Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

The Tesla Cybertruck: What Do Americans Think Of It? - Piplsay

Demand for 1 million cybertrucks per year secured.

 

[Drumheller]

(Regarding average temperatures) "The Soaring Twenties"?

The fires in Australia are terrible. The smoke is creating air quality and visibility issues in New Zealand, 1200 to 1500 miles away. It's a huge deal and should be getting more coverage and assistance

 

[M3Rider]

Tesla will be hard-pressed to match or exceed Q4's sales since in the USA everyone was going absolutely nuts to get their $1,875 Federal IRS Tax Credit which is no more here.

I disagree with above.
Will be buying $52k Y and I think $1,875 is irrelevant to the decision, not going nuts about it. Ok, maybe since Q1 is M3 only, the credit has more weight than Q2, still it is not 7.5k and whomever's got their old ice break down on them won't care much. I also think non-US sales have more weight, since other govts care about climate change more than trump, so inventives there carry more weight.

 

[Carl Raymond]

View attachment 495487


The fires in Australia are terrible. The smoke is creating air quality and visibility issues in New Zealand, 1200 to 1500 miles away. It's a huge deal and should be getting more coverage and assistance

Every day I check the Guardian to see if either Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister or Anthony Albanese, leader of the opposition, is prepared to acknowledge the problem (greenhouse emissions), or address the problem. Every day, disappointment. They both refuse to acknowledge the climate crisis.

Please don’t pity us. Point the finger at our inaction and denialism. It will be more useful.

 

[engle]

I thought there is also the "seasonality" effect whereby people in cold winter climates tend not to purchase new vehicles then?

I disagree with above.
Will be buying $52k Y and I think $1,875 is irrelevant to the decision, not going nuts about it. Ok, maybe since Q1 is M3 only, the credit has more weight than Q2, still it is not 7.5k and whomever's got their old ice break down on them won't care much. I also think non-US sales have more weight, since other govts care about climate change more than trump, so icventives there carry more weight.

Agree Euro sales carry increased weight due to climate change rules, and obviously in China with the GF4 ramp, too. IMHO it is awesome that TSLA is siting the next GF near Berlin. Teslas will be manufactured there not before too long by Germans so there will be "Made in Germany" Teslas for Europeans to purchase and feel good about German factory jobs. (Mostly Kuka robot jobs! :)

There are also people like me with a $2,500 Model Y pro-order who may just opt to skip it in favor of an urban anarchy survival #Cybertruck since one of my garage spaces is 248 inches long.

 

[Tslynk67]

Charles Gasparino? When did he flip?
FOX Business use to trot him out and he never said anything good about Tesla.
what he did say was usually poorly researched, headline stuff.
Wow...

I'm not sure he's flipped, at least not to the same extent as Cramer, but about a year ago he was being trolled heavily by $TSLAQ on Twitter, which opened his eyes a bit and he started mocking them a lot.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$420.27 in early trading at Frankfurt:

375.00 EUR Jan. 2, 9:03 a.m. GMT+1​

Meanwhile, macros are up substantially:

NASDAQ-100 Futures:
8,800.88 +48.63 +0.56%
03:14:48 - Real-time derived data.
Currency in USD​

Cheers!

P.S. Eight'ers gonna Eight? lol NASDAQ

 

[KarenRei]

The Tesla Cybertruck: What Do Americans Think Of It? - Piplsay

Among the worst presentation of polling data and methodologies I've ever seen :Þ They put all their effort on being cutsie and didn't bother even making it clear what the actual questions and answers were. Who is this "Piplsay"?

 

[JustMe]

News on GF3 deliveries—>

Breaking: Mass Tesla MIC Model 3 Deliveries to Begin on 1Yr Anniversary of Gigafactory 3’s Groundbreaking Ceremony

Customer delivery event at GF3 on Jan 7, the 1 year anniversary of groundbreaking. Now we know why that huge parking lot was left full of shiny new MIC Model 3s

 

[engle]

$420.27 in early trading at Frankfurt:

375.00 EUR Jan. 2, 9:03 a.m. GMT+1​

1/2/2020 is the only day since 2011 I personally want it to close DOWN bigtime since I think my 12/31/2019 401k-to-Roth IRA conversion (taxable to tax-free) will be "priced" today instead of at $418.33. I will pay ordinary income taxes on ### shares * price now, so future gains will be all tax-free in the future.

It will be offset in part by some full EV IRS US federal tax credits I rolled forward in my business. So credits for some Teslas I bought will pay taxes on part of my rollover. Sweet. (Of course, I am a moron for not doing this conversion in the low $200's during the summer of 2019! I could have converted all my #### 401k TSLA back then!)

I know from my time at Tesla Fremont Factory on 12/31/2019 and other reports TSLA left quite a few vehicles unsold. That may drive down today's price if the P + S report comes out before the market opens. Time will tell. Does anyone recall exactly when the 2018 Q4 report was released?

Am also hoping to read more dumb analists(sic) issue their silly reports to drive the price down for no reason today other than to maintain high volatility for the traders!

 

[Singer3000]

I can’t friggin wait for Battery Day.

News on GF3 deliveries—>

Breaking: Mass Tesla MIC Model 3 Deliveries to Begin on 1Yr Anniversary of Gigafactory 3’s Groundbreaking Ceremony

Customer delivery event at GF3 on Jan 7, the 1 year anniversary of groundbreaking. Now we know why that huge parking lot was left full of shiny new MIC Model 3s

A bit of pent up MIC inventory and say a Jan-Feb average of 1000 a week, increasing in March. 15k - 20k deliveries looks pretty doable from Shanghai in Q1 doesnt it?

How does this compare with the demand pull forward in US and NL in Q4? Not saying that quarterly sequential growth is gonna happen but hopefully break even will, even without the FSD and Fiat boxes of tricks.

 

[SebastianR]

I can’t friggin wait for Battery Day.

A bit of pent up MIC inventory and say a Jan-Feb average of 1000 a week, increasing in March. 15k - 20k deliveries looks pretty doable from Shanghai in Q1 doesnt it?

How does this compare with the demand pull forward in US and NL in Q4? Not saying that quarterly sequential growth is gonna happen but hopefully break even will be, even without the FSD and Fiat boxes of tricks.

Not sure how quickly and not sure how much. But expect more contributions from Germany in Q1 (the new 6.000 Euro benefits will come into effect). I also think that other countries like Denmark will continue to grow - I know from friends that NL has been sucking all of Europe's cars over the past months and I expect a fair deal of catching up from these markets now that NL will leave more cars to others.
Having said this: I'm aware of seasonality of car purchases and I expect the next real jump in orders in spring/early summer for Europe.

 

[kengchang]

Taiwan Market : 1041 Model 3 delivered in December, no breakdown yet

 

[Singer3000]

Not sure how quickly and not sure how much. But expect more contributions from Germany in Q1 (the new 6.000 Euro benefits will come into effect). I also think that other countries like Denmark will continue to grow - I know from friends that NL has been sucking all of Europe's cars over the past months and I expect a fair deal of catching up from these markets now that NL will leave more cars to others.
Having said this: I'm aware of seasonality of car purchases and I expect the next real jump in orders in spring/early summer for Europe.

Q1 2019 caught us all with our trousers down, hence we’re all a little wary about what might happen this year. Feels to me there are decent signals it will be a profitable quarter despite the seasonality and tax credit headwinds.

 

[Artful Dodger]

1/2/2020 is the only day since 2011 I personally want it to close DOWN bigtime since I think my 12/31/2019 401k-to-Roth IRA conversion (taxable to tax-free) will be "priced" today

Hmm, that might be part of the explanation for last year's first trading day action: (2019-01-02)

EDIT: NASDAQ now reporting data for Pre-market trading in TSLA :

Pre-Market Low:
$419.52
04:00:35 AM

Pre-Market High:
$423.27
04:06:59 AM​

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

According to their rep, Fidelity Investments just re-assigns the same shares in street name from my 401k to one of my Roth IRAs nothing is sold or bought on the open market. The "pricing" is for the 1099 form I will receive from documenting the ordinary income (not cap gains like if it was in a non-retirement account) for this.

Lol, don't know much about US tax structured accounts. I hold all my TSLA in a Canadian TFSA so I don't have to make any moves based on considerations like those.

Yup, good ol' Canada, where Health Care is free, but a gallon of milk costs $5...

Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

I see you're still commenting without reading Frank's work, which I've linked twice.

I have read it all. He makes a few very good points. However his basic premise is, frankly, absurd. No company ever has a monopoly in anything without government mandate prohibiting competition. The closest one comes is large commercial aircraft. Even there two large companies battle fiercely for ever sale and both are more systems integrators than pure manufacturers so there are hundreds of major suppliers. A few major components of those have only three or four major suppliers (e.g. engines, brakes, pitot tubes).

with automobiles, solar panels, li-ion storage batteries there has never been a monopoly provider. Even Ford ca 1915 was nowhere approaching a monopoly.

Frank loses credibility by adopting such an obvious flawed premise. Nearly all his work was useful data aggregation with superficial analysis.

That said I thought it was useful data aggregation. Nothing more.

 

[Joe F]

The Tesla Cybertruck: What Do Americans Think Of It? - Piplsay

What do 329 million people in the United States say about Piplsay: What’s Piplsay, and why would I care what others say, especially when it’s so far down in the noise it doesn’t register?

 

[engle]

Piplsay is a joke based out of Gurgaon, Haryana, India

See this from crunchbase: (CB Rank 236,891)

PiplSay | Crunchbase

and PiplSay (FB)

Obviously based upon the article the writer knows almost nothing about the Cybertruck!

Perhaps they were paid-off by part of the "conspiracy theory" of entities that want TSLAQ.

"Website www.piplsay.comContact Email [email protected]

PiplSay levels the e-commerce playing field by enriching small sites with product opinions and reviews.

Their technology enables retailers, regardless of size, to provide their customers with relevant opinions of real people on their products, and provide customer experience that previously only big players could provide."

Let's ignore them and move on... (Fake news haha)

What do 329 million people in the United States say about Piplsay: What’s Piplsay, and why would I care what others say, especially when it’s so far down in the noise it doesn’t register?

 

[EVMeister]

What do 329 million people in the United States say about Piplsay: What’s Piplsay, and why would I care what others say, especially when it’s so far down in the noise it doesn’t register?

I'll tell you what Google thinks about Piplsay:

"Did you mean: piplay"