Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bobfitz1]

It's amazing the way Tesla brings out the "can do" spirit in so many companies not even in the automotive space. They all want to have Tesla-like products. Sadly, this one will never hit the road.

Can you imagine:
"So, what kind of car do you drive?"

"A Sony DriveMan, man"

 

[Cult Member]

EUR 420 today?

 

[KarenRei]

Nah. You clearly missed much of the recent run and have obliquely admitted so "why are you making me roll my call spreads hurrdurr", which has in turn clearly altered the tone of all your postings to slightly indignant, pseudo bearishness.
We are not dumb.

Sorry to reply a second time to this, but since it's clear that some people here don't understand options, and this is an investment thread, where people really should understand options, some Options 101:

• Owning calls is a bullish strategy, which increases your leverage over owning stock.
• Owning call spreads isn't as bullish of a strategy as owning pure calls, but it's still almost always more bullish than stock, usually significantly.
• Rolling calls or call spreads due to a rising stock price means that you've already profited significantly on them, but the rate at which you'll profit on them will decline if the stock keeps going up (e.g. they'll progressively become less and less bullish).
• The act of rolling spreads up, by contrast, means that you think the stock is going to keep going up.
• The fact that a person makes a "Work, work, work" joke (with a grinning face) about "having" to roll call spreads means that they're celebrating profiting off of a SP increase.
  
• Rolling spreads up yields some profit. You can either reinvest that profit into more spreads, into stock, keep it as cash, or use for other investments. I do a mix of stock buying and spread buying.
• What matters at any given point of time is your overall leverage. The higher the leverage, the more bullish a person is being. I was ~20% in stock / ~80% in calls spreads (very bullish) at one point earlier, but I'm now down to (last I checked) 37% stock / 63% spreads. This is still a far more bullish position than a person who's purely in stock. Just not as extreme as earlier.
• Saying "buy and hold" and calling someone a bear, when said person is in a far more bullish position than you, because you think they're "missing the run", is ridiculous. A person who is in options may vary their leverage (indeed, that happens automatically), but so long as their leverage is greater than 1:1, you're the bear by comparison.

I hope that everyone understands this.

 

[SpaceCash]

Sorry to reply a second time to this, but since it's clear that some people here don't understand options, and this is an investment thread, where people really should understand options, some Options 101:

• Owning calls is a bullish strategy, which increases your leverage over owning stock.
• Owning call spreads isn't as bullish of a strategy as owning pure calls, but it's still more bullish than stock.
• Rolling calls or call spreads due to a rising stock price means that you've already profited significantly on them, but the rate at which you'll profit on them will decline if the stock keeps going up (e.g. they'll progressively become less and less bullish).
• The act of rolling spreads up, by contrast, means that you think the stock is going to keep going up.
• Rolling spreads up yields some profit. You can either reinvest that profit into more spreads, into stock, keep it as cash, or use for other investments. I do a mix of stock buying and spread buying.
• What matters at any given point of time is your overall leverage. The higher the leverage, the more bullish a person is being. I was ~20% in stock / ~80% in calls spreads (very bullish) at one point earlier, but I'm now down to (last I checked) 37% stock / 63% spreads. This is still a far more bullish position than a person who's purely in stock. Just not as extreme as earlier.
• Saying "buy and hold" and calling someone a bear, when said person is in a far more bullish position than you, because you think they're "missing the rise", is ridiculous. A person who is in options may vary their leverage, but so long as their leverage is greater than 1:1, you're the bear by comparison.

I hope that everyone understands this.

Karen, stop.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen, stop.

Do you now understand the fact that call spreads are bullish, and that rolling them because of a SP rise means that you've profited off of them? Because you marked my previous post that pointed this out "disagree".

And if you understand this now, and understand your error, do you have any plans to apologize for referring to me as a bear because of your misunderstanding?

 

[SpaceCash]

Do you now understand the fact that call spreads are bullish, and that rolling them because of a SP rise means that you've profited off of them? Because you marked my previous post that pointed this out "disagree".

And if you understand this now, and understand your error, do you have any plans to apologize for referring to me as a bear because of your misunderstanding?

Karen you're on tilt. Stop asserting the preposterous and just take some deep breaths.

You are being extremely defensive and are both mis quoting me AND putting words in my mouth.

Obviously I touched a nerve.
I'll be putting you on ignore temporarily.

Cheers, honestly.

 

[jbcarioca]

To be clear about the "Chinese-built European-style small hatchback" ...That said, I do fully expect Chinese-made Teslas to end up exported to some countries outside of China, due to China having better trade agreements with some third parties than the US or Europe.

Please add another major component. The fourth (India), sixth (UK) and seventh (Brazil) largest auto markets in the world have near-total foreign brand dominance. All of them have their highest unit volume in vehicles that are smaller than Model 3. In the 4th Suzuki is the largest brand, through Maruti. In the 6th everyone here knows. In the 7th by far the fastest growth is Chery, while in ~Model 3 sized vehicles Hyundai has a commanding lead.

Also in the 7th GM has it's only real international success these days, with the Chevrolet brand producing new vehicles
based on:
GM bets it has a GEM of a plan to hit paydirt in emerging markets

Just in case anybody missed the link, GM's GEM was actually designed mostly by SAIC. Automotive News is understandably generous about GM contribution, apart from brand name.

The Tesla next set of moves will almost certainly be towards some version of a semi-universal smaller platform that will be suitable to displace everything from Ford Fiesta, Maruti-Suzuki S-Presso, Chevrolet Onix and more. Doing taht will allow more GF's for India, Brazil, Mexico and maybe even UK. Thanks to the Tesla factory OS and other abilities they can replicate these factories quickly and cheaply and allow operation in otherwise prohibitive places.

Why am I so certain of this? Elon announced a China R&D center. Obviously that will be about more China production, but China production also is an ideal locus for global product design and major component manufacturing. Following established China practice they can quite easily expand to cover most of Africa, South America and much of Europe. That positioning provides for a decades worth of astonishing growth in automotive products.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hey, chill you two - we're all making shitloads of money right now, it's all good!

 

[Chocochip]

OF COURSE they're not starting production now. That was a stupid rumor started by an irresponsible blogger based on a flawed chinglish tweet which ended as a question.

Sheesh, we need a little critical thinking up in here.

Yeah, thanks for that, so kind! And on the topic of reading comprehension, note how I never said I expected them to announce the start of production for the Y.

My question was simply, do we know more today in terms of Model Y development in Shanghai than we did yesterday? Was there any info related to the Model Y (which was a topic during the celebrations at the GF) that is particularly new?

Other than that, I appreciate not being patronised.

 

[anon]

A new upgrade from Credit Suisse, including consideration of a more bullish price target: Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $340 at Credit Suisse While Describing The Framework for $1,900

I suspect that this may be contributing to the pre-market price rise today.

 

[Tslynk67]

As predicted:

And now CNBC spreading positive FUD: Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Boeing, Pfizer, Tesla, Pier 1, J&J, T-Mobile & more

Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla began production of its Model Y electric SUV at its new Shanghai factory, shortly after opening the factory and delivering its first China-built Model 3 cars.

 

[mongo]

My question was simply, do we know more today in terms of Model Y development in Shanghai than we did yesterday? Was there any info related to the Model Y (which was a topic during the celebrations at the GF) that is particularly new?

We as rapid Teska fans/ TMC readers? No
The general public who only know about Tesla via memes and news snippets? Quite possibly.

General public:
10 What's that? Tesla actually has a factory in China delivering 3s? And you say they are expanding into SUVs in the next year? Hummmm....

And or

20 Hey did you see Elon dance?
25 Wait, where is he?
GOTO 10

 

[Chocochip]

The Tesla bull community sometimes goes overboard on unrealistic expectations, but I have to say, expecting Tesla to be building and delivering Model Ys in China when they don't have a line for them there and haven't even opened their US line yet is a new level in ridiculousness.

If by "the Tesla bull community" you mean my question on the specifics of today's announcement (which is the comment you were replying to), I think you missed the mark. I wasn't aware that asking questions is now considered the same as having expectations. I respect your contributions and the wealth of information you bring to this forum as much as anyone, but I can do without the Karensplaining. You might be tired of some posters having unrealistic expectations -- frankly, so am I -- but please pay attention to what posts you are replying to and to whom you attribute those unrealistic expectations and that level of ridiculousness.

And to repeat myself. Again. I only wanted to know if I missed some big announcement on the Model Y. I never said they should've announced something. I just asked if they did, considering many people were excited about that leaked photo from yesterday with the Model Y project banner. It was a natural, logical extension to think Model Y developments were discussed, and I hadn't really heard anything new compared to what we were aware of previously.

 

[Tslynk67]

A new upgrade from Credit Suisse, including consideration of more bullish price targets: Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $340 at Credit Suisse While Describing The Framework for $1,900

I suspect that this may be contributing to the pre-market price rise today.

It's still too low, but a pretty huge change nevertheless.

This is how Shitty Alpha reports it (some words removed, ok, mods?):

Credit Suisse stays in bear camp on Tesla
Jan. 7, 2020 7:35 AM ET|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor
Credit Suisse keeps an Underperform rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but lifts its price target to $340 from $200.


The firm says to justify the current Tesla share price one arguably must assume that by 2025 Tesla will grow annual volume to 1.2M units, which may not take into account the greater auto cycle risk being factored into other auto stocks.


Dan Levy: "Our target price is largely based off our Model case, in which we assume: 1. Volume of 1mn units by 2025 (vs. ‘19 of 368k), with revenue CAGR of nearly 20%; 2. Additional operating leverage (with opex as % of sales better than other OEMs); 3. We apply a 17x multiple to our 2025 EPS estimate (justified given future growth streams, but still well ahead of avg OEM multiple of ~7x). On top of our estimates, we embed upside optionality in our target price to more bullish scenarios. Even with all that, Tesla stock appears rich."


Shares of Tesla are up 2.10% premarket to $460.89 to extend the three-month rally to around 90%.

 

[printf42]

What does Tesla have to do with "most" companies? Elon already said that Tesla was looking to hire the best Chinese engineers at GF3, and that the only way to do that would be to give them meaningful work to do.

What I expect is a small Eurocar to be designed and built there. Can you imagine the incentive they would have to make something to be exported to Europe? National pride. Use it! Of course the locals would be wild to buy such a thing too, so win win.

You are right, I am WRONG!!!
Who are you?

To self defense a bit, design and engineering center is different than software R&D center, I still expect Tesla to do FSD in Palo Alto.

 

[ReflexFunds]

A new upgrade from Credit Suisse, including consideration of more bullish price targets: Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $340 at Credit Suisse While Describing The Framework for $1,900

I suspect that this may be contributing to the pre-market price rise today.

Tesla bear raises price target 70% to $340 but current share price is already 35% higher. And yet he thinks Tesla could hit $1,900 or 10x the price target he had yesterday. He was recommending people short something that he thought could increase 10x?

 

[evster]

Guys, you just have to watch this if you haven't already. "Analyst" on Teslas competitors

 

[Fact Checking]

Karen you're on tilt. Stop asserting the preposterous and just take some deep breaths.

You are being extremely defensive and are both mis quoting me AND putting words in my mouth.

Obviously I touched a nerve.
I'll be putting you on ignore temporarily.

Cheers, honestly.

@KarenRei wasn't misquoting you, she quoted you verbatim:

Nah. You clearly missed much of the recent run and have obliquely admitted so "why are you making me roll my call spreads hurrdurr", which has in turn clearly altered the tone of all your postings to slightly indignant, pseudo bearishness.
We are not dumb.

Your unjustified attack of @KarenRei and your refusal to apologize is bordering on harrassment, please stop it immediately. I was close to reporting you for targeted harrassment.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I agree, that's how I understood those words as well.

Coincidentally, now that the documentation on some of the GF4 paperwork is out, Tesla is referencing Model 3, Model Y and "future product" production at the site as well. On the one hand, clearly not an announcement, just some language to get the permits covering all eventualities. However, if the 25k, smaller, cheaper car is to become reality, I always thought GF4 would be the primary production site for that. Not that China doesn't like smaller cars, but Europe would eat up a Golf sized hatchback for that money. RIP BMW 1 series.

If each market is playing to their strengths a German designed vehicle could be created with a more traditionally luxurious interior.

While I like the current minimalist interior it is quite common to hear others preferring a traditional interior.

Look out for the "Tesla Fancy" trademark

 

[SpaceCash]

@KarenRei wasn't misquoting you, she quoted you verbatim:



Your unjustified attack of @KarenRei and your refusal to apologize is bordering on harrassment, please stop it immediately. I was close to reporting you for targeted harrassment.

Dude just put me on ignore this drama is truly unnecessary idgaf