Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

425 close, amazing. A solid delivery/financials report, S&P inclusion being likely, and battery investor day should make 2020 a great year.

Happy holidays everyone.

I've got to admit I'm having a bit of anxiety right now. I've suddenly found myself a little too deep into options. Earlier today I kind of made up my mind to start taking profits, but the volume and action on a day like today makes me think we still have more room to run.

You could always close some out and use that money to buy actual shares. Options look really expensive to me (I'm a novice so don't take advice) right now. I sold 2 of my 4 12/27 options today earlier when it looked like sub-420 was likely. I figured I'd decrease my risk a little. Not touching my handful of January and March calls though. Hoping they pay off big time. ​

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla has had multi year delays.

I was addressing Lucid specifically. Even though FF hasn't gone out of business it has been bought out by a Chinese Health Company and founder/CEO pushed out.

correct. I recall Rivian getting praise in at least some commentary for staying in stealth mode working away at their product, rather than having promotional events with prototypes that got delayed for years. that was the context in which this came up.

 

[FutureCTOwner]

From a general lurker, I bought significantly more shares this year (after starting to invest in 2016) and have ridden them down and up with all the other longs here. The forum has helped me keep my decisions informed and grounded. I'm very glad I follow the forum. I'm very thankful for it and for everyone who has helped make it the incredible resource that it is. Happy holidays!

 

[SpaceCash]

When the stock is going up, buying Calls seems easy. It doesn't matter if you are using Margin or not, if the stock crashes like it did from December 2018 to Jun 2019, and you are holding LEAPS, you will get killed. I lost $500,000 in Jan 2020 LEAPS with that drop. Luckily, I was smart AND LUCKY and sold stock around 200 and bought 2021 LEAPS which went up and erased my 2020 LEAPS losses. I can't tell you how painful that drop was. In the future, I will only buy LEAPS after a massive drop like we had 6 months ago. I will NEVER buy them again near an ATH. Sure, the stock might go up, but if macros turn against you, or Tesla has some setbacks, the SP will drop and you will lose big, because the time decay will start to kill you too. Just my 2 cents based on my agony this last year.

Dude it is ALL just semantics and perspective. "NEVER buy them again near an ath" is just your ptsd talking. Just because we are technically at an ATH now does not mean the stock can't jump to 1000 by February. Actually the price action is extremely bullish and some traders wait for moves like this to buy. You gotta go with your gut and wisdom but hard rules such as the ones you have outlined are useless and counterproductive. I am not trying to be a dickhead I just really think your approach is not well founded.

 

[Thumper]

My Solar City is finally green.

 

[traxila]

Thanks for reminding me on the premium and risk again! Really appreciate it. And super happy for you for the $400 call gain and those analysis in your blog paid off!

Yes I am still on the fence. I just bought some 2022 Jan $600 call today but I am totally open to adjust the trading strategy. Some of my situation and thoughts

1. Almost all my investable money is in Tesla. We have enough saving for cost of living and expense.
2. So far the return is good and I am tempted to use the gain to buy options.
3. I worry that by the end of 2020 there will be less Call Option opportunity as more investors get into Tesla and Tesla shows stability in Revenue projection and profitability. (Is it true that if a company is more predictable there will be less market maker marking call options?)
4. 2020 estimate is really strong with 60% revenue growth range.
5. Recession is unlikely in 2020 and trade war being stabilized.

Overall I am thinking using 2022 call to capture the gain in 2020, then roll it to 2023 call after 1 year or take profit when recession risk grows in 2021. What do you think?

About some recent dip or correction:
- I am using average up method to slowly buy options from Jan to Mar.
- At each quarter timespan, I estimate that all quarter report will be strong in 2020. Q1 will be much better than 2019 Q1 due to China and Euro delivery to offset US seasonality. Q2 will be Model Y news and China fully ramp up. Q3 will be model Y half ramp up. Q4 model Y fully ramp up. We will see revenue growth each quarter and Tesla past performance shows when revenue grows in ER the stock goes up.

There is someone all in options and made a lot
$TSLA Daily Investor Discussion - December 23 … - Reddit

And there is TrendTrader007 lost millions

TT007 may have made more money than any of us in the past few months.

But you sound like you have a pretty good handle on this. I will not pretend to give you advice.

Of course, goes with out saying if TSLA corrects for any reason your positions will be mauled.

 

[EV Promoter]

Ihor suggest borrow fees for shorting still at 0,30%.
Can someone elaborate on this? It should'nt start to rise?

 

[MP3Mike]

Ihor suggest borrow fees for shorting still at 0,30%.
Can someone elaborate on this? It should'nt start to rise?

Why around it rise? There are still plenty of shares available to borrow.

 

[M3Rider]

Had a conversation yesterday with a lady in the garage where I park. She was parked nearby and asked if my car was a Tesla.

So, we talked about 10 minutes with me pitching different features as being super convenient and I got to hear the standard set of misconceptions about "5 minute fill up with gas" being faster etc., then she said proudly that Volvo is also planning to make an electric car soon (she had Volvo SUV), so we had to talk about Supercharging, FSD and how much other automakers are behind Tesla...
She said she learned something new.

Anyway, long story short, a lot of people still know nothing about Tesla (although she heard about CT) and seriously think that whatever their favorite OEM is going to give them is going to be just as good...may not even bother to check/compare. We have more educating to do next year.

Merry Christmas everyone!

 

[Maitri982]

I've got to admit I'm having a bit of anxiety right now. I've suddenly found myself a little too deep into options. Earlier today I kind of made up my mind to start taking profits, but the volume and action on a day like today makes me think we still have more room to run.

Good rule in such cases is to sell half of them. Or sell enough to recoup original investment and let the rest ride.

 

[SpaceCash]

Anyone heard from @tivoboy who predicted that “Tesla has a higher chance of going back to $180 than going to $250s” when the stock was siting on $220s?

Like many others that come here with confidence and conviction after getting a couple bearish calls correctly, then poof, they just disappear from thin air. If anyone has his personal contact, please update us on his current state of mind. What he thinks about Q4 deliveries and Model Y? I’m up for a good laugh.

He was always a very obvious shill but a lot of people fall for that "reasonable adult in the room" bs

 

[Cherry Wine]

Merry Christmas / happy holidays to all. And may we all have the happiest ****ing new year ever.

 

[M3Rider]

TT007 may have made more money than any of us in the past few months.

Yep, sounds like he'll make back what he lost with interest.

The point was that high risk can lead not only to high profits, but to high losses too and not all of us may have enough skill and money remaining to recover from it like he did.

 

[Zythryn]

Dude it is ALL just semantics and perspective. "NEVER buy them again near an ath" is just your ptsd talking. Just because we are technically at an ATH now does not mean the stock can't jump to 1000 by February. Actually the price action is extremely bullish and some traders wait for moves like this to buy. You gotta go with your gut and wisdom but hard rules such as the ones you have outlined are useless and counterproductive. I am not trying to be a dickhead I just really think your approach is not well founded.

I bought at an ATH, when TSLA hit $20 and again at $35. Just wish I had bought more

 

[capster]

A solid point.

To add to that, we must also realize this run-up is not the end of the bear case.

There will come a time when the mood on TMC is one of gloom and frustration, since the stock price will have dropped/have been depressed massively by some FUD-stories spinning the facts.

Therefore the above post by @2Pearls is not without truth in the sense that options are really a double-edged sword. They can make or break your bankroll. The deceased Twitter stock guru "Option Sniper" may have turned out to be a fraud, his advice regarding discipline and carefull bankroll management when trading options should be taken seriously.

Not that I want to be a Negative Nancy right now, but let us stay aware that the current state of optimism and elation is only temporary and that the war between Tesla and the short sellers is far from over. They are only regrouping.

Even the slightest doubt cast by Tesla's P&D report or ER will be (mis)used by shorts to depress the stock price. Since we are at ATH, many more than usual are willing to get out now to see if they can get back in.

When that happens, stay long, stay strong. (except if you're holding options )

Also, watch out for the effects of testosterone on yourselves gents and, yes, ladies too. Success boosts testosterone which can increase risk taking behavior. This book looks at trading specifically: The Hour between Dog and Wolf: How Risk Taking Transforms Us, Body and Mind|NOOK Book

Lots of retail and pro shorts were probably affected in this way when the stock kept dropping this past summer. Many are now realizing, in both senses of the word, the consequences.

Also as I noted here some time ago, many of the shorts appear to also be driven by anger. Trading against anger is more profitable, even much more so, than trading against fear (which itself can be very profitable). However, anger can lead to further unpredictable behavior and I don’t suppose the angry shorts are becoming any less angry.

I’m long and don’t use margin or options. If I’ve learned one thing watching TSLA and participating in this forum, it’s this: TSLA can be wildly unpredictable despite Tesla’s steady, exponential progress.

tl;dr: You can be your own worst enemy. There are all manner of sharks in these waters. Perhaps it’s prudent to watch where you go skinny dipping.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Showing my age on this one. Loved these guys in high school. I give you my vote for our new years anthem for 2020. Enjoy

Dan

 

[JustMe]

Had a conversation yesterday with a lady in the garage where I park. She was parked nearby and asked if my car was a Tesla.

So, we talked about 10 minutes with me pitching different features as being super convenient...
She said she learned something new.

Anyway, long story short, a lot of people still know nothing about Tesla (although she heard about CT) and seriously think that whatever their favorite OEM is going to give them is going to be just as good...may not even bother to check/compare. We have more educating to do next year.
Merry Christmas everyone!

For sure - And happy customers like you are part of the Tesla extended sales force that has been tripling in size and reach every two years:
2013 Q4: ~ 25,000 Teslas on the road
2015 Q4: 100,000
2017 Q4: 300,000
2019 Q4: 900,000
————————
2021 Q4 2.7 M ?
2023 Q4 8 M ??
2025 Q4 24 M ???
(20 M/ year sales goal reached???)
2027 Q4 72 M
2029 Q4 100 M+

That’s not a prediction- it’s just a pure mathematical extrapolation that does not factor in any of Teslas stated plans or the complex realities that we will encounter. Just serves to illustrate the awesome potential of exponential growth.
... but I can’t help but wonder if EM has done this back of the envelope type of extrapolation and muttered to himself casually “should be doable”

Merry Christmas & Happy Festivus!

 

[capster]

To anyone who has been short and who is considering ending their life: Please don’t.

I can tell you from personal experience, the damage suicide does to your loved ones is far greater than you can imagine: They will not be better off without you.

Reach out to them, to your doctor or to a suicide hotline. Please.

 

[NakedLong]

But this is still not robotaxi capable. And while it might seem like a small leap, even if they get approval for unsupervised the currently demonstrated features are nowhere near robust enough for a fully autonomous service, like a robotaxi. That is, it could end up achieving sufficient safety, but be unable to reach a destination.

Now lets talk about sensors and weather. Recent trip I was on autopilot cut in and out somewhat counterintuitive to the weather being experienced. It would be fine in heavy rain, then fail when it let up. The reason is simple and obvious if you review camera footage. What happens is that when the rain let up droplets obscured the cameras and it makes a kaleidoscope look like a clean view of the surroundings. The car can't see anything and there's mechanism to clear the sensors. Front facing cameras just aren't enough: you have to see beside and behind in order to drive.

Unsupervised and robotaxi are synonymous afaic, so if Elon said end of 2020 for unsupervised then that is technically good enough for a robotaxi and just needs regulatory approval (I didn't remember his saying that though). I think they can have robotaxis which are geofenced and gradually roll them out as they are confident in them. Their approach has been incremental and will continue to be, even as the first robotaxis go into operation. So like you said, some rural roads might be really narrow and have to kind of communicate with oncoming traffic who to go first, which might be very difficult for a robotaxi to solve, but I don't see these rare situations stopping the general rollout. They only have to solve 99.9999% of cases, and just fail as gracefully as possible with human assistance on hand somewhere.

As for your sensor concern, it was asked to Elon at one point and he did not share the concern. His reply was that a water repellent coating would suffice. Interested to know if people have tried coating their lenses. Not sure about sleet or rarer weather conditions, but rare weather conditions do not stop robotaxis from operating on the whole.

One other point about robotaxis and FSD is that there is a positive feedback advantage for the first mover. Data is the key to training, and the first company (ie Tesla) to create a FSD fleet will sell more robotaxis thanks to better trained software from the data, leading to more data and more robotaxis in a circle.

More data -> more robotaxi sales -> more data

The other point about robotaxis is that the initial robotaxis might seem subhuman in many situations still, and superhuman in others. There will be a lot of room for improvement over the 1st gen robotaxis, meaning the data advantage 2-3 years after the first robotaxis appear will still be a competitive advantage for Tesla. For these snowball reasons the robotaxi market might be a monopoly owned by Tesla. ARK also said it was a winner takes all market, but I'm not sure what their reasoning was for saying that.

I think there are other less strong feedback loops in EVs.

Tesla produces the best EVs -> more sales/attract best talent/reduce cost from scaling -> even better EVs.

 

[Green Pete]

is I just upgraded to 50.40.1 and noticed this in my inbox. Does this mean another big update is coming next week? I'm super
confused.