Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LJS22]

Almost at 35 million in volume before noon

 

[Fact Checking]

When VW was in the squeeze, did people _know_ it was a squeeze or think it was a case of valuation becoming what bulls though was right? VW was a unique situation in regards to shorting and float available. TSLA doesn't have that, so I'd think this is likely to stick, though some squeezing effect would seem a likely component in this rise and thus some drop at some point would be likely, though god knows at what price and timeline.

VW squeeze was very different, it was a "technical squeeze" - while Tesla's is a "valuation squeeze".

VW's squeeze happened within 1 day in essence and was largely over after 3 days. And yes, shorts were aware of that they were being squeezed - but their (largely German) brokerage banks that held the shares were apparently in an ... understanding with Porsche what's going on and were squeezing the shorts by buying them in at ridiculous prices.

Shorts sued and after years of litigation lost - that day cost NY hedge funds around 20 billion dollars I think.

Tesla's squeeze is much more dangerous to shorts I believe.

 

[LJS22]

The fact that they couldn't see thru the noise of CT glass breaking, elon smoking weed, etc just makes me think they don't care to do their jobs properly.

It’s been a lot easier to throw money in Tsla knowing how stupid the analyst are about the company. Being on this forum made me feel like I had insider trading knowledge in comparison to some of the idiots that have been evaluating this company

 

[sparcs]

One share can be traded 1000 times in a day, it doesn't mean that's 1000 shares for shorts to cover.

wouldn't borrowing costs for shorts at least go up if shares aren't available?

 

[EV forever]

Well folks, looks like MMD is done for the day. Now we go to $945 today.

my prediction for yesterday was entirely incorrect, but that’s not going to stop me making random predictions

I have a meeting to attend in 3 minutes and I am still at home in my PJs reading this forum obsessively. Talk about lack of productivity

So, looks like the MMD is done for the day. $745 by close?

 

[jerry33]

The fact that they couldn't recognize this until now tells me they are not the sharpest tools in the shed and their analysis is worthless.

As far as I can tell, their analysis is supposed to generate churn because churn is how Wall Street makes money.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

VW squeeze was very different, it was a "technical squeeze" - while Tesla's is a "valuation squeeze".

VW's squeeze happened within 1 day in essence and was largely over after 3 days.

Tesla's squeeze is much more dangerous to shorts I believe.

Yeah people need to stop comparing this to the VW squeeze. We've had multiple days(at least 6-7 days on the ride up from 400/share) now of intraday consolidation at multiple price points with incredibly high volume. The volume is key because it's telling you that many investors have cashed out their gains while new investors are pouring in with higher expectations. The fact that the volume keeps increasing usually means there are more gains to be had.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah people need to stop comparing this to the VW squeeze. We've had multiple days(at least 6-7 days on the ride up from 400/share) now of intraday consolidation at multiple price points with incredibly high volume. The volume is key because it's telling you that many investors have cashed out their gains while new investors are pouring in with higher expectations. The fact that the volume keeps increasing usually means there are more gains to be had.

Also, if we count $177 as the beginning of the TSLA short squeeze of 2019, then we are beyond the level of even of the VW 2008 squeeze - the shorts are in uncharted waters ...

If we count from the ATH breakout of $390 in December, then a VW-magnitude squeeze would last until $1,950 or so.

The TSLA short squeeze of 2013 lasted around 6 months - if we are counting this from December then there's still 4 months to go.

But each short squeeze is different, with different driving factors and different timelines.

 

[juanmedina]

And I am here waiting for Vanguard to approve letting me buy options in my IRA . Is crazy that my IRA which is 100% Tesla stock is valued at almost 50% of my 401k which I been maxing out for while + employer contributions. I been thinking about selling some shares to only cover my initial investment and buy back on the dip.

 

[jepicken]

• Retail investors who bought the dip last year between May and October are still a couple of months away to be able to lock in long term capital gains tax rates.

That's my situation right there. I have some Jan '21 $150 calls purchased at various times throughout the first half of 2019. Just waiting for them to become long-term gains before selling (and buying as many shares as possible with the proceeds, i.e. I don't want to sell out completely, just deleverage somewhat).

 

[Bobfitz1]

Tesla and Elon Musk are shaping up to be the defining story of our generation. We are fortunate to be witnessing it — and participating in it — in real time.

And while anything can happen, it is likely that the story is only just getting started. Musk is still young and full of grit and determination. Global warming is a vast and looming threat. Innovation is accelerating worldwide.

I've posted some time ago we should not forget his 5 sons when considering how much Elon may accomplish in his lifetime.
I.e. there is a good chance that one or more will, after schooling, join Dad at one or more of his companies and be groomed as trusted lieutenants and innovators. His twins are now 15 - 16 years old and the triplets 14. I ran across this Cleantechnica piece that strongly suggests this will come to pass. Musk set up an unconventional school for his sons and children of some employees six years ago. Hmmm, do you suppose reasoning from first principles might be on the curriculum?

First space, then auto—now Elon Musk quietly tinkers with education – Ars Technica

 

[Yonki]

(For fans of TSLA and 30 Rock)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

When VW was in the squeeze, did people _know_ it was a squeeze or think it was a case of valuation becoming what bulls though was right? VW was a unique situation in regards to shorting and float available. TSLA doesn't have that, so I'd think this is likely to stick, though some squeezing effect would seem a likely component in this rise and thus some drop at some point would be likely, though god knows at what price and timeline.

This is a short hug, rather than a squeeze. Institutional longs are just now realizing they need to get in before it's too late. At the very same time TSLA is the most shorted stock out there. Normally retail and early institutional longs would be selling here to take 3x/5x/10x , but clearly that ain't happening.

AND we've just passed the tipping point from fossil fuels to sustainable energy. Tesla is the best and really only pure sustainability play out there.

 

[SMAlset]

Upcoming story segment on Tesla on CNBC, virus top segment. Today has been the most air time I recall being given to Tesla.

 

[LST]

Tesla buying SpaceX in an all stock acquisition. Sovereign funds and some institutional investors know, they’ve been wanting to get in SpaceX at any price. This is their chance. Just a guess

..no fracking way....

Honestly, Elon would IMO never go public with SpaceX when he does not have to. Why should he now ? However, I agree with your opinion that lots of investors, funds etc. would love to invest in SpaceX. I would, if possible in a direct way.

 

[LJS22]

Lots of time left and I think you’d be right if the markets weren’t tanking today and it wasn’t a Friday. We’ll see though.

Not worried though, I’m pulling for some fun on Monday and Tuesday

I told y’all we would have fun on Monday and Tuesday! Is everyone having fun?

 

[bhtooefr]

When VW was in the squeeze, did people _know_ it was a squeeze or think it was a case of valuation becoming what bulls though was right? VW was a unique situation in regards to shorting and float available. TSLA doesn't have that, so I'd think this is likely to stick, though some squeezing effect would seem a likely component in this rise and thus some drop at some point would be likely, though god knows at what price and timeline.

Yes, it was known to be a squeeze - it was caused by Porsche executing a corner, and IIRC announcing their position is what caused the actual squeeze.

Corners are almost impossible in the US nowadays. (I've heard of them being executed against small cap stocks undergoing bankruptcy, but that's about it. Otherwise, you'll punch through the order book if you try to buy fast enough to beat the 5% reporting requirement.)

 

[humbaba]

[snip]

It's wild that the established companies like Toyota are betting on moonshots like solid state cells while Tesla is doing the hard work of engineering the $^*$% out of current technology to make them cheaper. Funny that Tesla takes the low risk path while Toyota is acting like a gambling addict in Vegas.

The stock is still a bargain (long term!).

Honestly, I don't think Toyota is betting on solid state. Instead, they have been using that as an excuse and what they have really been investing in is fuel cells. Most recently, they are finally introducing EVs, but only in those markets (China, Europe) where they are being forced to and only to the extent that they must. That is the very definition of compliance cars.

Contrast this with Tesla where all battery advancements are under consideration, including solid state. Its just that they still don't make any sense for automotive use. I fully expect Tesla to be the first company with automotive solid state if it ever happens.

 

[anthonyj]

..no fracking way....

Honestly, Elon would IMO never go public with SpaceX when he does not have to. Why should he now ? However, I agree with your opinion that lots of investors, funds etc. would love to invest in SpaceX. I would, if possible in a direct way.

Elon:
“Hey xyz, here’s a secret. If you guys buy enough Tesla stock to cause an insane short squeeze, I’ll merge the two companies and you’ll be able to finally have a stake in SpaceX”
It’s such an Elon move. He hates the shorts

 

[ggies07]

View attachment 507822
(For fans of TSLA and 30 Rock)