Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Leo9]

TSLA PT raised to $612 Oppenheimer.
That's the catalyst for today.

Spiegel reopened a short position with a stop at 498, so you know the rally is not over yet.

 

[Silentk]

Pre-market flying high. Hopefully bodes well for the day.

No thanks to libelous headlines like this:

 

[sparcs]

Drone videos are becoming increasingly popular! Here is a new one from Sarpsborg, Norway where Tesla is building a new Service Centre.

Wikipedia says population only 136k in that area. Tells you how strong demand is in Norway when they are targeting such small areas.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla price target raised to $612 from $385 at Oppenheimer TSLA - The Fly

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised his price target for Tesla to $612 from $385 and keeps an Outperform rating on the name. The stock closed Friday down $3.19 to $478.15. While Tesla "has stumbled through growing pains," the company has reached "critical scale" sufficient to support sustainable positive free cash flow, Rusch tells investors in a research note titled "What to Do Now with TSLA Shares?" Further, the analyst believes the company's "risk tolerance, ability to implement learnings from past errors, and larger ambition than peers are beginning to pose an existential threat to transportation companies that are unable or unwilling to innovate at a faster pace." Tesla has key advantages in powertrain design, battery technology, advanced driver-assistance systems fleet size, roadmap to energy independence offerings, and consumer enthusiasm that can translate into material operating leverage, share gains, and market disruption as renewables and autonomy trends accelerate, contends Rusch.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Wow... an analyst who actually gets it:


Tesla price target raised to $612 from $385 at Oppenheimer
thefly.com/...

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised his price target for Tesla to $612 from $385 and keeps an Outperform rating on the name. The stock closed Friday down $3.19 to $478.15. While Tesla "has stumbled through growing pains," the company has reached "critical scale" sufficient to support sustainable positive free cash flow, Rusch tells investors in a research note titled "What to Do Now with TSLA Shares?" Further, the analyst believes the company's "risk tolerance, ability to implement learnings from past errors, and larger ambition than peers are beginning to pose an existential threat to transportation companies that are unable or unwilling to innovate at a faster pace." Tesla has key advantages in powertrain design, battery technology, advanced driver-assistance systems fleet size, roadmap to energy independence offerings, and consumer enthusiasm that can translate into material operating leverage, share gains, and market disruption as renewables and autonomy trends accelerate, contends Rusch.

 

[sparcs]

488.70 +10.55 (2.21%)
Pre-Market: 7:12AM EST

looks like that price target helped

 

[printf42]

Already shared:

Has made good money last week. Expects a slow drop this week to 440. Then rise 4 days pre 28th (date he expects ER). He is now predominately in puts.

• He sold most of the calls last week, for a 3 times profits for the whole straddle setup, and putting most of the proceedings on sideline.
• Bought some more puts with winning money and expecting a slow drift down this week.
• Now he holds the cash he won, 50 more calls not sold yet, and more protective puts.
  
• Predicting end of this week to be a good point to “buy back in” with more stock than what he sold to fund the bet.
• He expects the Q4 report is going to be a very big volatile event(because Elon is going to talk about future), apparently bigger than what was priced in options, so he wanted to profit off it either ways.
• He still holds Tesla stock worth much more than the options
• Long term still bullish.

Overall I think he had it well played, with proper downside protection and not being too greedy.
Not mentioning the attention generated by the “click bait title” he admitted himself.
Hope he won’t stay sidelined for too long and miss the train.

 

[bhtooefr]

But presumably they'll try to electrify those smaller form factors first, because there's still demand for them, and the relative gain in emissions is the highest for them?

Explains FCA trying to bring back the Fiat 500e this year. I suspect they are targeting the 20,000 supercredits available, with a compliance vehicle, at or below cost.

The problem is cost, really. The A-segment cars are also usually the cheapest, which means it's harder to hide the battery cost... and due to their compromised aerodynamics, they need more battery for a given range than a B-segment or C-segment car.

The only reason the new 500e is being made is simply that it was too late for PSA to stop it, as I understand. Otherwise, they'd have entirely exited the A segment, with the B-segment e-208 and rebadges of it being their entry-level electric offering.

 

[Fact Checking]

The problem is cost, really. The A-segment cars are also usually the cheapest, which means it's harder to hide the battery cost... and due to their compromised aerodynamics, they need more battery for a given range than a B-segment or C-segment car.

The only reason the new 500e is being made is simply that it was too late for PSA to stop it, as I understand. Otherwise, they'd have entirely exited the A segment, with the B-segment e-208 and rebadges of it being their entry-level electric offering.

Very interesting! Is the PSA deal now 100% certain, or are there still potential roadblocks?

Both companies (PSA and FCA) refused to comment about the post merger treatment of the ZEV pooling agreement with Tesla.

 

[bhtooefr]

As I understand, it's all signed, but it'll take approximately a year to actually close.

 

[Tslynk67]

For those of you who have a twinge about cutting down that crop of trees in the German tree farm:

Have you any different feelings about cutting down this crop of grass in this Iowa grass farm? If so, why? If not, why not?View attachment 499504

Alternatively, how many of you had a Christmas tree in your house a few weeks ago, cut, without roots? Almost everyone I know did - not us, I hate the practice - but I bet there were 100's of millions in Europe alone. Why aren't there protests about that? Why isn't $TSLAQ writing to their elected representatives to express their outrage and this barbaric anachronism?

 

[Tslynk67]

Probably old news here, but we got an upgrade above $600...

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Lululemon, Boeing, Tesla, Ford & more

Tesla (TSLA) – Major stakeholder Baillie Gifford considered selling its 10% stake the automaker last year after a series of setbacks, according to an executive of the fund management group who spoke to The Times of London. The executive told the paper that while the case to keep the stake was “debatable,” the case against it wasn’t strong enough to sell. Separately, Oppenheimer raised its price target on the stock to $612 per share from $385, based on Tesla reaching scale sufficient to support positive free cash flow.

 

[Unpilot]

These upgrades are just the start.
As the " smart" money folks realize the train is leaving the station they are going to fall all over themselves to look like they called it.

 

[winfield100]

For those of you who have a twinge about cutting down that crop of trees in the German tree farm:

Have you any different feelings about cutting down this crop of grass in this Iowa grass farm? If so, why? If not, why not?View attachment 499504

Way OT but you asked in a moment of weakness
@AudubonB
That’s essentially an easy, simple question
Don’t you remember basic organic chemistry?
What is the shape of the bonds of the carbons linking the sugars?
For cellulose versus digestible sugars?
Extremely simple.
(Aaacckk! I can visualize it but describing it tougher after 50 years)

Cellulose. The glucose molecules have bonds linking them across the bottom and humans don’t have the enzymes to digest so no energy for us from cellulose (woody parts)

Starches. Digestible, usable for humans etc, chains of glucose etc. the molecules have bonds linking them bottom to top and humans DO have enzymes to digest so we can get energy. seed & stuff

trees are cellulose, although the nuts are not. (Eat my children not me please) and I won’t have a lot of them.
Corn (modified grass) is cellulose, but lots of edible digestible children. Modified by selection just a bit

breaking the glucose bonds of cellulose would make them more digestible, but we cannot

For an intriguing read “The Botony of Desire” humans interactions with about 5 species of plants, potatoes and others and how tightly linked plants and humans are in an almost symbiotic relationship

 

[Prunesquallor]

Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger cars - Climate Action - European Commission

What's changing in 2020 is that a 95 g/km target (normalized to vehicle average mass) is being phased in. The fine scheme existed as far back as 2012, when the 130 g/km target (also normalized to vehicle average mass) began to be phased in.

What changed in 2019 is that the fine structure was simplified (in a way that made it more punishing). Essentially, from 2012 through 2018, the penalty ramped. The first gram over the target was 5 €/g, the second gram was 15 €/g, the third gram was 25 €/g, and subsequent grams were 95 €/g. 2019 changed that to just a flat 95 €/g.

So, as an example, if you emitted an average of 130.5 g and you were at the average mass, before 2019, you'd be charged 2.50 €/car, and in 2019, you'd be charged 47.50 €/car. If you emitted 134 g, before 2019, you'd be charged 5 + 15 + 25 + 95 €/car, or 140 €/car, and in 2019, you'd be charged 380 €/car.

Of course, ignoring the phase-in criteria, in 2020, those hypothetical manufacturers would be charged 3372.50 €/car or 3705 €/car respectively, which is why everyone's panicking about CO2 fines now, even though the scheme's existed for ages.

To be honest, I never researched the 2019 situation, I was mostly interested in 2020-2023. However, here's a plot from
CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the European Union: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2018 | International Council on Clean Transportation
That shows where FCA stood in 2018 relative to the old 2015 limits and the new 2020 limits including the effect of vehicle mass. They were right on the 2015 limit (so not so comfortable, @Fact Checking ).
As an example, the document shows what happens to FCA's numbers if they had pooled with Tesla then and made the following somewhat confusing statement: "By paying Tesla to join its pool in 2019, Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) would have seen a 2 g/km decrease in average CO2 emissions in 2018."

I suppose it’s possible that FCA's emissions got worse in 2019 (that was the clear trend in he EU) so that they ended up on the wrong side of the line and needed Tesla's help.

 

[KarenRei]

For those of you who have a twinge about cutting down that crop of trees in the German tree farm:

Have you any different feelings about cutting down this crop of grass in this Iowa grass farm? If so, why? If not, why not?View attachment 499504

Yeah I would, just like I'd feel different about a field of 6-month old pine seedlings.

To reiterate to anyone just joining us: I don't oppose building GF4 there. I just sympathize with the trees having to die for it. Knowing full well that they're not "thinking beings" or anything of that nature. I just think trees are magnificent. I'd also feel bad about blowing up a beautiful rock formation to build a factory. Just like I feel bad about flooding a beautiful valley to make a dam. Is the valley a thinking being? No. But it's still magnificent, and thus, there's a loss.

But you're right, while some people may be proposing ambitious targets, I don't see this happening in Germany. Auto lobby too powerful.

The problem for Germany is that these are EU-wide regulations.

Has made good money last week. Expects a slow drop this week to 440. Then rise 4 days pre 28th (date he expects ER). He is now predominately in puts.

Which means that this will hurt:

Don't get me wrong - I'm supportive of the concept of adjusting leverage based on whether the market seems to be overreacting to something stupid vs. "finally getting it", or whatnot. But that's different from day-trading, switching back and forth based on how you think the market is going to hop, without major news, on a given day. And doing it with relatively high theta positions... e.g. you're paying a significant accruing expense every day you do so, so you need to beat your theta losses in order to get an actual return...

I have one bet, and that's that on average, Tesla is going to go up over the long-term. I have my leverage to enhance that long-term effect, and adjust that if the market is freaking out over something stupid or coming to realize that they were being stupid. But I'm not going to be placing huge, high-theta bets on what's going to happen in any given no-scheduled-news day :Þ

Jack wants to play casino. Well... I do wish him well. But I worry about his decision. But it's his call, so hopefully he'll do well and then quit while he's ahead

Spiegel reopened a short position with a stop at 498, so you know the rally is not over yet.

Did he actually?

Pre-market flying high. Hopefully bodes well for the day.

No thanks to libelous headlines like this:

View attachment 499560

Note that's CCN, not CNN. CCN is a no-name "cryptocurrency news" site that for some reason despises Tesla. Seems that there's some crypto trader behind the site who has a short bet on Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't have my own Twitter Account but if I did, this service of Paul's is something I would be interested in. Would I have to pay monthly? It sounds like a very promising business model. He has a HUGE potential customer base (pretty much every rational person who doesn't want TSLAQ$ BS in their face).

Smart businessman!

Seriously though, my wife let me sign into her Twitter account so I could make a light-hearted reply to one of toilet boy's tweets and my wife was amazed that within 3 minutes she was on the block list!

Or maybe she's just on toilet boy's personal block list. I haven't cared enough to waste the minute to find out which it is.

Here - you can dump the CSV: Block Together

 

[Tslynk67]

Similarly the main villain in Cold Pursuit (a not-exactly-Taken Liam Niason movie) has a Model X. When the villain's young son is kidnapped part way through the movie by someone claiming to be sent by his father, he asks "What happened to the Tesla?"

Cold Pursuit is a remake of the Norweigan film, Kraftidioten: In Order of Disappearance - Wikipedia - so maybe it's a nod to NO's EV culture.

 

[JusRelax]

I wonder how China's Tesla will do tomorrow based on this news?

China's Tesla (NIO) up around 6% currently, compared to Tesla up less than 2.5%

 

[MABMAB]

China's Tesla up around 6% currently, compared to Tesla up less than 2.5%

Confusing for those that want to follow overseas or foreign market prices, just call it NIO