Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

I have not felt this good about Tesla as a company since I became as my GF call's it..... addicted to it....

Wait, YOU have a gigafactory too?

 

[Hock1]

I've seen a number of posts recently that have a bitter tone to them. I guess if I thought I was the smartest trader in the room, so smart that I thought it would be a smart move to sell off a large portion of my TSLA at $510-$540, because certainly, I could buy them back for less when it dropped into the $400's, but then it went on a tear like today I might be bitter too.

Or, I might just take responsibility for my actions and not carry a grudge.

I got used to thinking you were a buy-and-hold guy. Guess everyone has their price.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Mitsubishi Probed in Germany on Diesel Cheating Allegations

[...] police and prosecutors began investigating 10 sites across Germany, Nadja Niesen, a spokeswoman for Frankfurt prosecutors, wrote in an emailed statement. Three of the locations raided belong to auto parts supplier Continental AG, which is a witness in the probe and is cooperating fully, according to an emailed Continental statement.

“There’s suspicion that the engines were equipped with a defeat device set up to meet emissions limits during testing but not in real driving conditions,” Niesen said. “The use of such a device is prohibited under EU law.”

Tatsuo Yoshida, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said that a possible recall could involve as many as 400,000 vehicles and cost as much as 30 billion to 40 billion yen ($273 million to $364 million), including legal issues. [...]​

Cheese and Crackers. Really?

 

[davepsilon]

I wondered if he was thinking of the space needed for the previous OEM "parts assemblers", not vertically integrated Tesla. Since Tesla builds more parts in house they may need more space per vehicle. (I realize they produce parts at other locations as well so my premise may be flawed).

He did actually mention that. 32:53 is the start of the statement on this.

In short Sandy Munroe thinks those sub assembly builds might be part of what is taking up space but he thinks would better fit in the Sparks Gigafactory to avoid making dirt in Fremont that ultimately makes it harder to paint. Personally I don't want to take a position either agreeing or disagreeing with that. I don't know what makes more sense.

 

[Zaxxon]

Keep in mind, all, that the scuttlebutt has the Michigan settlement due to be officially announced tomorrow. Today's articles were all short on facts and sourced anonymously.

When the 'real' news hits, we could see a positive reaction.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I bought 2 shares @420 out of a sense of camaraderie, little did I think at the time that was a buy point I'd be pining for now!

Oh ya, I forgot about mine!
Nice!!!

 

[steak&chicken]

David Einhorn is no longer short Tesla. He released Greenlight Capital investment letter today and there was no mention of TSLA anywhere in the letter. After all the public call out claiming TSLA was overvalued and cooking the books, I'm disappointed there's not even a sentence mentioning TSLA and how it kicked his butt. What a weak retreat by Einhorn.

Why Einhorn Hates Netflix More Than Ever, And Remains Long Gold

You can read his investment letter at the bottom of that page. I didn't bother reading and only skimmed. There's nothing I can learn from him.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Third row twitter feed is pretty interesting this past week, especially if we assume they have the good oil having recently sat down with Elon.

Today they are pushing the DBE angle.

Twitter

Recently they have been pushing FSD (feature complete) and Model Y as imminent. I guess we learn on 29 Jan how much faith to place on third row retweets.

 

[wreese]

David Einhorn is no longer short Tesla. He released Greenlight Capital investment letter today and there was no mention of TSLA anywhere in the letter. After all the public call out claiming TSLA was overvalued and cooking the books, I'm disappointed there's not even a sentence mentioning TSLA and how it kicked his butt. What a weak retreat by Einhorn.

Why Einhorn Hates Netflix More Than Ever, And Remains Long Gold

You can read his investment letter at the bottom of that page. I didn't bother reading and only skimmed. There's nothing I can learn from him.

Always read the footnotes...

"We have omitted an undisclosed short. Also of note is that Tesla is not included. While we maintain a negative view of the company, our Tesla exposure, which has been mostly expressed through put options, was not large enough to qualify for this list at December 31, 2019. One difference between a short cash equity position and a long put option strategy is that in the put strategy, when the stock price moves against us, our exposure becomes smaller."

 

[MikeC]

David Einhorn is no longer short Tesla. He released Greenlight Capital investment letter today and there was no mention of TSLA anywhere in the letter. After all the public call out claiming TSLA was overvalued and cooking the books, I'm disappointed there's not even a sentence mentioning TSLA and how it kicked his butt. What a weak retreat by Einhorn.

Why Einhorn Hates Netflix More Than Ever, And Remains Long Gold

You can read his investment letter at the bottom of that page. I didn't bother reading and only skimmed. There's nothing I can learn from him.

Still short TSLA, it’s just that the surging stock price rendered his position insignificant.

 

[AudubonB]

I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night,

But I did (barely) understand @SpaceCash's post - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[StealthP3D]

Keep in mind, all, that the scuttlebutt has the Michigan settlement due to be officially announced tomorrow. Today's articles were all short on facts and sourced anonymously.

When the 'real' news hits, we could see a positive reaction.

I doubt there will be any positive action attributable to Michigan. While it's nice they can probably service their cars there, it's probably not going to move the share price enough to notice. Now, had TSLA gone to court and established a strong precedent that could be used to conquer these unjust laws in all the other states with restrictions, that would move the market. Also, since it was known today, it's no longer news, even if specific details are lacking.

As silly as it may sound, the current momentum is more relevant. This is what gets people to sit up straight, take notice, and push the "buy" button. Think rats on self-administered narcotics.

 

[davepsilon]

I am having trouble believing that new rational shorts (they exist -- right ?) are in the game. After all, I cannot identify a single clear signal that the Q4 ER will be negative. Maybe neutral, but the GF3 is likely to be ramping up like a tornado.

I can understand investors who find TSLA too expensive to take a long position but to short it now ?

Crazy

If the market expects rosy++ and earnings report is only rosy the reaction could be ‘negative’. And if not now in your mind, then certainly if the stock price continues to ramp before earnings it could reach such a level. Not worth worrying about for investments. But it’s not obvious to me there will be a good trade to hold through earnings report.

 

[JustMe]

On topic speculation:

Vin number on Model Y spotted in the wild suggests ~ 600 vehicles have already been made. Tesla Model Y numbers tipped in the hundreds as pre-launch sightings increase | The Driven

 

[anthonyj]

Look at index futures! Wtf it’s like 1999 super bullish. I’m betting $600 tomorrow

 

[M3Rider]

Do you think TSLA up $37 today (and another $7 in after-hours) qualifies as "unfrickenbelievable"?

I think it has nothing to do with dinosaurs if you quote your post fully.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think it has nothing to do with dinosaurs if you quote your post fully.

Bitter much?

My post was a prediction that Elon's dinosaur tweet would ensure a strong day on Tuesday (today).

So I'm not really following you.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And it did.

[William Tell Overture]

Yeah, today was more like the 1812 Overture. BTW, those are the "STARTING" Guns.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Quick bet - above or below 550 at close today? ;-)

This do seem like the quiet before the storm imho..
I'd say Shortville get way more than their fair share of bad weather.



Edit: ..wait, let me re-phrase
I'd say Shortville get their fair huge share of bad weather. Long time coming

This was from ~13 pages back. After hours we broke 550. 554.25 in fact!

That $1.8B in deferred tax allowances sounds like $10 EPS to me. If that takes 12 months to be captured, and Tesla receives a 100 PE, then that's a $1200 share price right there (over and above the actual earnings and whatever multiple they're earning).


EDIT: After reading here, the $1.8B in deferred tax allowances looks like a $1.8B reduction in earnings that taxes needs to be paid on. So if the company is paying taxes at 21% (US Corporate tax rate), then that'll be more like $360M in improved earnings, or $2 EPS.

EDIT2: I am not an accountant, and have a more than health hobby interest in accounting. So I'm probably wrong, both in the original thought AND in the followup edit. Don't listen to me - do your own research (or listen to @The Accountant).


Of course, then the sugar high wears off, and Tesla needs to start paying taxes like any other ridiculously profitable company (and any other barely profitable company), and the actual EPS comes back down to Earth.

The trick to understanding this situation is:

1. for GAAP accounting purposes, as soon as Tesla becomes "more likely than not" (> 50/50 chance) to become profitable in the future, they MUST claim all of their deferred tax allowances
   
2. tax accounting is different and will be more subject regional / timing issues
3. Only part of the $1.81B pool of deferred tax allowances will be claimed as Income on the P&L Statement; the rest will appear on the Balance Sheet likely as Owner's Equity

This can not be understated: Tesla is about to get TWO YEARS worth of free growth, like the uncoiling of a spring. @The Accountant says we shouldn't talk about it (he thinks it might scare away the fish. I say let's go find 'em!)

Cheers!

Two great posts on my favourite topic. @Fact Checking we need you to tell us what is what. My trust in your intentions and ability means it has to be you. The horse has bolted - just tell us straight. Some are already buying near term $1000 strike price calls without your "not an advice" endorsement.

$555 AH. $100B market cap!

This milestone should make the news cycle imminently - should catch the eye of prospective new investors.

 

[Rammstein]

Po

Oh ok I see. What would be ironic is if it goes even more crazy up after earnings and he’s not in the stock yet has been calling that it would go up all this time.

poor guy