Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

I usually let Denise ride in the passenger compartment with me.

Opps, caught me<grin>!

 

[floydboy]

More of a Jeep person but frustrated with some of the Jeep drama. I like trucks but in reality it is hard to out-utility a van with the exception of towing. I need to tow small trailers (<3k lbs) so with the Cyber Truck I can trade in the Jeep and have it pretty much all. Being able to plop a full size chest freezer or frig in the vault and just plug it in and go is a neat concept when there is food involved and there are a lot of errands to run.

Now for my wife, the question is the frunk and I have not seen much info on the frunk. Pictures anyone?

Yeah, I asked about the frunk the other day.

 

[Krugerrand]

• Much more expensive tooling:
  • Stainless steel is just too hard, and even the latest high-tech press-die alloys don't allow more than just a couple of ten thousand runs - i.e. amortization of these long lead time tooling items is incredibly high because dies that are durable enough to stamp hundreds of thousands of panels before wearing down are incredibly difficult to design and manufacture. I.e. the best, most important property of high precision stamping dies (durability) increases their cost and their lead time significantly.
    
  • Stainless steel is not malleable enough and the press springs back hard which wears down other parts of the press as well IIRC. I believe @Krugerrand wrote about this a year ago or so? (@ReflexFunds might have mentioned it too.)
    
  • Welding of stainless steel is rather difficult - there's contractors out there who do nothing but install and weld stainless steel as a specialty.

And here comes Tesla and turns all of these economic factors upside down with their first-principles stainless steel car design break-through:

• Much less expensive tooling and assembly:
  • The folded-stainless-steel design requires no stamping.
  • This also reduces tooling lead time significantly. Note how Tesla has announced to make it in 2021 already - basically 1.5 years from now. This is incredibly fast for a new product that changes basically everything about how cars are made, and future iterations will be even faster.
  • Folded stainless steel doesn't have to be welded.

FYI, they can just use a roll mill and laser cut the stainless steel panels.

 

[floydboy]

I see Nikola's into hydrogen. That's some expensive Rube Goldberg! Why not just skip all the 'use electricity to create a source to make electricity' and just use the electricity directly?

 

[22522]

But I wonder whether they had thrown the ball multiple times at both the front and rear windows and weakened both prior to the unveiling? The video elon tweeted showed Franz hitting only the front window. An alternative hypothesis is that Franz was more amped up onstage and just threw the ball harder.

He remembered how to use his weight in a "Crow hop" throw on stage. It took a while for his muscle memory to wake up. I think he is from Connecticut or something. Pretty tall. There should be some baseball in there somewhere.

 

[Electroman]

Absolutely the breaking of the glass during the demo was amateur hour, and has been so during much of Tesla's 10+ years of existence, with Elon getting a solid C- grade for "public presentation performance".

Tesla is a success despite all that, and this embarrassment won't change that either. Tesla engineering has at times been "driven by embarrassment": the Model 3 panel gaps now exceed German premium car panel gap metrics.

I'm wondering when Elon is finally going to discover that other introvert tech execs are using ... professional coaches to prepare for presentations, with excellent results. Giving good presentations is a technology in essence, one which Elon should eventually acquire.

Sorry disagree. Elon is perfectly fine with his stammering and unscripted presentations. I actually prefer this to other polished fake presentations.

The problem and the big failure in this reveal though, is they never even talked and demoed any of the key killer capabilities of this cyber truck. The ability to use electric tools, to pull a large camper effectively and easily, and the amazing range. What is the expected range with a moderate load?

Why this silly focus on unbreakable glass? They did the same thing during X reveal - talk too much about the zombie apocalypse air filter.

Elon has always been a slightly clunky presenter, that's part of his charm. But devoting almost the entire presentation to your vehicle being smash proof (here's a video of bullets, here's a guy on a ladder dropping a metal ball) and then casually smashing both windows without much effort is just bizarre.

Why not focus on the utility that this vehicle gives workers? Show a bunch of guys building a movie set and powering a bunch of tools off it. Show it nailing an off road dirt track. Show it driving through a stream. And as I said, show a few of them dragging a Falcon 9 first stage. All of this could have been done with Elon being his attractively awkward self. It was just poorly executed, which is a crying shame for all those that worked so hard on the vehicle.

Very well said.

 

[JonathanDandrea]

They will sell as many of these as they can build like the thing or not. I know a few anti Tesla Floridians that put deposits down because of the specs and price. Specs and price are enabled by shape and construction. This thing will own Mudfest.

 

[Rarity]

I here that a new Tesla Plant is coming to Hurt, Virginia. Ground has already been broke.....Is this true? I live a 1/2 mile from site.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Tesla is coming to the area in some fashion. But I doubt that Tesla is building a plant in Hurt. These plants need large potential workforces for the plant and suppliers. Hurt does not have one. In hindsight, Reno NV doesn't either, even at population 250k.

 

[lklundin]

Its 306 Stainless Steel, same as SpaceX is using to build the Starship. The big advantage is that 306SS actually gets STRONGER at cryogenic temperatures.

Will SpaceX's know-how on how to actually work with this type of steel, e.g. friction stir welding be of any relevance to the Cybertruck?

 

[TradingInvest]

All future electric pickup trucks will have this sloped shape front and back. Otherwise they can't compete due to drag coefficient.

 

[Unpilot]

Jack talks cybertruck.....as always 1.5 speed recommended.

 

[lascavarian]

Yeah, I asked about the frunk the other day.

Maybe that is where they are going to stow the 2 Tesla electric bicycles they haven't announced yet. Just kidding, that is for the StarLink module err I mean, that is for the deflector emitters err I mean, for the pedestrian air bags err never mind.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

To add on to what some have just mentioned about how the unveil didnt focus on the areas it should have. The event really should have been held in the middle of nowhere in the desert, during the day or dusk when there's still some light, and in ways that show off how it would do for everyday truck buyers.

The Motortrend images that were captured during the day look 10 times better than their lighting setup at the design center. Literally everyone agreed that it looked much more appealing when the Motortrend images and video came out.

 

[sundaymorning]

Sorry disagree. Elon is perfectly fine with his stammering and unscripted presentations. I actually prefer this to other polished fake presentations.

The problem and the big failure in this reveal though, is they never even talked and demoed any of the key killer capabilities of this cyber truck. The ability to use electric tools, to pull a large camper effectively and easily, and the amazing range. What is the expected range with a moderate load?

Why this silly focus on unbreakable glass? They did the same thing during X reveal - talk too much about the zombie apocalypse air filter.



Very well said.

All the demo that Tesla “didn’t show” was presented in a tug of war with the F-150. Every truck driver is aware of the 150’s capabilities, pulling the 150 like it’s a crying infant away from the Walmart toy section says it all.

 

[Electroman]

[

It's still different. Many do not consider performance part of function. I concede this line is blurry. But people can live without fast acceleration, many who rely their lives on the truck can not live without the bed size, the load and the towing capacity.

It's still the first time EV is price competitive when only base functionality is considered.

Here is another comment in Yahoo that expresses the same sentiment.

ATTACH=full]480510[/ATTACH]

 

[sundaymorning]

View attachment 480510

Here is another comment in Yahoo that expresses the same sentiment.

Did you miss the tug of war between the Cyber and F150? It’s not just about acceleration. It’s like a parent pulling the 150 like it’s an infant.

 

[TradingInvest]

By 2022, even if Tesla Network is not in operation, at least Tesla's FSD will be in advanced stage. Demand should be very high for Cybertruck rental (runs great, doesn't need gasoline, FSD). If Tesla Network starts to work in 3 years, the truck will pay for itself quickly. Tesla offered an amazing deal so people can order now and lock in the FSD price. There is no downside. I have never seen a good deal like this.

 

[lklundin]

LOL! People will go to any length to make something that is not a problem seem like a capital offense. Using the serial number is pretty standard for the default passwords of wifi router/modems supplied by ISP's around the country. You are supposed to change them to something even harder to guess upon activation.

The Powerwall is no different and is only as secure as your home wifi network it runs on anyway.

Much ado about nothing.

The people behind the post on github claim that the default (easily guessed) WIFI password cannot be changed and that WIFI cannot be turned off - and that the device broadcasts its network name, one with enough entropy that when you see a matching one, it will quite likely be a Tesla PowerWall.

This sounds _really_ bad - and only more so considering the list of possible abuses.
Considering how Tesla's cars fared among penetration testers, it also sounds incredible.

Edit: If the posted info is correct, malicious attackers (can anyone be imagined?), can just code up a script (possibly just modified from the github one), cruise around in a vehicle with a laptop with an amplified WIFI signal - and compromise any PowerWall installation that they happen to come within range of. In California that would probably amount to something quite quickly - and considering how poorly the grid there handles irregularities, I would expect notable consequences. So I am absolutely sure Tesla is working 100% now to determine whether this is actually a problem and if so then fix it ASAP...

 

[Prunesquallor]

soooo based on @LN1_Casey and @Lycanthrope 's coordinated reservations, it appears orders DO give SEQUENTIAL rn's.

So 200k have been pre-ordered in USA alone.

This is big

If you need further proof, note that I and @pz1975 posted at exactly the same time with very similar confirmation numbers.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[2virgule5]

Agree overall except I’m expecting side mirrors that fold flush unless there are regulatory changes allowing cameras to replace mirrors.

It may happen by 2021 (at least it is slowly moving).
U.S. to test mirrorless, camera-based systems in autos