Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - today:

 

[Bullish_Bear]

I factored nothing for GF3 - that's more potential upside.

the newest news was that China delivery from GF3 will start by the end of Jan, so no beef for Q4

 

[humbaba]

Okay, this is a call out to any short that is listening: I have some spare change in my account, but it isn't enough to even pick up a single share. I want to see some heavy shorting of the stock because, well, I'd like to add one more share. But I'm not expecting you to do all of the work, so here are the #TSLAQ talking points to use with your peers to get a nice short slide going:

• the cybertruck is a weird mobile that literally no one wants. All of the screencaps of orders are obviously photoshopped and they had to use a public domain owl model and couldn't afford any texture maps. Its all fake, no orders have been placed.
• Tesla can't make the truck, its all a fraud. This is clearly demonstrated by the wishful thinking pricing. The starting price of $40k would have to have $45k of battery to get the claimed range, and that isn't counting the rest of the vehicle's cost
• they couldn't even afford a decent mockup to put on stage, all they did was put some sheet metal on a frame and used poor lighting to cover this up. The "acceleration" was from driving the putt-putt up onto the spot where they have a chain. It linked up and a powerful real diesel motor yanked them forward. Notice they didn't go fast on the return trip. That's because the Tesla cult members were flintstoning the truck and pulling the chain back for the next run.
• they don't actually have any transparent aluminum, that's all just a lie, and the windows were made of glass. You getting to see that was a glitch in the matrix

oops, I think i may have said too much

What's going on with TSLA last minutes ? Any news on the press ?

While I appreciate the shorts answering the call to action they need to do more. The lower $TSLA goes the more shorting is needed. I don't have much spare change in my account so I want all shorts to dig down deep and make it count. Remember, the lower $TSLA is when shorted the more winning there is. Don't hold back, the world is watching.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

the newest news was that China delivery from GF3 will start by the end of Jan, so no beef for Q4

That report said Tesla wanted to have make sure they had started deliveries in volume by mid Jan. It was unclear as to when deliveries would actually start.

 

[EVNow]

They should also make the Ford the most tricked-out F-150 Platinum with all the bells and whistles checked, just to make sure that what they're humiliating is Ford's best and most expensive And don't just drag it up a slope... haul it around, wheels spinning futilely, for several minutes on end.

And unlike Ford, who can't get hold of the CT, Tesla can figure out the exact F150 configuration and weight etc that CT can easily beat - make sure the demo won't be a failure and then do live stream.

 

[Nocturnal]

And unlike Ford, who can't get hold of the CT, Tesla can figure out the exact F150 configuration and weight etc that CT can easily beat - make sure the demo won't be a failure and then do live stream.

It's amazing that we have gone from "an Electric pickup won't work, it will be a sissy truck for wimps" to "well, you should only compare it against an F-450" in such a short period of time.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What's going on with TSLA last minutes ? Any news on the press ?

A number of us pretty cleanly laid out what was probably gonna happen in trading this week. Expect to see more random spikes down

 

[Thekiwi]

That report said Tesla wanted to have make sure they had started deliveries in volume by mid Jan. It was unclear as to when deliveries would actually start.

This might bode well for Q4 if Tesla doesn’t feel under any pressure to try and rush GF3 deliveries by end of current quarter.

 

[KSilver2000]

I think I am glad I sold out all my short term shares at $359 today. There will be a drop following this event for me to go back in with my short term funds. Happens all the time with Tesla events/unveils in the past couple years. Too much hype builds IMO leading up to every Tesla event/unveil.

Part of the run up was triggered by the upcoming Cybertruck reveal. A sell off was likely no matter what the truck was.

Happens all the time in recent past with Tesla’s non-ER events. These events have been a money maker for swing trading.

 

[Fact Checking]

the newest news was that China delivery from GF3 will start by the end of Jan, so no beef for Q4

Source on "end of January"?

The latest rumor I've seen is that GF3 deliveries start at the beginning of January - but I suspect there's a few late December deliveries possible too.

 

[Fact Checking]

A number of us pretty cleanly laid out what was probably gonna happen in trading this week. Expect to see more random spikes down

Yeah, clearly there's a high volume bear attack that nullified the big Monday early-trading rise to ~$350, with the focus point possibly the trial which starts early December.

 

[agloutney]

I expected MIC model 3s to start selling this month but if they are stockpiling them till January I would think that would bode well for a better 1Q2020. With Q4 expected to be profitable already maybe this isn’t such a bad thing?

 

[KarenRei]

Source on "end of January"?

The latest rumor I've seen is that GF3 deliveries start at the beginning of January - but I suspect there's a few late December deliveries possible too.

If they were to start delivering in Q4, wouldn't they have a full quarter's depreciation on GF3? Or would it just be during the time that they were delivering?

If it's a full quarter's depreciation, stockpiling and then starting delivery in January would be a no-brainer.

 

[KarenRei]

Meh. Go down enough and I'll buy back the upper end of the other call spread I want to roll after deliveries - something I was half-regretting not doing on Friday.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah, clearly there's a high volume bear attack that nullified the big Monday early-trading rise to ~$350, with the focus point possibly the trial which starts early December.

I really think people should be prepared this bear attack to intensify tomorrow and Friday since they'll have even lower volume on the buy side than today and yesterday. At this point I think sub 320 is very likely and possibly sub 310 if macros start retreating . Could see an intra day low of below 300 on Monday during the MMD.

I'm not saying it to be a debbie downer and I'm sure I'll get disagreed. I'm not happy about this people Just seen plenty of evidence with this stock over the years to notice the trends. It's all about resetting the trading ranges before earnings and delivery numbers.

Lord when we get SP inclusion I'll be jumping for joy

 

[Fact Checking]

If they were to start delivering in Q4, wouldn't they have a full quarter's depreciation on GF3? Or would it just be during the time that they were delivering?

Yeah - but if it's really as low as ~$20m per quarter due to the extremely low GF3 capex they cited, it might not be a problem: it's the margin on about 2,000 units to be GAAP break-even?

So if they need a few thousand units more in Q4 they might be going for it.

I suspect they still don't know at this stage, U.S. deliveries have still not started up. So they are keeping all options open.

 

[kengchang]

If they were to start delivering in Q4, wouldn't they have a full quarter's depreciation on GF3? Or would it just be during the time that they were delivering?

If it's a full quarter's depreciation, stockpiling and then starting delivery in January would be a no-brainer.

Shouldn't depreciation should be based on the Expected Tooling Life (Unit) / Unit Made?

 

[Fact Checking]

Shouldn't depreciation should be based on the Expected Tooling Life (Unit) / Unit Made?

A good chunk is, but at least for Fremont there was also a ~$100m fixed depreciation cost per quarter (depreciated in a straight line), which pushed early Model 3's into very negative margins. (This is why Tesla never published early margins, and which is why TSLAQ was touting that for months.)

I believe for GF3 this fixed cost could be as low as $20m-$30m.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

Source on "end of January"?

The latest rumor I've seen is that GF3 deliveries start at the beginning of January - but I suspect there's a few late December deliveries possible too.

最前线 | 国产特斯拉Model 3两个月后交付，车主可提车过年_36氪

The article is in Chinese and it mentioned that the Tesla China said they were trying to start to deliver before Chinese new year (1/25/2020). It seems a little bit more optimistic than what a VP said days ago (she mentioned the end of Jan), but still not Q4.

 

[Alphacrux]

Just picked up another 30 shares on sale.