I know many folks here are aware of it, but it’s interesting to (re)read Heinlein's “Friday”, where Daniel Shipstone “sciences the *sugar*” out of the battery problem.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Since TMC is clearly at the heart of the TSLA retail discussion, I take this as Elon Musk's personal nod to the excellent posters here.
So all those who make highly informative posts here should feel proud - and I think we can all feel very good about our long TSLA exposure.
Btw, in about 12 hours my portfolio increased in value equal to one whole year's salary...
jeewee3000
Active Member
Not that I don't trust your facts, but I listened to the webcast and read the ER slides, and IMO it was:
Current annual production rate:
Fremont S/X = 90k
Fremont 3/Y = 400k
Shanghai 3 = 150k
Total = 640k
Mid 2020 forecast:
Model 3/ Model Y installed capacity in Fremont will extend to 500,000 by mid-2020
So if S/X/MIC3 were to remain flat that would result in 740k.
Where did you get 790k? Of course Shanghai would ramp, so your statement is probably an accurate forecast. I must have missed it on the call.
Either way: the above proves that expected deliveries of 500k in 2020 is a very conservative projection. Which I love, since that way Tesla can keep on beating Wall Street expectations, rendering the TMC crowd richer.
ER was good and I'm bullish on the long term.
That said it's quite obvious that we are reaching a peak in enthusiasm and exuberance, just like we reached a peak in negative sentiment in late May / June.
A lot of shorts will be forced to cover and that will provide momentum, but the short interest is relatively low and the price action has gone parabolic for a while now. Risk reward in the short to mid term is skewed to the downside at these prices.
We'll see! It's going to be a fun day.
Going into 2020 I feel like Tesla Energy is still very underappreciated, but it's obviously growing very nicely.
That said it's quite obvious that we are reaching a peak in enthusiasm and exuberance, just like we reached a peak in negative sentiment in late May / June.
A lot of shorts will be forced to cover and that will provide momentum, but the short interest is relatively low and the price action has gone parabolic for a while now. Risk reward in the short to mid term is skewed to the downside at these prices.
We'll see! It's going to be a fun day.
Going into 2020 I feel like Tesla Energy is still very underappreciated, but it's obviously growing very nicely.
There's no grounds for pessimism at all until the parabolic rise peaks. There is no reason we should rest here or at 850 or at 1000 until we actually witness a peak.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Q4 '20 production of S/X was 17,933 while capacity is 22,500.
For 2020 S/X production was 63,381 while capacity was 90,000.
So Tesla can increase production 42% of S/X in 2020 over 2019 if demand is there.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Just a quick recap of what happened in after-hours and pre-market trading after the stunning Q3 results back in October:
The yellow areas are after-hours and pre-market trading. So after Q3 results TSLA popped from $255 to $308 (up +20%), then moved back to $298 in pre-market trading, a -3.3% drop.
On the next day, I suspect it was options market makers/writers or big shorts who executed a heroic 20 million shares effort to keep the price under control and forced the price into a tight band of $289-$304 with a $299 closing price.
TSLA popped to its new range only after that day:
Markets are fundamentally imperfect, and price discovery is never instantaneous - in the case of Tesla it took something like 2 years after the writing was on the wall in 2018 already.
So while history seldom repeats, keep this in mind - but also keep it in mind that I could be wrong and this is not advice.
The yellow areas are after-hours and pre-market trading. So after Q3 results TSLA popped from $255 to $308 (up +20%), then moved back to $298 in pre-market trading, a -3.3% drop.
On the next day, I suspect it was options market makers/writers or big shorts who executed a heroic 20 million shares effort to keep the price under control and forced the price into a tight band of $289-$304 with a $299 closing price.
TSLA popped to its new range only after that day:
Markets are fundamentally imperfect, and price discovery is never instantaneous - in the case of Tesla it took something like 2 years after the writing was on the wall in 2018 already.
So while history seldom repeats, keep this in mind - but also keep it in mind that I could be wrong and this is not advice.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Raven may be using Ultracaps for its active rear suspension (replace shock absorber energy reservoir). Photos and discussion here on TMC in 2019Q2.
Given her patience in the face of these insultingly stupid comments, Cathie Woods should write herself a check for a million dollars for every CNBC appearance.
In a platonic way, I love that woman.
Well, who am I kidding? To hell with platonic.
Very true. It would be foolish to blindly short now, but I would be careful on the long side (I would not go long at these prices)
I contend that fair market cap is already about $250 Billion and will not consider selling a large percentage of my holdings til then.
Frighteningly, it looks like the CO2 ppm data.
We'll probably get there (and even higher). I wouldn't necessarily sell a core long position, I'm just saying that opening a new position now is probably not the best idea from a risk / reward standpoint.
Well this is exact moment is an inverse falling knife so yeah it's impossible to time but looks bullish af to me
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not for the traction pack, but UltraCaps are far more suitable for implimenting an electric suspension system. Those require 100s of millions of cycles over its lifetime.
Using Ultracaps means no more replacing worn out shocks, the same way Regen means no more replacing worn out brakes.
Elon did say a small roll for UltraCaps. Listen to his comments again.
Cheers!
was listening to the call last night until 1.30am (CET) - with one eye opened and about to sleep...can not remember who of the analysts asked about fund raising but it was obvious it was a short biased question.
Something like: Hi Elon, don't you think the timing for cash raising is given due to the SP being high?
I mean, simply by that type of question it is obvious that this person is either confident about what he is saying or some big players are pushing him to behave as such.
Something like: Hi Elon, don't you think the timing for cash raising is given due to the SP being high?
I mean, simply by that type of question it is obvious that this person is either confident about what he is saying or some big players are pushing him to behave as such.
wombat9
Member
Key Notes from Tesla Q4:
- 2020 deliveries guidance lower bound of 500k. I've seen many people mischaracterize 500k as Tesla's 2020 guidance. It is not, it is a lower bound that they expect to hit even if they encounter huge issues with the Model Y and GF3 production ramps. Given their comments on production plans, I think the undisclosed upper bound is likely ~650k.
- Production capacity of 590k in Fremont and at least 150k in China by the end of June. They also plan to take the GF3 Model 3 line beyond 150k and the Model Y GF3 factory is under construction. I still expect Tesla to take Fremont 3 + Y beyond 500k capacity later this year. 500k can be achieved quickly with low capex and mostly existing staff. Body Shop capacity is very likely going to be significantly above 500k at June, but taking all sub lines beyond 500k will likely require a Paint shop upgrade and possibly a change to stamping. General assembly capacity is unclear - it is low capex and low opex but footprint availability is the only question.
- Tesla appears to be much further with its plans to move to end to end machine learning on video from 8 camera feeds than I expected. This is likely using their new Project Dojo server chip for neural net training. This is likely to be game changing not only for Tesla's Autopilot accuracy/disengagement rates, but for the Artificial Intelligence field generally.
- The team appears to be getting even more excited about their huge battery cell breakthroughs and this should be revealed in April.
- Model Y is in production already and to some extent production capacity will be flexible between 3 & Y ( i think this means battery supply, Paintshop and general assembly while casting shop and body shop will be separate). Tesla will be incentivised to divert as much capacity to Model Y as possible (and this could lead to Model 3 price rises). Even without price rises, this is likely to significantly improve ASP mix and margins for Fremont in 2020 given Model Y gross profit per car will be ~$3k higher than an equivalent Model 3 and that initial orders will be limited to the extremely high ASP and margin AWD and P models.
I think Tesla's first use for Starlink would be to use them at the (larger) Supercharger sites for providing WIFI there.
Edit: Compared to Maxwell and batteries, I consider the Starlink synergy to be of limited value.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Model 3 is faster than most supercars (3P).
Plaid will be faster than ALL hypercars (Pld incld's the S/X/R2)
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