Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Thanks for the clarification, folks. I obviously do not have a lot of experience with generators on job sites. I do think that anything over, say, 10 kWh/day is significant enough to need to be taken into account. Even if this thing comes with a 120 kWh battery, that's a solid chunk of the rated range.

If your job site is so remote from the base of operations that 100 kW's is insufficient to get you there and back each day, then maybe you would retain your expensive fuel-guzzling diesel truck. Most contractors have business models that don't need to stray that far from their base. Because wages. Fuel. Time.

 

[kengchang]

Generally work trucks do a lot of stop and start at relatively low speeds, so the regeneration is less. Think about what the energy used looks like in your S, 3, or X during stop and go traffic and you'll get a better idea of what a work truck does. In addition, the work truck often stops for several minutes before it starts up again as it goes from one site to another, so there is a lot of really high "first few miles".

I guess you haven't seen the Model S 100D doing 669.8 miles/ 1078 km on a single charge at speed of 25 mph.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I hope people remember this, and every single time they see some #TeslaQualityIssues / #TeslaPaintIssues / #TeslaWhateverIssues anecdotal nonsense, they respond by referencing this survey.

Every. Single. Time.

Anecdotes show that the rate of problems is nonzero.
Statistics show what said nonzero rate actually is.

In the modern world if you do not know the difference between anecdotes and statistics you are extremely easy to manipulate and frankly you are likely to have a much more limited level of free will in your actions. Almost everything physically possible (given our current technology) is likely to happen somewhere in the world at sometime.

Most members of TSLAQ that are not knowing and deliberate short and distort fraudsters have been manipulated into joining the cult because of their ignorance over this.

I think this is also the key reason many journalists have been drawn into supporting the TSLAQ cause. Many of them honestly do not know that most misinformation is from taking anecdotes out of their statistical context and hence forming a false impression/narrative. Fake news can be true and yet still highly misleading. I don't think this ignorance is an excuse for said journalists however. Journalists have an incredibly high level of responsibility given the position of power they have been given to educate the population. To not bother to learn what stories are useful statistically relevant news and what are pure entertainment or misinformation is unforgivably negligent.

 

[KarenRei]

We expect the Pickup truck reveal event sometime next month or Dec. My impression is that WS doesn't react strongly positive to reveals or Investor day events because the upside they suggest are too far into the future for Wall Street to care now.
Do you think that has changed any by the Q3 earnings report and SP bump? If Pickup truck specs and appearance are strong do you expect much benefit this year to SP? Or will the fact it won't start production for 1 1/2 or 2 years keep any SP bump minor?

As always... in theory, the SP reaction is how much the actuality differs from the expectation.

• If the design is more stylish and practical and in general desirable than people expected, cheaper than expected, and coming sooner than expected... SP should go up.
• If the design is more of a weirdmobile and impractical and general niche than people expected, more expensive than expected, and coming later than expected... SP should go down.

That's the theory, anyway.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Glad someone has finally done a reasonable size survey with a good level of detail. It seems quite clear that while quality can suffer during short term production/delivery bursts, Tesla is well ahead of the industry average already and only getting better.
Of course, I fully expect most journalists to ignore these statistics and continue to worship one off anecdotes that fit their narrative.

Some interesting results and I'm sure some useful feedback Tesla could use to improve its product.

One thing that stands out is how many customers flag voice commands as a feature weakness. I have wondered for some time when Tesla is going to strengthen this with a high quality AI assistant. Will it partner with Google or Alexa for this or will it go it alone? My money is on a Tesla assistant that they will want to eventually become a real rival to Alexa/Siri etc (In a Robotaxi world having a personalised AI assistant to chat to in the car could have huge value). I haven't seen any sign of Tesla hiring Natural Language Processing AI talent though. Anyone know if this is an internal AI project within Tesla?

Interior materials seems like another standout for some relatively easy product improvement.

The paint quality issue keeps coming up, here at TMC and on this survey. Elon and team has come up with some interesting patents, how about patenting a new type of paint that has the durability of oil based paint but recyclable (why is this even a thing) like water based.

Better get PPG on the phone.

 

[Nocturnal]

Since the pick-up is the hot topic, I'm wondering if my assumptions on market penetration make sense. I'm thinking that it will be a cool but odd design (duh), and at first will appeal to tech bros. Then we will see people who actually use their trucks for work ( < 20%) notice the cost savings and features. After those guys really embrace the product them the driveway queens will stop seeing them as threats to their manhood and start getting interested. No idea where the off-road crowd (and the larger number that just like the idea of going off-road off- but never do it) will factor in.

 

[MP3Mike]

At a modern job site, the bulk of power needed is for air compressors. But many tools that previously ran on compressed air are switching to more efficient rechargeable tools. In any case, contractors needing job site power will obviously be buying long-range trucks with the bigger battery. This will save them the huge expense of erecting tempory power service during construction just to run a few lights and compressors and nailers.

On-board 240V will also be huge for welders who work out of their trucks. Currently, they need a very large generator and fuel supply which takes up a good portion of their truck. Arc welders need big current but it is only in use a minute here, a minute there so the total consumption is not all that high. Perfect application for a traction battery.

And don't forget that the Tesla Pickup is supposed to have an air compressor, probably optional, built in that would be powered directly by the HV battery. (Thus being much more efficient than one run via an inverter.)

That is also one fewer pieces of equipment that they have to haul to the job site with them and worry about being stolen.

 

[humbaba]

so I got an amusing piece of physical spam today: "Help us Build a Better Battery Electric Vehicle!". Its from Escalent (formerly Morpace) whom I have never heard of. A quick search got a hit from the better business bureau:

Mailed survey offers the below, but no gift card is provided once survey is completed. "By completing the online survey, Morpace will email you a $25 Amazon Gift card (claim code link) as a "THANK YOU" for your time and insight. No expiration to survey is listed on card.

I didn't see anything to give the impression that they would be connected with EVs, just a random marketing company. I can't help but wonder about the context. Who on earth would be engaging a dodgy marketing firm for "cold" surveys?

 

[KarenRei]

I'm thinking that it will be a cool but odd design (duh)

IMHO: Tesla does not make "wierdmobiles". Ever.

Different? Yes. Weird? No. If you want weird, you need to turn to Japan.

Or France:

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Has anyone tried blocking one of the TSLAQ guys themselves by applying this tag to one of their own messages ?

Sounds funny, but I have casually noticed no less than three True Acolytes Of The Q complaining bitterly they were "blocked, BLOCKED! for simply asking a question."

 

[UncaNed]

IMHO: Tesla does not make "wierdmobiles". Ever.

Different? Yes. Weird? No. If you want weird, you need to turn to Japan.

Or France:

The Honda Snoopy mobile is cute. I'd buy one.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

No more speculation about truck battery, range, features and design beyond this point. When the truck is officially launched next month mods may temporarily be more lenient. Until then there are plenty of dedicated truck threads to take these discussions to.

 

[Krugerrand]

I find it hard to sweat this noise given how far up we are. Would have liked to have deleveraged a bit more than I did before jumping back down, but I got half done with what I planned to. There's so much awesomeness coming this quarter, a couple kittens batting at the stock price doesn't faze me.

I think I’m offended.

 

[skivi]

IMHO: Tesla does not make "wierdmobiles". Ever.

Different? Yes. Weird? No. If you want weird, you need to turn to Japan.

Or France:

I first saw the last pic and thought, i hope that lands not on the street. It looks like a Titanic inside and a really weird outside.
Just my opinion.

 

[StealthP3D]

We expect the Pickup truck reveal event sometime next month or Dec. My impression is that WS doesn't react strongly positive to reveals or Investor day events because the upside they suggest are too far into the future for Wall Street to care now.
Do you think that has changed any by the Q3 earnings report and SP bump? If Pickup truck specs and appearance are strong do you expect much benefit this year to SP? Or will the fact it won't start production for 1 1/2 or 2 years keep any SP bump minor?

The pickup announcement will have a much bigger effect post Q3 earnings than it would have had when the narrative was "the more vehicles Tesla makes, the more money they lose". Combined with other announcements/developments, it could be huge. On its own, not so much.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Since the pick-up is the hot topic, I'm wondering if my assumptions on market penetration make sense. I'm thinking that it will be a cool but odd design (duh), and at first will appeal to tech bros. Then we will see people who actually use their trucks for work ( < 20%) notice the cost savings and features. After those guys really embrace the product them the driveway queens will stop seeing them as threats to their manhood and start getting interested. No idea where the off-road crowd (and the larger number that just like the idea of going off-road off- but never do it) will factor in.

Or the Pickup will be designed not too weird, different enough, and capable enough to grab a small percentage of the truck market that will keep Tesla busy for years. Replace the S/X as the prime profit maker,spawn a CUV, and cause product managers headaches at Ford,GM and FCA as they struggle with whether to design their next gen trucks as they do now or ape Tesla's design.

We will see in less than a month.

 

[TradingInvest]

The survey Randall did is pretty good. The results are what I have expected.

If people from Consumer Reports look at the survey results, they would say "driving fun got 100 points, paint got zero, so average them out, Tesla gets 50 out of 100."

If this is not ridiculous, I don't know what is. In reality, I can enjoy driving fun for the next 200k miles. That little paint blemish? who cares. I wouldn't notice it once I get some road dust on the car. By the way, my car didn't have any paint issues.

 

[davecolene0606]

Well,, to further the mission, cashflow (created by gross margin) is needed. Emphasizing configurations with higher margins rather than the lower margin base models furthers the mission. Because the context is cars, what other car manufacturers do is relevant in this case. Other car manufacturers have the dealers do this for them, in Tesla's case, with no dealers, the base model is a bit harder to obtain.

Agreed, base model is an offline order last I checked, so, a bit more effort involved to buy it. I think we’re kinda talkin past each other. Tesla definitely needs to stay solvent via correct product mix, but decisions have been made that show they are very interested in getting out as many products as possible, which furthers the stated goal.

cheers!

Fire Away!

 

[Driver Dave]

Headline:

Tesla filing shows U.S. sales tumbled 39% in third quarter

vs Article:

Tesla Inc’s third-quarter revenue tumbled 39% in the United States, its first drop in more than two years, but sales in China and other regions surged, the electric car maker’s break down of sales by geography showed on Tuesday.



The real headline is:

Don't Trade On Headlines

 

[KSilver2000]

IMHO: Tesla does not make "wierdmobiles". Ever.

Different? Yes. Weird? No. If you want weird, you need to turn to Japan.

Or France:

Not sure what you find weird about the Honda.
The circular LEDs on the headlight?