Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kengchang]

There was a piece on today’s MarketPlace on NPR on Tesla and TeslaQ and such
However, they mentioned that JB Straubel has left.
Is that true?
Do they need to do a retraction or something ?

JB went into retirement mode since mid last year

 

[capster]

Well peeps, I know I’ve been very bullish since I’ve been here saying "Hold," "Hold," "Hold," "Hold."

In the spirit of full disclosure, I must concede that circumstances have forced me to change my position from “Hold" to:










"Hold on!!!"

Yeah, I still haven’t sold and will not be not selling any of my golden TSLA tickets for a loooong time, if ever.

 

[Open Interest]

Well peeps, I know I’ve been very bullish since I’ve been here saying "Hold," "Hold," "Hold," "Hold."

In the spirit of full disclosure, I must concede that circumstances have forced me to change my position from “Hold" to:










"Hold on!!!"

Yeah, I still haven’t sold and will not be not selling any of my golden TSLA tickets for a loooong time, if ever.

Have you considered hodling?

 

[Skryll]

JB went into retirement mode since mid last year

He went on a mission of his own, battery recycling business stealth startup

 

[Prunesquallor]

Is Gordon Johnson insane? After watching a couple of clips he seems very ...um...insane.
Classic spewing of "fact's" and stringing together many statistics in a oddly confrontational manner.

I think he needs help.

I don’t think you try to rationalize (or irrationalize) their behavior. Their reputation has been bought and paid for. They don’t care if they are right or wrong. They don’t worry about having to answer for past ridiculously bad predictions. They just cash the checks. They are the mouthpieces of their masters. It’s a job, I guess.

 

[EVNow]

For those interested ... this is in the finance thread.

Here is a comparison of my model and the actual.

One thing that makes it difficult to forecast Tesla is the sudden reversal of trends. In Q3 it was the margin that suddenly got better and reversed the trend of margins getting lower.

This time we have
- Sudden increase in SGA by $100M. Partly because of $65M in stock comp. Most of the gaap profit difference can be attributed to this.
- Model S&X ASP increased $10k to 102k. This resulted in better margin of 19.9% vs 19.2% (auto non-lease ex-credits).
- Service margin continued to get better from -21% to -16%.
- Energy margin went back to 12% after a good 25% last quarter.


View attachment 506167

 

[JustMe]

Is Gordon Johnson insane? After watching a couple of clips he seems very ...um...insane.
Classic spewing of "fact's" and stringing together many statistics in a oddly confrontational manner.

I think he needs help.

Like many Tesla bears, he seems insulted by Tesla’s success and refusal to act like a normal auto company. Your description of his debate style is perfect. It’s exactly the same as the Tesla curmudgeons I’ve written many rants against. Any debate is impossible to win because their confirmation bias is all consuming.

But they don’t matter any more.

 

[Josuke]

Random thought. Tesla spent only $1.3bil on CAPEX in 2019 but is enough to fuel 50% growth in 2020.

Elon says Tesla is spending as much as they need. With $6.3bil in the bank and spending less than half of their operating cash flows on CAPEX, wouldn't it be a good idea to dump the rest of the cash to buy back its own stock?

Especially if TSLA doubles in a year or two. It'd be a good investment for them just to buy now at $640 and then sell it back as a capital raise for $1500.

Seems like a good idea but am I thinking about this in a wrong way?

 

[SMAlset]

At 40-50% annual growth, recycling will be important (eventually), but will only be a small part of the equation. JB might have that covered. I believe that's what his startup is focusing on.

Apple disassembles their electronics with some clever automated machinery to reclaim materials for recycling. Will be great if/when Tesla can do the same with their batteries. I assume JB will be the go-to-man for this when it happens.

 

[TradingInvest]

OT (& esoteric & hypothetical & unlikely)

If TSLA split prior to, or after, S&P inclusion would that have any direct effect on how much TSLA the index funds have to buy?

No impact. If TSLA split, index funds will buy twice number of shares.

 

[Mokuzai]

Didn’t call in rich but did stay home today for some powerwall installation. It’ll be finished up tomorrow.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 3 hours ago: More fuel for Tesla? Stock could join the S&P 500 by the end of the year

 

[Prunesquallor]

MarketWatch - 3 hours ago: More fuel for Tesla? Stock could join the S&P 500 by the end of the year

Jeebus. These people are *just now* thinking about this?

I’m glad I have access to “retail investors”.

 

[SMAlset]

And as far as bears go, that guy wasn't that bad. At least he was somewhat humble.

I'd say "stunned". Not humbled.
Robin

i was thinking uncomfortable and resigned. Doesn’t come off as a jerk though.

 

[JustMe]

Random thought. Tesla spent only $1.3bil on CAPEX in 2019 but is enough to fuel 50% growth in 2020.

Elon says Tesla is spending as much as they need. With $6.3bil in the bank and spending less than half of their operating cash flows on CAPEX, wouldn't it be a good idea to dump the rest of the cash to buy back its own stock?

Especially if TSLA doubles in a year or two. It'd be a good investment for them just to buy now at $640 and then sell it back as a capital raise for $1500.

Seems like a good idea but am I thinking about this in a wrong way?

Yes, such a bet could pay off, but there’s risk with such a strategy. The stock price can be fickle and in case of an economic downturn Tesla could be left with less cash, lower stock price and lower revenue.

Tesla may need a good portion of that cash to fund an alien dreadnaught battery factory, the likes of which the world has never seen. I think battery day will boil down to Elon Musk persuading investors that Tesla’s continued success depends on investing billions in an unimaginable and revolutionary battery production facility. He loves big leaps in advances and capability. I expect the plans to be awesome in scope, scale, cost, and market impact.

 

[Sandman1962]

Apple disassembles their electronics with some clever automated machinery to reclaim materials for recycling. Will be great if/when Tesla can do the same with their batteries. I assume JB will be the go-to-man for this when it happens.

I went to a Tesla owners roundtable up in Squaw Valley a couple years ago. The speaker spoke about how essential it was for Tesla to be successful with the Model 3 - check! But he also spoke about the future of Tesla battery recycling... and for what it is worth, he mentioned that the entire process was to be automated and would pay for itself. I hope this happens too.

 

[MC3OZ]

Random thought. Tesla spent only $1.3bil on CAPEX in 2019 but is enough to fuel 50% growth in 2020.

Elon says Tesla is spending as much as they need. With $6.3bil in the bank and spending less than half of their operating cash flows on CAPEX, wouldn't it be a good idea to dump the rest of the cash to buy back its own stock?

Especially if TSLA doubles in a year or two. It'd be a good investment for them just to buy now at $640 and then sell it back as a capital raise for $1500.

Seems like a good idea but am I thinking about this in a wrong way?

Just keep the cash, or pay down debt IMO.....

Reducing debt, or investing the cash in expanded capacity, creates value for shareholders...

When debt is zero and they have no plans for significant Capex, that may be the time to buy back shares.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I assume it is this one Elon is referring to, 5.30 into this, but watch all of it:

Where the RNN at the top is also doing planning. See my old post about this video:

I guess they decided to also add the control to the RNN.

Yes, but be careful since Elon said it was "almost complete". This could mean a year away from showing up in cars. We just don't know.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm about three beers in but...that seems....odd ......for a mod to say.

Onnnnnnnnnnlllllyy thweeeeeeeeeeeeeeee???? Hic.

 

[EVNow]

Random thought. Tesla spent only $1.3bil on CAPEX in 2019 but is enough to fuel 50% growth in 2020.

Elon says Tesla is spending as much as they need. With $6.3bil in the bank and spending less than half of their operating cash flows on CAPEX, wouldn't it be a good idea to dump the rest of the cash to buy back its own stock?

Especially if TSLA doubles in a year or two. It'd be a good investment for them just to buy now at $640 and then sell it back as a capital raise for $1500.

Seems like a good idea but am I thinking about this in a wrong way?

It would be insane to buy back stock. Pretty bad to retire debt early (unless to refinance at lower rate).

Tesla needs all the money they have (and more).
- Auto business is capital heavy - the working capital needs are themselves really big.
- Euro giga won't be as cheap as GF3 - no cheap loans there (though FCA cash will help).
- A macro downturn can happen anytime.
- They need money to expand battery production from 35GWh to 2,000 GWh.

Infact, it might be a good idea to raise money through capital or debt - when they see signs of a macro downturn.