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  1. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In fact it did both - dropping hard in the first few minutes of the speech (maybe because of Trump's slurring?) before shooting up. I also placed a short-term bet on Put options just before the speech and banked a ~$1k win.
  2. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Video of today's Elon Musk interview at the US Air Force's Air Warfare Symposium: 2020 Air Warfare Symposium Day 2 - Fireside Chat: Elon Musk
  3. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's very useful info to put current IV's in context. Where do you get those historical IV charts?
  4. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Answering my own question, here are my calculations (hopefully I guessed the columns correctly; they weren't labeled in his incorrectly titled "Why I'm Now Shorting Tesla Stock" video): Description Quantity Basis/sh Total basis Price/sh Total Value Gain % Feb 21 '20 $600...
  5. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Funny story about SPYX. I learned about it in November 2018, and decided to swap a portion of my S&P500 index funds in my 401k for it. I sold about $100k of the index in my 401k, transferred the proceeds to my "Brokeragelink" account - part of the 401k that allows trading a larger list of...
  6. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's my situation right there. I have some Jan '21 $150 calls purchased at various times throughout the first half of 2019. Just waiting for them to become long-term gains before selling (and buying as many shares as possible with the proceeds, i.e. I don't want to sell out completely, just...
  7. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Check out my shiny new red badge! On another note, I wonder how our pal Jack Rickard is doing? I recall he bought a ton of short term call options, betting on a short squeeze. They must be worth a fortune if he's still holding.
  8. jepicken

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Understood, but IMO, the current functionality is nowhere near good enough for full self driving on city streets. Do you think Elon just doesn't talk about it because the feature already exists, even though it needs a major leap in performance to be usable?
  9. jepicken

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Has Elon / Tesla talked about recognizing other vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, etc., and predicting their behavior? That seems to me like a more difficult problem, and just as important as recognizing the static environment, if not more so.
  10. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    WTF is going on? Stock is falling off a cliff right now and I can't find any news to explain it...
  11. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm detecting fear from bulls (Tenable, plus less positivity in general from other frequent posters) and greed from bears (Einhorn specifically).
  12. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Reading this thread today I'm reminded of Warren Buffet's advice: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".
  13. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anybody care to guess how TSLA will fare after the announcement? The obvious possibilities - $35k Model 3, Autopilot HW3, Supercharger v3, even a Model S/X refresh - are probably already baked in, so I'm leaning towards a "buy on rumor, sell on news" scenario, unless Elon announces something...
  14. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That never stopped them before...
  15. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What rule did they change? The only thing I found that you could be referencing is that they followed up with subscribers that didn't respond to the initial survey to encourage more responses. But the CR article says that's not a fresh change: For the past few years, CR has been going back to...
  16. jepicken

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They're just following their own long standing rules. Yes it's a bit silly not to recommend the car with the highest owner satisfaction, but CR's rule is to only recommend vehicles with above average reliability, so they would lose some credibility if they broke their rule and kept the Model 3...
  17. jepicken

    Blackvue DR650GW-2CH Install

    Good catch, I hadn't noticed you're from a wrong-side-of-the-road country :). To be perfectly clear, I ran it down the right side of the car.
  18. jepicken

    Blackvue DR650GW-2CH Install

    I installed my own Blackvue dashcam, running the cable to the rear camera down the passenger side headliner, and it doesn't affect my key fob functionality at all. IIRC, other owners have reported similar issues in the past, and the root cause was that the installer had removed the slack in the...
  19. jepicken

    TeslaLog.com - Your hosted Tesla Data Logger - Announcement / Support threads

    I had VisibleTesla set up to check whether my car was plugged in each night at 10pm, and email me if it wasn't. It caught the random times when I had forgotten to plug in when I got home. I also used it to turn on the A/C each weekday ~10 minutes before I usually leave work.
  20. jepicken

    TeslaLog.com - Your hosted Tesla Data Logger - Announcement / Support threads

    I just registered for the site yesterday and so far I'm really impressed, this is awesome work and very valuable. I'd also be willing to pay for it, probably up to $5 a month. Thanks mochouinard!
  21. jepicken

    Battery Range - 3 years in.

    My rated range has already decreased by 12 miles - from 264 to 252 - in less than 9 months of ownership. I charge to 75% or 80% daily, and to 90+% only on road trips (of which I've taken 2). I've used superchargers maybe 10 to 15 times (only on road trips), and charged to 100% maybe 5 or 10...
  22. jepicken

    Soylent

    Note, that review was based on an old formula for powdered Soylent. In the newer versions they use different ingredients that don't cause such gassiness. I've used the newest powdered formula (version 1.5) and the liquid formula (version 2.0), and had no problems with gas whatsoever.
  23. jepicken

    Soylent

    I like Soylent too, and have it for lunch 2 or 3 times a week. The powder isn't as bad as you make it out to be, but the new liquid soylent is indeed much better. More importantly (IMO), it's a lot more convenient since there's no mixing required. Sadly it's also quite a bit more expensive...
  24. jepicken

    First Trip Tips/Suggestions - Phoenix to San Diego

    +1 on the "skip Yuma" part. That supercharger is in a horrible location; there are no decent restaurants or anything else within walking distance. Only stop there if you absolutely need to charge, and don't expect to do anything else while charging. Overall it is a simple trip. Set the nav...
  25. jepicken

    Possible Autosteer Enhancement - Temporary Left or Right Side Lane Preference

    There wouldn't be any special mode; the car would constantly sense the torque on the steering wheel as long as autosteering was active (it already does this part), and respond appropriately when a medium torque was sensed. And just like SomeJoe7777's scheme, "any time autosteer is disengaged...
  26. jepicken

    Possible Autosteer Enhancement - Temporary Left or Right Side Lane Preference

    I like the idea because I also had an issue with the car driving too far to one side of the lane. As for how to control it, why not just gently tug the steering wheel left or right to slowly move the "target position" in that direction? It would need visual feedback in the instrument cluster...
  27. jepicken

    Firmware 7.0

    Installing now. VIN 80322. S85, delivered March 2015, in Chandler, AZ.
  28. jepicken

    Does everyone have trouble opening their charge port door?

    I finally scheduled a service appointment for next week to get this taken care of. In the meantime, my charge port has magically stopped sticking. If my memory is correct, it started working the same day I installed the 2.5.21 firmware update, so maybe that firmware fixed something. My charge...
  29. jepicken

    Does everyone have trouble opening their charge port door?

    3) charge port door is not opening due to a hardware defect
  30. jepicken

    Does everyone have trouble opening their charge port door?

    Oh I'm not planning to put up with it indefinitely, just haven't gotten around to taking it in for service yet. Telsa didn't propose it as a long-term solution, just as a temporary way to get the charge port open so I could clean out the gunk they assumed was making it stick. I haven't called...
  31. jepicken

    Does everyone have trouble opening their charge port door?

    My charge port door rarely opens on command, even though I can clearly hear a click indicating that it's trying to open. The first time it happened was at home, and I just waited a couple hours and tried again, and it worked fine. When it happened again just before a road trip, I called Tesla...
  32. jepicken

    Charge Port problem

    I have this problem as well, and I tried putting a piece of tape over the magnet, but it made the car think the charge port was always open. I would think putting one of those discs would have the same effect, no?
  33. jepicken

    Slacker Radio (US) Streaming - 320 Kbps Bitrate Support

    I picked the uncompressed sample in 4 of the 6 tests, but it was blind (deaf?) luck honestly. I couldn't hear a difference between any of them, except in one test where I thought I could detect the 128k sample. Even that one didn't sound worse than the other two, just slightly different. Also...
  34. jepicken

    Idiot Moments with a Tesla

    I've done that 3 or 4 times already myself, including once today. When you live in Phoenix, where it only rains maybe 15 times a year, it's easy to forget how to control your wipers!
  35. jepicken

    Aftermarket Subwoofer?

    I think you've confused me with someone else. I have standard audio, and I'm looking to add a sub to fill in the low end, but haven't done anything yet. I'm considering the NVX kit just because it's custom made for the Model S and reasonably priced, but it seems like overkill - I don't want...
  36. jepicken

    Inexpensive yacht floor organizer?

    I bought the same thing after seeing it mentioned in an old thread. It works great, but it doesn't quite fit perfectly - I had to bend the cardboard at the front to squeeze it into the well. Doing so actually created a gap that I fit a bottle of hand sanitizer into, so it worked out well...
  37. jepicken

    Aftermarket Subwoofer?

    How do you like it? Did you install it yourself?
  38. jepicken

    Blackvue 650 (Dashcam) Group Buy for $310, including 32 Gig card and Power Magic Pro

    For $310, count me in too. I'm assuming they'll ship anywhere, i.e. it isn't limited to residents of a certain city/region.
  39. jepicken

    Model S telemetry best practices

    I'm interested. Is it open source?
  40. jepicken

    P85D 19" tire pressure recommendation is now 50psi

    My S85, delivered March 28, came with the tires inflated to 50 psi, though the door jam sticker says 45 psi. So the increased pressure is not only for the P85D.
  41. jepicken

    12v battery

    Pardon the dumb question, but how can you tell how much the car is sleeping?
  42. jepicken

    Model S Inside Temp / solid roof vs PANO

    Isn't tinting the windshield illegal in Arizona (except for a stripe along the top)?