Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

I predict Donald Trump mentions Tesla, SpaceX, and/or Elon Musk in the SOTU address tonight. Something along his same lines of needing to protect/support our geniuses. I predict the stock market will like this tomorrow.

Please watch and let us know.

 

[dl003]

Crystal ball is working again.

Looking good so far!

Today's unfinished business brings more pain to shorts

 

[JustSaying]

That is the $10 million and up retirement.



This is what you get for $3 million or less retirement.

Retirement dreams: $3 million is the new $1 million — here’s how to get there

The best book, I ever read(and sometimes reread) to get my retirement money requirement head on straight is "The Number, What do you need for the rest of your Life" by Lee Rosenberg. A brilliant 250 page must read, although it was first published in 2006 copyright it contains timeless field guide into your psyche and money that makes you "think about where you are going and why"
$5.00 used on Amazon.
Good Stuff...

 

[Singer3000]

Thanks for sharing this. Most people talk about gains and not losses. I'm sure many who've used options the past several years have definitely lost money, even as the stock went up.

Congrats to all who've done well, with shares or options. Don't get too greedy, it's okay to take profits. It's also okay to hold and ride the rocket ship.

Yesterday was a good day. Thanks to Mr Musk, I passed a numerically significant value in net worth and my wife had a successful 12 week scan. Life is the best rocket adventure, don’t spend too much of it staring at a ticker!

 

[CanadaEV]

This shows remarkable symmetry to 2013

MODERATOR EDIT: This is an excellent example why I wish all l would post (and use for yourselves, as well, when discussing long term) ONLY log-scale charts. Thank you.

~~Vetinari~~

 

[LJS22]

If Ford had a bad Q4 and has a bleak outlook for this year, just wait until Cybertruck eats into there F-150 sales. I don't understand why Ford isn't shorted more than Tesla....

I don’t understand how they had such a bad Q4? I assume that’s when they sell the most trucks...Elon talked about car manufacturers not making any money on car sales but they really aren’t growing anything as a company, I’m sure service for existing vehicles was good. I hear good things about the new Lincoln’s. With Tesla we can always talk about the growth and ramp ups, but Ford doesn’t seem to be doing anything. I guess they built a prototype electric car, but that won’t factor in until they ramp up.

Anyways these mature auto companies that Tesla is suppose to be scared of cannot be thrilled. Tesla atleast makes money on cars they sell, the more cars ford sells the more they lose.

 

[Unpilot]

I don’t understand how they had such a bad Q4? I assume that’s when they sell the most trucks...Elon talked about car manufacturers not making any money on car sales but they really aren’t growing anything as a company, I’m sure service for existing vehicles was good. I hear good things about the new Lincoln’s. With Tesla we can always talk about the growth and ramp ups, but Ford doesn’t seem to be doing anything. I guess they built a prototype electric car, but that won’t factor in until they ramp up.

Anyways these mature auto companies that Tesla is suppose to be scared of cannot be thrilled. Tesla atleast makes money on cars they sell, the more cars ford sells the more they lose.

What are you talking about...up thread was a post form a car dealer association dude who say's Tesla looses a ton of money on EVERY car!

Their bankwrupt because they can't make it up on volume/S

 

[Singuy]

So, I had a thought on the dip near the end. Last week when I was getting my powerwalls installed I overheard one of the workers mention that a trading day was coming up next week (this week) that allows them to sell their stock. They're only allowed to sell on certain days because they're considered "insiders." No idea what all the rules are around what time of day you can trade or if it could come anywhere near the volume to justify the dip...but I'd image the stock price near $1k would be a very nice and much deserved bonus for many employees.

If this is true, wouldn't companies have rules about max amount of shares that can be sold and will be sold throughout the day? I doubt whoever is in charge thinks dumping 2.5 million shares all at once is a good idea for the stock price.

 

[Ocelot]

can you link this please? i for some reason cannot find it.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Meanwhile, Ford’s earnings were....bad.....really bad.

 

[Curt Renz]

That’s good, 968.99 -> 860, a $108 and 11.2% drop should have shaken out the last batch of weak longs, right?

Indeed, that late-session manipulation designed to trigger a cascade of stop limits should have cleared out almost all of the remaining weak longs. Of course day-traders are a type of weak longs, and they will be speculating every day.

The hedge fund(s) that orchestrated this cascading drop allowed shorts (including themselves) to cover at a lower price and reduced the number of margin calls that will be based on today's closing price. As long as the large group of strong longs remain steadfast in holding their positions, such manipulations can only be temporary blips.

 

[killianss]

It's not a cliche to say almost everyone loses money their first time. I lost over $10,000 on some calls back in 2018 during the summer of the "Short Burn off the Century" tweet saga.

But I never gave up, I learned important things such as what the Greeks are and calculating premium and stuff like that. More than a year later, I took a chance and yeeted my first call the day after earnings.

You have to risk big to win big, and you have to be willing to lose money to make money. I'm not saying to ever do what I did, but you only need to get lucky once right? That's what Warren Buffett once said: "You don't have to do everything right. You just need to not do too many things wrong."

True .. true..

You all will probably laugh at me. if any of you let me know what i did wrong, it would be a well-spent loss.

it was strange to see your option call price goes down when stock price is up by $100.
Granted, it is very short margin (3 days strike at 920 and 895) bought at open. Chickened out on $920 (worry of losing all of my premium) and still keep the $895 call now.


For other noobs like me that want to try options, use spare money that you don't mind to lose.

 

[StealthP3D]

These fools need to cover and get it over with. There's no scenario where they can get out below $750 and a decent enough chance they get margin called at $1200.

It looks to me like the big shorts are trying to cover but are having a hell of a time doing it without creating buying stampedes. The big shorts are well funded so they don't need to worry about margin calls, they just need to get all this debt off their books. Because their underwater short positions are essentially debt to them. Worse, it's debt that is not well defined (in terms of dollar amount). And the only way to get it off their books is to cover (buy massive quantities of TSLA, gradually). They would cover all at once at $950/share if they could do that but they can't. Because that would push it past $1200 (and higher) before they were done covering.

By gradually covering, they continue to find willing sellers as the price walks up. By opening with a huge gap up they find willing sellers. They are literally trying to wring the shares they need out of the market without causing a stampede. Who knows how much covering they have left but the sharp drop at the end of the day was likely engineered by them in order to instill some fear in shareholders. To make them wonder if it's all going to come crashing down. It costs money to engineer a drop like that and it may or may not save them money overall as they continue to cover tomorrow. That fake as fake can be drop is all the proof you need that they have a lot more covering to do.

Make no mistake, they want your TSLA shares. So do a lot of other people. The only question is price. If you are a serious investor and haven't listened to Ron Barron's Squak Box interview from earlier today, do it now. Ron is a thoroughly seasoned no-nonsense investor who manages billions of dollars with a proven record and has direct access to Elon Musk. He shares his thoughts about the current trading price and why he's not even tempted to sell a single share. Says he would be a buyer at current prices if he had more investable capital.

 

[UTMB]

I am waiting to hear what the HECK happened at the end of today.

View attachment 507957

Profit taking?

 

[Cattledog]

So I missed the “buy a commemorative share at 420” phase, but really looking forward to the “buy a commemorative share at 2020” phase

...at 2020, in 2020...

 

[CyberDutchie]

Who out there has the most credible explanation for the gigantic drop at closing? It reeks of manipulation.

I’ve been checking the various “TSLA breaks $900” YouTube videos but none of them tackle this issue.

 

[Darkfox021]

If you are a serious investor and haven't listened to Ron Barron's Squak Box interview from earlier today, do it now. Ron is a thoroughly seasoned no-nonsense investor who manages billions of dollars with a proven record and has direct access to Elon Musk. He shares his thoughts about the current trading price and why he's not even tempted to sell a single share. Says he would be a buyer at current prices if he had more investable capital.

Can you share the link. Lots of posts today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Who out there has the most credible explanation for the gigantic drop at closing? It reeks of manipulation.

I’ve been checking the various “TSLA breaks $900” YouTube videos but none of them tackle this issue.

My related post from just after the market close: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[killianss]

Tesla investor Ron Baron sees $1 trillion in revenue in 10 years — and that won't be the end

@Darkfox021

 

[Curt Renz]

Can you share the link. Lots of posts today.