Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Now they're kicking their wounds!

Dang - that smarts.

 

[Krugerrand]

It doesn't say that Tesla received a promise. It mentions the "demand" and then moves on.
"Fresh from his experience building a factory in China, Musk had a demand that was as clear as it was hard to execute for notoriously bureaucratic Germans: to build the site as swiftly as the one in Shanghai, according to Brandenburg’s economy minister, Joerg Steinbach. That caused considerable consternation among officials still chafing from the new-airport debacle."

Of course it was promised.

 

[kengchang]

More permits

 

[ZeApelido]

Damn, is it the night before Christmas or something? Well, actually, I did see a couple of creatures stirring. I mean, how did they build this factory so fast, yet, someone is able to take drone footage in broad daylight with absolutely NO WORK happening?

Linette says all we see are DerpFake I mean DerpFake videos

 

[ZeApelido]

Check out Autoline Network gushing about Tesla!!! Complete with OMG quotes:

"Tesla has done an extraordinary job of elbowing its way into the luxury segment. At first the German luxury brands sneered at the silicon valley upstart. Now they're kicking their wounds!"

"As the Model 3 becomes more popular, sales of BMW 3 series, Mercedes C Class and Audi A3 have plummeted! And last quarter alone, BMW 3 series sales dropped 64%"

"And what's really gotta worry the German brands is that the Model 3 sells at a higher price than their cars do."

...and re: Giga 4

"The German brands have gotta be concerned that German consumers will be proud to drive around in German-made Teslas."

I wonder if this will positively affect German demand right away, not even waiting for the cars to be produced there.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Anybody's worried that nearby airport will obstruct drones controlling the progress of GF4?
I'm worried.

The airport has to open first.

 

[RobStark]

Elon Musk says Brexit made him decide against Tesla electric car Gigafactory in UK
Wow, Musk says that Brexit uncertainty cost the UK the Gigafactory and R&D center.

Then what made Musk decide to place Tesla European Headquarters and Assembly Plant in The Netherlands in 2012 instead of the UK?

Fact is the UK was never going to get the first European GF. It needed to be centrally located inside the EU not on the fringe for easy transport throughout the Eurozone. Not loaded on ships or through the Chunnel.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Do we know that the GF3 wasn't already designed and built to EU specs?

We don't know, but I would imagine in China you have to build to Chinese regulations (fire code, etc) and these are not necessarily 100% EU compatible.

 

[Skryll]

There is no reason that it shouldn't triple in value in the next year. If Tesla hits $1000 a share the market cap would still be a little over 150 Billion. That's not that high for a company that has as much potential as Tesla.

Thats what I thought two years ago. And my old wisdom 'leaps are safer' did not hold.

What kind of car do you think Greta Thunberg will buy? With spokespeople like that young super environmentalist the sky is the limit.

While I see the trend I also think Greta would not buy a car to begin with.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

Found it on Twitter. Don’t see it posted anywhere else yet.

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - October 2019.pdf - Simplify your life

-8.6%

from the end of October the sp rose another 10%...hope he is betting more this time

 

[JustMe]

Thats what I thought two years ago. And my old wisdom 'leaps are safer' did not hold.

While I see the trend I also think Greta would not buy a car to begin with.

Folks, this question is moot - the Governator already hooked her up with a Model 3:
Arnold Schwarzenegger sends Tesla Model 3 for climate activist Greta Thunberg

 

[Electroman]

Can Germany beat China to build a state of the art car factory?

I don't think they can and I don't think anyone can for that matter. It is insane and beyond human to build and complete an auto factory in just 10 months and have production cars rolling out, except the Chinese. Look at the Beijing Olympics. It was spectacularly done without a hitch. The operning ceremoney is an event the world will not seen another, until Olympics is back to China. Even the Beijing air was clear, because they banned cars for a few weeks prior.

Point is, it is meaningless to work on Chinese timelines. If GF4 is completed in say 2 years from start to finish, that will be a record for the rest of the world. Realistically I think the first cars will roll out in 2.5 years from the first bulldozer on the ground, and that is not bad at all.

 

[Electroman]

How he came to manage millions of other people's money can only be explained by one thing: Rich parents.

I have a strong suspicion he is playing with money pooled from shorts and other vested interests (of which there are money with deep pockets).

 

[dc_h]

I don't think they can and I don't think anyone can for that matter. It is insane and beyond human to build and complete an auto factory in just 10 months and have production cars rolling out, except the Chinese. Look at the Beijing Olympics. It was spectacularly done without a hitch. The operning ceremoney is an event the world will not seen another, until Olympics is back to China. Even the Beijing air was clear, because they banned cars for a few weeks prior.

Point is, it is meaningless to work on Chinese timelines. If GF4 is completed in say 2 years from start to finish, that will be a record for the rest of the world. Realistically I think the first cars will roll out in 2.5 years from the first bulldozer on the ground, and that is not bad at all.

The race will be interesting. The Shanghai design is likely to be followed, so many lessons learned, which should allow some time savings. Adjust for not China regulations and labor, but Grohmann nearby, it makes for an interesting pluses and minuses. Q1 2021 sounds good for early production.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The race will be interesting. The Shanghai design is likely to be followed, so many lessons learned, which should allow some time savings. Adjust for not China regulations and labor, but Grohmann nearby, it makes for an interesting pluses and minuses. Q1 2021 sounds good for early production.

I’ll play the pessimist and say Dec 2021. Hope I’m wrong!

 

[TradingInvest]

I have a strong suspicion he is playing with money pooled from shorts and other vested interests (of which there are money with deep pockets).

Originally Spiegel's fund was around 2 million, probably his parent's retirement money. Later a hedge fund gave a few million to him to manage. That hedge fund manager talked about this on TV. That fund also shorts TSLA. I can't find the interview now. It doesn't matter, all of them will be burned. The more stubborn they are the better.

 

[EVNow]

We don't know, but I would imagine in China you have to build to Chinese regulations (fire code, etc) and these are not necessarily 100% EU compatible.

I’v no idea whether it’s true for China in this case but it is common to reuse either US or EU standards. Why reinvent the wheel.

For eg, crash and emissions standards, IIRC, are based on EU standards in China and India. I was researching this a few years back.

 

[Buckminster]

Eh. I doubt Elon was ever seriously considering the UK anyways. Being in the heart of Europe vs an island. World class engineers, close to world class designers, cheaper labor, existing German executives at Grohmann. Germany had a lot of advantages.

Exactly, and don't forget about the cars driving themselves to the customer straight off the production line in a few years!

 

[JustMe]

Exactly, and don't forget about the cars driving themselves to the customer straight off the production line in a few years!

If FSD really does come about sometime soon, i wonder how many cars driving around town will be empty... Working as robo taxis or running errands. It’s going to be a bit strange

 

[Fact Checking]

Germany is the heart of the European car industry. Bmw, Mercedes, Volkswagen are possible customers for Tesla batteries. I see one or more of these going bankrupt and being used to make Teslas in the future. They just aren't moving fast enough to overcome the Tesla onslaught.

I'd say that outright bankruptcy is unlikely - even the German coal industry with unionized miners wasn't allowed to go bankrupt, and the German auto industry and its dependencies are like 100x times larger.

But big ICE carmakers being reorganized, down-sized, bailed out, reorganized again and down-sized, being sold shot-gun mergers to other, luckier automakers, combined with government job programs finding place for the unemployed workers, for decades and decades into the future, while the car brands live on but the machinery to make ICE cars is rusting away?

I'd say that's a 90% probable outcome for many of them, unless the EV transition is so viscous and so profitable, consumers are so anxious to get EVs, any EV, that they'll buy even the subpar ones, that the growth of their new EV business saves the declining ICE business. I.e. there's 1,000,000,000 new EVs to be made in the world, and survival of ICE industry heavyweights IMHO largely depends whether this will be done in 20 or in 10 years: at this point the faster the better for them.

In both scenarios Tesla will probably be fine.