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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You're living up to your moniker!Nonsense:
Firstly, this was entirely expected: actual warranty outflows came down dramatically since early 2018, due to Model 3 production quality improvements. Adjusting warranty reserves was entirely justified.
Secondly, $185 per car is only around 0.3% of margin, and the margin improvements are permanent, I.e. sustainable.
Tesla's fixed costs were depreciated significantly faster than German carmakers are doing with comparable equipment - so this too was justified and is sustainable.
Inventory actually went up, plus liquidation of pre-Raven units in Q3 reduced ASP and margins ...
This was only $30m, deferred revenue actually increased significantly over Q2.
I.e. not only is this sustained, there's more margin improvements lined up.
Oh, that price target certainly explains his TSLAQ truthing about the 10Q...
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Okay, here's a laugh. I busted up on just the headline alone. (I don't look at Sucking Air, but Market Watch pimps their FUD)
In 10-Q, Tesla Admits China Continues To Deny Required Manufacturing License - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
There you have it, those dunces @SA have finally figured it out, manufacturing has many steps and there are multiple licensing hurdles to pass.
I'm shocked, really I am. I didn't think they had the collective IQ of a toe-nail clipping.
[okay, I should probably trim all of the vitriol, but somehow I don't feel like it]
In 10-Q, Tesla Admits China Continues To Deny Required Manufacturing License - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
FUD spewing moron said:
There you have it, those dunces @SA have finally figured it out, manufacturing has many steps and there are multiple licensing hurdles to pass.
I'm shocked, really I am. I didn't think they had the collective IQ of a toe-nail clipping.
[okay, I should probably trim all of the vitriol, but somehow I don't feel like it]
Generally work trucks do a lot of stop and start at relatively low speeds, so the regeneration is less. Think about what the energy used looks like in your S, 3, or X during stop and go traffic and you'll get a better idea of what a work truck does. In addition, the work truck often stops for several minutes before it starts up again as it goes from one site to another, so there is a lot of really high "first few miles".
Log this under FYI-
VW's electric bet in China brings global muscle to zero-emissions race
VW's electric bet in China brings global muscle to zero-emissions race
"
FRANKFURT/ZWICKAU -- Volkswagen Group is ramping up production of electric cars to around 1 million vehicles by end of 2022, according to manufacturing plans seen by Reuters, enabling the German carmaker to make China a key battleground in the global EV race.
VW is readying two Chinese factories to build electric cars next year. The Chinese plants will have a production capacity of 600,000 vehicles, according to Volkswagen's plans, which have not been previously reported -- revealing VW’s ability to industrialize production faster than other pioneers in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla Inc. is still trying to reach its goal of making more than 500,000 cars a year by building a new factory in Shanghai, China, while VW can rely on an established workforce in two of its plants in Anting and Foshun to build zero-emission cars.
The scale and speed of VW's electrification push marks a shift in favor of established manufacturers that can use existing factories and profit from combustion-engined utility vehicles to scale up faster than startups.
"The truth is barriers to entry in autos remain high," said Max Warburton, an analyst at Bernstein Research. "Making cars is hard. The move to electric vehicles will be expensive, but will probably be led by traditional manufacturers.""
"Rather than adjusting production gradually, and using multi-powertrain platforms, VW is making a massive bet on a dedicated electric vehicle architecture, known as MEB, in the hope of increasing economies of scale sufficiently to push down the price of electric cars to around 20,000 euros ($22,262).
The carmaker is retooling eight plants across the globe by 2022 to specialize in manufacturing electric cars, and license its electric MEB platform to rivals, senior VW executives told Reuters, putting it on track to become the world's largest maker of zero-emission vehicles.
Tesla has emerged as a serious competitor with a credible car, its Model 3, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told Reuters last week. But startups have a hard time entering mass production without sufficient production facilities, he said.
"The question is, can you expand your production quickly enough? The capital intensity is increasing," Diess said."
Click on the link to read the rest of the article.
VW's electric bet in China brings global muscle to zero-emissions race
VW's electric bet in China brings global muscle to zero-emissions race
"
FRANKFURT/ZWICKAU -- Volkswagen Group is ramping up production of electric cars to around 1 million vehicles by end of 2022, according to manufacturing plans seen by Reuters, enabling the German carmaker to make China a key battleground in the global EV race.
VW is readying two Chinese factories to build electric cars next year. The Chinese plants will have a production capacity of 600,000 vehicles, according to Volkswagen's plans, which have not been previously reported -- revealing VW’s ability to industrialize production faster than other pioneers in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla Inc. is still trying to reach its goal of making more than 500,000 cars a year by building a new factory in Shanghai, China, while VW can rely on an established workforce in two of its plants in Anting and Foshun to build zero-emission cars.
The scale and speed of VW's electrification push marks a shift in favor of established manufacturers that can use existing factories and profit from combustion-engined utility vehicles to scale up faster than startups.
"The truth is barriers to entry in autos remain high," said Max Warburton, an analyst at Bernstein Research. "Making cars is hard. The move to electric vehicles will be expensive, but will probably be led by traditional manufacturers.""
"Rather than adjusting production gradually, and using multi-powertrain platforms, VW is making a massive bet on a dedicated electric vehicle architecture, known as MEB, in the hope of increasing economies of scale sufficiently to push down the price of electric cars to around 20,000 euros ($22,262).
The carmaker is retooling eight plants across the globe by 2022 to specialize in manufacturing electric cars, and license its electric MEB platform to rivals, senior VW executives told Reuters, putting it on track to become the world's largest maker of zero-emission vehicles.
Tesla has emerged as a serious competitor with a credible car, its Model 3, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told Reuters last week. But startups have a hard time entering mass production without sufficient production facilities, he said.
"The question is, can you expand your production quickly enough? The capital intensity is increasing," Diess said."
Click on the link to read the rest of the article.
Isn't that relatively better (stop and go) for EVs compared to ICE though? ICE uses X energy to get to speed on that first mile, EV uses Y. ICE gains 0 back, EV gains Y-Z back.
Shame we don't have regen on trailers (yet). The tow vehicle can absorb some of that kinetic energy but it's a pretty small portion. 10-20% maybe?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Today's pressure feels fairly impotent to me, it's just shorts shouting headlines about US sales. The 10Q was really strong IMO.
Fresh data points on costs and profit are being fed into algos as we speak.
More upgrades from rational institutional shops should be coming.
Shorts have clearly not yet covered en masse.
If the truck reveal goes extremely well(which I highly highly doubt) and macros comply, we should shoot right past $400 in Nov.
Why we didn't buy $400 2021 LEAPs for $11 last week is a mystery we might as well forget about.
Certainly, but many ICE trucks have giant fuel tanks to compensate. Also, stop, park, wait, stop, park, wait is much less efficient than stop and go.
Others have responded to that specific question from an aero/rolling resistance perspective, but I think we should also remember that one of the truck's features is supposed to be 240V power access for job site tools. If that's actually used (and it will be, methinks), the truck could be looking at a not-insignificant amount of battery drain at the job site. We're not talking laptop-level power here. The truck is going to need to be able to sustain a bunch of kWh/day drain from tools while still holding enough charge to get in and out of the job site.
I also got a stupid low trade in offer on my 3 from Tesla, but that was over 2 months ago. I've heard second hand that the trade in offers have improved dramatically recently as U.S. supply has fallen significantly short of demand.
I simply don't understand why people do trade-ins. You almost always get a much better deal selling the car yourself. Is it really worth it to people to throw thousands of dollars away for the convenience factor?
You save on sales taxes, and based on the prices they were asking for their used inventory, I thought I might get an offer close enough to make the convenience worth it. At the time I was totally wrong, but saw a youtube video where a guy also got a very low offer (I want to say in the low or mid 20s) for a 3 LR RWD with nearly 60k miles, and he told them to forget about it but still ordered a new car. By the time the new car was ready for delivery, they offered him $35k, which is very high for a 3 with 60k miles, or at least at seems so compared to the fact that they were selling LR just a few months ago with basically no miles in the low 40s.
Not in all states. But, in the states that do provide the sales tax break, it would be an incentive as you say.
i vaguely recall someone saying Tesla matches offers from places like Carmax. i found these:
Carmax Match | Tesla
Tesla no longer matches Carmax on Tesla Trade-Ins? (recent posts at the end of that thread saying that they were able to match)
dc_h
Active Member
I hope the new line is another "tent". The output of tent 1 or GA5 is 2000 cars a week, or about 14 an hour. They continue to improve productivity, so this is likely to increase going forward, so GA5 & 6 could be 5000 cars a week and should get Fremont over 10,000 a week S3XY next year. Since they will be able to adjust output of 3 & Y, they could shift to 60% Y and 40% 3, so margins & ASP should increase next year.
I'd expect 2019 Q1 pause to happen again, but be less impactful, as they update lines to support Y production and continue to catch up to the Q4 overhang. With high Europe and China demand, it looks like US Q4 deliveries may be shifting to Q1 for November orders.
I thought you were a bear? You are making a solid case for sales & margins to continue to improve. With no competition in range, performance and software, margins will be more and more discretionary for Tesla as they decide how to split continued productivity gains between margin improvement and reduced prices. According to your analysis about cost reductions and 10 times scale, Tesla could reduce prices 50% over the next 5 years and still retain the current margins. Next year alone, if Tesla can hit 600,000 cars, they should drive down COGS by about 10% YOY, which would allow them to reduce prices and expand margins.
Some also just don't want the hassle or having to talk to/negotiate with people. Post ad. Answer questions from a bunch of random idiots. Meet some of them. Negotiate price. Worry about transfer of title. Worry about validating payment.
Anyone else think today's dip is a good medium-term/long-term thing?
As an aside, I'm planning for a coast-to-coast road trip in a month-long leased Model S early next year.
As an aside, I'm planning for a coast-to-coast road trip in a month-long leased Model S early next year.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I would call it "common Tesla Fallacies and Misconceptions" because:
-Many people don't know what "FUD" means
-It sounds more interesting
-It sounds less like you are trying to change what someone thinks, just the facts please.
Paying insurance (and possibly making payments which then adds getting buyer to bank to pay off existing loan) on two cars during the overlap, or on zero cars and walking to work.
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