Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

In this case they could be investigating if NoA malfunctioned. If NoA exited the freeway and didn't slow down/stop at the end of the exit it could have contributed to the problem.

But of course the driver was responsible as AP is a driver aid not a driver replacement until FSD is released and approved to be a independent driver.

@️ELECTROMAN️ @printf42 @mars_or_bust What part of that you disagree with? That the driver is fully responsible or that the NHTSA is likely going to be investigating how AP/NoA contributed to this collision? (Surely you can't think they are just investigating why somebody ran a red light and hit another car do you?)

 

[Christine69420]

I heard from the oh so reliable TSLAQ crowd long ago if we switched over to EVs there would be no way to charge them all and we would be experiencing blackouts all over the place.... Why have I not heard about this in Norway?

Someone did the math. The electricity capacity did not need to increase much at all. So yeah - another piece of FUD. My source got lost in facebook a long time ago.

One of the points were that everybody cooking dinner at the same time need much more capacity. And we do that every day. EV charging is not intensive. It's a lowish amount of watts spread out over many hours and much of it at night.


Edit: Found one source: Kveler ikke strømnettet

The Directorate for Waterfalls and Power calculated that with 50% of all cars were EVs we would use about 3% of the total capacity to charge. No problem. And if/when all cars are EVs it would still be no problem. The average household would use 20% more electricity to charge their cars.

 

[jerry33]

And yes, it most definitely is. The market sizes of Apple's consumer products and all of Tesla's business are in completely different leagues. The world spends WAY more on transportation than on smartphones, laptops, etc.

That's true for most. I believe my expenditures have been about equal.

 

[Steve m]

That's true for most. I believe my expenditures have been about equal.

I might have spent more on Vintage saxophones then ether transportation or electronics.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder if there is really any people who do their investing based on those analysts report, including traders from their own bank. I know people becoming analysts on Wall Street directly out of graduate school. They do focus on their field of studies but have zero industrial experience.

I don't know anyone who trades based upon analyst reports from brokerages unless they use them as contrarian indicators as I do (when I'm not completely ignoring them). There is a reason why brokerages hire analysts and then publically release their reports to all market participants.

Free Hint: It's because they have made such an incredible amount of wealth by following their amazingly intelligent and insightful analysts that they are feeling so extraordinarily generous they want to spread the wealth around to other market participants. I mean, it would be selfish and unsportsmanlike to keep the insights of their revered analysts only to themselves and their direct clients. That would be selfish. They are upstanding members of the community and sharing equally is one of their most cherished ideals. Greed and selfishness have no place on Wall Street!

 

[Electroman]

Autopilot doesn't do red lights or stop signs yet. It merely recognizes that they are there. So what they'll actually be investigating is the actions(or inaction) of the human operator.

Then where is the need for NHTSA to investigate anything when a human makes an error like this, which is not too uncommon?

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla meets it's yearly guidance (or comes slightly below) of 360K, the drop in deliveries in 2020 Q1 will be ignored as seasonality.

Lol, what drop in 2020Q1 Deliveries? GF3/Shanghai will add 20K deliveries alone, and there will be no 'Euro pause' in the pipeline. I look for 2020Q1 deliveries to be comparable or slightly above 2019Q4.

Cheers!

 

[Ggusev]

Pulled the trigger for long range model X

Joining the club in mid Feb \

P.S most important I suddenly figured out the way to buy my dream car for stock gains while not selling!
I was torn apart between desire to take profit or keep holding TSLA, and for sure I'm not ready to sell whole stash: there's so much interesting breakthroughs to happen yet.

then simple and clear insight just popped in my head: this is easy and sat in front of my eyes all this time!
I just took 96 months loan, to cover which I only need to sell 2-3 shares each month and keep the rest for next 8 years.

 

[UncaNed]

I sure hope NHSTA doesn't put the kibosh on we human driving systems, just because of a few(million) accidents.

How could they justify not doing so as soon as there's a reliable alternative?

 

[Rashomon]

Thanks Peter!

And yes, it most definitely is. The market sizes of Apple's consumer products and all of Tesla's business are in completely different leagues. The world spends WAY more on transportation than on smartphones, laptops, etc.

You need to be careful in calculating market size. The auto/light truck market in the US is about 17m units with an average transaction price of about $35k. Apple sells about 220m iPhones a year at about $700 apiece. The iPhone market is 25 percent the size of the US auto market. Considering Apple’s margins are about a factor of 4 larger than auto margins (other than Porsche or Tesla), Apple makes as much on IPhone sales as the entire profit in the US market on light vehicles — and iPhone is only half of Apple’s revenue.

 

[thait84]

Pulled the trigger for long range model X

Joining the club in mid Feb \

P.S most important I suddenly figured out the way to buy my dream car for stock gains while not selling!
I was torn apart between desire to take profit or keep holding TSLA, and for sure I'm not ready to sell whole stash: there's so much interesting breakthroughs to happen yet.

then simple and clear insight just popped in my head: this is easy and sat in front of my eyes all this time!
I just took 96 months loan, to cover which I only need to sell 2-3 shares each month and keep the rest for next 8 years.

Congrats! What kind of rate did you get?

 

[PeterJA]

The world spends WAY more on transportation than on smartphones, laptops, etc.

You need to be careful in calculating market size. The auto/light truck market in the US is about 17m units with an average transaction price of about $35k.

You need to read Frank's work before telling him what he needs to do. He said "transportation" not "auto/light truck market."

My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

 

[MichaelP90DL]

If you’re short you are in a ton of trouble. You can cover your position now, or play the “how many cars did Tesla deliver?” Game. There’s belief that if the Q4 delivery numbers allow Tesla to meet guidance that the real short squeeze will take place. This could send the shares soaring as again.

If you’re long on TSLA then the delivery numbers/guidance really don’t mean a whole lot. If they come up short and the stock drops it’s not the same dagger shorts face. We knew after Q1 and Q2 this year that there was too much on the horizon to keep Tesla down. Many trusted the process and it’s paid off. Every year there’s more to look forward to. I doubt things continue to roll along perfectly but I’m confident we will get where we want to go.

Who doesn't like to see those guys get a dagger in the shorts?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does not look good for 2020:

/S

Cheers!

 

[Ggusev]

What kind of rate did you get

3.9% <-- I think there is a very good chance TSLA growth in 8 years will beat that

 

[RobStark]

Elon hanging out with the Cool Kids.

 

[Ggusev]

Elon hanging out with the Cool Kids.

I think you understood it wrong. bunch of barely known CoolKids(tm) are hanging out with superstar. /s

 

[jw934]

Pulled the trigger for long range model X

Joining the club in mid Feb \

P.S most important I suddenly figured out the way to buy my dream car for stock gains while not selling!
I was torn apart between desire to take profit or keep holding TSLA, and for sure I'm not ready to sell whole stash: there's so much interesting breakthroughs to happen yet.

then simple and clear insight just popped in my head: this is easy and sat in front of my eyes all this time!
I just took 96 months loan, to cover which I only need to sell 2-3 shares each month and keep the rest for next 8 years.

Depending on one's tax situation and interest rate differences, it might be more worthwhile to sell enough shares to buy the X, if for non-tax-deductible use, then borrow the funds to buy back shares so to claim the interest charges as tax deductible amounts.

 

[FrankSG]

You need to be careful in calculating market size. The auto/light truck market in the US is about 17m units with an average transaction price of about $35k. Apple sells about 220m iPhones a year at about $700 apiece. The iPhone market is 25 percent the size of the US auto market. Considering Apple’s margins are about a factor of 4 larger than auto margins (other than Porsche or Tesla), Apple makes as much on IPhone sales as the entire profit in the US market on light vehicles — and iPhone is only half of Apple’s revenue.

You're right, but by transportation I didn't mean just vehicle sales. Worldwide transportation market also includes air/sea transportation, public transportation, Uber, Lyft, DHL, etc.

Even if the case of Tesla, transportation is more than just their vehicle sales, and includes autonomy and future robotaxi opportunities.

 

[gerebgraus]

Tesla has always been very "matter of fact" and understated when they speak of future battery technologies so I tend to take what they say very much as gospel. And I don't think I'm wrong or blind to think that.

The mainstream media has been somewhat successful in their attempts to pin Musk with a reputation for over-hyping but I don't see there is any substance to these claims with the sole exception of AutoPilot and FSD timelines. Yes, some of their new Models are a few months later than projected but, given the excellence of the products they have delivered, I see the lateness as being simply amazing instead of unbelievably amazing. There was also the $420 tweet but I think he was sincere in his wish to take TSLA private and he wanted it so bad he didn't think he was thinking too big. But the MSM has painted Musk as a shyster, huckster, hypester who will say outrageous things just to pump the company. The only thing I find outrageous is he typically delivers on these promises. It's actually amazing when you stop and think about it.

So I'm looking forward to the Battery Investor Day as being very informative as to where they are going with batteries.

I think Musk has started to separate the aspirational goals announced internally from the now much more modest publicly announced goa. So now he can beat those public goals making the market happy.