Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

6 months ago the consensus was that Pickup would be a Model S/X equivalent $90k+ car.
Elon adjusted expectations that he was aiming for below $50k but few people believed him.
Tesla just announced it will start at $40k, with better specs than Model Y for lower base price.

How is some people's main takeaway here that they broke some glass?

The unusual looks are because of first principles engineering led decisions to dramatically reduce production cost while increasing functionality. Even ignoring these constraints, I think Franz did a great job, it looks amazing and it will grow on people!

After more time for this to sink in, I'm growing more and more confident in my first impression that CyberTruck is Tesla's boldest move yet and has blown away all my expectations.

CyberTruck is a paradigm shift in:

• Vehicle production processes
• Vehicle structural design
• Vehicle aesthetics
• Vehicle materials
• Crash Safety
• Durability and toughness (almost certainly designed for 1 million miles with limited scratches or body repair work required)
• Capital efficiency (has removed all the most expensive parts of the production line)
• Production cost (likely huge savings relative to a traditional Pickup)
• Pickup functionality
• EV range

I do wonder how quickly the CyberTruck can be brought to market. The strong reservation count should give Elon confidence that CyberTruck is a hit and he should get fully behind mass production. I would guess 300-600k annual production capacity. The key reason for the CyberTruck design decisions and consequent aesthetics were to dramatically reduce production cost so it can be priced competitively with the cheapest F-150 and sell in huge volumes and actually make a difference to carbon emissions. I don't get how some people here can think Tesla designed this to be a niche product. Elon and Franz didn't just randomly decide to make a CyberPunk themed truck, they decided to make as cheap a Pickup truck as possible using first principles physics based engineering so as to sell in the highest possible volumes. The CyberPunk aesthetics were just a result of this cost optimisation.

I hope the mass production timeline can now be accelerated to early 2021. Lead times on the limited vehicle production equipment shouldn't be long, particularly if mostly made by Tesla. I think the limitation is likely how quickly Tesla can ramp up its in-house next generation battery chemistry/cells/pack. But if they can invest more to accelerate this, I think they should. After all, as Elon has said:

Elon: “If the schedule is long, it's wrong; if it's tight, it's right.”

Motortrend: "After all, as one of the Cybertruck's engineers whispered to me, "Like Elon says, 'It only takes nine months to make a baby."

 

[azaz]

Just found out that one of the acquaintances is going to buy cyber truck. He recently bought a Mercedes AMG sedan saying how his car was a true spirited car vs. a softy being Model 3. (At the time I didn’t bother to argue). Anyway, now he is attracted to the badass style and size of the cybertruck.

Conclusion: The cybertruck expands the Tesla brand profile significantly and brings in totally new customers.

agree with this a ton, S/X/3 were all safe designs on purpose. remember they went as far as a fake grille on the first S.

With the cybertruck Elon is emboldened and taking chances on a passion project for him, bringing in a new type of customer that may not want the safe approach of the S/X/3.

It's why I think a cyber sub brand could do really well as long as mass manufacturing of stainless steel cars is efficient and the bumps are ironed out with the truck

 

[Dutchie]

View attachment 480544

So that was 146,001

 

[floydboy]

Truck....is ccalling... NO! Too radical! I...mustn't .... Must wait for stock ...to improve!
GET OUT OF MY MIND!!

 

[lklundin]

Well here’s this morning “thorough” coverage from the Guardian...

I have also written a complaint to the Guardian, and simply referred to the above posting.

Thanks!

 

[phantasms]

I am in the 17%. Hope it’s not a trend but I was going to get a Y in the summer. But the price being so low changed my mind. I do currently own a full size pickup.

Same. The cyber will keep me out of a Y, probably. I’ll likely get a used i3 for $15k and roll that as a second car to the Model 3 till the truck comes in.

 

[Causalien]

Never been a spelling or grammar police type....but....

Heh. It's so easy to tell when I type on my phone vs my PC

 

[HG Wells]

Any announcement from Ford about reservations for the Mustange maki or whatever it's called ?

 

[Christine69420]

Do pickups have a large market in Norway?

No - a quite small market. Smaller trucks than the TCT and F150. And most are European or Japanese like the Mazda B-series.

 

[AlexS]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

I think Tesla could improve that with some moderate changes to the design. Some tweaks to the rear flanks and adding side windows into the vault (to give it more of a pickup silhouette without actually having one) could do a lot to break up the very blunt rear half in the side profile.

You have to understand that pick-ups are thing in US, in Europe and China market for such cars is very small. Model 3 is a thing worldwide.

 

[2virgule5]

The entry level is 250 miles, not 300 (that's the dual motor version). 15 miles a day is independent of the battery size.

Using a different angle (I couldn't resist), if we assume that the Plaid powertrain is similar to the Roadster 2.0, battery would be 200KWh. So 500 vs 620 miles for a much bigger vehicle... Not impossible if the weight is not much more than a Model X. With adapted tires and battery/powertrain weight reduction, the Cybertruck AWD may be doable with 100KWh pack.

 

[knowitall]

Garage enlargement comes standard with every Cybertruck. Just get it in there the first time (the hard part), don’t be afraid to scratches (to the truck that is).

I think you are right on it. I think Tesla has already broke ground in Hurt, Virginia for their East Coast facility. We have a Volvo Truck Facility in Dublin, Virginia. Volvo disclosed this week that they are laying off 700 workers at the Volvo Dublin, Virginia Plant.

 

[2virgule5]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

I think Tesla could improve that with some moderate changes to the design. Some tweaks to the rear flanks and adding side windows into the vault (to give it more of a pickup silhouette without actually having one) could do a lot to break up the very blunt rear half in the side profile.

In addition to previous answers, Model 3 was the first truly affordable Tesla and the first truly affordable electric vehicle without compromise, on the heels of universally acclaimed model S which only a few could afford. It is no wonder it did so well.

Fast forward few years, model 3 is now widely available, model Y is following soon (the tide of orders was also arguably smaller than after m3 reveal even if the market is larger), other choices are also popping up. In that world where the transition to electric vehicle seems inevitable, with close to 200k orders at the end of the week-end, the pickup is doing extremely well IMHO. In addition to create a new market (people that would never consider a regular truck) it will slowly bring home an increasing amount of existing truck owners based on spec & utility. At this price points I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla sells more than model 3, which is more important than RN.

 

[lklundin]

Are there side cameras on the cybertruck?

Yes. The uppermost, rear looking part of the front wheel "fender" has a small triangular surface that someone getting a test ride tweeted about.

 

[Boomer19]

I don't see the 146k reservation tally as that great. For context, the Model 3 was at 276k pre-orders after 2 days. The Cybertruck isn't quite at 2 days yet but is at 146k through 1.7 days, so it likely to be around 160k at that point. So it's on track for about 60% as many reservations despite being in a much larger niche with a much smaller down payment.

Given that the pickup niche is 2-3x that of a compact sedan, I think 500 - 700k reservation would indicate similar popularity (2-3x * 276k), but then the downpayment is much smaller now. Since $100 is much easier to part with, I think roughly 1 million reservations at this point would indicate similar reception. So arguably reception is only 15% as good as the Model 3.

I think Tesla could improve that with some moderate changes to the design. Some tweaks to the rear flanks and adding side windows into the vault (to give it more of a pickup silhouette without actually having one) could do a lot to break up the very blunt rear half in the side profile.

you’re joking right?
even i thought they would only reserve like 50k. i’m amazed at 146k. the model 3 exterior is timeless. the truck is obv pushing envelope. i want the truck, but can’t justify it now (maybe in future)
the pricing is what puts it over the top.
maybe next week won’t be a few more days of the stock settling and then heading north. maybe straight back to 350 monday? if i shorted that friday i’d be out of that by 630am on monday lol.
146k with no tax break and 2 years out??

theres not much you can say if you’re the boneheaded shill media about that. good luck trying to spin it negatively!

 

[printf42]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Tweeted:
146k Cybertruck orders so far, with 42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor

Elon Musk on Twitter

If people(bears) feel disappointed because it’s not on Model 3 level, there are a few factors you need to consider:

• People put reservations for Model 3 mainly wishing to get the 35k version before credits phase out.
• People don’t believe in reservations anymore because SR couldn’t come out in time.

So, the number so far is incredible to be in the same order of magnitude considering:

• The Cybertruck was not supposed to be appealing to everyone.
• The true goal of Cybertruck might be to rub the somewhat controversial design into peoples eyes, probably in preparation of the Model2/Robotaxi, which I predict will use the same sheet folding manufacturing method.
• For above, it already succeeded, by a landslide.

 

[Beltsbear]

There was a picture during the reveal, but I’ve not seen any high res images of it yet, just low res like this one.

View attachment 480545


There was also an image of a side storage bin.

View attachment 480549

Side flaps are a great location for the pop up mini guns.

 

[chiller]

Took me two days to go from "thats the ugliest thing I have ever seen", to "I need one"... so anyhow,
RN1129246XX is me, some 37 minutes ago.

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Tweeted:
146k Cybertruck orders so far, with 42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor

Elon Musk on Twitter

373,000 reservations for the Model 3 after the first week - WORLDWIDE, for a reasonably-sized sedan. And at that time there was no trim options (correct me if I'm wrong) you could only say you wanted to be in line for the Model 3 and you couldn't say AWD, RWD or whatever.

146,000 Cybertruck orders WORLDWIDE. For a vehicle type that does not get commonly driven in a lot of places. Its dimensions are kinda large for the UK, for example. This is a mostly-USA vehicle (I don't dispute there will be some orders all over the place, but not as many)

I did the math across the three trims and the 146,000 orders translates to $8.2billion in future revenue. (Without any other options being sold)

Pretty impressive numbers considering the "crazy/wild" design - and all the negative press.

 

[ZachF]

View attachment 480511

Did you miss the tug of war between the Cyber and F150? It’s not just about acceleration. It’s like a parent pulling the 150 like it’s an infant.

I'm going to laugh when there are videos of a Cybertruck trimotor beating a ford Raptor in a drag race while pulling a Ford Raptor.