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If we don’t think about the long term potential of Cybertruck and think only about short term share price, does anyone doubt that we’d be well over $400 today if Tesla had unveiled a more conventional truck design and had 500K+ orders? I think in the short term, Cybertruck allowed shorts to regain control of the narrative....
All I'm seeing is pretty consistent delayed visual acceptance(Hey after a few beers....). But prices and specs sealing the deal. Kind of, 'She ain't the prettiest, but DAMN she's versatile!
Nothing too much for detractors to grab on to.
 
And I’m saying in the short term a more conventional truck design would have kept that going.

P.S: I ordered a Cybertruck. I love it. I’m talking about short term stock price moves.

i guess its possible it would have run to ATH or more in the near term, if more conventional design, i.e conventional manufacturing.
if the gamble pays off, and cost of engineering and producing the CT pans out, long term better.

in terms of how many units sold over time (conventional vs CT)
tough to tell. short term maybe less, long term CT would catch up, as trends change and the late adopters transition as they always do

not as important as 3 or Y on global scale
it would be nice to be able to produce a truck that you could sell 1mm units a year..but we'll see.
 
i guess its possible it would have run to ATH or more in the near term, if more conventional design, i.e conventional manufacturing.
if the gamble pays off, and cost of engineering and producing the CT pans out, long term better.

in terms of how many units sold over time (conventional vs CT)
tough to tell. short term maybe less, long term CT would catch up, as trends change and the late adopters transition as they always do

not as important as 3 or Y on global scale
it would be nice to be able to produce a truck that you could sell 1mm units a year..but we'll see.

This is exactly what I was saying. But for some reason it got a bunch of disagrees. Short term Cybertruck has a negative impact on stock price and stopped the run up. Long term, I think it will be quite the opposite.
 
And I’m saying in the short term a more conventional truck design would have kept that going.

P.S: I ordered a Cybertruck. I love it. I’m talking about short term stock price moves.

I'm invested in TSLA for the long-haul. Early investors who bought in around $20 have already turned $10K into $150K in well under a decade. I think the second decade will be even better.

Elon Musk is a long-term strategist. He's not going to bring out a conventional truck if a revolutionary truck is going to take his company where he wants it to go. The rest is just noise. Including short-term investors who think on a nano-timescale.

Wake up and smell the coffee!
 
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Ford has wussed out of the truck challenge. Even though it was their challenge.

UPDATE: Ford Accepts Tesla Towing Challenge: Asks For Cybertruck For Real Demo

“A senior Ford spokesperson told InsideEVs.com that Madra’s tweet ‘was tongue-in-cheek’ and meant to point out the absurdity of Tesla’s tow video.”
I would prefer a crash derby with Ford, Chevy and that dipshit ramlover69 with his personal truckload of beams against the cold rolled SS of the CT.
 
Perhaps this belongs in the Financial Projections thread but I am posting here because I think it's beneficial for Investors to consider in regards to TSLA stock movement in early January when delivery data is released.

International shipments continue to be jaw-dropping.
upload_2019-11-26_11-26-23.png


There are a lot of caveats here but if loading days are a good indicator of vehicle quantity and ships leaving in the first 2 months of the Qtr get substantially delivered in that quarter, then we can expect to see international shipments increase by a whopping 47% over Q3. The significant increase in Q4 over Q3 came from the first month of the Qtr (22.2 days vs 10.3 days).

Q4 Delivery Projections with various US scenarios:
I have calculated Q4 deliveries assuming international at +47% and with 3 scenarios for the US: Flat. -10%, -20%. This results in Q4 deliveries of 120k, 115k and 110k, respectively.

upload_2019-11-26_11-37-5.png


upload_2019-11-26_11-37-15.png


upload_2019-11-26_11-37-25.png


With so much production directed to international, I feel certain US deliveries will drop but I am feeling very good at this moment that the Q3 surprise will pale in comparison to Q4 especially since I have not factored in anything for GF3 Shanghai deliveries.
Not advice

EDIT: Many thanks to Franco who's developed a nice excel spreadsheet tracking ships out of Pier 80 Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) | Twitter
 
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The CNCDA 3rd quarter report is out for California:

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-19.pdf

Some highlights: The EV share of vehicles sold now stand at 5.5%, The Model 3 is the 3rd best selling vehicle, just missing second cause the Camry sold about 300 more, and Tesla's overall YTD share of the California market is 4.1% versus 1.1% nationally. Thats 58,627 of 1,427,578 vehicles sold.

1 in every 24.35 vehicles sold is a Tesla
1 in every 29.44 vehicles sold is a Model 3

Kind of surprising that hybrids have bumped up given their longer term downward trend. Could be the Corolla and Ionic hybrids are responsible.

EV Share.jpg
EV Share 2.jpg
 
i guess its possible it would have run to ATH or more in the near term, if more conventional design, i.e conventional manufacturing.
I doubt it would be possible because a conventional design would entail conventional costs. So we'd have a $60K base price, and zero fun toys (ATV, camping mode, solar panel). It would have been an almost nothing burger.
 
Q4 Delivery Projections with various US scenarios:
I have calculated Q4 deliveries assuming international at +47% and with 3 scenarios for the US: Flat. -10%, -20%. This results in Q4 deliveries of 120k, 115k and 110k, respectively.

Did you add in a couple thousand, or more, for GF3 deliveries? (I hope they deliver at least some this quarter.)
 
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