Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

Why would they start deliveries - and the relevant amortisation expense - with one day left in the quarter? It just doesn't make any sense to ding the quarterly margins that way. This is especially true now that Tesla has secured a new loan in China so that production assets can be financed and not lead to a poor cash position.

They must either have a blowout quarter secured, or have some other contractual obligation that is favourable to deliver this year.

I think Tesla made up for those losses when they sold the power upgrade for the Model 3... or at least enough to make it a non-event. Practically nothing went into writing the software, lots of profit. I don't recall what was posted about the losses for the quarter if they starting selling MIC3s.

 

[jbcarioca]

I always have this UK corporate car incentive question. We know starting april.1 there is a yearly tax incentive. Does this apply to car bought on Jan, 2020? For example, for a car bought on Jan,1. The first three month uses old tax rate. But starting april,1, will this car enjoy the reduced tax rate?

Company car tax guide 2019/2020: everything you need to know
That has everything you need to know. It also clarifies one point that confuses many people. That is that as of 6 April 2020 the tax tables change. However, BEV's are zero before and after that date. Thus the March new number plate will drive the first huge rush of tax free company cars. Of course the September new number plates will produce another rush, but by that time the impact of zero tax on PIK will have been pretty well established.

Thus our obsession with March, even though there will be impact beginning earlier it will not have teh same consequence as will the March rush and later September one.

I hope that helps. OT FWIW, personalized plates don't have this scheme. My own Ferrari 308 GT4 was DUL 8V which provided almost endless humor. Only it's brown colour was DUL.

 

[lklundin]

China’s level of execution has been unreal. Clear goals by China, Tesla, and Elon Musk have cleared the way for this.

Hopefully Germany takes note. Europe scares me.

But we (Tesla) scare Europe and especially Germany more...

An anecdote on the topic of terrible service (in Denmark) on a German BEV:

A friend of mine drives a BMW i3 since several years. It has become to most driven vehicle of the family (of three drivers). One day his spouse calls him because the i3 is stuck in the driveway with a charging cable that cannot be unlocked. My friend calls the local BMW dealer and service center, who simply instruct him to "bring the car in" and insisting on this after my friend details the problem, something that would entail cutting the charging cable (after shutting power down from inside the house) and having it trucked over there - after which BMW would naturally write a bill - and my friend would need a new charging cable.

My friend googles the problem and learns that after typically 60k km the actuator in the i3 that unlocks the charging cable typically fails and also that the trunk has a mechanical emergency cable release. So he releases his charging cable, orders the actuator and has a non-BMW garage replace it for him. Not even the presence of the emergency cable release was something BMW would (or could) volunteer over the phone, although the problem would fall in the category of road-side service urgently needed.

My friend now makes a point of telling his appalling BMW-story to apparently everyone.

 

[S3XY]

I think Tesla ought to buy a 30-second commercial slot during the Super Bowl. It opens to show an array of Tesla vehicles in a clean, tidy industrial space, facing the camera. Left to right, Cybertruck, Model S, Model 3, Model X, Roadster 2.0, Model Y, and Semi. In the foreground is a comfy brown leather chair. EMusk is lounging in it, looking supremely relaxed. The camera closes on him, and he says: "We don't need to advertise." Cut to black, show Tesla logo, followed by: tesla.com.

It would be funny and ironic in the extreme. Perfect for the Super Bowl. And then, don't buy any more advertising.

I'm envisioning this 2021 Superbowl commercial. It will only be 15 seconds long. Start with a closeup view of the front of a Ford F150 and slowly pan out to reveal the F250 next to it and then the F350 and F450 next that. (Deep truck voice says) "Ford has been the top selling truck for 43 years in a row." (Keep panning back). "But there's a new kid in town." "The Tesla Cybertruck." (Queue the Cybertruck as it drives over the top of all 4 Fords and crushes them). Fade to black..

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

"I'll cover when it dips."

 

[scaesare]

I think Tesla ought to buy a 30-second commercial slot during the Super Bowl. It opens to show an array of Tesla vehicles in a clean, tidy industrial space, facing the camera. Left to right, Cybertruck, Model S, Model 3, Model X, Roadster 2.0, Model Y, and Semi. In the foreground is a comfy brown leather chair. EMusk is lounging in it, looking supremely relaxed. The camera closes on him, and he says: "We don't need to advertise." Cut to black, show Tesla logo, followed by: tesla.com.

It would be funny and ironic in the extreme. Perfect for the Super Bowl. And then, don't buy any more advertising.

If so, they are practically obligated to include fine print at the bottom of the screen that says "Not-a-commercial"

 

[Tim S]

Should we incorporate the following email from Jerome in Q4 production estimates? -


Guillen sent an email to employees in which he said that he couldn’t “be too specific”, but Tesla is working on raising output (via Bloomberg):

"The company is “making preparations” to raise output at its auto plant in Fremont, California, Tesla’s automotive president, Jerome Guillen, said in an email to employees on Tuesday. “While we can’t be too specific in this email, I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments."
Source: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Please note that story and quote is from July.

 

[Fact Checking]

Therefore it is necessary to jettison emotional baggage that works against those goals.

I'll be the first to admit that human emotion is an investor's worst enemy and that it is very difficult if not impossible for most people to fully divest oneself of them entirely. But the difficulty is not a good excuse to not try.

This is how I see it: emotional strength in investment is a valuable resource that has to be managed and protected actively.

In certain situations it can help a lot to convert a position to a "house money bet".

In the specific options trading case I replied to, where the steadfast Tesla investor (@PlaidCPA) sat through FUD storms and bear attacks, to arrive at a +2,000% gain, and expressed anxiety about this gain and asked for non-advice, to me it's a no-brainer to invest ~200% of those gains into a more stable, more resilient emotional state, and continue with a +1,800% gain as a "free" house money bet.

But everyone is different - which is why I gave this as an optional strategy.

 

[lklundin]

GF3 construction has set a bar. If it takes significantly longer to build GF4, it will make Germany look bad.

There’s going to be a lot of German pride on the line in 2020 to transform that forest into a factory.

Realistically, I think the question is:

How much extra time will the Germans need to get GF4 ready compared to the Chinese and GF3?

Even with the GF3 blueprints on hand I am guessing at least 4(*) months and hope for at most 12...

(*) Unlike GF3, the GF4 site has to be cleared of its pine plantation (presumably incl. roots) and checked for WW2 ordnance, that's gotta take at least a month.

 

[Papafox]

Referring to page 326 of the "Short-sellers Guide to Dirty Tricks," it says that on Friday options expirations such as today, the way to combat pre-market enthusiasm is with a mandatory morning dip, followed by a spirited game of "whack-the-mole." Unfortunately, on Friday afternoons crafty traders are likely to bid the stock price up into close as they prepare for Monday morning buying exuberance.

 

[GBleck]

I'm envisioning this 2021 Superbowl commercial. It will only be 15 seconds long. Start with a closeup view of the front of a Ford F150 and slowly pan out to reveal the F250 next to it and then the F350 and F450 next that. (Deep truck voice says) "Ford has been the top selling truck for 43 years in a row." (Keep panning back). "But there's a new kid in town." "The Tesla Cybertruck." (Queue the Cybertruck as it drives over the top of all 4 Fords and crushes them). Fade to black..

meh

 

[scaesare]

OT - tank turns...

Rivian “Tank Turn” confirmed for R1T and R1S in surprise video

I really like the idea of Tesla moving to 4 motors - it will presumably happen in the next 5 or so years. Reasons why Tesla won't implement 4 motors just to get tank turns:

2 issues with tank turns:
1) Can't be good for tire wear on streets
2) Good chance it will be illegal on the streets given that unusual manoeuvres could catch out other drivers.

What we really need is spherical wheels.

Or 4-wheel independent steering.

 

[ggr]

The volume today (and all week) is insane given that it's a major holiday week. This seems to be making it tough for the shorts. As @Papafox said, we got not one but two MMDs, at 10am and 10:30am (EST), and capping at last night's close. I am hopeful that they will run out of steam and the price will recover to green this afternoon.

 

[MarcoRP]

China’s 1st V3 Supercharger seems to be open! It is located at an existing location, in Shanghai - Jinqiao.

Tesla China on Twitter
Screenshots from video:

 

[woodisgood]

Elevator going up?

 

[StealthP3D]

This is how I see it: emotional strength in investment is a valuable resource that has to be managed and protected actively.

In certain situations it can help a lot to convert a position to a "house money bet".

In the specific options trading case I replied to, where the steadfast Tesla investor (@PlaidCPA) sat through FUD storms and bear attacks, to arrive at a +2,000% gain, and expressed anxiety about this gain and asked for non-advice, to me it's a no-brainer to invest ~200% of those gains into a more stable, more resilient emotional state, and continue with a +1,800% gain as a "free" house money bet.

But everyone is different - which is why I gave this as an optional strategy.

Yes, and I didn't say your advice was bad because I recognize every personal situation is different for the reasons you mentioned.

But I don't agree that there is ever "house money". A position is always worth what it's worth. And it's your money, not house money. I understand what you are saying, I just don't think that's a healthy way to look at it. If an investor has too much on the line, they should take some off the table, particularly if they are worried it will go down and not recover for a long time.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm sticking by my prediction of close at just under 436. I have 2 calls expiring today and my plan is to sell them when we get back to 435.

I've seen stranger things happen! Good luck!

 

[Joe F]

Cathie Wood on CNBC - up next after commercials.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT - tank turns...

Rivian “Tank Turn” confirmed for R1T and R1S in surprise video

I really like the idea of Tesla moving to 4 motors - it will presumably happen in the next 5 or so years. Reasons why Tesla won't implement 4 motors just to get tank turns:

2 issues with tank turns:
1) Can't be good for tire wear on streets
2) Good chance it will be illegal on the streets given that unusual manoeuvres could catch out other drivers.

What we really need is spherical wheels.

You don’t need 4 motors to tank turn. Tesla already has software that changes power to individual tires - called traction control.

 

[M3Rider]

I have purchased 850c for the purpose of observing the insanity.

Not actually sure I really want to hold it.