cars to, before they are restricted by the difficulty of selling them to people without assigned parking spaces. By the time they get there, I suspect the availability of charging options will be way better.
Frankly this is more Nissan or Renaults problem (with their cheaper EVs) than it is Teslas.

 

[KSilver2000]

That's why the pretty successful ones buy homes they can plug cars into.

However, I've said years ago Tesla should actively promote workplace solar + charging pedestals with utility backup for cloudy days, as a product benefit for anyone ordering a Model 3. The Model 3 buyer pays the permit costs for the parking lot charging solar setup, Tesla engineers it, and when the Model 3 buyer puts in the Model 3 order, the permit is pulled, and then when the permit is approved, the car order turns into a bill for payment, and when the bill is paid, the car gets delivered and the electricians go to work on the work charging.

Who pays for the trenching and install? Permitting may cost only a few hundred dollars, but the cost for trenching and installation on an open surface lot with a pedestal commercial charger is significant. Not just a few thousand dollars.

Any 3 bedroom house with a traditionally attached garage has a plug they can use (called "dryer", but whatever).

Relatively newer homes don’t have 240 for the dryer going into the garage. They’re located inside nowadays.

Tesla already owns a working solar panel factory in USA, so supply is not an issue.

I don’t know about that. Since Tesla has gone cheaper with rentals and package PV installs, they’ve been using Hanhwa Q panels, and not their/Panasonic panels.

I do agree with you, though, that Tesla needs to be more active in pushing out easier charging to make the transition smoother.

 

[Rarity]

Musk's tweet this morning was from his home, where he has a Starlink user terminal, according to Gwynne Shotwell, President of SpaceX.

SpaceX plans to start offering Starlink broadband services in 2020 - SpaceNews.com

 

[Todd Burch]

Old Berty is a senile old man. Look everyone, I’m a bot! Entertaining as f...

 

[JusRelax]

Actually, for the past few hours TSLA has moved almost precisely against the NASDAQ Composite index (which was dropping slightly), instead of following it - which is weird price action.

I apologize.... I'm currently suffering from some major food poisoning, which I believe caused me to be more pessimistic than normal. Sorry guys!

 

[TradingInvest]

I apologize.... I'm currently suffering from some major food poisoning, which I believe caused me to be more pessimistic than normal. Sorry guys!

Your name is JusRelax, so, just relax.

 

[Ulmo]

Who pays for the trenching and install? Permitting may cost only a few hundred dollars, but the cost for trenching and installation on an open surface lot with a pedestal commercial charger is significant. Not just a few thousand dollars.

It doesn't have to be that expensive. The first canopies can go near utility lines. It's not necessary to push the trenching fast; the canopies only need good footings at first. Utility connection can take its time and go cheap. No rush. I've dug trenches as a job; it's easy fun work, and not expensive at all. I definitely don't see a problem here.

Relatively newer homes don’t have 240 for the dryer going into the garage. They’re located inside nowadays.

Among the homes where you can use an appropriate extension cord from the laundry room and the garage outlets, there's enough.

Tesla already owns a working solar panel factory in USA, so supply is not an issue.

I don’t know about that. Since Tesla has gone cheaper with rentals and package PV installs, they’ve been using Hanhwa Q panels, and not their/Panasonic panels.

Exactly. There's multiple options for supply. Supply is not a problem at all, even less so that they use panels that they don't even make! (Are you aware your example counteracted your point? The more expensive factory panels are a hedge, and the marketplace provides.)

I do agree with you, though, that Tesla needs to be more active in pushing out easier charging to make the transition smoother.

Yes, we agree on that. Ultimately, it's more of an engineering problem to make the marketplace more efficient; even if my engineering ideas are somewhat wrong, the engineers can engineer something inexpensive enough to increase market efficiency (in this case, charging options for EV owners, making EV sales more fluid (efficient)). I don't think it's necessary for Tesla to do that, but I think it would be beneficial for Tesla to do that, as a net positive for everyone, a better over outcome, not a zero sum, including an improvement to Tesla's long term bottom line. I think a full time CEO as good as Elon would have already done this, but he's busy trying to save humankind in multiple ways including the multiplanitary thing, so that's why he's lagging.

 

[jhm]

Respectfully @StealthP3D - I think @jhm is suggesting that the lingering low share price is good for accumulation - perhaps by TSLA &/or Elon. Great things have happened recently, and great things are in the works, yet TSLA & Elon are as quiet as ever. I am wondering what percent would have to come out of the float for TSLA to 'stabilize' the price and return the price to its previous long-term trajectory instead of being totally taken private. The enthusiasm most everyone seemed to share regarding the dream of TSLA being placed on the SP500 was for that very reason........a large portion of short positions can become long positions. Perhaps Elon/Larry/TSLA have found there is a path to buying back only a portion of the shares for stability and then plowing ahead with rabid reinvestment in growth while reducing the threat to stock price from Short positions.....without going completely private. Thus, share price lingering at these levels for so long could help pave that path - as I am interpreting @jhm to suggest (but would most welcome his clarification here). Maybe tomorrow will tell us more. Private or Public, $420 will become the floor at some point on any path. Elon would not have it any other way IMHO
.

Yeah, I am definitely a buy low hold forever kind of Tesla investor. In fact I've never sold any if my share, but have donated a few to non-profits.

Musk is definitely interested in holding a significant share of any company he owns. I don't know that a pathway to taking it private is still in his mind, but I do think he is interested in accumulating a larger position over time. So it is of little value to him to hype the stock, and he may even be inclined to anti-sell the stock.

One thing is sure, Musk is strongly against running Tesla into bankruptcy. That would be the worst outcome for Musk because he loses both his investment and his control of the company.

A low stock price is really only a problem for Musk if Tesla needs to raise capital. Otherwise I think Musk is fairly content to allow the stock price to remain low.

 

[jhm]

~ Summoning your car after working out at the gym. ~

Irony personified.