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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla should have the Tesla Network appearing about end of 2021 and could see margins in the 80% (I think I got this right) vs 30% in EV manufacturing. Regulatory friction is an issue and they have added a year to make some allowance for this unknown. But see regulators noting a reduction in all types of accidents with autonomy from Tesla's data. Sees this generating a lot of cash.

EDIT: Note this is @lascavarian quoting Cathie Wood's interview.

I have to disagree on this one point since I really doubt Tesla Network, aka RoboTaxis will be operating by the end of next year. Anyone who has FSD and tries to use it knows what I mean. It will be a huge step from FSD working with a human behind the wheel, to true antonymous cars.

So put me in the category of putting zero value on FSD. I actually place a pretty low value on solar also until I see solar roof truly scaling. It is a good product but we haven't yet seen the growth from them to put much of a value on it. I'd love to be proven wrong, but solar is becoming a commodity market at this point with a lot of competition, so Tesla needs to figure out where to go with that. The California mandate may help but it doesn't actually mandate panels on a roof so somewhat doubtful.

Fortunately, I think there are plenty of other reasons to be excited about where they are going. Really hyped for battery day since I want to see that roadmap to 2TWH of battery capability. Affordable storage is the biggest thing holding back renewables from flat out taking over, and if Tesla cracks that along with Semis, Trucks, etc, than I think we will all be super happy with the SP.
 
I believe what Ross means is that he has only 200 TSLa shares left from his $30 entry point but he has purchased more along the way.
He has more than 200 shares today but at a higher cost basis.
He is not a fund manager. He manages his clients' money ( I assume for high fees). So this is his personal holding. He probably has a lot of his clients' money invested in Tesla. His current spiel on twitter is that you should take your profit and give a couple of percent of the profit to me in exchange to invest your money and generate inferior return to you.
 
FUD pieces are absolutely flying all over the place......and bouncing off a brick wall of immunity to bullshit.

They're pushing rope.

Maybe our secret accumulator is a honey badger.

In other news, looked back at the weekly chart and realized TSLA hasn't had a down week since the Cybertruck reveal. That is...remarkable.
 
Tesla account down for me as well. Server must be overloaded from people ordering the bulletproof T-shirt. I got mine a few minutes before it went down :)

Merchandising! That's where the real money is!

giphy-downsized.gif
 
Are you sure? For Q3 they announced the October 23 date on October 9, for Q2 the July 24 result on July 11, and for Q1 the April 24 result on April 11:

If the Q4 results are released next Wednesday (January 22) then they'd have announced it on the 9th already, right?

If the Q4 earnings call is on January 29, then they'd normally announce it on the 15th or 16th: tomorrow or in two days.

bloomberg still saying estimate of 1/29, so you’re correct, tesla didn’t announce yet.
 
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Well, all the discussion here did not change my opinion much regarding trading TSLA.

I will hold on to my TSLA shares with an iron grip for the next few years and my retirement account has an even longer time horizon of 20 years, so yeah, lets roll - not selling until I see I can retire early.

Most of my calls have are 2022 Jan & Jun, so I will ride out the volatility with these, hopefully.

I was somewhat affected by the peer pressure, especially considering how stupid it was for me to recently sell 320c, 420c & 600c for having no vision of bigger appreciation.

So, here's my sacrifice to the altar of insanity
Screenshot_20200114-102542_Firstrade.jpg


That's $2,200 that I pretty much kissed goodbye.

What I'm thinking:
1. @anthonyj is expecting 3x profit in Q4 compared to Q3.
I saw couple other references to 2x, including one by DaveT. 2x may be sufficient to screw with many analysts/funds heads and justify higher future valuation.
2. If EM talks about 4-5 years horizon in ER as he intended, this may demonstrate the leaving train to some passengers still in doubts whether to get in.
3. Sounds like the Y may move up yet again. My understanding was ~end of Q2 for mid volume production- like 1k/w, it currently feels like this may advance by a couple of months.

These things give some chance to those $2.2k.

Q4 might be the last time when coming things are not yet fully expected and EM's credibility is not fully vetted...
 
The Taycan Turbo S range dropped on fueleconomy.gov.... it's not even 200 miles:

View attachment 500055

This is the Turbo S that I believe had 192 before while the Taycan remains on 201mi, more shocking is that a real live test in California from someone who received a delivery, a movie start I believe and big Porsche fans who owns a few did report real life range of 147 miles and true range anxiety as he could not find a fast charger and everything else took ages.

It does not get better from here and Porsche itself seems to struggle with it internally.

As predicted all forces have been trying to develop a "real Porsche" completely ignoring what that may make with the range given the technology they have.

Those companies always manage to beat my already low expectations.
 
It will compete vary favorably in the 'go the the store or work' segment, so long as one does not mind the price. The LEAF better watch out.
I think they will sell a few to people who want the image of an EV + Porsche but for whatever reason don't want a Tesla and have their Escalade to guzzle gas on road trips. None of them will be tracked really so owners aren't at any risk of being embarrassed by the plaid S or roadster.
 
EDIT: Note this is @lascavarian quoting Cathie Wood's interview.

I have to disagree on this one point since I really doubt Tesla Network, aka RoboTaxis will be operating by the end of next year. Anyone who has FSD and tries to use it knows what I mean. It will be a huge step from FSD working with a human behind the wheel, to true antonymous cars.

So put me in the category of putting zero value on FSD. I actually place a pretty low value on solar also until I see solar roof truly scaling. It is a good product but we haven't yet seen the growth from them to put much of a value on it. I'd love to be proven wrong, but solar is becoming a commodity market at this point with a lot of competition, so Tesla needs to figure out where to go with that. The California mandate may help but it doesn't actually mandate panels on a roof so somewhat doubtful.

Fortunately, I think there are plenty of other reasons to be excited about where they are going. Really hyped for battery day since I want to see that roadmap to 2TWH of battery capability. Affordable storage is the biggest thing holding back renewables from flat out taking over, and if Tesla cracks that along with Semis, Trucks, etc, than I think we will all be super happy with the SP.

Thanks for posting about your disagree. Personally, I remain more cautious than Kathy W. on the timeline for the Tesla Network. I think I got her expressed timeline correct however.

Their 3rd revision may reveal more substance on her position.

I think it bears some pondering however that we are so focused on the vehicles whereas she is focused on the data and what it may/will be able to deliver.

The vehicle is the data delivery device. The data is what she seems to see as transformative. Could it be that we find we give up our personal vehicles more easily than we think? That is a hard one for me.
 
Half-time Report:

SP: $537.36 +$12.40
Vol: 18,575,783​

Opinion: The daily trading pattern that seems to have emerged is Pre-market price spikes on heavy volume, followed by an swift and hard MMD at the Open. Then, the usual 'capping' and 'icicles' throughout the trading day.

Conclusion: There is a 'stealth squeeze' going on, wherein brokers are forcing share buy-backs on margin-called short sellers in the pre-market (locking out retail investors due to early trading restrictions). Then after the Open, large brokers/MMs dump huge #s of shares in an attempt to limit the days' gains.

Lesson: Buy and Hold continues to be a good strategy for Investors. Traders participating in 'Swing' trading, well YMMV... personally reminds me of an old American tale, "The Pit and the Pendulum". Personally, I remain focused on the long game, HODLing.

Cheers!