Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

With regard to Toyota, my thoughts:

They have succeeded in making a name for themselves as a manufacturer whose cars are highly reliable and profitable. However, they have done so precisely because they are very conservative, both from a design perspective and from a technical perspective. It's not super-difficult to master something when you do it the same way for decades.

GM, Ford, and Chrysler found/find that very difficult.

 

[Remus]

I think another US GF for Cyberfactory will be announced soon. (+ is this what Trump is referring to?)

So what if Tesla does a Cap raise and expedites the new GF?

He maybe just talking about the GF1 which technically is still being built. Who knows. Trump with his word salad.

What is really relevant, think about the demand in the red states. This is free targeted advertising just for the places where Tesla didn't do so well. Those pick up truck guys who would never even look at cyber truck, now they would have a second thought!

How much one would pay for such an ads?

 

[StealthP3D]

No, Tesla will build Cybertruck in Nevada. And why would they start planning for 50K/yr when they have hundreds of thousands of reservations already?

Totally agree. Tesla produces pure magic in all its vehicles. At the announced price points for the Cybertruck, demand is not even a concern (only figuring out how to meet it).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Please take a moment to educate this newb,

Why is the 8k@$600 worse ?

Worse == greater loss for MMs. Profit depends greatly on purchase price of Call. If these $600s were bought on the cheap, they be like 20x at sales times. Maybe @Lycanthrope can give a concrete example, I think he bought some 600s.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Because $100 refundable reservations are not necessarily indicative of long term steady state demand.

I disagree. The $100 deposit needs to be discounted an appropriate amount to account for the lack of "skin in the game" but reservation numbers most certainly are indicative of demand. Every indication I can see points to the Cybertruck selling beyond anyone's wildest fantasy. The fact that many hate it with a passion is actually a net positive if you understand the phenomena around high demand.

 

[SageBrush]

I find it interesting to see no apparent lack of liquidity.

 

[ZeApelido]

To infinity and beyond!

 

[FrankSG]

I just randomly caught this bad boy trade. $1.50 above all the rest of them. Anybody has any insights as to what this trade means?

 

[SageBrush]

Worse == greater loss for MMs. Profit depends greatly on purchase price of Call. If these $600s were bought on the cheap, they be like 20x at sales times. Maybe @Lycanthrope can give a concrete example, I think he bought some 600s.

Cheers!

I think I am following ... you are taking a guess at the underlying leverage ?
If so, fair enough, although there is ~ 1.5x more contracts at the lower strike price and e.g. at a SP of e.g. $605 the MM would lose $500 a contract while the $575 CALL writer would lose $3000 (each before taking into account the premiums collected)

Right ?

 

[Doit]

No but he did double down on his Netflix short before yesterday. He should have just put the money he made in 2008 into a savings account at 1% interest

Had he done that, when would he become a millionaire?

 

[MartinAustin]

View attachment 503129

I just noticed Ferrari in that table.

Anyone who has a problem with Tesla's "low volume prodution numbers" surely has a much larger problem with Ferrari's market cap!

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't count upgrades as actual news - they move the market, but they're not actual news about the company itself, just news about someone's beliefs above the company.

In an honest world, you would be correct. Sadly, many upgrades/downgrades have little to do with the analyst's actual beliefs about the company and everything to do with the desired impact.

 

[Vines]

Good time to have buckled up and holding long! I'm still in despite being tempted. I don't see this upward trend reversing, in fact it doesn't seem to be leveling out much either.Thanks @StealthP3D and all the other fine minds here. I appreciate the bullish attitudes and the more restrained ones as well.

With so much inertia, my semi-irrational fears of a crater event and significant loss are fading away. Apparently the kids are talking short squeeze at some point but what do I know, that should be good for additional inertia, as soon as the shorts realize the war is lost.

 

[StealthP3D]

Didn't Elon tweet Munro was essentially correct both about his praise and criticism?

Yes, that was a smart move by Elon! He said Munro got the pro's and cons correct, not all the details. A brilliant move by Elon!

 

[lklundin]

Intraday ATH: 579.85

 

[Mkorpal]

Making moves again. 600 is getting closer.

 

[Svetlin]

So, a week ago I sold a couple of 580 covered calls for this Friday. I'm still new to this, being a Market Maker and all. How do I get the price to stay under 580?

(I know, I'll just buy them back if I have to)

 

[SageBrush]

I disagree. The $100 deposit needs to be discounted an appropriate amount to account for the lack of "skin in the game" but reservation numbers most certainly are indicative of demand. Every indication I can see points to the Cybertruck selling beyond anyone's wildest fantasy. The fact that many hate it with a passion is actually a net positive if you understand the phenomena around high demand.

I think of the 5 or so people I have spoken with who reserved the cybertruck, not one is a committed buyer. That is not much better than an anecdotal sample but I think it does suggest that trivial, returnable deposits should be discounted very heavily in sales forecasts.

I like to remind people of the GM Volt. Back in the day GM asked the internet for a show of hands if they would like GM to make the Volt. History says (I am skeptical) that due to the very positive response GM brought the car to market. GM predicted up to 200k sales a year in short order, I presume based in part on the internet interest.

As we know, the Volt barely hit 20k sales a year, required large manufacturer discounts to even be a useful compliance car for GM, and was dead after two generations.

So I too take the cybertruck reservations total with a large dose of salt. I'll be delighted to be proven wrong. In fact I think we will buy the smaller version when it comes out because both my wife and I are in love with it.

So there!

 

[ggr]

Worse == greater loss for MMs. Profit depends greatly on purchase price of Call. If these $600s were bought on the cheap, they be like 20x at sales times. Maybe @Lycanthrope can give a concrete example, I think he bought some 600s.

Cheers!

Case in point: these are for next month, but yeah.

 

[MartinAustin]

The POTUS comments deserve their own post. Talking about POTUS on this forum is now legitimate since he talked about Tesla/SpaceX/Elon We still have to remain apolitical if possible. My take: we can certainly breath a sigh of relief that Trump is not coming after Elon. That comes with its own giant set of problems, and Tesla already has enough enemies. Look at the headaches Trump is causing for Bezos. Not just mean tweets... it's real revenue loss (the JEDI initiative going to Microsoft, USPS costs etc.) Elon was also the first person to "leave" the CEO forums that Trump created way back at the beginning of his presidency, so that could have come back to haunt him - fortunately it didn't.

Trump is fond of industrialist, factory building and manufacturing in general, so in theory Elon and Trump were already aligned well. It's weird that Elon's overall mission is to defeat climate change, even though Trump maintains that it's not a priority (and even, not real at all) I could see a personal tour of Fremont in the future for Trump, and perhaps GF1 (but not GF2 lol, let's not take things too far) We are very lucky that Trump has not asked why all Teslas aren't being built in the USA. Elon's plan to reduce the number of atoms being moved around the world (and thus, build cars near where they are sold) is anathema to the concept of exports - which Trump appears to favour. Perhaps Trump is really only interested in reducing imports (which reduce employment inside the USA) and isn't too worried about exports. I could be way off base here, but these Elon/Tesla/SpaceX comments could be the beginning of a sneaky pivot for Trump. He could continue to criticise environmental efforts, but at the same time help Tesla thrive - in order to hedge and have a finger in both pies.

Re: the "new factory" comment - IMO this is either continued expansion of GF1 for more batteries/powertrains or Cybertruck, or an actual new factory for SpaceX for the future missions. It won't be solar energy yet since GF2 still has plenty of space. I think more likely the GF1 expansion. I don't think SpaceX is ready to start building anything new/permanent yet. They can set up shop pretty darn quick when they want to, and the Starship program is still pretty early on, in terms on needing a large/mass production facility.

Trump is kind of a market maker for corporate/celebrity sentiment. He can invent news out of thin air. If he had decided to take a negative position on Elon, it would embolden the shorts with all kinds of new hopes and dreams, populate airtime on Fox News et. al with juicy barbs, and galvanise his "base" with rejuvenated negativity towards Tesla - blocking of Supercharges, ridicule of the Cybertruck and so on. The reality is the shorts just had a major FUD option taken off the table... I'm sure they're not enjoying today. Also, Trump's "base" - i.e. those persons who feed at the trough and do what they think is right, even though they're not really considering things properly - may now be more positively predisposed to things like the Cybertruck, avoiding the blocking of Superchargers, perhaps even ordering current Tesla vehicles when they had previously ruled it out. It's a good day for Tesla - perhaps for the wrong reasons lol.

$580 BOOM!!!

Mod: This article is a perfect example of a post that will NOT be deleted by moderators. Thank you. --ggr